This is a solid bet. If Fed wins, he'll cover the -1.5. Full match price -130. Fed is serving like a demon. Has not been broken in Dubai and has not faced a BP in his last 3 matches. 4 players played in Dubai.... and just 0/2 BP's against. Those 2 BP's were against Llodra where he let his foot off the gas after demolishing Llodra 6-0 in the first set.
In last 8 matches he's been broken to the tune of 2/16. In 5 of those last 8 matches he has not faced a single break point. He is in blistering form. Had he not faced Nadal, he would've beaten Djokovic in the AO final and he would be on a ridiculous tear that dates back to the end of the year.
Djok was really shit all week and wasn't 100% there. Credit to Murray for the win, but he did not beat a peak Djoker. Moreover, Murray was broken 5 times in 13 chances against Berrer in the first round here. And he gave up 8 chances against Berdych.
Fed has won something like 30 of the last 31 1st sets of the matches he has played in. Expect him to start strong and force Murray to come from behind and win 2-1 sets. Don't think that will happen.
This basically is Federer at full force at -101.
6. FEDERER -1.5 Games > MURRAY, (-101)