1. #1
    Matt Landes
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    NFL Week 6 - Old Friends in High Places: A Point Blank Community

    It was a humbling Week 5 for some of us, assuming I'm not on an island.

    17-0 Dolphins in the second half looked pretty good for those of us with +6.5 tickets and maybe even a little Miami ML in pocket.

    An early-week lead on Titans at -3 felt good when the point spread had doubled by kickoff.

    As did a variety of early investments on the Broncos - a couple 6-point teasers crossing through 3 and 7, plus some ML action at +115 - seemed promising when Denver closed as a consensus road favorite.

    But it was an "Occupational Privilege Tax" kind of day in several regards, and that comes with the territory of this endeavor. Fortunately we get the opportunity to turn the page and hold steady in trusting that small edges will win out over the long run.

    On that note, early openers of Minnesota -10 and Chicago -2.5 are my first two wagers on the Week 6 board. They're more of a market handicap than anything else - if enough money comes in on the favorites, there could be some maneuverability around key numbers; if not, those numbers may still hold a small amount of value as-is come Sunday. A Cleveland/Tennessee teaser has also made its way into the preliminary portfolio for this week.

    As noted in the college thread kickoff, the next few weeks will be a fever pitch in terms of work and personal obligations so my participation may temporarily become a bit sporadic, but it remains a priority to keep the ball rolling with the start of each new week and to weigh in any time there's a chance to add something of value.

    Speaking of value, it's on to the Week 6 NFL board....

    2-MINUTE DRILL

    It might literally be just a two-minute read this week - in lieu of a preamble, let's cut to the chase....

    TENNESSEE +3 VS. BALTIMORE

    This is closer to what I'd make the spread on a neutral field. Both teams were underwhelming in defeat last week, but with the Ravens as the short favorite on the lookahead line I don't see what warrants the adjustment to making them favorites by a full field goal. The Titans beat the Bills by virtually every measure except the scoreboard and enter this game in the much better spot, at home vs. a beleaguered Baltimore bunch facing its third straight road game after back-to-back battles with division rivals, the most recent of which went nearly the full OT period.

    +3 is widely available in Vegas and offshore at extra vig (I like it up to -120), although for those whose best option is +2.5 Tennessee makes for an enticing teaser possibility. Keep reading and you'll find a couple of candidates with whom to pair the Titans....

    NEW ENGLAND -3.5 VS. KANSAS CITY

    This is both a bet on the Patriots and against the Chiefs, although if Kansas City covers again I'll need to strongly consider the weekly pattern of fading them. That pattern is not by intent, as I've been blown away by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense this season, but when the point spread starts to reflect a certain premium any admiration for Mahomes, Andy Reid & Co. takes a back seat.

    On the pro-New England side, Tom Brady's supporting cast is looking as strong now at it has at any point yet this season. With Julian Edelman back in the fold, Josh Gordon continuing to ramp up as a deep threat, and Rob Gronkowski looming as a matchup nightmare, it's a "pick your poison" predicament for opposing defenses - not to mention the emerging two-headed monster out of the backfield, with James White serving as a safety blanket in the passing game and Sony Michel seemingly hitting his stride in the ground game.

    A lot of parallels can be drawn to Kansas City's offense, with dynamic options everywhere you look, but one thing the Chiefs can't match is the spot for the Patriots - in their third straight home game and on extra rest off a Thursday Night win in Week 5, they should be primed for their best effort in prime time come Sunday.

    And as electrifying as the Kansas City offense has been, the defense appears to be getting by on the skin of its teeth. Defensively the Chiefs rank third-to-last in yards per play allowed at a whopping 6.5, yet their 29.31% third-down conversion rate ranks second in the league. With that kind of disparity something's gotta give. I'm inclined to trust the more predictive metric in yards per play, and also to trust the Patriots in kick-starting the process of regression to the mean on third down.

    PICK OF THE WEEK: TEASER - INDIANAPOLIS +8.5 AT JETS, PITTSBURGH +8.5 AT CINCINNATI

    There's a mathematical component in taking the Colts up through 3 and 7 in a game that doesn't project to be high-scoring, but that's not all. Looking at the lines for the Jets at home this week and last against opponents of very similar caliber is rather alarming - Denver closed at pick 'em if not a slight favorite in a difficult spot off an all-in Monday Night effort, while Indianapolis is catching 2.5 coming in on extra rest after playing last week on Thursday night. Even after adjusting for the Week 5 results, that seems like a bit much. It's no surprise if the Colts win this one, so it's fair game to expect them to keep it competitive.

    In the second leg, it's the Steelers crossing up through 3 and 7. While Pittsburgh finally put together a complete effort in soaring past the Falcons last week, I think the value here stems from the market's perception of the Bengals. Cincinnati's 4-1 record is undoubtedly impressive, but it could just as easily be 1-4 - they were 50/50 at best in the late stages of a Week 1 win in Indianapolis and a Week 4 victory in Atlanta, then last week needed a defensive score in the fourth quarter to win the game plus a second one to somehow cover after trailing by 14 in the final period as 6-point favorites. This line implies evenly matched teams, whereas I see the Steelers as clearly superior. As with the Colts I think they're live to win it outright, although keeping it within a possession can get the teaser ticket home.

    "COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES" - BEER OF THE WEEK




    Beer: Saison Dupont
    Brewery: Brasserie Dupont (Belgium)
    Style: Saison
    ABV: 6.5%

    As we enter a time of year that still feels like summer in some parts of the country with fall taking full effect in others, it's a good time for a versatile beer. In my book that calls for a saison - arguably the most versatile of all beer styles - and in particular it calls for Saison Dupont, the gold standard of the style. Some may recall that Saison Dupont came up in the extended food and beer pairing segment of last year's Thanksgiving week episode of House of Yards. Right now, it's worthy of a deeper appreciation.

    From the standpoint of the drinking experience, Saison Dupont checks off all the boxes: coppery blond in appearance with a fluffy white head; exceptionally nuanced yeast-driven notes of banana, bread and clove; and a light but highly carbonated body with a crisp, dry finish. But what really elevates Saison Dupont is its authenticity and its history. Since 1844, Brasserie Dupont has brewed this beer in its farm-brewery during the winter in Belgium - the epitome of a "farmhouse ale." After refermentation in the barrel, it was ready to quench the thirst of field workers during the summer. Fast forward almost 175 years and it remains "a thirst-quencher with no equal," as its makers proclaim.

    A glass of Saison Dupont is a delicious journey back to a special time and place that reminds us the changing of seasons doesn't necessarily mean the changing of all that is good.

    Rating: 4.5 out of 5
    Last edited by Matt Landes; 10-11-18 at 08:01 PM.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: SportsHec8

  2. #2
    peterose4hof
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    Good call on the Vikes Matt. The Cardinals will be on the road for the 2nd straight week and their defense has to be gassed after facing 90+ plays and being on the field for over 40 minutes.

    The numbers from that game are strange to say the least.

    ARIZ/SF
    Poss 19:48 / 40:12
    Yds 220 / 447
    1st Downs 10 / 33
    Final Score 28 / 18

    Of course the telltale stat is +5 TO Diff for Ariz.

    There was much discussion this past week about Mia/Cin game. I ended up not playing either side because of all the uncertainty with injuries. The Dolphins were missing 6 opening day starters including Cameron Wake (who never misses) and the Bengals were replacing their center, lost their pass-catching change-of-pace back and their star TE. The game was very evenly played and either side could have pulled out the cover, but it definitely felt like a game with too much possibility for variance to be risking the bankroll on.

    I like your early teaser play as well. Two home dogs getting more than a TD in games where the totals are low 40s sounds like a recipe for success.

    Can anyone explain what is going on with the Denver defense?
    Last edited by peterose4hof; 10-08-18 at 11:59 AM.

  3. #3
    SportsHec8
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    that Mia loss goes down as one of the worst Ive ever had, especially considering it was the largest value play my model has ever had.

    Two defensive TD's in the 4q to lose the cover by 3.5... ouch!!

    Overall a disastrous week for me, 0-5 on sides with Washington +7 Pending tonight.

    I jumped immediately on Phi -3 and u43 AZ/Min.

    Will post some Strength of Schedule analysis tomorrow

  4. #4
    skislope
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    Enjoy the read

  5. #5
    peterose4hof
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    Here's a good read on how and why the Jets RBs had a record day against the Broncos defense.

    Fatigue and scheme had a lot to do with it.

    https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/10/07/is...record-broncos

    "The plan, on almost half of Crowell’s carries, seemed to be a highly advantageous (for the Jets) six-man box. The Jets managed to prey on Denver’s aggressive, pass-rushing ends and ran Crowell almost exclusively on passing downs—that meant most of the time, there was an even six-on-six matchup between Denver’s two linemen, ends and linebackers and the Jets’ five offensive linemen and blocking tight end."

    "By an unofficial count, on Crowell’s 15 carries, the Broncos missed eight tackles. He also created four missed tackles via juke move or step back. It was a mix of both inspired performance and gassed defense. Denver was coming off short rest and a gutting loss to the division-rival Chiefs. It was their second east coast road trip in three weeks."

  6. #6
    golfnutt67
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
    that Mia loss goes down as one of the worst Ive ever had, especially considering it was the largest value play my model has ever had.

    Two defensive TD's in the 4q to lose the cover by 3.5... ouch!!
    Overall a disastrous week for me, 0-5 on sides with Washington +7 Pending tonight.

    I jumped immediately on Phi -3 and u43 AZ/Min.

    Will post some Strength of Schedule analysis tomorrow
    Yep that was a disaster and almost impossible to allow that someone needs to coach Tannahill on how to properly execute the throw away LOL. Rough week for me as well 2-3 but after licking the wounds I still think it was a good play and only a fluke they didn't cover, but we saw things like this across the board and it was one of those twilight zone weekends as far as i am concerned.

    Going forward one thing i will be all over is Vikes TT O, and every way imaginable to take advantage of the Cards D. They were on the field for over 90 plays and have the early time slot which is normally a horrible spot of them historically. Coming off their first win I love fading them in any and all ways this week.....

  7. #7
    puffkit
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    would like feedback on a couple games i'm looking at

    sea -2.5. this seems like two teams moving in diff directions. sea has found a dual rb run game....this just opens up play action and we know how awesome russell is at that....add in that oaklands D is horrible and i just see sea outscoring oak here (i like the over too). oak is a mentally fragile team and chuckie is throwing someone under the bus each week......sea hasnt been to london before so i see that as the only possible drawback.....there were all blowouts last year so i can see this as a sea 34-17 kind of game.


    den +7....seems like a horrible spot for LA. off b2b track meet games giving up 30+ in each....not that there has been much bad weather yet but rams have played 3 in LA, 1 at oak and 1 at sea now going to altitude with COLD (20s) temps and possibly snow. two best wrs possibly back off concussions....i'm guessing it doesnt help any to come back from concussions w cold temps....... den only bettable at home and off embarassing effort. den can run the ball (if they learned anything from kc loss) and rams are susceptible to run. ......hope +7.5 comes back around but if not 7 is ok.

  8. #8
    SBR Drew
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    Great post Matt thanks for keeping this going.

    BTP
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    donation 02/15/2018


  9. #9
    Matt Landes
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    2-MINUTE DRILL

    It might literally be just a two-minute read this week - in lieu of a preamble, let's cut to the chase....

    TENNESSEE +3 VS. BALTIMORE

    This is closer to what I'd make the spread on a neutral field. Both teams were underwhelming in defeat last week, but with the Ravens as the short favorite on the lookahead line I don't see what warrants the adjustment to making them favorites by a full field goal. The Titans beat the Bills by virtually every measure except the scoreboard and enter this game in the much better spot, at home vs. a beleaguered Baltimore bunch facing its third straight road game after back-to-back battles with division rivals, the most recent of which went nearly the full OT period.

    +3 is widely available in Vegas and offshore at extra vig (I like it up to -120), although for those whose best option is +2.5 Tennessee makes for an enticing teaser possibility. Keep reading and you'll find a couple of candidates with whom to pair the Titans....

    NEW ENGLAND -3.5 VS. KANSAS CITY

    This is both a bet on the Patriots and against the Chiefs, although if Kansas City covers again I'll need to strongly consider the weekly pattern of fading them. That pattern is not by intent, as I've been blown away by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense this season, but when the point spread starts to reflect a certain premium any admiration for Mahomes, Andy Reid & Co. takes a back seat.

    On the pro-New England side, Tom Brady's supporting cast is looking as strong now at it has at any point yet this season. With Julian Edelman back in the fold, Josh Gordon continuing to ramp up as a deep threat, and Rob Gronkowski looming as a matchup nightmare, it's a "pick your poison" predicament for opposing defenses - not to mention the emerging two-headed monster out of the backfield, with James White serving as a safety blanket in the passing game and Sony Michel seemingly hitting his stride in the ground game.

    A lot of parallels can be drawn to Kansas City's offense, with dynamic options everywhere you look, but one thing the Chiefs can't match is the spot for the Patriots - in their third straight home game and on extra rest off a Thursday Night win in Week 5, they should be primed for their best effort in prime time come Sunday.

    And as electrifying as the Kansas City offense has been, the defense appears to be getting by on the skin of its teeth. Defensively the Chiefs rank third-to-last in yards per play allowed at a whopping 6.5, yet their 29.31% third-down conversion rate ranks second in the league. With that kind of disparity something's gotta give. I'm inclined to trust the more predictive metric in yards per play, and also to trust the Patriots in kick-starting the process of regression to the mean on third down.

    PICK OF THE WEEK: TEASER - INDIANAPOLIS +8.5 AT JETS, PITTSBURGH +8.5 AT CINCINNATI

    There's a mathematical component in taking the Colts up through 3 and 7 in a game that doesn't project to be high-scoring, but that's not all. Looking at the lines for the Jets at home this week and last against opponents of very similar caliber is rather alarming - Denver closed at pick 'em if not a slight favorite in a difficult spot off an all-in Monday Night effort, while Indianapolis is catching 2.5 coming in on extra rest after playing last week on Thursday night. Even after adjusting for the Week 5 results, that seems like a bit much. It's no surprise if the Colts win this one, so it's fair game to expect them to keep it competitive.

    In the second leg, it's the Steelers crossing up through 3 and 7. While Pittsburgh finally put together a complete effort in soaring past the Falcons last week, I think the value here stems from the market's perception of the Bengals. Cincinnati's 4-1 record is undoubtedly impressive, but it could just as easily be 1-4 - they were 50/50 at best in the late stages of a Week 1 win in Indianapolis and a Week 4 victory in Atlanta, then last week needed a defensive score in the fourth quarter to win the game plus a second one to somehow cover after trailing by 14 in the final period as 6-point favorites. This line implies evenly matched teams, whereas I see the Steelers as clearly superior. As with the Colts I think they're live to win it outright, although keeping it within a possession can get the teaser ticket home.

    "COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES" - BEER OF THE WEEK




    Beer: Saison Dupont
    Brewery: Brasserie Dupont (Belgium)
    Style: Saison
    ABV: 6.5%

    As we enter a time of year that still feels like summer in some parts of the country with fall taking full effect in others, it's a good time for a versatile beer. In my book that calls for a saison - arguably the most versatile of all beer styles - and in particular it calls for Saison Dupont, the gold standard of the style. Some may recall that Saison Dupont came up in the extended food and beer pairing segment of last year's Thanksgiving week episode of House of Yards. Right now, it's worthy of a deeper appreciation.

    From the standpoint of the drinking experience, Saison Dupont checks off all the boxes: coppery blond in appearance with a fluffy white head; exceptionally nuanced yeast-driven notes of banana, bread and clove; and a light but highly carbonated body with a crisp, dry finish. But what really elevates Saison Dupont is its authenticity and its history. Since 1844, Brasserie Dupont has brewed this beer in its farm-brewery during the winter in Belgium - the epitome of a "farmhouse ale." After refermentation in the barrel, it was ready to quench the thirst of field workers during the summer. Fast forward almost 175 years and it remains "a thirst-quencher with no equal," as its makers proclaim.

    A glass of Saison Dupont is a delicious journey back to a special time and place that reminds us the changing of seasons doesn't necessarily mean the changing of all that is good.

    Rating: 4.5 out of 5

  10. #10
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    would like feedback on a couple games i'm looking at

    sea -2.5. this seems like two teams moving in diff directions. sea has found a dual rb run game....this just opens up play action and we know how awesome russell is at that....add in that oaklands D is horrible and i just see sea outscoring oak here (i like the over too). oak is a mentally fragile team and chuckie is throwing someone under the bus each week......sea hasnt been to london before so i see that as the only possible drawback.....there were all blowouts last year so i can see this as a sea 34-17 kind of game.


    den +7....seems like a horrible spot for LA. off b2b track meet games giving up 30+ in each....not that there has been much bad weather yet but rams have played 3 in LA, 1 at oak and 1 at sea now going to altitude with COLD (20s) temps and possibly snow. two best wrs possibly back off concussions....i'm guessing it doesnt help any to come back from concussions w cold temps....... den only bettable at home and off embarassing effort. den can run the ball (if they learned anything from kc loss) and rams are susceptible to run. ......hope +7.5 comes back around but if not 7 is ok.
    Seattle/Oakland seems a little high-variance so I don't have much to offer there. In Denver I can only look toward the Broncos largely for the reasons you've outlined. It's looking as if we're more likely to see 6.5 than 7.5, so come kickoff +7 might have a little extra value to it.

  11. #11
    golfnutt67
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    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    would like feedback on a couple games i'm looking at

    sea -2.5. this seems like two teams moving in diff directions. sea has found a dual rb run game....this just opens up play action and we know how awesome russell is at that....add in that oaklands D is horrible and i just see sea outscoring oak here (i like the over too). oak is a mentally fragile team and chuckie is throwing someone under the bus each week......sea hasnt been to london before so i see that as the only possible drawback.....there were all blowouts last year so i can see this as a sea 34-17 kind of game.


    den +7....seems like a horrible spot for LA. off b2b track meet games giving up 30+ in each....not that there has been much bad weather yet but rams have played 3 in LA, 1 at oak and 1 at sea now going to altitude with COLD (20s) temps and possibly snow. two best wrs possibly back off concussions....i'm guessing it doesnt help any to come back from concussions w cold temps....... den only bettable at home and off embarassing effort. den can run the ball (if they learned anything from kc loss) and rams are susceptible to run. ......hope +7.5 comes back around but if not 7 is ok.
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Seattle/Oakland seems a little high-variance so I don't have much to offer there. In Denver I can only look toward the Broncos largely for the reasons you've outlined. It's looking as if we're more likely to see 6.5 than 7.5, so come kickoff +7 might have a little extra value to it.
    snow in the forecast LAR have 2 WR in protocol may not want to risk them in the cold....I like the Den pick here for sure. I cant get a good read on Oak/Sea with the game abroad I just dont have a feel either way

  12. #12
    deltonmyers
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    I like the SEA pick and took the -2.5 myself. I think Seattle has been playing a little bit better than Oakland and I like the fact that they are spending more time getting settled in to the London area. I think Oakland finally flies out today.

  13. #13
    Winner211
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    Quote Originally Posted by golfnutt67 View Post
    snow in the forecast LAR have 2 WR in protocol may not want to risk them in the cold....I like the Den pick here for sure. I cant get a good read on Oak/Sea with the game abroad I just dont have a feel either way
    I agree, the Raiders game is in the right range for me and I have no clue there

    I also agree, that I do like Denver here for sure

    Also on Jets -2.5 and wash pickem

    Think the KC/NE total is too high at 60...but I see this line holding due to perceptions

  14. #14
    spindoc932
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    hey fellas...been busy over here- had a baby 10 days ago.....however business goes on

    ***Update*** Point Blank is 21-13-1 in the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge after a 3 week run of 5-2, 4-2-1, and 5-2...It wouldve been 6-1 if Miami didnt blow that game....The leader stands at 25-8-1 so we are in reach...Here is my full card this week in the contest....5 CFB and 2 rock solid NFL

    Duke +3 at ga tech......bad spot GT off back to back 60 pt outings...Duke is legendary as an underdog under Cutcliffe and Duke is off a bye

    Iowa St +6.5 vs West Va.......home dog, west va is super overrated as the #6 team in country...iowa st has knack of beating top teams...love this pick

    Michigan -8 vs Wisc.......Wisc has the biggest injury report i have ever seen. Their entire defense is a mash unit... Mich is due to blow out a solid team and this is the spot... Mich will score on D

    PSU -13.5 vs Mich St.......alot of points? yea but Mich St is absolutely done...no chance of playing in big 10 title game or getting to a good bowl. They have key injuries all over the place as well....PSU is off a loss and a bye and stylr points will matter...Frankin will have no problem running p score and dont be surprised if PSU wins 45-17

    Georgia -7.5 at LSU.......this is my least favorite pick of the 7......im very bearish on LSU...I had Fla last week and im taking Ga this week... Ga does nothing wrong...I think they will take the crowd out of the game and wear down the LSU D in the 2nd H and win 31-20

    Atl -3.5 TB.........GUYS, i love this game...I bet it at -3.....I know Atl is insanely banged up on D......I know TB is off a bye....But theres no way Atl thinks their season is over. They are 1-4 but they have NYG at home next week. If they win here, they will be 3-4 after next week and right back in it..... I dont really want to watch this game bc it will be very frustrating watching TB scoring on multiple long plays but tl should be able to outscore them and score at will...Atl 38-30

    Pitt +2.5 at Cincy........what would this line be if Bullock didnt hit a 50 yd FG late in 3rd Q to get cincy off life support and make it 17-3 miami?? If he misses that FG, miami prob wins 24-7 and this line is Pitt -2.5.....This line is crazy and i love Pitt....Pitt 34-24

  15. #15
    golfnutt67
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    Quote Originally Posted by spindoc932 View Post
    hey fellas...been busy over here- had a baby 10 days ago.....however business goes on

    ***Update*** Point Blank is 21-13-1 in the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge after a 3 week run of 5-2, 4-2-1, and 5-2...It wouldve been 6-1 if Miami didnt blow that game....The leader stands at 25-8-1 so we are in reach...Here is my full card this week in the contest....5 CFB and 2 rock solid NFL

    Duke +3 at ga tech......bad spot GT off back to back 60 pt outings...Duke is legendary as an underdog under Cutcliffe and Duke is off a bye

    Iowa St +6.5 vs West Va.......home dog, west va is super overrated as the #6 team in country...iowa st has knack of beating top teams...love this pick

    Michigan -8 vs Wisc.......Wisc has the biggest injury report i have ever seen. Their entire defense is a mash unit... Mich is due to blow out a solid team and this is the spot... Mich will score on D

    PSU -13.5 vs Mich St.......alot of points? yea but Mich St is absolutely done...no chance of playing in big 10 title game or getting to a good bowl. They have key injuries all over the place as well....PSU is off a loss and a bye and stylr points will matter...Frankin will have no problem running p score and dont be surprised if PSU wins 45-17

    Georgia -7.5 at LSU.......this is my least favorite pick of the 7......im very bearish on LSU...I had Fla last week and im taking Ga this week... Ga does nothing wrong...I think they will take the crowd out of the game and wear down the LSU D in the 2nd H and win 31-20

    Atl -3.5 TB.........GUYS, i love this game...I bet it at -3.....I know Atl is insanely banged up on D......I know TB is off a bye....But theres no way Atl thinks their season is over. They are 1-4 but they have NYG at home next week. If they win here, they will be 3-4 after next week and right back in it..... I dont really want to watch this game bc it will be very frustrating watching TB scoring on multiple long plays but tl should be able to outscore them and score at will...Atl 38-30

    Pitt +2.5 at Cincy........what would this line be if Bullock didnt hit a 50 yd FG late in 3rd Q to get cincy off life support and make it 17-3 miami?? If he misses that FG, miami prob wins 24-7 and this line is Pitt -2.5.....This line is crazy and i love Pitt....Pitt 34-24
    Excellent work my friend glad to see we are aligned on your two NFL games too, and congrats on the little one that is awesome news

  16. #16
    SportsHec8
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    love seeing that!

    I took Seattle -2.5, Pitt +2.5 and Atlanta -3.5 and again at -3 when it dropped

    Team totals are AZ u17 and Atl o30. Don't think Minny pulls another buffalo game on us.

    Only other bet today is u44 in the minny game.



    Quote Originally Posted by golfnutt67 View Post
    Excellent work my friend glad to see we are aligned on your two NFL games too, and congrats on the little one that is awesome news
    Last edited by SportsHec8; 10-14-18 at 10:58 AM.

  17. #17
    SportsHec8
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    I played under 5.5 sacks in atlanta/tampa. not sure why that line was listed as high as it was, i made it 2.7 so i'm worried I made some sort of error!

  18. #18
    coolwHip807
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
    love seeing that!

    I took Seattle -2.5, Pitt +2.5 and Atlanta -3.5 and again at -3 when it dropped

    Team totals are AZ u17 and Atl o30. Don't think Minny pulls another buffalo game on us.

    Only other bet today is u44 in the minny game.
    Not sure I understand the ATL sentiment. Grady Jarrett is the key defensive player the market isn't accounting for properly. ATL has virtually no pass rush without him, that coupled with all other key injuries on defense, TB can do whatever they want.

  19. #19
    coolwHip807
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    Also, can see HFA reduced with Hurricane evacuees moving from FL up to ATL area.

  20. #20
    SportsHec8
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    The atlanta love comes from them having one of the best offenses in the game and going against the worst D in the game.

    The three different iterations of the model i have projected anywhere between 34 and 37 points for Atl - between 9 and 10 YPA and between 6.7 and 7.3 YPP.

    The highest we saw tampa was at 8.2 YPA and about 24pts.

    I made this a 10pt+ game.

    Quote Originally Posted by coolwHip807 View Post
    Not sure I understand the ATL sentiment. Grady Jarrett is the key defensive player the market isn't accounting for properly. ATL has virtually no pass rush without him, that coupled with all other key injuries on defense, TB can do whatever they want.

  21. #21
    SportsHec8
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    Falcons second half:
    3 possessions 3 punts
    14 plays for 20 yards

  22. #22
    SportsHec8
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    What a morning!!!!

  23. #23
    spindoc932
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    one for the good guys with atl kicking a 57 yard fg !!!!!!!!!

    point blank goes 5-2 to improve to 26-15-1......u neva know!

  24. #24
    SportsHec8
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    Denver has allowed 93 carries for 735 yards in the last 3 games. 7.9 YPC

    That has to be a 3 game record. Has to be

  25. #25
    deltonmyers
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
    Denver has allowed 93 carries for 735 yards in the last 3 games. 7.9 YPC

    That has to be a 3 game record. Has to be
    Making Arizona a nice early candidate for a teaser leg next week?

  26. #26
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by deltonmyers View Post
    Making Arizona a nice early candidate for a teaser leg next week?
    I haven't pulled the trigger on that one yet, but it's certainly in the running.

    Speaking of Week 7 matchups, this week's NFL thread is now live here.

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