[o5miley]

I've been running horrible playing 2/3 $100 NL buy in @ commerce casino in LA...
like running horrible as in like i don't even consider AA losing preflop as bad at all its like 4/5 favorite whatever.... im losing hands one after another being favorite of 90% roughly... what should i do? should i take a break, i kept grinding it out figuring the variance will switch over, or wtf that shit only happens one out of every 20 times...but probably my worst beats that keep sticking in my head are...

hero with 10-10 in sb villain in utg with K-10 (10 of clubs)

Villain opens preflop to $15
about 4 calls including button, i think about 3-popping to isolate & plus none of the tight players re-raised so ... , but of course i don't just call and decide to hit a set or see the flop... big blind calls..

flop comes 2 (club) 10 (diamond) 4(club)
i check, bb checks, villain bets roughly $45? folded around to me
I raise all for total of about $120-130 or so ... he calls (i think he has flush draw and maybe oesd with that)

Turn comes out some blank card but club...
River ha club

but anyways thats probably like the worst one as of far... but its constantly like that
& keep in mind i don't even care about any beat where villain had more than 5 outs from flop... basically anytime im 80% favorite and i lose i can shrug that off easily...
should i take a break? or what?? it seems like i'm seeing these beats so often that like i almost dont believe in math in poker anymore

[o5miley]

the variance/swings whatever u want to call it is just so nasty for me ... add to the fact i never play draws etc.. with incorrect pot odds/implied pot odds, unless im floating/semi-bluffing, so it's like i never get to return the favor

[YouHave2outs]

come on.

[o5miley]

come on what.. no i don't get 2 outters ha if thats what you're implying, cause i usually think about it and fold, this is live play its much softer than online... if your asking me come on can this kind of shit really be happening to me... yes it is, as of lately, im not sure the exact amount of times its been happening in comparison to the times it hasn't happened to me in the past.. uhm but its not like in the past i haven't had sick beats its just the beats weren't as often

[o5miley]

regardless i don't understand why you would say come on if you're a poker player... just cause you would understand this shit does happen... so anyone else with advice on poker psychology/philosophy for that matter..

[o5miley]

anyways it got to the point if i have a set, with more than 2 players to the flop, and if im leading out or check-raising and get a call, i'm like ******* worried he has a higher set... by the time all the chips are in the middle... well i guess that depends on the player (only when i respect the player) .. more than often probably if im holding bottom 2, im worried he has better 2 pair if the money goes in or whatever...

[The Giant]

I've been running horrible playing 2/3 $100 NL buy in @ commerce casino in LA...
like running horrible as in like i don't even consider AA losing preflop as bad at all its like 4/5 favorite whatever.... im losing hands one after another being favorite of 90% roughly... what should i do? should i take a break, i kept grinding it out figuring the variance will switch over, or wtf that shit only happens one out of every 20 times...but probably my worst beats that keep sticking in my head are...

hero with 10-10 in sb villain in utg with K-10 (10 of clubs)

Villain opens preflop to $15
about 4 calls including button, i think about 3-popping to isolate & plus none of the tight players re-raised so ... , but of course i don't just call and decide to hit a set or see the flop... big blind calls..

flop comes 2 (club) 10 (diamond) 4(club)
i check, bb checks, villain bets roughly $45? folded around to me
I raise all for total of about $120-130 or so ... he calls (i think he has flush draw and maybe oesd with that)

Turn comes out some blank card but club...
River ha club

but anyways thats probably like the worst one as of far... but its constantly like that
& keep in mind i don't even care about any beat where villain had more than 5 outs from flop... basically anytime im 80% favorite and i lose i can shrug that off easily...
should i take a break? or what?? it seems like i'm seeing these beats so often that like i almost dont believe in math in poker anymore

This is a bad beat, but it's not horrific by any means. When all the money went in you are only about a 71% favorite. You're going to lose this 3/10 times. He just happened to have a hand you really didn't want to see.

Just stay at a level you're comfortable with, and the variance will eventually turn around.

There is nothing else you can do. All you can do is play good, solid poker. You can't control the fate after that. Good luck.

[o5miley]

what u mean 71% favorite was my math off i saw it as 95%... i have pocket 10's and hit a set.. this old fart called me with K 10... i dont see any other thing that he could win with unless two runner clubs or two runner kings, and the board couldn't pair..

[The Giant]

what u mean 71% favorite was my math off i saw it as 95%... i have pocket 10's and hit a set.. this old fart called me with K 10... i dont see any other thing that he could win with unless two runner clubs or two runner kings, and the board couldn't pair..

Oh crap, my apologies, dude. I thought he had two clubs in his hand. I misread what you wrote.

I take back what I earlier said, that is a horrific beat.

[o5miley]

oh i get what u saw.. k-10 clubs.. but yea **** man i dont know what to do im scared to step in the casino lmao.. like im not confident about hands at all anymore, even my buddy has been hitting me when we go together.. he has k9 on button (hes a jackass) he raises my bb about 3-4x and like i think about folding but whatever one more guy in pot so i call... flop comes KKx... we all check.. turn 9... then river blank... not sure if turn or river was 9, but anyways so of course i lead out a little bit and he reraises me big and i want to fold so bad just cause what the **** else could he raise me with that he would raise preflop and check the flop.. lol but whatever since hes close friend i call just to see his gay hand

[daneblazer]

First of all if you're buying in at $100 in a 2/3 game expect a few swings.

What you don't want to do is it getting in your head and then going on tilt, which it sounds like you're close to doing if you haven't done it already. Take a break, reward yourself for playing well and not focus on wins and losses. Easier said than done, but have the ability to deal with these swings mentally separates a lot of really good players from just the good players.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOX1Hn-bw1k
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

Watch the video and take a look at the variance calculator. The good news is you're probably far from the worse run ever. I had a run of about 50k hands about 2 years ago that made my graph look like expected $ won and actual $ won took a 90 degree angle from each other.

[o5miley]

wow.. yeah like i understand what u mean by the swings based on the buy in + u dont even know the rake @ that casino cause they have a badbeat jackpot as well... but anyways uhm thanks you gave me encouragement to keep grinding... it's just so consistent lately i feel like maybe i just have bad luck on my side or something or like im not too religious but i believe in a greater power than myself and like i dunno maybe they are telling me something ... uhm the reason why i play there instead of a higher BB max table is just because i can easily outplay that table, maybe 3 of them on weekdays and roughly 5-7 of them on weekends.. so its like why bother with any higher limit, ive only tried the 2/5 over there with buy ins @ 200, and thats like 40 bb compared to 33, but unfortunately those guys are for the most part VERY LAG so its not worth it for me and for the most part the limit im playing is TAG or TAP.. any higher limit is above br

[o5miley]

you're the ******* man dane.. im watching these videos now and i love it

[o5miley]

like i know i should relate my losses recently towards my total wins, but its like **** why can't they be more... whats the word .. distributed? i dunno i wish it wasn't so streakkkkkkkkky like its ridiculously streaky, you don't think a double runner to win is bad? i mean yea hes 17% by the turn but wtf by the flop hes 5%... and as far as a 1 outer or 2 outer i get hit those as well...

[o5miley]

now how do i stop myself from being a bitch and being scared..

[BeerDog99]

I had a run of about 50k hands about 2 years ago that made my graph look like expected $ won and actual $ won took a 90 degree angle from each other.

LOL, I thought was only an anomaly for my hands. :-)