1. #1
    Auto Donk
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    Talking Stick Casino Cash Game: Big Hand Analysis/Feedback; What would you do????

    Okay, here's the setting, playing 2-3 nlhe at Talking Stick casino, in the game for about an hour, when this hand develops....

    I won't post the outcome of it yet, as I want to hear your thoughts/analysis of the hand up until my decision on the river. At this point, I've played only 2-3 significant hands in the first hour, and have my $300 buyin up to $380-390.

    Here's the hand.... Villian is a early 20's something know it all braggart, with the big stack at the table, around $1,200 or so.... He's on the big blind, raises it to 18 from 3 after I and two others limp in ahead of him. I call the $15 raise with JTen, the other two limpers fold. I have position on the raiser, here's the flop:

    10 9 2

    again, I have J 10, Villian has XX.

    Villian, first to act, bets 25, I call.

    turn: 5

    Villian: 75

    what would you do here?

    Donk, thinkin' one of two things here (over pair or bluff with ace big that has missed, maybe ace-ten), nevertheless calls the 75

    river: 5

    Villian takes some time stacking up about 175 chips, looks at my stack, seeing it has about 250-260 left, puts the $175 bet in......

    let me know what youre thinkin' this dickweed is up to, and what you'd do with your remaining chips, if anything....
    Last edited by Auto Donk; 04-23-17 at 09:46 AM.

  2. #2
    BigOrange
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    Raise or fold the turn depending on your read 90% of the time. I rarely call this turn bet unless I am certain he is bluffing and I want him to fire the third barrel. Raise from the big blind should lend you to believe he has a strong hand but he may just be trying to push around the table with his big stack. How many times has he raised out of position in the hour you have played and what kind of hands has he had to show down?

  3. #3
    Auto Donk
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    he'd been playing pretty solid, and wasn't bullying the table to any great extent. I knew it was one of two things (at least i'd made my mind up it was, either he raised with jj-kk preflop [normal preflop raises at table were usually in the 12-15 range], or he had ace big and had missed entirely). My gut was telling me he'd missed with ace big, because his turn bet seemed more like a steal/drive me out of the hand bet than an "I want to get paid with a call" bet.

  4. #4
    playersonly69
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    Well the guy isnt bluffing because if he was the he would just go all in on the river. i mean of the $175 he bet, you dont have much more.


    Sure he could have ace-king, but he probably checks the river with that hand. And he didnt win all of those chips by bluffing all night long. He won them by getting called. He probably had pocket queens

  5. #5
    SharpAngles
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    Donker you need to raise the flop bet with position here. It makes his hand much easier to read on later streets.

    How high was his kicker with that 5 ball he rivered you with?

  6. #6
    Auto Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpAngles View Post
    Donker you need to raise the flop bet with position here. It makes his hand much easier to read on later streets.

    How high was his kicker with that 5 ball he rivered you with?
    at the flop, i didn't want to make it a huge pot, as I only had 300+ on the table, and he's callin with ace big in all likelihood, hopin to catch up, particularly given his chipstack, or he reraises me all in at the flop if I raise, potentially..... smooth callin' allowed me to see a card, and if an ace hits, I know im beat (by either type of hand i put him on, ace big or an overpair) and get out for only the 25 called at the flop

    as it was, when it's a blank unless he's got 55, I feel I'm still ahead, and his 75 bet on the turn began to signal an out of position effort to run me out of the hand. again the smooth call on the turn, to see what the river had in store, with a decent amount of chips left if an ace hits and I have to bail on river.....

    when the five hits, and he stumbles around trying to calculate chips, I really felt he'd missed the hand and was definitely not hoping for a call with his 175 bet......

    SO, WHAT DOES DONK DO, HE "RERAISES" ALL-IN FOR THE REST OF HIS CHIPS ON RIVER.......

  7. #7
    USCPHILLYGUY
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    tough to say without seeing the guy playing but I think raising the turn bet gets you the answer you're looking for.

    If you raised all in on the river I'm assuming he is calling since its $75 more...didn't think these words would ever come out of my mouth but I tend to agree with PO69 with whats in his hand

  8. #8
    Ian
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    Preflop: Assuming that you aren't suited, fold originally. As played, after the raise, fold.

    JT offsuit is not a strong hand. You can do some things with it in position, but open limping from non-late position leaves you in a spot where you're hoping to outflop people with a hand that doesn't flop particularly strong. Yes, straights are possible, but usually when you hit it will be a lowish top pair with an iffy kicker or a straight draw that an in-position player can blow you off of. All told it's not worth it.

    After the raise, fold. Calling the raise is a worse mistake than open limping. Now when you call you are stuck between the aggressor and any players behind you. So you can flop a hand like top pair, call a bet from the preflop raiser with only a so-so hand, then have someone behind you raise or call and put you in a spot where you've put a decent amount of money in the pot with a hand that usually won't be good.

    Flop: As played, good. You are too strong to fold, but if you raise, better hands than yours will stick around and worse hands will either fold or (successfully) bluff you.

    Turn: Fold. Your opponent blasting almost full-pot on the turn is a sign of strength, so absent a read it's time to fold.

    River: Fold for pretty much the same reason as on the turn.

    Preflop decisions are usually not as important as postflop decisions, but here the preflop action you gave put you in the difficult postflop spot that you were in. Playing tighter pre keeps mistakes like this from compounding later in the hand.

    Just my opinion...
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  9. #9
    SharpAngles
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    I say raise the flop because you choose to limp pre and a limp call pre then raise in position postflop is a really gross spot for him to be in against a guy he's barely seen play. You will end it right there most times. I'm assuming you haven't been limping a lot and def haven't limped in and shown down garbage like J10 so if you have been I guess a call and evaluate turn is alright but I'd probably fold in that instance.

  10. #10
    Auto Donk
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    well, after he states 175 on riv, I say "if you got the overpair, nice hand.... I might as well put all of em in and call it a night if you do"....

    I push all my chips forward, and as the dealer starts to count out the 175 to see what's left, the guy mucks his cards..... says "nice call".....

    folded aq..... saved himself the roughly 75 or so more to call....


    and i should say, at this 2-3 table, most turn and river action didn't double up the pots, they simply c-bet or perhaps added another 20 to their bet on the flop, even when holding strong hands post flop....

    this guy's play on this hand had me convinced he wanted me out of the hand, and was trying to blow me off it. I could sense indecision from him, and certainly uneasiness when he went to bet the river.... I was convinced he'd missed given the uncharacteristic huge river bet, by standards at the table id seen in the first hour or so of play
    Last edited by Auto Donk; 04-23-17 at 07:34 PM.

  11. #11
    Auto Donk
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    ps, a lot of damn good insight from angles, bo, and ian.... yes, i admit i almost laid down the jten when he popped it, but hadn't played a hand in a good while, after playing ace big several times in the first 15 mins at the table, so I made the donk pre flop call.....

    again, the thing that kept me in the hand was his seeming nervousness and stammering around, whereas in the 3-4 hands he took down, he was cool as a cucumber..... I think he just convinced himself after the seeing the flop, he was bluffing it and willing to blast all three barrells....

  12. #12
    daneblazer
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    I agree with mostly all of what Ian says. Big mistake was limping in to begin with. Maybe if the table was a bunch of passive stations and it was JTs go ahead, but you're going to find yourself in a lot of tough spots by open limping.

    As played (and he didn't play it all that well), I would base my decision on his actions and your read on him and not whether he's nervous or a stammering around 20 something. He was attacking multiple limpers from the BB, so you can all but rule out a middling holding unless he's a maniac. So let's say TT-AA, AJ-AK... possibly 99, KQ, AT.

    TT-AA there's 30 combos

    48 combos of AJ, AQ, AK.

    So if you think the guy is lag or capable of pulling a string of bets like that off, you can justify calling him down. Another thing I wouldn't do is shove the river. after he bets A worse hand is never calling you there but a better hand always is. Save yourself the $

  13. #13
    Optional
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    I'd be pretty happy with myself if I called that one.

    Think I might have folded honestly.

  14. #14
    dadaas
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    I dont see problem with limping. You limped and you looked to hit hard. But you hit Top pair. In this situation you need to know what to do on flop. On the flop you are ready to play big pot with bad hand versus this guy only if you have a good read on him. In all other cases you should drop the flop because your goal is not to hit mediocre top pair, and if villain is aggresive you can predic turn bet too, so what you will do? Limp, Call, Call, Call, I am sorry to say but there is a word for this, it is called calling station...

    Dont be one, be agressor.

  15. #15
    Crypt
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    I agree with most posters on this one. By limp calling his bets you're basically telling him you're committed and have a weak hand. He knew where you were at easily. So it was a good play on his part to bet big whether he hit or not. If he did have overs you would have donated and if he was bluffing (being you only played 2-3 hands so far) there's a good probability you lay down your ten. He knows you're not chasing at that point and I think his bet was solid on river. In that spot he gets paid off more than not. In your spot you will get beat more times than "making a good call".

  16. #16
    sinmiedo
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    Donk, perfect read, nothing there, 2 pairs 10s and 5s that is a hand, you are behind to a big pair or a better 10.
    I would have raise the turn and get the money there, because the 25 bucks was a clear continuation bet with air. the 75 bet on the turn was to control the pot and the action, because it was a heavy pot for 75 he is betting less than 40%.
    Many of this testosterone loaded studs play this aggressive, see this all the time.
    One suggestion , time the player when he bets with a hand, fast betting = nothing, time his plays and how he pushes the chips is also very important, If he is looking at the dealer all the time, = strength pushing the chips with 2 hands = super strength .I have many more but I like to share this popular tells with you, as you know, the last thing I do is play cards or probabilities, 75% of the time I play the players.
    Sin
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  17. #17
    ZINISTER
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    Always go with your read! If you don't have a read, you are NOT playing poker. I might try to see if I could take it down with a check raise on Flop. He may still call to float one card if he is a sticky type feller. You bet the turn he is gone. Then you have done one of the most powerful moves in the game a Check/Raise. I understand the whole stack depth issue. But, by calling and checking the turn, it is costing you a lot more to get to showdown. You put most guys on their heels with a check/raise. You did what is "Most" important you went with your read. good Job!
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  18. #18
    Ballerholic
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    I've never played live so I don't know how different the game is, but I'll try to say what I would do if this happened online.

    Pre: I would just fold this hand as you are dominated by much better Jacks, Tens postflop and the hand isn't even suited which doesn't allow playability. If the flop comes JJx or TTx are you really that happy? You aren't going to get your whole stack in most likely and you are dominated often, you'd probably prefer to see 89x. When villain raises here (especially since live players call very light?) then he should have a strong hand most of the time. If villain has a pocket pair or suited connector he really should just be calling here.

    Flop: You have to call here as most players Cbet too much and will do so with air here. Air consists of stronger AJ+(for Ax air he shouldn't really have much as he shouldn't raise A8o. If he has A8s then it should be a call pre imo. Air is also KQ. Value hands consists of A9, AT, KT, QT, 99+. In villains head he's thinking that you limped pre so you don't have 99,TT and a majority of the time you have underpairs, weak pairs or some draw. Your only nutted hand on this flop is 22 and possibly T9s if you don't raise that pre.

    Turn: So turn is a brick and now he bets much bigger. On the turn I'm usually just folding here, but it depends on villain. Villain usually has a draw or just has you completely outkicked or beat. You block QJ which is bad thing here as doesn't have any nutted draws. On river draws can get there and even if they don't he can still have AT or QQ+. If river is a J are you happy? Not if he bets again. But yea if he's a good player he'll be able to tell that your range is extremely capped on that board. If you call once more it's not too bad imo against a thinking player, but again most aren't so he usually is just betting value and if he is a thinking player then he's going to be bluffing almost any river and making life difficult. The problem I see with raising here is that he's only calling with hands that beat you and maybe QJ which you block if he's getting proper odds.

    River: Unless villain has a volatile profile and you've seen him make crazy plays then this has to be a clear fold without any reads. There is a lot of value that he is betting here. Most players don't triple barrel enough in general with air so it really depends on how this player's thought process is. To be fair he is blocking AT,QT as well and can have all of the nutted hands whereas you can't. This is why you really shouldn't limp JT, because AT here is a much better call, but then again that is most likely raised pre and would change the dynamic of the hand

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