1. #1
    floki
    floki's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-07-19
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 1114

    Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model: is the US already in recession?

    GDP = 0%
    0% real GDP growth for Q2
    fell to zero from 0.9% week ago.


  2. #2
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 53,781
    Betpoints: 3485

    A recession requires 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

    So at the very least it's 9 months ahead.

    Plus the March Quarter was 3.57% (which is a HIGH growth rate and not even close to negative)


    Inflation is the current problem, not recession.

    And how the FED handles it will have more influence than anyone else right now.



    But at the end of the day Trump handed Biden an economy in recession (and the world did not end), including the worst quarter this century, and it was immediately turned around and the last 4 quarters have all shown higher growth than Trump's best quarter.

    This is a completely BS talking point being used to confuse the people for the mid terms.

    Just look at the real GDP numbers and think for yourself instead of listening to media experts pushing their master's agenda.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: rkelly110

  3. #3
    guitarjosh
    guitarjosh's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-25-07
    Posts: 5,188
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    A recession requires 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

    So at the very least it's 9 months ahead.

    Plus the March Quarter was 3.57% (which is a HIGH growth rate and not even close to negative)


    Inflation is the current problem, not recession.

    And how the FED handles it will have more influence than anyone else right now.



    But at the end of the day Trump handed Biden an economy in recession (and the world did not end), including the worst quarter this century, and it was immediately turned around and the last 4 quarters have all shown higher growth than Trump's best quarter.

    This is a completely BS talking point being used to confuse the people for the mid terms.

    Just look at the real GDP numbers and think for yourself instead of listening to media experts pushing their master's agenda.
    A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, so we're half way there.

    If by March Quarter you mean First quarter, it was -1.5%. I don't think it was as bad as people are making it out to be since we were importing so much to skew the numbers, but it was a negative quarter.

    Trump didn't hand Biden a recession. The last 2 full quarters under Trump were 33.8% growth (the highest on record) and 4.5% growth, meaning average growth for those 2 quarters was over 19%.

    Points Awarded:

    WRMusic gave guitarjosh 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 12/01/2022


  4. #4
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 53,781
    Betpoints: 3485

    I don't think those are official numbers.

    Never heard an economist refer to a January or April quarter.

  5. #5
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 53,781
    Betpoints: 3485

    And one of us are being fed bad numbers as this is the official raw GDP figures before someone else massages them to signal their agenda. "I think" they are anyway. Who knows what is truth or propaganda these days.

  6. #6
    guitarjosh
    guitarjosh's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-25-07
    Posts: 5,188
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    I don't think those are official numbers.

    Never heard an economist refer to a January or April quarter.
    They're the official numbers from the US government Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    And one of us are being fed bad numbers as this is the official raw GDP figures before someone else massages them to signal their agenda. "I think" they are anyway. Who knows what is truth or propaganda these days.
    Neither are incorrect numbers, but yours are non inflation adjusted (nominal) GDP per capita and mine are inflation adjusted (real) GDP quarter over quarter, which is considered the official number. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics 72,214.32 in Q4 2021 GDP per capita would have to be $74,468.28 by March 2022 just to keep up with inflation. https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 12/01/2022


  7. #7
    Greget
    Trump for Prison
    Greget's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-10
    Posts: 9,158
    Betpoints: 4158

    Quote Originally Posted by guitarjosh View Post
    They're the official numbers from the US government Bureau of Economic Analysis.


    Neither are incorrect numbers, but yours are non inflation adjusted (nominal) GDP per capita and mine are inflation adjusted (real) GDP quarter over quarter, which is considered the official number. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics 72,214.32 in Q4 2021 GDP per capita would have to be $74,468.28 by March 2022 just to keep up with inflation. https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
    No they are fake numbers. Trump's 33% gdp growth was only because he caused an economic death spiral the quarter before with NEGATIVE 33% gdp growth. Biden quickly stabilized the ship. As you can see, despite inflation, which is global, Biden economy>> Trump death spiral, pandemic, and insurrection.


  8. #8
    RoyBacon
    RoyBacon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-21-05
    Posts: 37,074
    Betpoints: 8314



    You have an impossible messaging challenge gregy.

  9. #9
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 37,942
    Betpoints: 9835

    Quote Originally Posted by Greget View Post
    No they are fake numbers. Trump's 33% gdp growth was only because he caused an economic death spiral the quarter before with NEGATIVE 33% gdp growth. Biden quickly stabilized the ship. As you can see, despite inflation, which is global, Biden economy>> Trump death spiral, pandemic, and insurrection.

    OOPS!

  10. #10
    Emily_Haines
    Emily_Haines's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-09
    Posts: 14,656
    Betpoints: 14034

    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post


    You have an impossible messaging challenge gregy.
    They will always go straight to the lying card.


  11. #11
    guitarjosh
    guitarjosh's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-25-07
    Posts: 5,188
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by Greget View Post
    No they are fake numbers. Trump's 33% gdp growth was only because he caused an economic death spiral the quarter before with NEGATIVE 33% gdp growth. Biden quickly stabilized the ship. As you can see, despite inflation, which is global, Biden economy>> Trump death spiral, pandemic, and insurrection.

    No, they're real numbers, if you disagree post the real ones. I love how according to you Biden didn't cause inflation or gas price hikes, those are global, but a global pandemic that started in China and wrecked every economy on the planet is the fault of Trump. Biden didn't stabilize the ship when we're talking a recession less than 2 years into his term.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 12/01/2022


  12. #12
    Greget
    Trump for Prison
    Greget's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-10
    Posts: 9,158
    Betpoints: 4158

    Quote Originally Posted by guitarjosh View Post
    No, they're real numbers, if you disagree post the real ones. I love how according to you Biden didn't cause inflation or gas price hikes, those are global, but a global pandemic that started in China and wrecked every economy on the planet is the fault of Trump. Biden didn't stabilize the ship when we're talking a recession less than 2 years into his term.
    Holy shit are you serious? I need to explain this to you?

    Trump was the head of the ship during a global pandemic that some countries mismanaged (the US, under Trump), and some countries did not (every other western social democracy). Shit all Trump had to do was listen to the experts, instead he did the opposite. Dumb Dumb Dumb.

    Inflation and gas prices, on the other hand, are the same or worse everywhere else in the world. That's the difference between a serious leader and a reality TV blowhard with no real world experience.

    And I did post the real numbers, how disingenuous of you to post a chart that purposely cuts off the massive death spiral preceding the quarter you want to claim was the "greatest quarter of gdp growth on record"... Shameful

  13. #13
    Greget
    Trump for Prison
    Greget's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-10
    Posts: 9,158
    Betpoints: 4158

    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post


    You have an impossible messaging challenge gregy.
    Ok bimbo.

  14. #14
    guitarjosh
    guitarjosh's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-25-07
    Posts: 5,188
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by Greget View Post
    Holy shit are you serious? I need to explain this to you?

    Trump was the head of the ship during a global pandemic that some countries mismanaged (the US, under Trump), and some countries did not (every other western social democracy). Shit all Trump had to do was listen to the experts, instead he did the opposite. Dumb Dumb Dumb.

    Inflation and gas prices, on the other hand, are the same or worse everywhere else in the world. That's the difference between a serious leader and a reality TV blowhard with no real world experience.

    And I did post the real numbers, how disingenuous of you to post a chart that purposely cuts off the massive death spiral preceding the quarter you want to claim was the "greatest quarter of gdp growth on record"... Shameful
    That would make sense if there weren't more Covid deaths in 2021 than in 2020, despite having a lot better methods to treat covid and vaccines available: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021...ass-2020-total

    It wasn't disingenuous at all, Optional claimed that
    But at the end of the day Trump handed Biden an economy in recession (and the world did not end), including the worst quarter this century, and it was immediately turned around and the last 4 quarters have all shown higher growth than Trump's best quarter.
    which is all totally false. I was simply pointing that out.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 12/01/2022


  15. #15
    Greget
    Trump for Prison
    Greget's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-10
    Posts: 9,158
    Betpoints: 4158

    Quote Originally Posted by guitarjosh View Post
    That would make sense if there weren't more Covid deaths in 2021 than in 2020, despite having a lot better methods to treat covid and vaccines available: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021...ass-2020-total

    It wasn't disingenuous at all, Optional claimed that which is all totally false. I was simply pointing that out.
    In 2020, Covid hadn't even gotten started..We've had what 3 variants since then. It makes perfect sense. The only people dying now are the unvaccinated. 80%+, which isn't Biden's fault.

    I see you didn't even bother trying to defend your insane inflation isn't global comment. And yes, it was VERY disingenuous to not include the quarter where GDP was massively negative under Trump, and only post the rebound quarter, then say Biden's quarters (which are all better than Trump, minus the last), aren't as good as Trump's numbers.

  16. #16
    guitarjosh
    guitarjosh's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-25-07
    Posts: 5,188
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by Greget View Post
    In 2020, Covid hadn't even gotten started..We've had what 3 variants since then. It makes perfect sense. The only people dying now are the unvaccinated. 80%+, which isn't Biden's fault.

    I see you didn't even bother trying to defend your insane inflation isn't global comment. And yes, it was VERY disingenuous to not include the quarter where GDP was massively negative under Trump, and only post the rebound quarter, then say Biden's quarters (which are all better than Trump, minus the last), aren't as good as Trump's numbers.
    Of course covid had gotten started in 2020! Do you have amnesia? The variants tend to make the disease less lethal. It is totally wrong to claim that the only people dying are unvaccinated. https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/11/healt...ing/index.html.

    I never said inflation wasn't global, you're just making things up again. Prove that it was disingenuous. Optional made an incorrect claim and I showed him the right facts. 2Q of 2020 was irrelevant to what was being discussed.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 12/01/2022


  17. #17
    ByeShea
    ByeShea's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-30-08
    Posts: 7,469
    Betpoints: 9598

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    A recession requires 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth.
    Pretty sure it's 2 quarters. We'll already be working our way out of it by the time we hit 3 consec, should we even hit it. Fed has to do what the Fed has to do.

    Btw, Trump handed Biden a managable situation - Biden fukked it up almost beyond repair.

  18. #18
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 37,942
    Betpoints: 9835

    Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
    Pretty sure it's 2 quarters. We'll already be working our way out of it by the time we hit 3 consec, should we even hit it. Fed has to do what the Fed has to do.

    Btw, Trump handed Biden a managable situation - Biden fukked it up almost beyond repair.
    Here's a more believable conspiracy theory. Your boy was hoaxing the big lie from day one, wouldn't do a peaceful transition. Do you think rump maybe threw some whammies in to F with Joe? Seems that way to me the way things have started Fing up right out of the box. Talk about a vengeful POF'nShit!

  19. #19
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 53,781
    Betpoints: 3485

    Quote Originally Posted by guitarjosh View Post
    They're the official numbers from the US government Bureau of Economic Analysis.


    Neither are incorrect numbers, but yours are non inflation adjusted (nominal) GDP per capita and mine are inflation adjusted (real) GDP quarter over quarter, which is considered the official number. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics 72,214.32 in Q4 2021 GDP per capita would have to be $74,468.28 by March 2022 just to keep up with inflation. https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
    Ah, gotcha.

  20. #20
    ericc
    ericc's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-05-08
    Posts: 8,020
    Betpoints: 18705

    A recession is ‘not inevitable,’ Biden administration officials say

    That is some heavy duty hypno-psychic doublespeak!

    Biden's flunkies spent all day on the Sunday shows chirping it like a mocking bird.

    Politicians always come up with a sweet narrative they think will get you to back off so they can
    blow smoke up your azz.


    Of course the most classic one was, "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor."

  21. #21
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 37,942
    Betpoints: 9835

    Quote Originally Posted by ericc View Post
    That is some heavy duty hypno-psychic doublespeak!

    Biden's flunkies spent all day on the Sunday shows chirping it like a mocking bird.

    Politicians always come up with a sweet narrative they think will get you to back off so they can
    blow smoke up your azz.


    Of course the most classic one was, "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor."
    I still have my doctor. At the time, my plan too.

  22. #22
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 53,781
    Betpoints: 3485

    Quote Originally Posted by ericc View Post
    That is some heavy duty hypno-psychic doublespeak!

    Biden's flunkies spent all day on the Sunday shows chirping it like a mocking bird.

    Politicians always come up with a sweet narrative they think will get you to back off so they can
    blow smoke up your azz.


    Of course the most classic one was, "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor."
    How does it feel waking up daily rooting for your country to fail?

    Like a Patriot??

    Cause you guys sure talk more like traitors.


    Biden actually one of the few I have seen tell the truth about recession potential lately.

  23. #23
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 37,942
    Betpoints: 9835

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    How does it feel waking up daily rooting for your country to fail?

    Like a Patriot??

    Cause you guys sure talk more like traitors.


    Biden actually one of the few I have seen tell the truth about recession potential lately.

  24. #24
    ericc
    ericc's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-05-08
    Posts: 8,020
    Betpoints: 18705

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    How does it feel waking up daily rooting for your country to fail?

    Like a Patriot??

    Cause you guys sure talk more like traitors.


    Biden actually one of the few I have seen tell the truth about recession potential lately.
    Biden said he was going to "respect the Fed."

    It's the Atlanta Fed that is saying the economy is already in a recession.

    Back in the early 1980's the USA was faced with high inflation. The Fed fixed it by imposing a high federal funds rate which cooled off the economy by driving the country into a recession.

    Biden can't let the idea of recession linger because it is politically distasteful and reflects on him.

    Biden knows what the Fed needs to do because he was there (in the 1980's) and witnessed it himself.

    This has nothing to do with health care or health insurance. (see post #21)

    It has to do with politicians lying to voters.

    It's not personal, sonny, it's strictly business.

  25. #25
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 37,942
    Betpoints: 9835

    Sonny?


  26. #26
    ericc
    ericc's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-05-08
    Posts: 8,020
    Betpoints: 18705

    Paul Krugman says fears of runaway inflation are hugely overblown

    Paul Krugman rejected the idea that inflation expectations are getting out of hand, and downplayed the risk of stagflation, in a slew of tweets on Wednesday.

    The inflation indicator dropped from 3.34% in March to 2.48% on July 6, marking its lowest reading since August last year.

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit a 40-year high of 8.6% in May, fanning fears that employees would start demanding wage increases, and businesses would begin hiking prices in anticipation of their costs rising and competitors raising prices. Those trends could spark a dangerous combination of rapidly rising prices and slowing economic growth known as stagflation.





    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/n...150812458.html

  27. #27
    ericc
    ericc's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-05-08
    Posts: 8,020
    Betpoints: 18705

    RAIMONDO: We shouldn't be 'talking ourselves into a recession'

    Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told ABC “This Week” host George Stephanopoulos that it is “normal” for economic growth to slow down to more “steady” levels as the Federal Reserve rapidly raises interest rates.



    https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3...ous-recession/


  28. #28
    TheRifleman
    TheRifleman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-30-12
    Posts: 7,279
    Betpoints: 476

    Trump says it would take him 3 hrs to end ANY recession

  29. #29
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 37,942
    Betpoints: 9835

    Quote Originally Posted by TheRifleman View Post
    Trump says it would take him 3 hrs to end ANY recession
    Gullible cuck!

Top