Witch one did you lose?
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Witch one did you lose?
Tennessee (-220) 2.2 to win 1:D
St Johns (-155) 1.55 to win 1:duh:
Arizona St (-120) 1.2 to win 1:D
+.45 on the night. +23.45 since the start of this system (February 12th 2011)
I see Idaho won by 3. Nice hit man! :cheers:Have you looked into web queries?
Yeah I see that now. If I had run the numbers right before gametime St Johns wouldn't have been a play with that line movement. More often than not, these favorites it spits out are on the right side of the line movements. :highfive:
Yep. +.45 is better than nothing. :yes:
i have not. today is the first day ive gotten off work in 4 weeks. its been super busy but ill check it out soon. still have a bunch of stuff to do but id like to do that for baseball for sure
I hate friday games. Note the to win # for cornell equals the at risk # for Columbia
5dimes:
Cornell (-260) 2.6 to win 1
Columbia (-138) 1 to win .7246
Gonna start tracking expected value for fun:
E(x) = -.01 units
man i just googled it. what in the hell. you think i graduated from NASA! :lmao:
I don't like have an expected loss... gonna try and play around with unit sizes to get it into the positive
edit for shag: its not that bad. download openoffice if you have a shitty excel version.
are you planning on doing this for baseball?
o didnt know Shiva had a system for it. that works. i did a lot of following people and touts last year and did alright but as im becoming a little bit better at this gambling thing i think i might make even more of my own picks this year.
its been going pretty well since i quit worrying about the spread
like i said i lost 900 on Texas and have had a couple other huge losers. they werent the first and they damn sure wont be the last. but im going to keep playing them because they win 80% of the time and even higher with some decent homework
i hope thats not spos to be common knowledge in the gambling world cause its news to me
thanks for the formulas romanov. your system has been doing pretty damn well so far.
Lol well use it now. If you see a ML that says a team only wins 55% of the time and you think they win 3/4, you have to ask yourself why vegas thinks the underdog is so much better than you do.
thank you man. gonna post a decimal odds and american odds example in a minute
so right now on pinnacle cornell is -283 and brown is +250
283/(283+100) = .7389
100/(250+100) = .2857
.7389+.2857 = 1.0246
probabilities have to = 1 so...
.7389/ 1.0246 = .7212 = Cornell has a 72% probability to win the game (according to Pinnacle)
.2857/1.0246 = .2788 = Brown has a 28% probability to win the game (according to pinnacle)
now for decimal odds (an easier way). for the first part, all we do instead of adding the 100's and stuff is plug the given decimal odds into 1/x
cornel's decimal odds = 1.353
browns = 3.5
so...
1/1.353 = .739
1/3.5 = .2857
add em up = .739+.2857 = 1.0247
and divide
.739/1.0247 = Cornell's prob = .7212 = 72% win
.2857/1.0247 = .2788 = 28%
Obviously you don't need to do both the dog and fav because you just use the rule (1-P) = P' to get the opposing probability
BOL
credit goes to Ganchrow
you got a late night winner?
I thought you were dead in the water tonight but Cornell can up with the win and Columbia is now in OT (after being down by 10+ pts). Great job!
Second Overtime
Sorry. Nothing man.
Cornell came through but Columbia died out. I suck at Fridays. I never play small-time schools except for friday (because no big schools play on friday) and I never seem to do as well. At least I didn't lose any tonight. Came out exactly even. Hopefully if you tailed you tailed the right unit sizes and came out +/- 0 as well.
See you in the morning.
Played your two picks along with GGRIF82's Elon pick for a 2-1 record for the night. I'll take it for a Friday night. Usually Fridays and Sundays are bad for me. Thanks for the plays. I'm loving your system.....look forward to your plays today.
:an_clap:
Let me know about the PAC10 POM fits brother !
gl today
Good Luck Today Romanov
If you have the time, what do you think?
12:00 PM ET Duquesne Dukes, +3.5
1:30 PM ET Georgia Bulldogs, +4.5
2:00 PM ET Rhode Island Rams, +1
8:00 PM ET North Carolina Tar Heels, M/L
10:00 PM ET Colorado State Rams, +12
Was having trouble with my computer. Doin the plays right now.
3/5 plays. Let the Shit hit the fan:
Kansas State (-1250) 12.5 to win 1
Michigan State (+110) .91 to win 1
UCONN (-145) 1.45 to win 1
Mississippi St (-200) 2 to win 1
Oklahoma (-105) 1.05 to win 1
North Carolina (-115) 1.15 to win 1
Colorado (-185) 1.85 to win 1
UCLA (-130) 1.3 to win 1
Be wary if you tail. I have a feeling I am going to go up in flames today. Line movement is bad on a lot of these games. Shiva, I like UNC moneyline. George +4.5 not bad either but is it Alabama's senior day?
It is - but we only have 1 senior (Hines) I'd be weary going against Bama at home, they play pretty strong at home...
DOes UCLA fit the POM system ?
Mmk. Hopefully shiva sees that. I'm not playing it but he was considering it. Thanks
As of now. I locked it in because I'm not going to be around my computer at the UCLA gametime. If UCLA gets bet down to being a pk or not favored I would stay away
I'm on UCLA ML for ten units (praying)