Originally Posted by
Slurry Pumper
Today's the day we get those inflation numbers at 8:30, and I would not be surprised at all, the way things have gone lately, if the inflation numbers come in hotter that we thought with the annual coming in near 9%, the markets still rally, and gold continues to go down. Its been that type of upside down world lately as the dollar continues to gain strength, dogs and cats sleeping together dudes becoming women so all in all it may be the end times are near.
As I look at the numbers that matter, 380 on the SPY is the turning spot, below and it is possible to see around $375 test and lower if they kill the tape, and if above 380 we will see $385 as another test and possibly 390 on a excited spike. Lately the markets have been trading in a range, we'll call it 370 - 390, so is today the catalyst that gets it out of that range? Probably not actually and that would be inline with my theory of choppy to higher in the coming months. Be aware however that it is still a bear market so a rip you a new one rally can occur at any time, and we still haven't seen any capitulation to the down side side to that $365-362 level which will be tested again eventually if not sooner.
A look around the indices that I look at, and the IWM, QQQ, $DJT, and XLF are all looking the same with the prices hanging above or very slightly below the 20DMA. The SMH however has the bull flag look to it albeit just below the 20DMA.
Bottom line is my crystal ballz are telling me today inflation is worse than we thought but the markets will not care and we see that up day after a few days of selling for no reason at all, then on Friday when the banks come in, that will send the markets lower into the weekend thus maintaining the chop shop formation and slightly higher run in the near future theory going. I give this scenario about a 60% chance today so I'm not that confident about it.