1. #1
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Very interesting Poker hand: Seiver vs Reinkemeier

    Just a few things to ponder:

    1) If Reinkemeier decides to slow-play AA as a call there, you have to be ready to die w/ that hand. Seiver isn't THAT deep-stacked.

    2) Discussion around this hand was that Reinkemeier would be ahead of Seiver's normal hand.
    *Don't give him credit for a flush. The only flush that makes sense is KQ(clubs).
    *The more likely Seiver hand is KQ with ONE club. You're ahead of that hand.

    3) Reinkemeier's speech-play is very good. I can't believe he didn't pick up on how loose Seiver was early and then how frozen he was after told he was up against AA.

    Some analysts called this a Bad Fold. But then again, they saw the cards...so it's nice to have 100% Clairvoyance:


  2. #2
    thetrinity
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    brutal card for AA and no club

    hard to fold against someone so over aggressive, but seiver would check hands like q and a big club in that spot IMO

    really was a bluff or he was in bad shape
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  3. #3
    thetrinity
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    Something else

    Guys donít like to make pot size bet calls or bigger if they could end up looking silly in live poker. Seiver probably feels that he would have gotten check raised on the flop by a flush draw and he was low stacked so he went for it on the scare card against a player who would have had to put in 2/3rds of his chips on a call. The way it played out it was more likely that Reinkemeier was drawing dead than Seiver (would put a low flush in his range trying to get calls from Qxbigclub type hands or slowplayed sets/QJ). Seiver sold being pretty comfortable which also led to the fold.
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  4. #4
    pavyracer
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  5. #5
    boscokid
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    Calling preflop from BB, checking AA on flop and turn then complain about losing on river is Classic SBR poker move.

    This guy would fit right in here. Need SBR Genie to reach out to him and let him know about the next poker series.

  6. #6
    semibluff
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    Bad fold. AK, AQ, A10 clubs would have checked the flop and would definitely check the turn hoping the opponent caught up. KQ clubs is the only potential winning hand that would bet pre-flop and post-flop, but that hand wouldn't bet the turn to block out the top club & off-suit because it would scare off a set, 2-pair, low pair with a club etc. K-paint suited makes the most sense. I'd call. No point slow-playing if you're going to be scared by just 1 or 2 combinations.
    Last edited by semibluff; 10-06-21 at 07:48 PM.

  7. #7
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    This hand is from a few years ago, fwiw. Here are my thoughts across the streets:

    PRE-FLOP:
    *I'm really ok w/ Tobias calling the AA. Just that u have to be prepared to call it off vs most runouts. After Siever's open, his Effective Stack is only about 16BB.
    *Versus Siever's exact holding, an All-In or even a Re-raise would have folded him out.

    FLOP:
    *I'm 100% ok w/ the Bet and Call.

    TURN:
    *Given these stack sizes, this is where u WANTED Siever to shove. If he had bet small, u could go All-In.
    ...I'm not saying that based on Actual holdings. I'm saying that based on Combos.

    This hand gets interesting b/c neither player holds a Club:
    *I actually hate Siever's shove. Not having a Club here hurts his removal. I think he can get called down with a lot of hands that are good combo-draws.
    *Siever overbets the pot on the Turn. About 6.8 into 6.2, which is repping a big hand. I think he's trying to knock out marginal hands like JT with a T(club).

    Open vs BB hits a lot of similar ranges here. Note that Q(clubs) has not been removed on the board. People have their own opinions, but I think so many Robust hands can Shove OR Call here:
    KT w/ a club
    KQ w/ a club
    QT w/ a club

    As far as ranges, my opinion on Siever's hand is that:
    *He doesn't have many T9(o). He COULD have T9(clubs) for a Vulnerable Flush and not want to get outdrawn on River.
    *KQ(clubs) might check turn b/c he has opponent (likely) drawing dead.

    It's enuf to make one think about it. I'm just surprised Siever shoves there without 2pair+ OR a Big Club.

    Look again at Siever's body language. He goes into a shell when he learns he's in trouble.

  8. #8
    jackpot269
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    When the turn is dealt and its J of clubs Seiver goes all-in, I would be thinking 1) flush 2) set of jacks or 3) a bluff. What is the play here if you have this exact hand 50x do you play it same every time ? Or not?

  9. #9
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Jack, here's where I disagree w/ your logic:

    1) Flush? How many flushes can he have? And should he be shoving Nuts or 2nd-nuts?
    ...I really think he has only a few flush combos.

    2) I think you're giving Siever too much credit to put him on many Sets.
    ...There's also a chance he's up against a flush (more 2-club combos call from BB), which insta-calls.

    3) Bluff? Maybe. Tobias actually calls out Siever's hand.

    I just think Siever is most likely on a SEMI-bluff or Value Hand w/ Re-draw. Pair+Big Club, or KT w/ one club.

    Listen to Siever's reaction. I think it's genuine. He can't believe Tobias would fold that.
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  10. #10
    jackpot269
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    I know you probably would have played the AA different than Reinkemeier before the turn card but put yourself in that spot. Do you fold AA or not?

  11. #11
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Jack, here's where I disagree w/ your logic:

    1) Flush? How many flushes can he have? And should he be shoving Nuts or 2nd-nuts?
    ...I really think he has only a few flush combos.

    2) I think you're giving Siever too much credit to put him on many Sets.
    ...There's also a chance he's up against a flush (more 2-club combos call from BB), which insta-calls.

    3) Bluff? Maybe. Tobias actually calls out Siever's hand.

    I just think Siever is most likely on a SEMI-bluff or Value Hand w/ Re-draw. Pair+Big Club, or KT w/ one club.

    Listen to Siever's reaction. I think it's genuine. He can't believe Tobias would fold that.
    Agreed. With 16 BBs JJ pre-flop would be a shove, same with mid-pairs. K-paint off-suit would be a fold. K-paint suited or maybe QJ suited fits a raise to 2 BBs pre-flop.

    AK, AQ, A10, KQ, or K10 all clubs wouldn't shove on the turn. A-rag clubs, connecting clubs, or worse clubs wouldn't have bet pre-flop.

    Shoving with a set of 2s or 4s is just about plausible, but there's only 3 combinations for each.

    The more likely hands are K-paint suited no club or QJ suited no club. There are only 11 combinations of those on the turn and AA is in great shape against 8 of them. Effectively there are only 9 combinations i'm worried about and i'm getting 2/1.

    The only bit I disagree on are the 1 club holdings.

  12. #12
    blankoblanco
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    I swear I'm not being results oriented: this is an absolutely horrible and insane fold given stack sizes. It doesn't take a huge, complicated breakdown either. Seiver had so much of his stack in the pot going into the turn, and all he'd done was open minraise from the HJ and then c-bet. Like, think about that. His range is still very, very wide. And he's arguably almost obligated to semibluff shove the turn with any big club at that point, could also shove just to protect a big Q, would absolutely shove with KK, and so on. Evidently straight draws too. Seiver plays tourneys to win, he's not scared or shoving with a nitty range here

    There's a reason Seiver acted in disbelief and then disgusted that Reinkemeier actually had AA, and it wasn't just to kick the guy while he was down. It's honestly absurd and almost unthinkable to fold it

    Btw I know Reinkemeier is an excellent player, way better than I am, but he leveled the fk out of himself here. We all make mistakes
    Last edited by blankoblanco; 10-07-21 at 09:07 AM.
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  13. #13
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by blankoblanco View Post
    I swear I'm not being results oriented: this is an absolutely horrible and insane fold given stack sizes. It doesn't take a huge, complicated breakdown either. Seiver had so much of his stack in the pot going into the turn, and all he'd done was open minraise from the HJ and then c-bet. Like, think about that. His range is still very, very wide. And he's arguably almost obligated to semibluff shove the turn with any big club at that point, could also shove just to protect a big Q, would absolutely shove with KK, and so on. Evidently straight draws too. Seiver plays tourneys to win, he's not scared or shoving with a nitty range here

    There's a reason Seiver acted in disbelief and then disgusted that Reinkemeier actually had AA, and it wasn't just to kick the guy while he was down. It's honestly absurd and almost unthinkable to fold it

    Btw I know Reinkemeier is an excellent player, way better than I am, but he leveled the fk out of himself here. We all make mistakes
    With just 16 BBs I don't think he can play that wide pre-flop. A min raise isn't going to steal the blinds. If he min raises the flop his bet choices are almost mandated vs a call-check-check sequence. Still an awful fold.

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