[ttwarrior1]

Should US Players Hit Merge, Bodog, or Cake Following Black Friday?

Some fans of Killer Poker Analysis have been asking me whether Merge, Bodog, or Cake are viable online poker options for US players following Black Friday. Personally, I had no money in these sites before Black Friday, and I haven’t put any money on these sites since. If the DoJ went after PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP, then it’s only a matter of time before the DoJ goes after Merge, Bodog, and Cake. After all, is Merge, Bodog, or Cake conducting business differently from how PokerStars, Full Tilt, or UB/AP did? If the DoJ thinks they have a case against PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP, then I’d be shocked if the DoJ couldn’t build similar cases against Merge, Bodog, and Cake.


There’s a chance that the DoJ might not pursue action against Merge, Bodog, or Cake until they can make charges stick to (or make settlements with) PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP. And if this is the case, there’s probably a timeline on the order of months for Merge, Bodog, and Cake to be somewhat viable playing options for US players. However, a timeline on the order of months is pure speculation. The bottom line here is that unless the DoJ can’t settle with PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP – and then fails to make any charges stick – it’s only a matter of time before Black Friday repeats itself with Merge, Bodog, and Cake.


It’s probably highly unlikely that funds seized in a second wave would be kept by the money-hungry US government. But given that a prosecution precedent now exists, I think that the US government will be less lenient with Merge, Bodog, and Cake – and less understanding of those in the US who choose to play for real money at those sites. We can all be confident in getting money back from PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP, but I don’t know if we can be as confident in getting our money back from Merge, Bodog, or Cake despite our legal system being based on the premise of “innocent until proven guilty.”


Suppose that the DoJ were to allow for Merge, Bodog, and Cake to give balances back to US players? Even if this were to happen, how confident can we be in getting our money back? Bodog’s non-poker business is robust enough where the probability of getting stiffed by Bodog is probably very close to 0. Merge and Cake are less certain. Before putting money on to Merge or Cake, I’d want to randomly sample tables at various times of the day – in an attempt to gauge the percentage of US players. If the percentage of US players were to be high, I’d stay away. If the percentage of US players were to be low, I’d feel safer.


Personally, I’m staying away from online poker until online poker businesses are able to serve US players without any legal ambiguity on any front (after all, being able to play legally means nothing if online poker sites don’t have a legal means by which they can transfer funds to and from player accounts). Granted, this decision is largely motivated by the availability of live poker Las Vegas. I know that some are saying that it’s important to play on Merge, Bodog, or Cake – to make a statement that US citizens want to exercise their right to engage in leisurely activities of their choosing in the privacy of their own homes. However, members of Congress aren’t going to care about traffic numbers on Merge, Bodog, and Cake. As ******* out in Black Friday: A Wake-Up Call for a Broken Nation, we have a Congress filled with elected representatives that don’t act for the people and by the people. We have a Congress that acts for special interest groups and for those with deep pockets. Thinking and writing are what I do best, so that’s what I’ve been doing. However, at some point, the US people need to do more than rant on the internet. We need to act. Only through tangible action can we:


1.) Overhaul Congress as it currently exists
2.) Get all fourth degree laws off the books
3.) Return the US to its libertarian roots.


To the question cited in this blog entry’s title, my answer is this. I’m currently not playing online poker until online poker operations are able to serve US customers without any legal ambiguity on any front. And for those with easy to access to live poker, taking my route seems to make the most sense. For those without easy access to live poker, I don’t think playing on Merge, Bodog, or Cake is absolutely horrible. And the lower the percentage of US players on your site of choice, the less horrible your decision to play online becomes. But you should only be playing on Merge, Bodog, or Cake as long as you’re fine with losing all the money in your account. After all, even if online poker were to be unambiguously legal on all fronts, it would still be poor form to have money you need in an online poker account. Having money you care about in an online poker account is simply bad life management.


May Your EV Always Be Positive!


Tony Guerrera


P.S. I hope that I’ll be able to implement my tournament endgame knowledge where it’s most effective (multitabling online tournaments) sooner rather than later!




Good read from Tony

[borednaz]

I have no money on any of the above sites. But honestly I think they especially Bodog would be a safe enough bet. Most of Bodog's money comes off sports which will ensure even with offshore funds that they will be able to repay you if they do get "caught". But let's make a very open point right now; FTP/PS were all very open with their constant ads/tv shows. They waived it in the DOJ's faces every single day in every way imaginable.

They have done that for years.. It took this long to bust them. Also another key point that played a huge factor is these idiots actually owned US BASED BANKS/Preprocessors which with government oversight was almost 100% sure to get noticed. Bottom line here is the big 3 did everything possible to say "HEY LOOK AT ME OVER HERE, GO **** YOURSELVES I"LL DO WHAT I WANT"

We all just kind of laughed about it all these years like we do with all our dumb ass drunk friends who make public asses out of themselves. Pay no attention to it & it will go away kind of thing..cept it did go away but with our money.

I will be depositing with sportsbooks in the future, might even consider a hundred @ bodog to get my poker fix. It will take years for this to wrap up in the courts with how slow our court system runs, which means precedent to capture other sites won't be in force till then. Enjoy your runs now boys, it's going to be rough ahead.

[jarretman]

i think they went after the big sites and will leave the little sites alone for now but i agree u know you will get the money from bodog but why just poker they can get sportsbooks also just not poker so look out

[sinmiedo]

bodog never has a problem sending cheques
merge is a bit more complicated, they charge 15 dollars for a cheque.
cake : i do not know

[ttwarrior1]

The shuttering of Full Tilt’s American market has made ripples in the UK. Today, a televised poker tournament scheduled to begin in Cardiff stopped filming, because Full Tilt was unable to produce promised money to fund the tournament. Full Tilt Poker, based in Dublin, Ireland, was the event sponsor, and had promised to pay a guaranteed prize pool. Six professional players, sponsored by Full Tilt, were unable to buy-in for $20,000, the entry fee.
“The money hadn’t come through for some of the players, basically the Full Tilt ones,” said Megan Stuart, director. “We would have been staging the tournament under false pretences had we carried on.”
The collapse of the event, and the sponsored, yet cashless, professional players speaks volumes of Full Tilt’s financial status. Due to the FBI’s legal actions against Full Tilt, the company is apparently cash strapped, without the ability to reimburse its sponsored players.
Last week, the FBI restored Full Tilt’s domain name, for the purpose of releasing funds to US customers requesting withdrawals. As expected, players rushed to withdraw money, while Full Tilt offered the following uneasy explanation: “Significant practical and legal impediments to returning funds to players in the immediate future. Full Tilt Poker has no accounting of the millions of dollars of player funds that were seized by the government.”
Preet Bharara, the attorney who originally filed against the four largest poker sites in the world, said, “No individual player accounts were ever frozen or restrained, and each implicated poker company has at all times been free to reimburse any player’s deposited funds.”
An apparent closedown of Full Tilt sponsorship does not speak well of the company’s current status, but with most of the cards still left in the deck, there are still no sure bets on any company’s future.

[ArunSh]

I'm scared to hit any site at this point, who knows who is next on the list, and the others might not be as reputable in getting us our $ back should they get in legal trouble...

[zjohnzzz]

playing on them sites, goverment needs a reality check

[Czu81]

thanks the article tt warrior... I wouldn't deposit those sites....

[bigdog3580]

I wouldnt but thats just my opinion.

[apkboston]

i would suggest avoiding them and playing live

[oldstylecubsfan]

I think if merge, cake and bodog does get proceuted, players wont have too many problems getting money back. Theres already a precedent sent by black friday. Plus the DOJ isnt going after the players.

[Scratch]

the big three got busted because they had set up payment processors in the US.

I know Bodog doesn't. They've been through this and learned their lesson several years ago.

[muldoon]

Bodog is very soft if you're patient.

[Lockitup1x]

Bodog is probably the best bet for most players. If Bodog wants to grow, all they have to do is tweak their player rewards system and poker software / client to cater to old PS & FT players. The question is; do they want to grow? If the poker part of their operation gets too big, they might be next... and jeopardize their sportsbook operation in the process.

[sinmiedo]

IMO Merge network will take it.
Best soft and best rake back program 30%
Bodog gives you just a finger.
But for best payment Bodog

[garretman]

i think u are safe with theses sites the us has it's hands full with the big sites right now