1. #1
    Jimmy Proffett
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    Need help with figuring out this probability

    Just running through some past hands and doing some math:

    The odds of 3 suited cards on a full community board are about 24%
    The odds of 4 suited cards on a full community board are about 3%

    Now if I wanted to calculate how often 3 or 4 suited cards appear on a full board, do I just add those percentages together? Or is there some fancy equation I'm missing?

    If anyone knows offhand, please help. Thanks!

  2. #2
    noober
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    I think u just add them

  3. #3
    scholesy
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    yes, just add those two percentages

  4. #4
    Blax0r
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    One note: only add those two probabilities if they are the mutually exclusive percentages; ie, 24% should represent exactly 3 suits, not 3 or more.

  5. #5
    Jimmy Proffett
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    Son of a bitch this is gonna take forever. I wonder if there's just software out there that I could plug in my hand histories and figure out all the odds I'm looking for.

    I've only gotten through my 1st 3 days I started saving hand histories. Interesting fact (not really, but oh well): Of the hands that have been played to a full community board, 42% have had 3 or more suited cards. The avg should be around 28%. I know lol sample size blah blah blah. I want to start looking at pairs on the flop too, # of times 2 pair is on the board, etc.....

    But I'm getting pre-occupied with just the way I'm running currently. There's no reason I should lose every single cash game pot with more than 20 points in the middle. I'm not saying I should have a winning session every time, but this shit's getting ridiculous.

    I truly don't understand why these multi-table donkaments reward the big stacks, but I proved today that they pretty obviously do. That's a whole other monster to tackle and examine.

    Back to the drawing board.

    Yimmy

  6. #6
    lolbear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Proffett View Post
    Son of a bitch this is gonna take forever. I wonder if there's just software out there that I could plug in my hand histories and figure out all the odds I'm looking for. I've only gotten through my 1st 3 days I started saving hand histories. Interesting fact (not really, but oh well): Of the hands that have been played to a full community board, 42% have had 3 or more suited cards. The avg should be around 28%. I know lol sample size blah blah blah. I want to start looking at pairs on the flop too, # of times 2 pair is on the board, etc..... But I'm getting pre-occupied with just the way I'm running currently. There's no reason I should lose every single cash game pot with more than 20 points in the middle. I'm not saying I should have a winning session every time, but this shit's getting ridiculous. I truly don't understand why these multi-table donkaments reward the big stacks, but I proved today that they pretty obviously do. That's a whole other monster to tackle and examine. Back to the drawing board. Yimmy
    no offense but if you do understand sample size blah blah blah you wouldn't find the percentages interesting, which you realized

    in terms of big stacks, it just depends on the table. the structure is ridiculously fast so as long as people doesn't fold every hand for some reason i don't think these tournaments reward the big stacks-- they are more like crapshoots

  7. #7
    nomeansno
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    I wouldn't waste my time on this if I were you, put this effort into improving your game instead. More rewarding than counting paired boards etc.

  8. #8
    BeerDog99
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    For what it is worth Jimmy, I agree with the general feedback.

    While I generally think you (in particular) have hit me with some cold decks and I have been generally unlucky, the general reasons I have not won of late is my poor play.

    For you, I would probably guess that you have started to run a little cold but if you don't change your game in a negative way (like in the tourney), I would bet you will see a return to the profits you have been seeing.

    Cheers and good luck.

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