will keep up w you men. add what i can as we go along. i like this. obviously have to watch the game tho and todays other agenda keeps me away. good luck (good strategy) to all users.
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will keep up w you men. add what i can as we go along. i like this. obviously have to watch the game tho and todays other agenda keeps me away. good luck (good strategy) to all users.
I am going to back test this.... probably go back five seasons and I will only be counting
12+..... Anyone object or see any fallacy with just testing those results as plays under 12 we aren't going to play by what I can gather....
I'll try to rapid fire the plays out at halftime. BOL
I am guessing that the Vikings are a play for this at +6.5 2nd half is that right?
San Francisco @ Minnesota
Full Game odds were 49'ers -7 and 43
At the half, Vikings lead 17-3
2H lines should be 49'ers -21 and 23
2H lines are 49'ers -7 and 21
Thus we have
Vikings +7 2H as a play
Minnesota +6.5
BEt US got +7.5
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Full Game odds were Colts -3 and 42
At the half, Colts winning 14-3
2H lines should be Jags -8 and 25
2H lines are PK and 21
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!
Detroit @ Tennessee
Full Game odds were Lions -3.5 and 47
At the half, Titans winning 20-9
2H lines should be Lions -14.5 and 18
2H lines are Lions -4 and 23
Thus we have Titans +4 2H as a play
How about rest of games?
Kansas City @ New Orleans
Full Game odds were Saints -9 and 51.5
At the half, Saints winning 10-6
2H lines should be Saints -5 and 35.5
2H lines are Saints -3 and 25
Thus we have
UNDER 25 2H as a play
New York Jets @ Miami
Full Game odds were Jets -2.5 and 40.5
At the half, Dolphins 10-3
2H lines should be Jets -7.5 and 27.5
2H lines are Jets -3 and 20.5
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!
St. Louis @ Chicago
Full Game odds were Bears -7 and 42
At the half, Bears 10-3
2H lines should be PK and 29
2H lines are Bears -2.5 and 20
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!
+5s are out there everywhere if that helps
sorry I was doing 10+
Yeah using the 13 point rule I only have the vikings and bengals as plays
Is that it?
Funny...I would have thought you would have more total plays than pointspread plays
Bengals +4
Thanks guys for posting the plays thus far.....
Back Test
Just for everyone's information I will be back testing this method back to and including the 2006 NFL Season.
My Back test will include win/loss records for games that meet 12+ only! If anyone feels that I should include results lower than 12+ please let me know immediately, I just feel comfortable with playing 12+....
I will update this thread ASAP once this is completed; I suspect this will take a couple of days, fortunately I am away from work for a couple of days.
I am hopeful to get this method in action with full units ASAP, so fingers will be crossed that the back test shows us results that have been similar to what we have seen for the 2010 season that was posted by On3.
Good Luck on the early games I have these three for the 1pm est lot for 2012-09-23
1. Minnesota +6.5 2h
2. Tennessee +4 2h
3. Bengals +4 2h
Thank you Andy for doing this and posting it for us. That is generous of you.
I played Tenn +4.5 also but I am not sure it is a play. Vikes and Cincy for sure.
Im definitely interested in seeing the backtest results on this one. I fear with all this hype and everyone jumping on board (including myself), it may not perform as hoped.
Andy, could you backtest using 13 as your magic number? On3 had some kind of stat that showed 13+ had the best results.
Nrok:
I agree! It does not take much to get hopes up. I think what is interesting is that if this turns out to show similar profit projections to the 2010 season, is that it still will require good/strict money management to be successful.
It would be cool if we could get someone to start a running 2012 record just for information purposes, I would volunteer but I know I couldn't keep it up to date based on my schedule.
I will have time to get a good back test up, I believe this sample size should get us 1000+ results, so hopefully that is big enough to make some educated deductions about how profitable this method could potentially be.
Rough start to our second halves!! :wacko:
what a bullshit system. i cant believe idiots followed. im just looking and laughing.
I hope your having an excellent day! :shades:
not at all. seems like everyone is being buried.
1 loss... titans are covering, bengals are covering, vikings are covering... so.... where is the problem?
-playr101
Wow sorry you suck at life but Im pretty sure both "official" plays are covering at the moment, though there is a good chance it goes 1-1. But your right, 1-1 on the 1pm games would def make this a bullshit system.:lmao: Especially when its killing this year. Good luck with your plays bud!
Hell ya TITANS
-playr101
The Titans should not have been a play in the 2Half. Great that it covered, but according to the system there was not a 13 point middle. Only official plays were
MINN +7 WIN
CIN +4 LOSS
ATL +4 is a play 2Half.
Arizona + 4 is a play too?? Please confirm