Originally Posted by
Ian
I totally missed the fact that OP was talking about heads up. Playing HU you're just going to have to live with the fact that you're usually going to pay off a set when you have something.
How I would play this depends on stack sizes, but generally speaking in your example I would need very significant evidence that I'm beat to fold. Your TAG opponent could very well have 44, but his hand range is a lot wider here than in my example. Here are some of the diffrences:
-In my example a TAG player would know it's suicidal to run a naked bluff into two players who have shown strength out of position. In your example the TAG will be bluffing with air fairly frequently because he may just figure that you're trying to pick up the pot after the action has been checked to you in position.
-For similar reasons as above, a TAG will also be much more likely to think that top pair with a strong kicker is worth value betting in your example. If he's tight and very aggressive he may even push a hand as weak as A8 here.
Of course, if you know your opponent well enough to be confident that he'll only make this sort of raise with a set, then you should trust your read and fold.
Just my opinion... hope that answers your question.