1. #1
    daneblazer
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    More Hand Scenarios - On the Bubble

    These are a little tougher.

    #1. $10 SNG. Four players left, on the bubble. Payouts are $45 for 1st, $27 for 2nd, $18 for 3rd. Blinds 200/400 and you have QQ in the BB with 5000 chips. A very bad lag (loose aggressive) player shoves UTG with 6000 chips. The two other players are short stacks with around 1200 each who fold around to you. You are crushing the bad lags range, but is it worth risking elimination when there are two players with 3bb at the table? What do you do?

    #2 Same situation. 4 handed on the bubble. Bad lag UTG shoves but this time the two short stacks call. Unless the shorties tie, you're positive at least one will be knocked out. You look and wake up in the BB with Aces. You have the best hand, but aren't assured of a win and you can move into the money with a fold. Call or Fold?

  2. #2
    RudyRuetigger
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  3. #3
    BeerDog99
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    I can't see how you could fold either hand.

    In scenario #1. Laying down QQ against a bad LAG open shove is very tight. Especially since you only have 12ish blinds. Easy call and hope your hand holds.

    In scenario #2, same easy call.. The extra chips in the pot and the near-guarantee min-cash just seals it for me. worst case, you are probably trying to fade a set and have one of them crushed.

  4. #4
    Phildo
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    I'd fold the first one because you will kick yourself if the guy wakes up with AK, KK, or AA, and if he's really that bad you will have much better spots to take his chips after you are already in the money.

    Second hand is a call, the only way it isn't a call is if you are in a satellite/survivor type tournament where all the payouts are equal.

  5. #5
    thetrinity
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    These are a little tougher.

    #1. $10 SNG. Four players left, on the bubble. Payouts are $45 for 1st, $27 for 2nd, $18 for 3rd. Blinds 200/400 and you have QQ in the BB with 5000 chips. A very bad lag (loose aggressive) player shoves UTG with 6000 chips. The two other players are short stacks with around 1200 each who fold around to you. You are crushing the bad lags range, but is it worth risking elimination when there are two players with 3bb at the table? What do you do?

    #2 Same situation. 4 handed on the bubble. Bad lag UTG shoves but this time the two short stacks call. Unless the shorties tie, you're positive at least one will be knocked out. You look and wake up in the BB with Aces. You have the best hand, but aren't assured of a win and you can move into the money with a fold. Call or Fold?
    1. that info makes it a super easy call. milwaukee mike may even call i think.

    2. seriously?

  6. #6
    Emily_Haines
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    2nd place is just the best LOSER

  7. #7
    yisman
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    call both, and in most prize structures, it would be an even easier call.
    Last edited by yisman; 11-04-12 at 07:22 PM.

  8. #8
    downsouth
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    These are a little tougher.

    #1. $10 SNG. Four players left, on the bubble. Payouts are $45 for 1st, $27 for 2nd, $18 for 3rd. Blinds 200/400 and you have QQ in the BB with 5000 chips. A very bad lag (loose aggressive) player shoves UTG with 6000 chips. The two other players are short stacks with around 1200 each who fold around to you. You are crushing the bad lags range, but is it worth risking elimination when there are two players with 3bb at the table? What do you do?

    #2 Same situation. 4 handed on the bubble. Bad lag UTG shoves but this time the two short stacks call. Unless the shorties tie, you're positive at least one will be knocked out. You look and wake up in the BB with Aces. You have the best hand, but aren't assured of a win and you can move into the money with a fold. Call or Fold?

    I have folded scenario#1 numerous times but knowing the initial shove is from a bad lag i'd have to be inclined to call knowing his range is so wide and winning basically guarantees me no worse than second as I have table crippled.
    However, in the majority of that scenario I am probably throwing that hand away. When I played volume SNGs I set myself a basic rule that below KK on bubble I was tossing when shoved on if I had the stack to justify.

    Scenario 2, KK AA was calling regardless. Only way I could not cash was for every hand to beat mine and two small stacks tie. Im sure it happened to me a time or two but you cannot lay down there

  9. #9
    daneblazer
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    Scenario 1... It's really hard to lay down QQ because you know you are crushing the lag's range, but I believe ICM predicates a fold. Tougher spot than it looks...win the hand and you're in the drivers seat, lose and you're done.

    Scenario 2 is a call. Not really the best example. If you had one of the short stacks call, it's still a call. There are rare times when you would fold AA but this isn't one of them. If you have QQ instead of AA in this situation, it's a little different. You can fold and move into the money risk free.

  10. #10
    thetrinity
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    Hand 1 reminds me a little of a hand one of my friends encountered live, although his situation was a bit tougher. A drunk completely reckless lady was running over a final table and had the majority of the chips. He was 2nd in chips and had roughly 10 big blinds (very fast structure turbo event live, i think 60 dollar buyin). 7 players were being paid and 8 are left. Folds to her in the cutoff (hand right b4 the button) and she shoves all in (has every1 covered easy). He asks me wat he should do with 10s and i say snap her off if you are playing for first, which you should be, he says well i folded and she showed k4 after the blinds passed. Guys who are advocating a fold in hand one are basically making it +ev for the maniac to shove any hand he wants.

    Now there are times to fold qq. I was on the bubble in a 100 dollar event about 4 years back (details r a little fuzzy here) and a nitty lady who played no hands almost shoves almost 20bbs utg at a full table and i get qq utg+1 and have roughly the same stack and i thought for a while and pass. The big blind is short stacked and ends up calling off the rest of his chips with an ace and she shows kk (ace hit just like sbr lol) but i was behind and wulda busted. It seemed like she was loaded every time in that spot, especially since about half the table could have crippled her or busted her.

    This is a very rare spot where i had played at her table and seen her fold hand after hand literally for hours, so i had some history, i personally wouldnt advocate that fold in a vacuum, it didnt seem like she wuld ever have jj to me.
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  11. #11
    daneblazer
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    Guys who are advocating a fold in hand one are basically making it +ev for the maniac to shove any hand he wants.
    Good points, as this hand is whether to call or fold is pretty thin.

    If UTG has 6000 you have 5000 Short Stack1 1250, Short Stack 2 1250

    With a $90 prize pool using the ICM shows the average amount we expect to win as

    UTG having approx $32 .5
    You $30.5
    SS1 $13.5
    SS2 $13.5

    Taking the bad lags range of Ax and Ax suited, pocket pairs, all broadways, Kx suited, and a generous amount of suited connectors (about 50% of all hands) QQ is a 75% favorite to win. So we're going to win 3 of 4 and lose 1 of 4.

    Upon winning our chip stack will be 11200, UTG will be 1000 SS2 1250, and SS1 will be 1050. However we only gain about $10 of equity from the prize pool as it goes from $30.5 to $40.5 (rounding numbers).

    So we're winning $10 of equity 3 times and losing $30.5 (everything) once. If he's truly shoving any two cards, QQ is an 80% favorite which helps the odds in our favor to call.

    What ICM doesn't do is take into account something you touched on...skill. I think if you are sure you are the best player on the table in this situation, fold. If the short stacks are solid SNG players or good TAG types with slightly more chips and know whats going on, your odds are better calling. Also if this maniac is someone you play against often you need to take a stand against him for the reason you said...not letting him run over everyone. If you're playing on Bovada or some place where you'll never see these guys again it won't matter. It's tough to do these calculations on the fly, but seeing these situations beforehand and knowing them in the back of your head helps.

    So all in all, it's a thin situation. Calling is acceptable, but folding actually is too.
    Last edited by daneblazer; 11-05-12 at 09:36 PM.

  12. #12
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    both snap calls for me..I play to win..if i bust in 4th, so be it

  13. #13
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    1. that info makes it a super easy call. milwaukee mike may even call i think.

    2. seriously?


    i might be the tightest player here and i'm not folding pocket queens 4 handed just to hope one of those small stacks gets eliminated.
    and never folding pocket aces preflop.

    in case you guys didn't see my rebuy tourney thread, DON'T do a 2nd rebuy with addon. the software took my 44 points (later refunded) and booted me out in 22nd place. now THAT'S a tough beat, almost certainly a 100 point cash at the worst...

  14. #14
    downsouth
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    both snap calls for me..I play to win..if i bust in 4th, so be it
    In multis I would 100% agree with this as min cashing long term does you no good but when playing single table or even 2-3 table SNGs you strategy can be adjusted.

    Now if Im weekend warrior Joe playing a SNG or two for fun then obviously its an easy snap call because your only playing to win. But when playing SNGs for volume I focus a lot more on what gives me greatest ROI and I think your ever so slightly higher EV play is a fold in that scenario, now of course when you know your guy is shoving wide range (which he honestly should be in that scenario) then your not wrong in calling either. With the chip stack in above scenario, assuming optimal play, you should have a stack thats enough to still have enough chips after bubble eliminated to buy off hands and push your strategy.

  15. #15
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Quote Originally Posted by downsouth View Post
    In multis I would 100% agree with this as min cashing long term does you no good but when playing single table or even 2-3 table SNGs you strategy can be adjusted.

    Now if Im weekend warrior Joe playing a SNG or two for fun then obviously its an easy snap call because your only playing to win. But when playing SNGs for volume I focus a lot more on what gives me greatest ROI and I think your ever so slightly higher EV play is a fold in that scenario, now of course when you know your guy is shoving wide range (which he honestly should be in that scenario) then your not wrong in calling either. With the chip stack in above scenario, assuming optimal play, you should have a stack thats enough to still have enough chips after bubble eliminated to buy off hands and push your strategy.
    I think it is +EV calling due to the fact that in the scenario the player is LAG and we are way ahead of the villians range. Furthermore, winning the hand all but seals up a 1st place.

  16. #16
    thetrinity
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    4 handed it would be hard to fold against even the tight players. its not like you can wait all day in these sit n gos for better spots, also no guarantee you outlast the shorties either.

    something no one has brought up yet in hand 1 is that this guy is probably not open shoving aa or kk in that spot. he still has 15 big blinds and is the chip leader. a shove of that size (effectively 12.5 bbs) is probably not a premium hand, most likely a 2nd level type hand that he doesnt want the big blind to be able to ship over (66-1010 maybe jj paired, aj-ak unpaired, since hes lag, maybe even a wider range then this), at any rate, highly unlikely its aa or kk.

  17. #17
    ActuaryDan
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    1. Fold. I'm folding AA here too. You're main goal is to cash first.
    2. Pretty easy call here.

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