[d2bets]

There's the bounce. The repair operation starts here, next stop 378.50 and then they can think about some more.

Bingo. Now what?

[Slurry Pumper]

Bingo. Now what?

They're making a run for today's high, and the 50DMA. Going into the close these numbers get magnetic. No one wants to be short going into the weekend so I think the market floats up for a while, and they may have a late day session where the price gets jammed up at the close in an effort to get to 384. Or they will hit the 50 DMA and pull back and try to get back by the end of the day. I doubt they hit the 50DMA and fall away so no short play for me. I just stay long and put in a decent stop and stop watching for the week. I don't want to force a trade when the week has been pretty stellar.

[homie1975]

selling started again

[Snowball]

wal mart call

argentine banks last call ? earnings coming up. march 15-17th on supv, ggal, bbar, bma. also remember teo.
the gov't has restriction on how many USD's Argentine citizens can hold in accounts that "may" be lifted EOM
if that happens and the IMF loan is certified the Argentine market will bounce like crazy.

wal mart (and select retailers i've mentioned) - will benefit from STIM that is March 14 deadline set by Dems
they want it and are cutting deals with GOP to make it happen. Wal Mart is tested at this price and should rebound.

[d2bets]

Sell the rip at 3809?

[Slurry Pumper]

Sell the rip at 3809?

We're in float mode now, I wouldn't short going into the rest of the day. I may watch, but volume should be light until the last hour. Then anything goes, but it is more likely to get jammed up into the close.

[homie1975]

today's action smells like computers at institutions kicked in at lower auto buy points.

[Slurry Pumper]

today's action smells like computers at institutions kicked in at lower auto buy points.

I did to. I auto sell at 384 next week also.

[homie1975]

I did to. I auto sell at 384 next week also.

you sold.

the computers at the big institutions, bought.

[Slurry Pumper]

you sold.

the computers at the big institutions, bought.

I buy and sell. Right now I'm still waiting to sell today. On monday, I'll see which way the wind blows before deciding.

[homie1975]

I buy and sell. Right now I'm still waiting to sell today. On monday, I'll see which way the wind blows before deciding.

you've been doing very well, keep up the great work and thanks for sharing !

[Madison]

i'm looking to average down on your favorite: NVDA

Tough ride down from 600. I did sell some circa 550. Just couldn't resist < 490. My DCA was 512 before today's purchase.

[Madison]

Was so happy circa 11am when I got stopped out of 50% of my position on SKWS at 166. Was trading around 160 soon after. Just rolled past at circa 173. FK me. LOL

I have a very sad record with "stop loss %".

[Shafted69]

AI buy bots kicked in and the correction is in. Spring rally now.

[homie1975]

Was so happy circa 11am when I got stopped out of 50% of my position on SKWS at 166. Was trading around 160 soon after. Just rolled past at circa 173. FK me. LOL

I have a very sad record with "stop loss %".

Trailing stops right ?

[homie1975]

3Y anny of this thread is tomorrow.

Happy anny, Boys and let's keep the great work going.

[trobin31]

Bought dip on EVFM, “Magi-lube” @2.3

new entries on Nano-explore, my first graphene play...

URG@1 even....Uranium play

added to dips on CLSK@21 NNDM@6.5 TSNP@2.9

[Slurry Pumper]

Bought dip on EVFM, “Magi-lube” @2.3

new entries on Nano-explore, my first graphene play...

URG@1 even....Uranium play

added to dips on CLSK@21 NNDM@6.5 TSNP@2.9

I bought some magi-lube earlier today as well at 2.41 and 2.16.

[Iona]

[DISTROYA]

Sorry to jump in as an amateur but I got invested in mostly NASDAQ Tech funds just in the beginning of February and now I'm already down significantly. I did not sell anything can someone that has been around the markets tell me approximately how many months it will take to get back over the 14000 levels so I can recoup most of my losses thank you. FOMO Got The Best of Me and I realize now I should have waited before jumping in the water at very high prices.

[Slurry Pumper]

Sorry to jump in as an amateur but I got invested in mostly NASDAQ Tech funds just in the beginning of February and now I'm already down significantly. I did not sell anything can someone that has been around the markets tell me approximately how many months it will take to get back over the 14000 levels so I can recoup most of my losses thank you. FOMO Got The Best of Me and I realize now I should have waited before jumping in the water at very high prices.

You kind of pick the wrong time to jump into the Nasdaq. This index has been on a rocket ride for about a year now up until a few weeks ago and if you plan on holding, I think you're going to be disappointed.



Overall the index has been great as you can see from the candle sticks all pretty much staying above the 20 day moving average (Orange Solid Line). Every time the price came down to the 20DMA, the price bounced off of it until 2/16 when the high was put in and since then the index fell away and this time on 2/22, the index took a gap open down lower than the 20DMA and continued down to put in a low on the 23rd. Then it ran up but couldn't get up to the 20DMA. This is running a test. Generally when a stock or index or whatever breaks through a support or resistance level, that stock will come back to test that level before continuing the move either down or up. The Nasdaq made 2 such attempts to climb back up to the 20DMA with this last time resulting in a pretty hard selloff. Now it put in a low of about 12400 on Friday when a repair team came in and put in a hail Mary Pass to move the index back up to end the day at 12920.

Ok so that is what happened, and now for the hard part, where is it going in the next week, and next month.
Friday put in a pretty nice tail candle (yellow oval) which is generally a bullish sign. The MACD (red bars at the bottom of the screen) is about max'd out to the downside. The MACD is a lagging momentum indicator and given the falling down the staircase from the Nasdaq we would expect this indicator to be negative. Its about as negative as it ever gets, but look at it this way, its so far negative that things will probably rise from here. Also the 2 stochastic indicators (the 2 lines wandering about on the bottom of the screen are also about as low as it gets. This indicates an oversold sentiment and usually a place people like to buy. The fact that the purple line has not been crossed by the red line yet isn't great, and the line can just flatten out in the oversold condition and stay that way. Generally traders like the lines to cross before executing the trade.

Back up where the candle sticks are, I put in a blue dashed descending line with 3 (almost) price touches, and another blue dashed descending line with just 2 lines touches below the candles to create a channel. There is a good likelihood that the Nasdaq makes a run back up from here, it will have resistant levels just above the current price at the big fat number of 13000 (grey dashed line). Then the blue dashed line will be a bitch to get through with allot of people myself included, will short heavily the closer the price gets to it. If the price somehow can break out of the dashed line, the price will then move up and possibly catch the high. This is an unlikely scenario but it could happen in quick order. I'd say that it is about a 75% chance that the price moves up and then falls away from the blue descending line, and this time when it does, it will probably not stop until the next big fat number on the board at 11000.

If it were me, first I applaud your ability not to sell in the hole on Friday, so now you can enjoy the dead cat bounce back up, but the closer it gets to the 13350 semi fat number on Monday which would represent a convergence of the 50DMA (solid green line) and the blue descending line, the more I would start to think about selling at that level and licking my wounds and moving on. Or even switch and buy the SQQQ which is a short 3 times leveraged ETF of the QQQ which is an ETF for the Nasdaq. If the Nasdaq index continues to move up to the 20DMA, that wouldn't be out of the ordinary, but closing a candle above would indicate that the price is indeed going for the former high which would be the less likely (25%) scenario and make me wrong.



Looking at the weekly chart, you can see how coming in now is about 10 months late, where were you? Anyway, the trend is your friend until you find your friend banging that trend behind your back on your own couch. So far believe it or not, the trend here is still intact. We haven't seen a weekly candle close below the 20WMA (orange line). Most of the last year has been spent above the 9WMA (yellow line) which is nice but not as important as the 20WMA. Take a look at the purple circles and you can see that the current situation looks allot like a few other times during the year. Like I said the trend is your friend, but it sure looks like your friend is at least rounding 3rd base on that trend and getting ready to pound that trend with a healthy dose of Magi-Lube for safety which I hear taste great by the way. If that does happen, there really isn't much support until the 11000 level. If you hold and wait it out, 12700, 12500, 12400 and the 200 DMA (Solid white line on the daily chart) are your levels of support. Under those support levels and you will watch that trend moaning and groaning while your friend has a big smile on his face and claims he does a better job than you do. That's a dangerous proposition. For the Nasdaq to remain with the trend I believe that you need the stimulus to come in pretty quickly and the bond interest yields to subside and at that point maybe the Nasdaq will get back up to 14000 in about 2 to 3 weeks with a little luck. I really don't see it though.

All in all, I believe that the short term price will move back up to the 13350 level probably on Monday, then another drop down to test the lows from last week before continuing down to the grand daddy 200DMA (solid white line) and on some big energy on negativity, possibly to the 11000 level.

[DISTROYA]

Wow terrific info SP thank you. I get the numbers but the rest just way over my head. Where I was 10 months ago, was I had my head up my ass gambling my balls off when I shouldve invested here. That 11000 would essentially wipe me out in terms of big losses. You clearly know what youre doing and well versed, kudos. Im just a joe schmoe that ended up getting in on the tail end of the rocket ride up, then crashing down naturally as I enter anything. Id like to get your long term opinions, 1-5 years down the line I dont mind holding longer even if it means weathering the endless storms, thank you.

[flyingillini]

Affirm is a steal now!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Wow terrific info SP thank you. I get the numbers but the rest just way over my head. Where I was 10 months ago, was I had my head up my ass gambling my balls off when I shouldve invested here. That 11000 would essentially wipe me out in terms of big losses. You clearly know what youre doing and well versed, kudos. Im just a joe schmoe that ended up getting in on the tail end of the rocket ride up, then crashing down naturally as I enter anything. Id like to get your long term opinions, 1-5 years down the line I dont mind holding longer even if it means weathering the endless storms, thank you.

About 1 year is the furthest I will usually look down the road, and the way I see it, there will be 1 more big push up in all the markets with all kinds of hype in the coming months. This will be your chance to get out as the whole market will crash like a stone. Everything will go down like a rookie stripper saving up for her breast implants. I see this thing called stagflation on the horizon and it all goes down when they stop giving out stimulus checks. They won't be able to continue to hand out free money for very much longer without major problems in the bond market and massive unemployment still hanging around. Hell they already have major problems in the bond market brewing that will be very difficult to control as it is.

The whole economy is on life support as it is so don't get hurt. The market is in the process of making a top now with wild swings in both directions. The top may have been put in at just about the time you jumped in. The fact that you jumped in at this time is itself an indicator to market traders that the top is indeed in. When it breaks, it will break pretty hard and it will take years to get back there.

I think you're gonna get lucky and be able to get most to all of your cash back. The stimulus is gonna pass probably on Tuesday, and I'm sure the Fed won't admit it, but they will quietly start pushing down bond yields in the short term. This will be a pre-requisite of a national infrastructure bill of even more epic proportions that will probably pass in June sometime. The short term effect will be to kick the can down the road and wall street will quietly start getting out while transferring the bag to the come lately people.

[DISTROYA]

Thank you again. Are you for hire LOL. Sincerely appreciated. Will patiently look for that push and GTFO.

[Slurry Pumper]

Ok so at this point does anyone who has read my stuff for the last week doubt that 384 on the SPY wasn't an important number. I've been seeing things pretty clearly for the last month or so, and I hope to continue for future readings of the charts. Let me put on the tin foil hat and let's go.

Friday things looked really bad and then all of a sudden a complete turn and the SPY went on a blow your hair back rally up to and above the 384 mark before falling away to end slightly under.



Above is a chart of a 5 day action on the SPY that is broken down to hourly candle sticks starting at 9:30. The first 2 hours we were headed down into the bottom of the mine shaft as I like to say. If you look at the circled volume, the red bars are larger than the green bars next to them on the right even though the first hour has more selling than the 2nd hour. The rest of the day we had less than average volume, (blue line that runs across the volume bars) with buyers. What this is telling me is that more people sold off on the way down than people bought on the way up. This is a sign that large institutions are not participating and are unwinding the positions they have. Then as I switch to the 2 Day time period with 10 minute candle sticks below,


You can see that the volume of buyers stayed steady but lower than average (circled in yellow) until the end of the day when the price had already reached above the 384 number I told you about last week. At that point going into the end of the day the sellers (circled in blue)came back in with the selling to push down the price to be under the magical 384 number.

Just to reintegrate, I'll switch to the 2 year chart with weekly candle sticks.



Looking at this chart you can see that the trend is for all weekly closes to remain above the 20WMA (solid orange line). We do have 1 weekly close below the 20WMA since around June or so and right after that the SPY shot right back up, so the trend is still our friend here despite the last few weeks and all that happened last week. All that happened last week, as I zoom in on the weekly action from this year so far, is



is the SPY ran a test of the weekly break down candle low from a few weeks ago (circled in magenta) before turning around and making a continuing move to the upside. A re-cocking of the gun to set up a run to challenge the highs possibly. On the weekly chart, the trend of higher highs and higher lows is still in tact (yellow arrows).

So this would indicate that in the short term (next week) I believe that the SPY continues up and will reach the descending blue dashed line (circled in yellow) and possibly challenge the all time high if things break right. Ultimately I believe that the high from mid February will hold.

It's all determined on how the overall market accepts the $2 trillion give a way that is coming this week, probably on Tuesday. I believe that the more these stimulus bills come out the lesser the bounce will be. We have serious bond yield issues that are challenging the Fed and despite what he says, I believe that they are in there starting to drive down the yield so that the inflation doesn't get over heated. It's a little hard to do when you toss out there 5 trillion bucks in a year, and have another 3 trillion on the docket for new highways and roads. Either way check out the futures tonight to see how the sentiment is going.

Monday I think we have a 75% chance to continue the rally and probably a pretty nice move up to around the 389 area on the SPY. At that point the market will be poised to rally on the news that the stimulus is in, but I also think that there is a chance that the news gets sold. Remember the theory is that it doesn't matter what the news is, it is only a catalyst the market uses to move the way it wants to move anyway. So how can the market justify a lower move on stimulus passage? Well we've been expecting the stimulus now for at least a month and probably 2, and the bond sentiment will definitely take the bill as inflationary. They have to because there really has been some big inflation. Just go to the grocery store or purchase some commodities like wheat, corn, soy beans, orange juice, or any metal not named Gold. People pushing gold down have created a buying opportunity that in a year or so will be looked back on as a gift.

If I'm wrong, I'll have to change my look as the descending blue line is breached on a daily close, be a wolf and stay in the long side with and eye out for a confirmation when the all time high is eclipsed then wait for the impending melt up to complete itself in a few more weeks before we start the same thing that went on in February again.

[whydubya]

About 1 year is the furthest I will usually look down the road, and the way I see it, there will be 1 more big push up in all the markets with all kinds of hype in the coming months. This will be your chance to get out as the whole market will crash like a stone. Everything will go down like a rookie stripper saving up for her breast implants. I see this thing called stagflation on the horizon and it all goes down when they stop giving out stimulus checks. They won't be able to continue to hand out free money for very much longer without major problems in the bond market and massive unemployment still hanging around. Hell they already have major problems in the bond market brewing that will be very difficult to control as it is.

The whole economy is on life support as it is so don't get hurt. The market is in the process of making a top now with wild swings in both directions. The top may have been put in at just about the time you jumped in. The fact that you jumped in at this time is itself an indicator to market traders that the top is indeed in. When it breaks, it will break pretty hard and it will take years to get back there.

I think you're gonna get lucky and be able to get most to all of your cash back. The stimulus is gonna pass probably on Tuesday, and I'm sure the Fed won't admit it, but they will quietly start pushing down bond yields in the short term. This will be a pre-requisite of a national infrastructure bill of even more epic proportions that will probably pass in June sometime. The short term effect will be to kick the can down the road and wall street will quietly start getting out while transferring the bag to the come lately people.

Thanks for your analysis SP. Your sentiment is much like Gregory Mannarino whose videos I watch on YouTube. If there's a big crash, I assume you'd want to hold assets like gold, silver, crypto, etc.?

Also, where did you learn your technical analysis?

[Slurry Pumper]

30 years of fukking up and taken notes.

[Poker_Beast]

Slurry, thanks for sharing your 30 years of knowledge even though I do not understand most of it. Thanks to everyone as I have learned a lot following this thread the last several months.

[Sanity Check]

[homie1975]

Fukking Nazzy down a point in pre but it's early.

Looks like another few days or more of making decisions on where to average down and where to stay put. Gawdammit

[Slurry Pumper]

Its looking more and more like the stimulus will be a negative catalyst. Bond yields are taking over the outlook and they can spike allot more. Bad for tech, gold, everything for that matter except oil right now.
Been looking for a big short play for when it hits, the SQQQ is a current play so that train has left the station a little bit but maybe can jump on board for a while. It is looking like Friday's move back in the Nasdaq was a 1 day event, and things could plop on down to the 11000 level pretty quickly. How about the IWM? Its at 217, and I see support at around 170 and 160 as being a nice short run. You can also get the SRTY which is the leveraged version for under 12 bucks now. I'll be picking some up here and there probably all week.

[Sanity Check]

Its looking more and more like the stimulus will be a negative catalyst.

Every US stimulus bill since George W Bush was acting President went down that way.

...


They're only being a little more obvious about it now.

[Slurry Pumper]

I start to sell the rip on SPY at 388 - 389.50 today.

[Slurry Pumper]

I start to sell the rip on SPY at 388 - 389.50 today.

387.50 is a little shy of my target zone. I took it anyway but will unload probably pretty soon as I believe they will be up to 389 by the end of the day. I'm wrong if we break 384 again. Then depending on the feeling, I may sell in the hole for some more weight in the position, something I don't generally like to do but under 384 and we may be riding the wave down again.