1. #1
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 31,113
    Betpoints: 24611

    Stevek, I think this is the hand you're referring to

    From 2018:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHK1OjglQDs



    Here were my comments on the hand:

    PRE-FLOP. Ho's hand is incredibly face-up. Call from the BB there pretty much has to be JJ/TT/99 and not much else. A hand that can't raise but can't fold.

    FLOP:
    *Farrell. What does he do w/ two Black Aces? I'd argue that he'd have to Check/Fold w/ two Black Aces, b/c he flopped so bad.

    W/ his exact holding, he has a dynamic hand that has many possibilities. I'd argue that his action very much looks like AK(o) w/ EITHER the Ace(H) or King(H).

    Think about it. There's NO WAY he's trying to fold out the world w/ AK(Hearts), if he flopped the Nuts w/ a re-draw to the Super-nuts Royal.

    *Ho. Ho's fold is what came under scrutiny, and rightfully so. See my comments above. If Farrell somehow flopped a flush w/ AK/AQ/KQ, he's not going to blow away the field.

    I think she has to call. You can't be so narrow as to give Farrell credit for JJ (which is possible).

    *Kempe. People criticized Ho's fold, but I'd argue that Kempe's fold was bad, too. See my notes about Farrell's holding. You just shouldn't be so quick to give him credit for flopping the universe.

    Other than flopping a 9, I'd argue that Kempe's flop is ALMOST as good as one could hope for. Like top 20% of possible flops.

    He has Pair w/ gutshot to a Straight-Flush. Surely he has to be drawing very live. I ran the numbers vs Farrell holding JJ...and even THEN, Kempe would be getting 90-cents on the dollar.

    *Bicknell. After two folds, I think Bicknell is the one reasonable fold. Fair to not feel comfortable w/ TPTK after all that action in front.

    POST-HAND. I heard Farrell interviewed about this hand. He said that he knew the flop smashed some of his opponent ranges. Ergo, it's very likely that he could be up against a flopped set. Understand what he's saying. Not in his wildest dreams did he think he'd get a set to fold...he was just taking his equity!
    Points Awarded:

    pablo222 gave ChuckyTheGoat 4 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    RedApples
    sup
    RedApples's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-02-18
    Posts: 721
    Betpoints: 1564

    I would love to play you.

  3. #3
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 31,113
    Betpoints: 24611

    Quote Originally Posted by RedApples View Post
    I would love to play you.
    Why do u say that, Apples?

  4. #4
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 31,113
    Betpoints: 24611

    I love this video. Go to 20:00 and see a few things:

    1) Tuchman is an awesome announcer. He lays out the situation quite accurately, although he makes Farrell's range too wide.
    2) Kempe insta-folds. How can u not give it more thought there?
    3) Right at the end...listen to one of the other players. He calls out Farrell and laughs: "Neil...good bluff raise."

  5. #5
    pablo222
    pablo222's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-03-19
    Posts: 8,798
    Betpoints: 25242

    If you call the 3bet in the BB pre, I don't see how you fold that flop.
    Sure he overbets the pot but there is a enough equity you call if you want to win tournament.

    Kempe didn't really instafold because I think Maria tanked for about 10 minutes.
    Points Awarded:

    ChuckyTheGoat gave pablo222 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  6. #6
    thetrinity
    penetrate me to tears
    thetrinity's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-25-11
    Posts: 22,430
    Betpoints: 5536

    Didnt read chuckys comments my take

    Maybe Bicknell should fold preflop? Feels like reverse implied odds. Unless she crushes the flop, she cant ever continue (2p+)

    Farrell pretty much has to have only a few hands, something where he isnt drawing dead ever (8h9h almost impossible given the action). It wouldnt be so wild that he has the nut flush IMO either though, but I would lean to something like he had or jj. The pot is already huge and he has 3 players behind him, so it is possible he did flop the ace high flush. I think he shoved like 1m into 600k? With a huge positional disadvantage, that was his best chance to win the pot. Pretty much has JJ 1010 Ahkx Ahqx Ahkh Ahqh AhAx Ahjx. I doubt he does this with even Khkx, because he could have been flopped to runner runner.

    Kempe, seems like an easy fold against Farrells range (either crushed or racing), same with Bicknell. Ho in a tough spot with 2 behind her, but cant see folding middle set there ever, shes really only drawing dead against JJ.

    So I would think Ho needs to GII now and maybe Bicknell needs to fold preflop. Her flat calling the button changed the dynamic of the hand completely.
    Last edited by thetrinity; 12-14-20 at 05:15 PM.

  7. #7
    boscokid
    boscokid's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-03-10
    Posts: 1,497

    SBR that's a 4 way all-in preflop. Probably a 4 way all-in on the flop too.

    Expect the case 10 about 50% of the time along with the 8 of hearts on the river. Looks like the Royal should hit about 20% of the time too. I guess running 9s has to hit 20% of the time also. Remaining 10% would be some combo of Jokers, Old Maids, Draw 4 wild and reverses

  8. #8
    sweep
    USA! USA! USA!
    sweep's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-10
    Posts: 16,753
    Betpoints: 2457

    -Kempe's raise in the highjack looks like a steal (barely over 2x)

    -Bicknell call on the button standard although Id prefer a 3-bet

    -Farrell bump to 4.5x in the SB a great play

    -Ho now needs to either 4-bet at least 2/3rds (or jam) facing a 10bb raise on the button with 56 bigs behind or FOLD

    the post flop play is horrific....


    Was she hoping for quads???

  9. #9
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 31,113
    Betpoints: 24611

    Quote Originally Posted by sweep View Post
    -Kempe's raise in the highjack looks like a steal (barely over 2x)

    -Bicknell call on the button standard although Id prefer a 3-bet

    -Farrell bump to 4.5x in the SB a great play

    -Ho now needs to either 4-bet at least 2/3rds (or jam) facing a 10bb raise on the button with 56 bigs behind or FOLD

    the post flop play is horrific....


    Was she hoping for quads???
    Sweep, happy holidays, bro. Hope all is good!

  10. #10
    stevek173
    stevek173's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-29-08
    Posts: 27,587
    Betpoints: 5940

    Just saw this

    Yes, that is the hand.

    She cannot fold there!

    Awesome stuff Chucky.
    Points Awarded:

    ChuckyTheGoat gave stevek173 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: sweep

Top