Good luck EX, was going to suggest Mets TT in other thread, good buy. I hope you sweep.
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Good luck EX, was going to suggest Mets TT in other thread, good buy. I hope you sweep.
These props at Bkmkr have no value. Looks like I need another out for those. It continues to be a struggle to get picks out...I might have to reneg on my initial plan and try something else. Weekend picks will happen as I have down time, but working 75 hours during the week makes it nearly impossible to get this done. Sorry guys...
4/5
probably going to sit today out. a bunch of #4/#5 starters with no in-season data to work with is going to be pretty tough for me to 'cap.
Something of note, the STL/SF line has been going pretty haywire IMO. Westbrook is the better SP and SF is Belt not at 100% doesn't help yet the line has moved 10c+ already, in my view, the wrong direction.
I agree on the SF game, however it's a big day at the park with ceremonies, and World Series celebrations. If it wasn't for that I would be all over St. Louis. Perception on Zito is also high right now. I believe he regresses this year.
Plays for tomorrow, 4/6:
Bet Line Risk To Win CIN -105 $125.00 $119.05 BOS 130 $85.00 $110.50 LAA 110 $85.00 $93.50 MIN 130 $100.00 $130.00 OAK -140 $300.00 $214.29 CLE 155 $175.00 $271.25 MIA 150 $125.00 $187.50 CHC 145 $250.00 $362.50 SD 135 $110.00 $148.50
:shades: <---putting on some sleep shades for the next 13 hours or so (no joke).
Wake me up when the Cubs are in 1st place, ok? :tongue0015: GOOD LUCK, ALL! :clover:
4/6
Nym TT o3.5 -125 ~ 0.5u
KC TT u3.5 +100 ~ 0.4u
KC @ Phi u8.5 +100 ~ 0.25u
Oak @ Hou u8 +100 ~ 0.5u
Cle @ TB o8 +101 ~ 0.6u
I'm on the Mets over, just found a -115. Good luck today. I'm looking at the Houston under as wel.
Nice buy on Phi under.
Attachment 55582
no offense to you Meb, just saw you were on Miami.
Ran through tomorrow's card before heading out for the night. Could be the biggest card of my life if I end up playing everything.
4/7
Oak @ Hou u8 -115 ~ 0.3u
Oak -151 ~ 0.5u
Ari -104 ~ 0.5u
leans
Hou TTu3
Sea @ Chw o7 (smaller)
Cle @ TB u7
Cle TTu3
Tor -120 (waiting on Joey Bats status)
Det TTo3.5
Phi -130
Min TTo4 (max price -115)
Chc (hoping for +130)
Stl +129
Col TTo4.5 (max price -115)
That's a potential 14 plays. we'll see how lines move and get book some of these tomorrow
Rays have left the bases loaded 3 times today... :banghead:
Waiting for a better line in the toronto game. Besides that, this is my final card
4/7
Oak @ Hou u8 -115 ~ 0.3u
Oak -151 ~ 0.5u
Ari -104 ~ 0.5u
Ari -105 ~ 0.3u
Ari -1.5 +165 ~ 0.5u
Stl +120 ~ 0.5u
Det TTo4 -105 ~ 0.4u
Phi -114 ~ 0.5u
Chc FF +125 ~ 0.5u
Cle @ TB u7 -120 ~ 0.5u
Final card... added Tor and Pit
4/7
Oak @ Hou u8 -115 ~ 0.3u
Oak -151 ~ 0.5u
Ari -104 ~ 0.5u
Ari -105 ~ 0.3u
Ari -1.5 +165 ~ 0.5u
Stl +120 ~ 0.5u
Det TTo4 -105 ~ 0.4u
Phi -114 ~ 0.5u
Chc FF +125 ~ 0.5u
Cle @ TB u7 -120 ~ 0.5u
Tor -117 ~ 0.5u
Pit +136 ~ 0.5u
Good luck EX, I'm on Det TT over 4. I hope you sweep.
Who needs Marmol? samardzija blows his own 5th inning lead and the cubs have blown two straight games for me
That walk to the pitcher in the Cub's game in the 5th sucked. I'm on Arizona ML and RRL, Pitt and Cards with you. Let's finish strong.
4/8
Bal @ Bos - I like Buchholz this year, but -150 is a bit too much to lay
Nyy @ Cle - I wouldn't mind fading Ubaldo, but Kuroda told media that he won't be 100%. probably pass unless I get a better read for how hurt kuroda is
Min @ KC - Royals should be without Holland and Herrera today after back to back outings. Ervin and Correia is probably an even SP matchup with 4.5 ERAs. Hitters are close enough that this should be a tossup. Line looks to be going up for minny, but I don't see any reason it should continue in said pattern. I'm going to jump on it now. Min +133 ~ 0.5u***
Cin @ StL - Pitching might be a tad in the reds favor, hitters a tad in favor of the Cardinals after accounting for L/R SP's. Broxton probably unavailable, but that shouldn't really matter as the rest of their pen is solid and chapman can probably go an inning+ if needed after getting somewhat stretched out in spring. i'll lean STL in this game, but the line is already shaded that way, so no play.
I'll be back later for the night games
*** went to place the Twins bet and the line was up to +137 at heritage. I'm going to wait for lineups before doing anything as I want to look into what is causing this movement.
EDIT: the line dropped to +128 at 5d and +136 @ Heritage. I just booked MIN +136 for 0.5u
4/8 night games
NYM @ Phi - Harvey vs halladay is a pretty good matchup. Halladay being 'hurt' is a big question mark for Philly, and for that reason I can't fathom any reason to back the phillies. Halladay gave up a boatload of runs last start, so expecting him to matchup against the likely rookie pitcher of the year with nasty stuff is asking a bit too much. Only thing to worry about here is that the phillies are throwing a bunch of lefties at Harvey, but Harvey has a decent changeup, so he should be able to deal with this. If halladay struggles, the offensive difference between the two teams shouldn't really matter. I'm gonig to continue to fade Doc until he shows some life, so i played Mets FF +101 ~ 0.5u. I'd still probably play -107 at 5dimes. Full game shouldn't be that dangerous at +odds, but I'll avoid BP's for this as even if old Doc shows up, Harvey should eb able to keep them in the game
Atl @ Mia - Maholm has really turned a corner since last year, and took yet another step forward once getting to atlanta. I usually don't lay chalk this big, but Atlanta deserves it today. Although Slowey is a FB pitcher and is still pitching in a big park, but he doesn't really strike anyone out, which is the weakness of Atlanta. I'm playing a small amount on the -1 RL. ATL -1 -131 ~ 0.3u
Would be my run of luck that Atlanta gives up a run in the 9th. Wouldn't mind if kimbrel shuts the door here
Nice afternoon EX. I'm looking at Col TT over tomorrow.
Or Col FF. Houston FF might be a good buy. Brandon Maurer was less than stellar in his debut. He appeared to throw waaay too many pitches over the heart of the plate. He might get teed up by Houston's few hitters with power. Anyway my 3 locals don't have lines on these props yet so I need to wait till morning.
I like your thoughts on Colorado. I took Oak +147 and Col +143 last night before I went to sleep. Also took Miami +RL -107 and ML +165. Hoping for a few dogs to go barkin' tomorrow
Possibly playing Philly TTover4 if reasonable as well as cleveland if they get up to +120. Will check in closer to gametime as I'll be diligently working most of the day
Well that was a bit of a scare. put my entire BR at 5d on the minny/kc game to scalp with bovada and my computer froze before i could get on the other side at bovada. Thank goodness for smartphones.
well hell.... i hope Minnesota doesn't win today. I don't want all that kind of money at bovada... Crap, that wasn't worth $15
I hope you bought some Phil's TT, I went to buy some several times and pulled back, fuk. Go Rockies.
I laid of off philly like a little b!tch. I read a few scouting reports on Gee and a lot of people were really high on him breaking out. I wanted to fade him based on his velocity being down a few mph and backed off. Checking mlb today, i saw 4 or 5 of probably 20 FB's touch 90. I'll double check fangraphs later this week, but assuming no news on him and i don't read a fg/espn article on his velo being down, he's on my fade list until he proves otherwise. I'll look into other fb velo decliners this weekend when all Sp's get their second start in and see who's struggling
Put a .5 on Houston over 3 -120. I wanted -110, but couldn't find it. Regarding Gee, it's so early in the season it's better to be more conservative then drop the hammer as more data builds.
Got Min +140, closed +138 = beat closer by 2c
Got Mia ML +165, closed +160 = beat closer by 5c
Got Mia RL -107, closed -112 = beat closer by 5c
Got Oak +147, closed +136 = beat closer by 11c
Got Col +143, closed +117 = beat closer by 26c
Pretty happy with my bets today no matter how they turn out.