Originally Posted by
AirTroop
We're all different and all sports are different. I cannot cap college football at all because there are so many situational things to bring into consideration (i.e., locker room material, rivalries, inconsistencies and so many other items). In the NFL, these are professionals and the stats themselves make up MUCH more - maybe around 80% - of the formula versus, I'm guessing, the opposite of the college game. Professional football players are more likely to act like a professional in any genre, which means they are more likely to shrug off items that would affect a college kid.
You are correct that we who are successful cappers - REAL cappers who put in REAL hours will never give away all of our secrets but I'll give you a few things I keep focused upon before kickoff each week. I assign a certain pt-partial-pt value on each -- fluidly:
*Weather reports -
*Offensive stats -
*Defensive stats -
*Injuries (I assign a pt/partial pt value to each player & position using many variables) -
*Ticket sales for home team - blackouts, empty home stadium equals very little advantage for home team -
*The referee team and their tendencies -
*Insider team blogs; lotsa good info in those (i.e., inner disruptions, disputes, individual leadership, etc.) -
*Travel from East to West, West to East, # of time zones, etc. Example: is the visiting team playing at a time they're used to having their 2nd cup of coffee and morning donut? -
*Stats, stats, STATS!!! Up to you to decide... all cappers use different ones to different degrees -
*The line movements and where the public is leaning... in general, I feel I'm better at winning than the general public is -
*Different PK? Different long-snapper? Different HOLDER even? All VERY important things to pay attention to -
Things I largely ignore or pay very SMALL attention to (maybe somewhere around 15-20% at most):
*Trends ATS; W-L records (They're PROS! Any given Sunday!); anything from prior years and most stats from the first few games... no team is the same from year to year -
*Locker room crap -- unless it's REALLY bad (i.e., all the NYJ "guarantees" -- they WERE a pt/partial-pt factor in many gms!) -
*Winning & losing streaks - they're important SOMETIMES but not as important as most feel they are -
Hope this gives some insight - obviously I've not given all my "secrets" but I most certainly don't use a spreadsheet to make my picks - I pretty much use a pen, a calculator and 10 sheets of paper (front AND back) and read, read, READ - making adjustments to my line all week long. It could go from +1.7 to +1.9 from one of these factors & I make personal notes for each one so if circumstances change I can go back. Notice no .5's? That's because I don't round up or down to a .5 or a whole number until my capping is finished for the week. Example: Center's injured and he's a Pro Bowler; taking his place is a rookie -- maybe that's worth a .2 pt adjustment one way or the other depending upon what I know about that rookie, see?
Sounds like a lot of work, huh? Well, I make a lot of money during the NFL season and it's worth the 40-60 hours + or - to me, PLUS I have the luxury of actually having the hours to spend doing it, which is why it's a valuable service to offer to those who don't... as long as you are straight up about it.
Hope this helps a bit :-)