1. #1
    LVHerbie
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    nbc heads up poker odds

    From Bodog... There is a lot of luck in heads up poker and, if you watched this in past, the blinds go up pretty fast... I would be surprised if the best player would even be a 60-40 favorite over the worst in a one set match... There might some value on the long shots on this (maybe even some of the celebs)...

    << Who will win the 2008 National Heads-Up Poker Championship taking place at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, Nevada?


    (The tournament will run from Feb 29th - March 2nd). All wagers have action. Singles Only. Max $50

    Phil Ivey
    25/1

    Daniel Negreanu
    25/1

    Patrik Antoinus
    25/1

    Paul Wasicka
    35/1

    David Benyamine
    38/1

    Todd Brunson
    38/1

    Allen Cunninghman
    30/1

    Freddy Deeb
    35/1

    Chris Ferguson
    30/1

    Ted Forrest
    35/1

    Barry Greenstein
    35/1

    Gus Hansen
    35/1

    Phil Hellmuth
    35/1

    John Juanda
    35/1

    Erick Lindgren
    35/1

    David Pham
    35/1

    J.C. Tran
    35/1

    Doyle Brunson
    35/1

    Jennifer Harman
    45/1

    Erik Seidel
    40/1

    Brian Townsend
    35/1

    David Williams
    45/1

    Daniel Schreiber
    50/1

    Kenny Tran
    55/1

    Sam Farha
    55/1

    Joe Hachem
    55/1

    Howard Lederer
    55/1

    Mike Matusow
    55/1

    Greg Raymer
    50/1

    Eli Elezra
    50/1

    Tom Schneider
    40/1

    Tom Dwan
    25/1

    Antonio Esfandiari
    60/1

    Jamie Gold
    60/1

    Phil Laak
    65/1

    Michael Mizrachi
    65/1

    Gabe Kaplan
    60/1

    Johnny Chan
    20/1

    Scott Clements
    20/1

    Johnathan Little
    20/1

    David Singer
    40/1

    Gavin Smith
    40/1

    Jean-Robert Bellande
    60/1

    Chad Brown
    65/1

    Annie Duke
    60/1

    Scotty Nguyen
    40/1

    Huck Seed
    45/1

    Jerry Yang
    60/1

    Bill Edler
    40/1

    T.J. Cloutier
    45/1

    Scott Fischman
    35/1

    Jennifer Tilly
    80/1

    Clonie Gowen
    75/1

    Sam Grizzle
    90/1

    Vanessa Rousso
    80/1

    Jason Alexander
    90/1

    Don Cheadle
    100/1

    Shannon Elizabeth
    100/1

    Brad Garrett
    100/1

    Oriel Hershiser
    100/1 >>

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    Who you got Herbie?

  3. #3
    LVHerbie
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    I'm actually going to send a little money into bodog tommorrow to get in on a couple of dark horses... I can't imagine they get much action on these things so I'll wait to till then to post my picks so my can get my "max bets" in before causing big line moves...

  4. #4
    slacker00
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    It's tough to take any of those odds.

    Heads up does take a fair amount of skill.

    Since the field is 64 players, 64-1 would be the average odds. The only ones getting that or better are some big dogs.

    If you want to roll the dice on a longshot, Esfandiari at 60-1 is as good as any.

  5. #5
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    It's tough to take any of those odds.

    Heads up does take a fair amount of skill.

    Since the field is 64 players, 64-1 would be the average odds. The only ones getting that or better are some big dogs.

    If you want to roll the dice on a longshot, Esfandiari at 60-1 is as good as any.
    My point is that the average players aren't big dogs with the format/structure...

    Heads up takes a alot skill IF there is a good structure... unless they changed it from the last few years the structure isn't too good from what the people playing it say.... I would equate it to turbo heads up tourneys online... this isn't the WSOP main event and the matches are very short... (the first year they played the whole tourney in one day... they split it up into a couple now...) I think several of 60-1+ players are above average players against the field which should give me them a little value... Obviously, I wouldn't put the bank on anyone in particular but with $50 limits that isn't really possible anyhow...

    Plus the draw doesn't occur till the day before so you don't know who each person is playing... that obviously adds more luck and less skill into this event... adding that with the speed and you get an event where any decent player isn't much of a dog to a good player and an average player could get a decent draw and be a slight favorite against his or her path...

    Basically I'm saying that if you can find an average or slightly below average players (against this field) at the long shot prices then you are going to get a some +EV out of them...
    Last edited by LVHerbie; 02-28-08 at 05:14 PM.

  6. #6
    minet123
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    Ted Forrest at 35/1 or Phil Laak at 65/1 are worth a shot

  7. #7
    slacker00
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    -Spoiler alert-

    I guess they played this thing over a week ago and I'm reading the results online. If you don't want to know the results before seeing it on TV, don't read any further. I guess this thing is airing starting April 13th on NBC






    Ferguson won it. In retrospect, I shoulda had my eye on him. He's had good results in the past in this format, etc, etc.

    Andy Bloch got second. Solid player.

    Orel Hershiser made it into the final 8. I'll have to see it to believe it. I can't wait to see how Orel Hershiser managed to defeat these 3 opponents in this tournament: Ted Forrest, Allen Cunningham, Doyle Brunson.


    It does sound like the structure allowed for a fair amount of luck, especially in the early rounds. But the later rounds less so, especially the final matchup involving the "best of 3". Regardless of structure, heads-up has a fair amount of skill involved.

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