1. #1
    wtf
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    the impending collapse of gold

    shocking stats here boys, gold is not a long term play



    Gold’s ‘Absurd’ Price Makes Stocks Look Cheap: Chart of the Day

    Q





    Play Video

    Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Nader Naeimi, a Sydney-based strategist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., talks about the outlook for Asian equities and gold. Naeimi speaks with John Dawson on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)



    U.S. stocks are cheap and will outperform gold as bullion prices are poised to fall from “absurd” levels, according to Mirae Asset Securities Co.
    The CHART OF THE DAY shows the price spread between the SPDR Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund that tracks bullion, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, a fund which mimics the performance of the 30 stocks in the index. The premium widened by the most since the fund for the precious metal was started in November 2004.
    Gold surged to an all-time high above $1,900 an ounce last week, pushing the value of bullion to $9.1 trillion based on cumulative supply, or about 2.75 times the market capitalization of companies in the Dow index, said John Wadle, head of regional banks research at the Hong Kong unit of Mirae Asset. Companies in the U.S. equities gauge have an average dividend yield of 2.7 percent and trade at 11.3 times estimated earnings as of Aug. 25, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
    “Gold is now a bubble compared with U.S. blue-chip stocks,” Wadle said in an e-mail in response to questions from Bloomberg. U.S. equities are “massively undervalued” based on future dividend yields of more than 3 percent, compared with no investment yields and storage costs associated with gold, he said in a report. Billionaire George Soros cut his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust this year as prices rallied, while Paulson & Co., the hedge fund run by John Paulson, remained the largest holder, according to regulatory filings this month.
    Investors can get a 130 percent return by investing in Dow stocks over the next two decades even if earnings rise by 2 percent under a deflationary scenario, Wadle said. To match this performance, gold prices would need to rise to $4,400 an ounce and the total value of bullion must surge to $27.6 trillion based on current and future supply, he said.
    “This is absurd because it would represent two times the U.S.’s current gross domestic product and more than twice the current value of all U.S. equities,” he said. “The gold price is an absurdity waiting to correct.”
    --Irene Shen, Zhang Shidong. With assistance from Richard Dobson. Editors: Allen Wan, Shiyin Chen
    To contact the reporter on this story: Irene Shen in Shanghai at ishen4@bloomberg.net
    To contact the editor responsible for this story: Darren Boey at dboey@bloomberg.net
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  2. #2
    Dirty Sanchez
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    When you start seeing all of those TV commericials, and hearing the radio ads....it's time to run. All of the sharps/experts have already made their cash and they're trying to sucker the saps to drive the price even farther before the leap off the train. Only fools would be getting into the Gold market right now

  3. #3
    wantitall4moi
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    it got to 1905 sometime last week then a bunch of sell off from somewhere and it plummeted to 1700, it has creeped back up some since that was the spot for people who were too late the first go around, to think they were getting a deal.

    The fleecing of the foolish.

  4. #4
    topgame85
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    How can the market perform this well under Obama? Must be some confidence in him after all......

  5. #5
    wtf
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dirty Sanchez View Post
    When you start seeing all of those TV commericials, and hearing the radio ads....it's time to run. All of the sharps/experts have already made their cash and they're trying to sucker the saps to drive the price even farther before the leap off the train. Only fools would be getting into the Gold market right now

    do you remember about ten years ago when the central banks sold almost all of their gold when it was around 300 bucks?

    now they want to get back in !!!

    sure sign to dump

  6. #6
    chemicalbrother
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    if gold drops, that mean inflation and the nominal price of everything that i have to buy dropped too.


  7. #7
    chemicalbrother
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    and while i admit the world wasn't ready for $2,000/oz gold, it may not have a choice soon.

  8. #8
    sportsfanatic
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    deleted
    Last edited by sportsfanatic; 08-29-11 at 08:37 PM.

  9. #9
    Emily_Haines
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    Quote Originally Posted by topgame85 View Post
    How can the market perform this well under Obama? Must be some confidence in him after all......
    The market is totally rigged. With 0% interests rates on savings accounts people have to invest in the market in order to get a bigger return. They will all eventually get hurt bad as the white shoe boys fleece them.

  10. #10
    wildcat2011
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    when people start saying banks are ok to invest in, you better buy more gold. Because we got here becuase of the greed of banks to begin with. This wont go away it only get worse..

  11. #11
    wildcat2011
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    its a 3 player race, OIL, GOLD, BANKS somebody has to fall!

  12. #12
    gauchojake
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    business as usual folks


    here's a heads up


    commodities will tank soon, banks will rebound, and the companies that make lots of money pay dividends

    also zsl


    fin

  13. #13
    wildcat2011
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    banks will not rebound while oil and gold are still running high. just saying..

  14. #14
    LineCle
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    Gold is in for long term play. but correction may take place.

  15. #15
    jjgold
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    Bank stocks still a good play

    BkofAma has to go up eventually

  16. #16
    forloveofthegame
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dirty Sanchez View Post
    When you start seeing all of those TV commericials, and hearing the radio ads....it's time to run. All of the sharps/experts have already made their cash and they're trying to sucker the saps to drive the price even farther before the leap off the train. Only fools would be getting into the Gold market right now
    your clueless dollar is in the shitter so unless that magically comes up gold will keep steadily going up. with the feds running money like candy sure that wont happen any time soon. stick to being a degen dude

  17. #17
    wtf
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    another view;
    SUNDAY, AUGUST 28, 2011

    The Idea That Gold Is In A Bubble Is Idiotic

    And the promoters of this idea are complete morons or completely corrupt. This morning I heard an ad on the radio by an outfit called Empire Diamond explaining that they wanted to pay the best price in the market to by your gold and silver in any form (i.e. jewelry, silverware, junk, etc). Their tagline was "Don't wait for the price of gold to drop before you sell." LOL. Then I open the front section of the Denver Post and the center pages featured a full-color ad from The Great Estate Roadshow, which will be set up in 4 locations around Denver all next week and it wants to buy any and all scraps of gold/silver that you want to sell them. The ad was like a Playboy centerfold featuring a very detailed reproduction of all the items the outfit will buy. This ad is not cheap and neither is the event being staged, meaning that some outfit is spending a LOT of money to try and coax the public into unloading their gold and silver in any form. The question is, who wants to buy it so badly? It also indcates that public is still selling a lot of gold and silver and has a lot left to sell. That is not the sign of an asset in an investment bubble.

    Every time I turn on the news media or open the newspaper I encounter "experts" and gold/silver buyers counselling the public that price of gold is going to fall. They never ever suggest that the price might actually go up. Contrast this with the internet/tech stock bubble and then the subsequent catastrophic housing bubble: how many promoters were telling the public that the price of these "investments" could actually drop?

    It never ceases to amaze me the extent to which profit-seekers will go to in order to separate the public the from their money. For anyone questioning the strength and longevity of the gold bull, I ask you to consider that the marquee indicator of an investment product in the peak frenzy of a bubble is the endless aggressive promotion to seduce YOU into buying THEIRinvestment - not THEM seducing YOU to sell them your's. Some things will never change and snake-oil salesmen fleecing the public in one way or another is one them and the idea that an investment can be considered a "bubble" when the public is still being aggressively seduced to sell is another.

    That so few of people in this country understand why gold and silver are doing what they are doing further adds to the basic fundamental factors pushing the precious metals higher. This is reinforced by the fact that so few large institutional investors understand the dynamics driving metals higher and fiat currencies lower. In fact, I saw one "expert" mutual fund manager recommend getting long the dollar last week. Next time you hear that gold and mining stocks have peaked and the bubble has popped, open up the quarterly report from your favorite mutual fund and see what percent of the fund is invested in mining stocks. I would bet it has no exposure. Until you see your mutual fund investments heavily invested in precious metals and mining stocks, you can be assured that the bull market in this sector has a long way to go.
    POSTED BY DAVE IN DENVER AT






  18. #18
    forloveofthegame
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    Quote Originally Posted by wtf View Post

    That so few of people in this country understand why gold and silver are doing what they are doing further adds to the basic fundamental factors pushing the precious metals higher. This is reinforced by the fact that so few large institutional investors understand the dynamics driving metals higher and fiat currencies lower. In fact, I saw one "expert" mutual fund manager recommend getting long the dollar last week. Next time you hear that gold and mining stocks have peaked and the bubble has popped, open up the quarterly report from your favorite mutual fund and see what percent of the fund is invested in mining stocks. I would bet it has no exposure. Until you see your mutual fund investments heavily invested in precious metals and mining stocks, you can be assured that the bull market in this sector has a long way to go.
    POSTED BY DAVE IN DENVER AT





    good read

  19. #19
    jjgold
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    I say Gold holds fairly strong for another 6 months
    Dollar is just too weak

  20. #20
    jarvol
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    People have been calling for the end of the 11 year gold bull market for about 8 years now.

  21. #21
    wildcat2011
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    See the problem with gold is that is too slow for the currency idea. Altho if it get bad enough they would find a way to speed up the process.

  22. #22
    SHADYLANKY
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    Quote Originally Posted by wtf View Post
    another view;
    SUNDAY, AUGUST 28, 2011

    The Idea That Gold Is In A Bubble Is Idiotic

    And the promoters of this idea are complete morons or completely corrupt. This morning I heard an ad on the radio by an outfit called Empire Diamond explaining that they wanted to pay the best price in the market to by your gold and silver in any form (i.e. jewelry, silverware, junk, etc). Their tagline was "Don't wait for the price of gold to drop before you sell." LOL. Then I open the front section of the Denver Post and the center pages featured a full-color ad from The Great Estate Roadshow, which will be set up in 4 locations around Denver all next week and it wants to buy any and all scraps of gold/silver that you want to sell them. The ad was like a Playboy centerfold featuring a very detailed reproduction of all the items the outfit will buy. This ad is not cheap and neither is the event being staged, meaning that some outfit is spending a LOT of money to try and coax the public into unloading their gold and silver in any form. The question is, who wants to buy it so badly? It also indcates that public is still selling a lot of gold and silver and has a lot left to sell. That is not the sign of an asset in an investment bubble.

    Every time I turn on the news media or open the newspaper I encounter "experts" and gold/silver buyers counselling the public that price of gold is going to fall. They never ever suggest that the price might actually go up. Contrast this with the internet/tech stock bubble and then the subsequent catastrophic housing bubble: how many promoters were telling the public that the price of these "investments" could actually drop?

    It never ceases to amaze me the extent to which profit-seekers will go to in order to separate the public the from their money. For anyone questioning the strength and longevity of the gold bull, I ask you to consider that the marquee indicator of an investment product in the peak frenzy of a bubble is the endless aggressive promotion to seduce YOU into buying THEIRinvestment - not THEM seducing YOU to sell them your's. Some things will never change and snake-oil salesmen fleecing the public in one way or another is one them and the idea that an investment can be considered a "bubble" when the public is still being aggressively seduced to sell is another.

    That so few of people in this country understand why gold and silver are doing what they are doing further adds to the basic fundamental factors pushing the precious metals higher. This is reinforced by the fact that so few large institutional investors understand the dynamics driving metals higher and fiat currencies lower. In fact, I saw one "expert" mutual fund manager recommend getting long the dollar last week. Next time you hear that gold and mining stocks have peaked and the bubble has popped, open up the quarterly report from your favorite mutual fund and see what percent of the fund is invested in mining stocks. I would bet it has no exposure. Until you see your mutual fund investments heavily invested in precious metals and mining stocks, you can be assured that the bull market in this sector has a long way to go.
    POSTED BY DAVE IN DENVER AT





    The guy who wrote this is an idiot. Companies have been doing this for 20-30 years. Lippincott LLC was really big in it in the 90's. They ran those ads all over. I saw them regularly out west. Rent a hotel room or a conference room and pay like 50-60% of melt for junk gold/silver and then sell it for 95-97% of melt. If you take any coins that have numismatic value you will get really ripped off. They will just buy it like scrap. Same thing for old pocket watches,gems,etc. They rip people off, that is how they can afford those ads. Lippincott LLC did a gold kit (like cash for gold) and have lots of complaints on the net. All Lippincott LLC and similar companies do is to simply buy it cheap and sell it fast. There is no investing or secret knowledge of the market.

  23. #23
    HenryHill
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    Anyone who thinks the value of gold will collapse is a retard who doesn't understand what is taking place with the U.S./Global economic system. With what is happening with the European banking and debt crisis combined with the myriad of problems within the U.S. (rampant inflation/printing of money, tens of trillions ind debt, etc etc etc) and then combine that with the wild economic growth and demand coming from china and india, Gold will probably be at $2,100 by the end of this year and $5,000 in the nect 5 years.

    Every single one of the things I just mentioned are indisputable facts that are LONG TERM FACTORS/ISSUES that won't change for decades to come.

    People still dont get what gold is. You don't invest in gold to turn out profits. You invest in gold to preserve your wealth and buying power over the long term. People need to realize that it's not that gold is increasing in value...it's the dollar decreasing in value. Gold doesn't do anything, it's just fkn gold. Its the paper with green paint all over it that we call "money" thats decreeasing in value by the day, and they aint changin anytime soon.
    Nomination(s):
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  24. #24
    SHADYLANKY
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    I personally wouldn't invest in silver/gold right now. I do think it is overvalued. Bubble? That might be a stretch.

  25. #25
    iifold
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    Money is just paper...

    Gold is just a heavy metal...

    But LAND is something that EVERYONE needs, and if you factor in the increasing population of the Earth it is becoming more of a necessity every day...

    Buy a piece of this planet people, look for good weather, little to no natural disasters, and no ghetto's or nuckleheads...

    You're Welcome

  26. #26
    Slainte
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    I need to take a break from this forum, the very first thought when i read the title was about jjgold

  27. #27
    BookiesBernanke
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    First it was "only the crazies are investing in Gold as an alternative to markets"

    Now its "gold is overvalued, its a bubble, etc"

    HAHAHHA

    Here is a tip: Dont take tips from anyone, no one knows what the Fukk is going to happen

  28. #28
    (Reyes)
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Bank stocks still a good play

    BkofAma has to go up eventually
    they have so many absurd loan it just doesn't make any sense

  29. #29
    (Reyes)
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    Quote Originally Posted by BookiesBernanke View Post

    Here is a tip: Dont take tips from anyone, no one knows what the Fukk is going to happen

  30. #30
    wildcat2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by HenryHill View Post
    Anyone who thinks the value of gold will collapse is a retard who doesn't understand what is taking place with the U.S./Global economic system. With what is happening with the European banking and debt crisis combined with the myriad of problems within the U.S. (rampant inflation/printing of money, tens of trillions ind debt, etc etc etc) and then combine that with the wild economic growth and demand coming from china and india, Gold will probably be at $2,100 by the end of this year and $5,000 in the nect 5 years.

    Every single one of the things I just mentioned are indisputable facts that are LONG TERM FACTORS/ISSUES that won't change for decades to come.

    People still dont get what gold is. You don't invest in gold to turn out profits. You invest in gold to preserve your wealth and buying power over the long term. People need to realize that it's not that gold is increasing in value...it's the dollar decreasing in value. Gold doesn't do anything, it's just fkn gold. Its the paper with green paint all over it that we call "money" thats decreeasing in value by the day, and they aint changin anytime soon.
    Aye I agree w/ your post, but Better not own papper gold..Need to have it your safe deposit box.

  31. #31
    HenryHill
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    Quote Originally Posted by wildcat2011 View Post
    Aye I agree w/ your post, but Better not own papper gold..Need to have it your safe deposit box.
    Oh, I couldn't agree more you are spot on. There are wild rumors floating around that both the GLD and SLV etfs don't hold as much gold/silver as they claim. It's all about taking physical delivery of your gold and silver, like me.

    You guys can say whatever you want but I'm right. I work for one of the largest precious metals investment firms in the world. I know what I'm talking about.

  32. #32
    wtf
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    as jj noted in the medium term it must continue to go up

    but if the usa starts a strong dollar policy and actually back it up, it will trend down

  33. #33
    ElCapitan
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    Sold almost all my GLD today. I think it's as high as it's gonna get. Bought it in 2009 at $112 and sold today at $178. Locked up the profit and will move on to another growth opportunity.

    To guys in the market: lock up those profits and move on to others. No such thing as long term at this point.

  34. #34
    play2winit
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    Gold is going up again tomorrow after the Jobs talk argument date.

  35. #35
    wildcat2011
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    yup +$46

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