1. #1
    Matt Landes
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    NFL Week 2 - Old Friends in High Places: A Point Blank Community

    Sark didn't learn, the Browns didn't lose but the Saints did despite being the biggest favorite on the board, and even those who considered the Bills the worst team in the league entering the season may have overestimated them. With Week 1 and the return of games that count we have plenty of food for thought, with this being just the tip of the iceberg.

    As a scheduling note, I think I'll try to go ahead and get fresh weekly threads up for both the NFL on Sunday evenings when possible. Life's other obligations won't always allow for it, but more often than not perhaps it could help to get things started early. Open to any thoughts anyone may have on this front.

    Now let's make the most of "Overreaction Monday" and see what edges we can bring to light....

    2-MINUTE DRILL

    It's Overreaction Week in the NFL, and Week 2 often offers some of my favorite value bets of the year. While we do need to properly evaluate what we saw in Week 1, there seems to be a marketplace tendency to make too much of the results of hte NFL's first weekend back in action. That can help to create edges for the diligent and levelheaded. Time to see if we can fit those two adjectives with this week's portfolio, and if the players and coaches on the field will abide....

    PITTSBURGH -4.5 vs. KANSAS CITY


    Forum contributor DoggyJuice made a strong case for the Steelers at the beginning of this thread, so I'll try not to make a repetitive case. A Thursday surge to Pittsburgh has cleaned out most of the -4s that were available, and while a good shopper can still find one, I consider the consensus line of -4.5 good up to -5.5.

    On the Steelers side of things, there's nothing pretty on the surface about a 21-21 tie in Cleveland. But how do you manage not to lose in spite of a -5 turnover differential? How about winning the yards per play battle by more than two full yards. That kind of domination leads to a decisive win most of the time, and almost certainly would have in this case if not for fumble luck - there were 4 fumbles in the game, 3 of them by Pittsburgh, and the Browns recovered all 4. Simply put, the more predictive metrics paint the Steelers in a much better light than the unpredictability of turnovers that worked against them to the extreme in Week 1 - something that's more likely than not to regress to the mean.

    Looking at Kansas City, there's not much to dislike about the 38-28 score from their big AFC West win over the Chargers. But digging beneath the surface, we can detect a misleading final as brought to light in this thread last night by forum contributor SportsHec8. The Chargers won yards per play decisively, despite a glut of gaffes from wide receivers Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams, and a Chiefs defense that ranked 30th in Football Outsiders DVOA last year showed literally no progress by coming in at 30th in Week 1. Yes, Tyreek Hill is electric and yes, Patrick Mahomes looked great - but unless Pittsburgh replicates the Chargers' game-long series of miscues too long to list (dropped passes on offense, a refusal on defense to account for the opponent's biggest big play threat, and an inability to return or cover punts, for starters...), Kansas City should be in for much more of a battle in its second straight road game with the master of extra prep time in Andy Reid getting less prep time this week.

    From a mathematical standpoint, this is also a decent spot in which lay points, as only one other game on the board comes within 5 points of the consensus total of 53.5. More scoring mean less relative value in each point, classifying this spread as a "short" 4.5.

    TEASER: NEW ORLEANS -2.5 VS. CLEVELAND, CHARGERS -0.5 AT BUFFALO

    Speaking of more scoring reducing the relative value of each point, New Orleans gets the call as my favorite teaser team this week. In the only game that comes within 5 points of the aforementioned total in Pittsburgh, the Saints remain vastly superior to Cleveland despite a home loss to Tampa Bay juxtaposed against the Browns' Week 1 tie with the Steelers. The flip side to Pittsburgh managing not to lose despite a -5 TO differential is the Browns' inability to win with a +5 differential. It's a safe bet they won't go +5 again this week - on the road against a dynamic opponent, that should be enough for a Cleveland loss, and this teaser asks for little more than that. Note that an influx of money on New Orleans throughout the week has widely taken this game out of teaser territory for the 6-point model that crosses through 3 and 7 - while a good shopper might still be able to find it, most bettors who haven't played the Saints yet will need 6.5 points to cross down through 3. 6.5 points will come at a steeper cost (-120 if you have any teaser-friendly outs; a little more if not), but I still see enough value to proceed at a slightly reduced amount to account for the extra vig, up to -130.

    Despite putting the Chargers in their place while revisiting their Week 1 loss to the Chiefs above, I see them as the best available fit for the second leg of a teaser tied to New Orleans now that Jacksonville is down from teaser territory to pick 'em against New England.The Chargers made more than their share of mistakes last Sunday, and with the current roster and coaching staff there's no reason to expect that to change much. But unlike Kansas City, I don't think Buffalo is equipped to take advantage of its opponents' errors. While the Bills were a Week 1 disaster in Baltimore, this is not meant to be an overreaction. They simply lack the firepower to consistently compete with good NFL teams, and for now I think the Chargers still qualify as good even if they're getting in their own way of progressing toward great. Josh Allen hasn't shown much to indicate that he's a capable NFL starter. The offensive line is in shambles. More objectively, DVOA pegged their Week 1 offensive performance as the league's worst by a gaping margin. That makes their defense look relatively good by coming in at 28th on the DVOA charts. It's still entirely possible that Buffalo shows up with its best effort and the Chargers fall flat. But I'm willing to bet against a Bills win, especially when it rounds out a favorable angle to get in on the Saints.

    PICK OF THE WEEK: MIAMI +3 at JETS

    There's no denying Sam Darnold and the Jets impressed, earning a big upgrade for a dominant win on Monday night in front of the ESPN cameras. With that said, the Dolphins deserve a slight upgrade as well for their performance in a marathon win that relatively few people saw. Seeing Miami go from the favorite in this one as of Sunday evening to a full field goal underdog after the Jets tamed the Lions stands out as an overreaction...national TV, sports mediaverse headlines and banter and all, barring injury it's virtually unheard of for a team's performance in one game to warrant a 4-point line move overnight.

    There is a notion among Jets backers that Miami should be fatigued coming off the longest game since AFL/NFL merger in 1970. Thanks to multiple lightning delays resulting in a game of more than 7 hours, that thought has merit. But with the Jets on a short week after playing on the road on Monday night, fatigue doesn't appear to be a clear disadvantage for either team.

    Unless the Jets' defense knows what's coming again, I feel good about taking the Dolphins and a field goal as a sheer value play. As always, anything can happen (Exhibit A: the Jets in Week 1) and it's important to keep in mind the best bets still lose about 45% of the time, but I see enough value in this number to play it up to -120, which is commonly available at press time, while a good shopper can find -115. I think playing about 20% of the ATS wager amount on the money line as well (at +125 or better) would be an optimal approach to maximize value along the risk/reward spectrum, as a Dolphins win would be no surprise.

    "COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES" - BEER OF THE WEEK



    Beer: Water Balloon Fight Club
    Brewery: Monkish Brewing Co. (Torrance, CA)
    Style: Hazy Double IPA
    ABV: 8.4%

    If we're going to root for the Chargers to show some fight this weekend, we might as well pair it with a world-class IPA brewed just down the road from StubHub Center and thus within reach of the team's (few) local fans who have their fingers on the pulse of the L.A. beer scene. With a fresh batch of cans having dropped recently there's no better option to enjoy, and perhaps no more appropriately named beer, than Monkish Brewing's Water Balloon Fight Club while watching the battle in Buffalo on a sweltering September Sunday.

    Water Balloon Fight Club pours a hazy golden yellow with a milk-white head, which seems appropriate given the soft, creamy mouthfeel that helps 8.4% ABV go down in dangerously smooth fashion. Featuring a double dry hopped dose of the "holy trinity of hops" in Citra, Mosaic and Simcoe, Water Balloon Fight Club is bursting with citrus and tropical fruit notes (think grapefruit and pineapple) and balanced out by minimal bitterness but just enough hop bite on the finish to live up to the billing of a double IPA.

    Monkish IPAs can be notoriously difficult to come by due to beer drinkers' demand, but when secured, they rarely if ever fall short of the hype. In the case of Water Balloon Fight Club, no hype is too much.

    Rating: 4.75 out of 5
    Last edited by Matt Landes; 09-13-18 at 06:10 PM.
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  2. #2
    DoggyJuice
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    As a lifelong Bears fan, all I have to say after last night is what Collinsworth said in the 1st half after Rodgers went down: "whoa". Talk about a tale of two halves. I'm still taking time to decompress and it might take awhile. Nagy let his nerves get to him, but there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Bears moving forward.

    Regarding Week 2 openers, my first reaction to the Steeler/Chiefs line is that it is short at -5. One has to first acknowledge that the Chiefs will be a high variance team this year and I will be very leery about betting against them at any point this season because doing so may involve a ticket that becomes toilet paper by halftime. However, here are my main reasons for believing that there is value on the Steelers at anything less than -6:

    -Power rating. I simply do not think that the Steelers are only 1.5-2 points better than the Chiefs, even after how impressive the Chiefs looked yesterday. Andy Reid is notoriously fantastic ATS with time to prepare (look at last year's opener vs the Patriots at Gillette and pretty much off any bye week). Along those lines, I think we may be getting a power ratings overreaction here after how good KC looked yesterday.
    -Big Ben's home/road splits should not be ignored. Also, the Browns were +5 in turnovers yesterday and yet the Steelers still had a 21-7 lead halfway through the 4th.
    -The Kansas City travel factor (west coast to east coast)

    My main worry is the Bell situation and the potential for distractions, so I will be keeping a close eye on that all week (how could I not when mainstream media will be shoving it in our faces). I tend to think that Tomlin will have them focused coming off a tie that really feels like a loss, and we know how well the recent Steelers are capable of playing when they're at home and motivated.

  3. #3
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoggyJuice View Post
    -Big Ben's home/road splits should not be ignored. Also, the Browns were +5 in turnovers yesterday and yet the Steelers still had a 21-7 lead halfway through the 4th.
    I would already foresee the following in a Tuesday NFL recap from Dave:

    Item: Cleveland was +5 in TO differential and didnít win
    Sub-item: Pittsburgh was -5 in TO differential and didnít lose

    The Cleveland side of it, coupled with an overreaction to the Saintsí loss, has New Orleans as a leading teaser candidate at home to the Browns. Am eyeing the Vikings as the second leg, but need some positive news about Rodgers to move the number a tick to get up through 7 as my only book with the game listed is at Minnesota +1.

    On the Pittsburgh side of it, this could have overreactions in play for both the Steelers and the Chiefs.
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  4. #4
    Matt Landes
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    I can't help myself - just made small plays on Oakland +6.5 for the full game and +3.5 -105 for the first half.

    Decided to split the ticket because A) from what I can tell, McVay prefers to defer and we're not sure about Gruden electing to defer or receive, so there's the chance of an extra Raiders possession in the first half; B) the Rams starters' lack of preseason playing time seems more likely to hurt them early than late, if at all; and C) regardless of how the game unfolds, the first few series might be the most spirited ones of the season for the Raiders between Gruden's return and still having hope given the clean slate of Week 1.

  5. #5
    puffkit
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    in hindsight .....bowles is a really good coach and the jets play hard no matter their talent level (we saw that last year and they appear better this year).....they are hustling all over the place tonight.....read that patricia was in over his head and preseason seemed to play out that way for detroit and now detroit sure looks uninspired.

    jets look to be good dogs again this year.......that +7 was a gift.

  6. #6
    benjy21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    I would already foresee the following in a Tuesday NFL recap from Dave:

    Item: Cleveland was +5 in TO differential and didn’t win
    Sub-item: Pittsburgh was -5 in TO differential and didn’t lose

    The Cleveland side of it, coupled with an overreaction to the Saints’ loss, has New Orleans as a leading teaser candidate at home to the Browns. Am eyeing the Vikings as the second leg, but need some positive news about Rodgers to move the number a tick to get up through 7 as my only book with the game listed is at Minnesota +1.

    On the Pittsburgh side of it, this could have overreactions in play for both the Steelers and the Chiefs.
    I was just thinking about how Dave would be writing about the fact that Matt Patricia is over matched in the head coaching position, based on how poorly his defenses performed in New England. The Football Outsiders defensive rankings for the Patricia defensive coordinator led NE Patriots were as follows: 15, 20, 12, 12, 16 & 31. By the looks of their performance tonight, Detroit may be a play against this year, ala the NY Giants last year led by Ben "Denny's menu" McAdoo.

  7. #7
    puffkit
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    [QUOTE=benjy21;28040886]I was just thinking about how Dave would be writing about the fact that Matt Patricia is over matched in the head coaching position, based on how poorly his defenses performed in New England. The Football Outsiders defensive rankings for the Patricia defensive coordinator led NE Patriots were as follows: 15, 20, 12, 12, 16 & 31. By the looks of their performance tonight, Detroit may be a play against this year, ala the NY Giants last year led by Ben "Denny's menu" McAdoo.[/QUOT

    definitely a play against...and OVERS........if they play this bad at home, on the road outside should be even worse (the dome has always been their game)

  8. #8
    puffkit
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    detroit at SF next week.........THAT looks like a big coaching mismatch......will that SF-3 hold? jimmy G bounce back......

    also based on the 47.5 total i'll be looking at sf o25.....

  9. #9
    golfnutt67
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy21 View Post
    I was just thinking about how Dave would be writing about the fact that Matt Patricia is over matched in the head coaching position, based on how poorly his defenses performed in New England. The Football Outsiders defensive rankings for the Patricia defensive coordinator led NE Patriots were as follows: 15, 20, 12, 12, 16 & 31. By the looks of their performance tonight, Detroit may be a play against this year, ala the NY Giants last year led by Ben "Denny's menu" McAdoo.
    Totally agree Benjy his lessons were retained by us understudies I keep hearing his voice when reading or hearing things about particular aspects of the games.....he truly had a large impact on a bunch of us


    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    detroit at SF next week.........THAT looks like a big coaching mismatch......will that SF-3 hold? jimmy G bounce back......

    also based on the 47.5 total i'll be looking at sf o25.....
    I cant see it lasting curious what gets posted next

  10. #10
    golfnutt67
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    For those whom may be interested. I am charting accepted penalties, and their crews as part of my regular weekly data collecting. With all the talk about the new rules how totals may be affected etc.......

    Sorry about the poor formatting I cant figure out how to fix that



    Week 1 results
    Penalty's
    Officiating Crew
    Atlanta 15 John Hussey
    Philly 11
    Cleveland 11 Shawn Smith
    Pittsburg 12
    SF 3 Clay Martin
    Minnesota 7
    Cincinnati 8 Pete Morelli
    Indy 7
    Buffalo 10 Shawn Hochuli
    Baltimore 9
    Jax 11 Craig Wrolstad
    NYG 6
    Tampa 7 John Parry
    NO 8
    Houston 6 Tony Corrente
    New Eng 6
    Tennessee 5 Jerome Boger
    Miami 7
    KC 6 Clete Blakeman
    LAC 7
    Seattle 7 Brad Allen
    Denver 7
    Dallas 10 Walt Anderson
    Carolina 9
    Washington 9 Walt Coleman
    AZ 9
    Chicago 5 Carl Cheffers
    Green Bay 8
    NYJ 7 Bill Vinovich
    Detroit 3
    LAR 8 Ron Torbert
    Oakland 11
    Last edited by golfnutt67; 09-11-18 at 01:07 PM.
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  11. #11
    Matt Landes
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    Miami up to +3 at the Jets, with some +3.5 still out there. Are we in the midst of an Overreaction Tuesday? Unless the Jets know Tannehill's signals also, this strikes me as too big of a move in light of last night's performance. Dolphins +3.5 in pocket.

  12. #12
    golfnutt67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Miami up to +3 at the Jets, with some +3.5 still out there. Are we in the midst of an Overreaction Tuesday? Unless the Jets know Tannehill's signals also, this strikes me as too big of a move in light of last night's performance. Dolphins +3.5 in pocket.
    I sure does Matt...... I hope the current overrating of these two NY teams continues. I can't help but wonder if there are any effects from NJ and Delaware or not, but as long as the media blows the NY horn we may get some great opportunities.

  13. #13
    Champthinks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Sark didn't learn, the Browns didn't lose but the Saints did despite being the biggest favorite on the board, and even those who considered the Bills the worst team in the league entering the season may have overestimated them. With Week 1 and the return of games that count we have plenty of food for thought, with this being just the tip of the iceberg.

    As a scheduling note, I think I'll try to go ahead and get fresh weekly threads up for both the NFL on Sunday evenings when possible. Life's other obligations won't always allow for it, but more often than not perhaps it could help to get things started early. Open to any thoughts anyone may have on this front.

    Now let's make the most of "Overreaction Monday" and see what edges we can bring to light....
    Good idea Matt ..

  14. #14
    Matt Landes
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    Really wanted to tease the Saints to the Vikings, but the Saints are quickly falling out of teaser territory and my only book with a New Orleans line that fits the model hasn't yet posted Minnesota-Green Bay. Am hopeful for a crack at that Saints/Vikings teaser later in the week, but to ensure a teaser investment on the Saints in the meantime, I've played a couple smaller two-teamers tying them to the Jaguars and the Chargers (with the Jaguars being a bigger play than the Chargers).

  15. #15
    puffkit
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    Check out jax weather for sunday 4pm.....20mph winds w gusts to 39mph....u want bortles throwing in the wind?.....can grab u45 now and back out if things dramatically change....but unlikely at this point

  16. #16
    golfnutt67
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    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    Check out jax weather for sunday 4pm.....20mph winds w gusts to 39mph....u want bortles throwing in the wind?.....can grab u45 now and back out if things dramatically change....but unlikely at this point
    love it thanks for the heads up that one had not crossed my radar yet this week at 45 it could qualify and an under without the weather so this looks tasty

  17. #17
    puffkit
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    Also josh allen now starting.....i grabbed some +7 before it disappears.....buff not quite as bad as blowout....peterman horrible.....unreliable chargers west to east early game and likely no bosa(getting 2nd opinion on foot)

  18. #18
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    Check out jax weather for sunday 4pm.....20mph winds w gusts to 39mph....u want bortles throwing in the wind?.....can grab u45 now and back out if things dramatically change....but unlikely at this point
    Thanks for the tip on the total. I never ďwantĒ Bortles, but if the total crashes then I like the teaser even more since the relative value of each point increases. With the consensus line down to -1, if anybody can still get a 6-point teaser taking the Jaguars up through 7 it might not last long.

  19. #19
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    Also josh allen now starting.....i grabbed some +7 before it disappears.....buff not quite as bad as blowout....peterman horrible.....unreliable chargers west to east early game and likely no bosa(getting 2nd opinion on foot)
    I don't anticipate the +7s disappearing, but that's largely because of the reaction I'm sensing from others coming out of Week 1. It wouldn't be shocking to see Buffalo show up and put forth its best effort, whatever that is, and as a Chargers fan it's never shocking when they fail to show up for what looks like an easy win on paper.

    Coupled with a Chargers/Saints teaser that was taken mainly to diversify the Saints investment, have taken a piece of Bills +7.5 to make 3, 4, 6 and 7 win numbers for both tickets shall the Chargers prevail in a close one.

  20. #20
    SportsHec8
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    Hey guys, here are my power ratings for the week, a day late:

    As I mentioned last week, there were 7 games where my line was off by 3 or more than Vegas. I was right in 5 of those 7. This week there's only two, Dallas should be -6 not -3 at home to the crappy giants and TB PK against Nick Foles


    Rank Team Week 2
    1 New England 6
    2 LA Rams 6
    3 Minnesota 5.5
    4 Atlanta 5
    5 Baltimore 4
    6 LA Chargers 3.5
    7 Carolina 3
    8 Jacksonville 3
    9 New Orleans 2
    10 Kansas City 1.5
    11 Pittsburgh 1.5
    12 Green Bay 0.5
    13 Philadelphia 0.5
    14 Chicago 0
    15 Dallas -0.5
    16 San Francisco -1
    17 Denver -1.5
    18 Washington -1.5
    19 Tennessee -2
    20 Cincinnati -2
    21 Indianapolis -2
    22 Seattle -2
    23 Tampa Bay -2
    24 Houston -2.5
    25 Miami -2.5
    26 Oakland -3
    27 NY Jets -3.5
    28 Cleveland -4
    29 Detroit -4
    30 NY Giants -4
    31 Arizona -5
    32 Buffalo -8.5
    Dal -6 not -3
    Last edited by SportsHec8; 09-13-18 at 02:05 AM.

  21. #21
    SportsHec8
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    One new thing I'll be adding is two segments:
    1) box score blowout vs scoreboard - i'll review a game or two where the score may have been close but the box score was a blowout

    2) wrong team won - easy enough to understand.

    There are 3 games this week where these apply.

    Box score blowout was Denver over Seattle. Denver destroyed Seattle and the 27-24 does not reflect that:

    Box Score Blowout
    Seattle 24 - Denver 27
    Sea 4 YPC, 7.3 YPA, 5.6 YPP, 2 INT, 1 Fumble, 1 Missed FG
    55 plays (39 passes, 6 of which were sacks, GROSS)

    Should've scored 18
    Den 4.6 YPC, 8.3 YPA, 6.53 YPP, 3 INT
    72 plays (40 passes, 1 sack)
    Should've scored 37
    Seattle got their ass kicked. Russell may die. Is Case Keenum really this good? He played like the #1 DVOA QB again.

  22. #22
    SportsHec8
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    Statistically only 2 wrong teams won, Philly and KC:
    Atlanta 12 - Philly 18
    Atl 4.1 YPC, 5.23 YPA, 4.60 YPP, 1 INT

    65 plays (47 passes, gross)
    should've scored 18


    Phi 4.2 YPC, 3.4 YPA, 3.6 YPP, 1 INT, 1 Fumble Lost
    64 plays (37 passes)

    Worst YPP by winning team in years
    Should've scored only 10



    KC 38 - LAC 28

    KC 3.9 YPC, 9.5 YPA, 6.6 YPP, 0 Errors
    55 plays (27 rushes)
    Should've scored 32

    LAC 5.6 YPC, 8.2 YPA, 7.3 YPP, TRIFECTA OF FAILURE (1 int, 1 fumble 1 missed FG)
    74 plays (52 passes)
    Should've scored 30

    I PUT THIS HERE BECAUSE OF ALL THE DROPPED TD'S. RIVERS COULD'VE BEEN OVER 10 YPA, WE GET LESS THAN 10 of those A SEASON!
    Last edited by SportsHec8; 09-13-18 at 12:33 AM.

  23. #23
    SportsHec8
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    Just rewatched the Indy/cinci game.
    It didnít appear Cinci could stop the Indy run in the first half unless they cheated. I donít think their run D is any better than last year.Luckís arm looked AMAZING on most throws and they went down the field quite a bit.
    His worst throws were out to the flat. He had one particularly bad on on 3rd and 14 when he skipped it to the wide out and forced the dumb 56 yard FG attempt.I didnít love the coltsí play calling, especially in the two minute drills. Way too many screens and underneath stuff.
    Luckís TD pass to Ebron and 25 yard dime to TY that got called back for OPI were solid. The TY pass in particular, only 3 guys make in the leagueThe entire game came down to Dalton running for first down on a 3rd and 6 when down 23-10.

  24. #24
    SportsHec8
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    Model plays:

    Bal 21 - CIN 16 (Bal)

    Ind 21 - WAS 28 (Ind)
    Car 18 - ATL 22 (Atl)
    Min 26 - GB 17 (Min)
    Lac 28 - Buf 20 (LAC)
    Hou 27 - Ten 24 (Hou)
    Kc 21 - Pit 33 (Pit)
    Mia 22 - NYJ 24 (NYJ)
    Phi 24 - TB 19 (TB)
    Cle 18 - NO 33 (NO)
    Az 15 - LAR 28 (LAR)
    Det 24 - SF 30 (SF)
    Nep 21 - JAX 26 (Jax)
    Nyg 17 - DAL 23 (Dal)
    Sea 18 - Chi 20 (Chi)

    Sides
    Bal -1 (-5)
    Min +1.5 (-10)
    Jax +2 (-5)
    Dal -3 (-6)

    Totals
    Bal/Cin u44 (37)
    Det/SF o47.5 (54)
    Sea/CHI u43 (37)
    Last edited by SportsHec8; 09-13-18 at 12:40 AM.

  25. #25
    SportsHec8
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    Really like your angle with Pitt. KC's defense was putrid last year and it sure didn't seem like they improved. LAC carved them up. I'm excited for this game.

    Quote Originally Posted by DoggyJuice View Post
    As a lifelong Bears fan, all I have to say after last night is what Collinsworth said in the 1st half after Rodgers went down: "whoa". Talk about a tale of two halves. I'm still taking time to decompress and it might take awhile. Nagy let his nerves get to him, but there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Bears moving forward.

    Regarding Week 2 openers, my first reaction to the Steeler/Chiefs line is that it is short at -5. One has to first acknowledge that the Chiefs will be a high variance team this year and I will be very leery about betting against them at any point this season because doing so may involve a ticket that becomes toilet paper by halftime. However, here are my main reasons for believing that there is value on the Steelers at anything less than -6:

    -Power rating. I simply do not think that the Steelers are only 1.5-2 points better than the Chiefs, even after how impressive the Chiefs looked yesterday. Andy Reid is notoriously fantastic ATS with time to prepare (look at last year's opener vs the Patriots at Gillette and pretty much off any bye week). Along those lines, I think we may be getting a power ratings overreaction here after how good KC looked yesterday.
    -Big Ben's home/road splits should not be ignored. Also, the Browns were +5 in turnovers yesterday and yet the Steelers still had a 21-7 lead halfway through the 4th.
    -The Kansas City travel factor (west coast to east coast)

    My main worry is the Bell situation and the potential for distractions, so I will be keeping a close eye on that all week (how could I not when mainstream media will be shoving it in our faces). I tend to think that Tomlin will have them focused coming off a tie that really feels like a loss, and we know how well the recent Steelers are capable of playing when they're at home and motivated.

  26. #26
    SportsHec8
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    how gross was football in week 1? This chart really captures it
    Quote Originally Posted by golfnutt67 View Post
    For those whom may be interested. I am charting accepted penalties, and their crews as part of my regular weekly data collecting. With all the talk about the new rules how totals may be affected etc.......

    Sorry about the poor formatting I cant figure out how to fix that



    Week 1 results
    Penalty's
    Officiating Crew
    Atlanta 15 John Hussey
    Philly 11
    Cleveland 11 Shawn Smith
    Pittsburg 12
    SF 3 Clay Martin
    Minnesota 7
    Cincinnati 8 Pete Morelli
    Indy 7
    Buffalo 10 Shawn Hochuli
    Baltimore 9
    Jax 11 Craig Wrolstad
    NYG 6
    Tampa 7 John Parry
    NO 8
    Houston 6 Tony Corrente
    New Eng 6
    Tennessee 5 Jerome Boger
    Miami 7
    KC 6 Clete Blakeman
    LAC 7
    Seattle 7 Brad Allen
    Denver 7
    Dallas 10 Walt Anderson
    Carolina 9
    Washington 9 Walt Coleman
    AZ 9
    Chicago 5 Carl Cheffers
    Green Bay 8
    NYJ 7 Bill Vinovich
    Detroit 3
    LAR 8 Ron Torbert
    Oakland 11

  27. #27
    SportsHec8
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    I bought back some of my NYJ -1 play. Really worked out well cause i had misread my numbers


    Quote Originally Posted by golfnutt67 View Post
    I sure does Matt...... I hope the current overrating of these two NY teams continues. I can't help but wonder if there are any effects from NJ and Delaware or not, but as long as the media blows the NY horn we may get some great opportunities.

  28. #28
    SportsHec8
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    fired on the Under 22.5 Bengals for tomorrow along with Balt -1 and Under 44.

    How on earth are the bengals going to score 23 against that D? amazing TT

  29. #29
    SportsHec8
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    Week 1 Stats were interesting

    26.5 Carries for 113 yards, 4.3 YPC (2017 was 26.6 for 109)
    36 Passes, 2.5 Sacks for 237.4 yards, 6.6 YPA (2017 was 34 passes, 2.4 sacks for 227 yards, 6.6 YPA)
    4.8 punts per team vs 4.7 last year

    63 plays last year vs 65 this year!

  30. #30
    Matt Landes
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    Hector, This string of posts is outstanding. You are a major part of the fabric of the PB community and seeing all these insights makes it seem like all is right in the world...despite the reminder of how pitiful the Chargersí receivers were last Sunday.

  31. #31
    golfnutt67
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
    Hey guys, here are my power ratings for the week, a day late:

    As I mentioned last week, there were 7 games where my line was off by 3 or more than Vegas. I was right in 5 of those 7. This week there's only two, Dallas should be -6 not -3 at home to the crappy giants and TB PK against Nick Foles


    Rank Team Week 2
    1 New England 6
    2 LA Rams 6
    3 Minnesota 5.5
    4 Atlanta 5
    5 Baltimore 4
    6 LA Chargers 3.5
    7 Carolina 3
    8 Jacksonville 3
    9 New Orleans 2
    10 Kansas City 1.5
    11 Pittsburgh 1.5
    12 Green Bay 0.5
    13 Philadelphia 0.5
    14 Chicago 0
    15 Dallas -0.5
    16 San Francisco -1
    17 Denver -1.5
    18 Washington -1.5
    19 Tennessee -2
    20 Cincinnati -2
    21 Indianapolis -2
    22 Seattle -2
    23 Tampa Bay -2
    24 Houston -2.5
    25 Miami -2.5
    26 Oakland -3
    27 NY Jets -3.5
    28 Cleveland -4
    29 Detroit -4
    30 NY Giants -4
    31 Arizona -5
    32 Buffalo -8.5
    Dal -6 not -3
    So glad to have you posting these again I like to use your PR as one of my data points when dissecting the games I like, while a couple of my pics last week went against what your model produced, these have been extremely helpful and I really appreciate your insights..........love the box score blow out and the wrong team one segment too. My only blemish in my SC pics was Denver (push) and yea they definitely out played Seattle but Case was feelinging generous after getting that $$$ I guess

  32. #32
    chadchad88
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    Matt, happy I found you here. Big fan of the podcast. Bummed it’s not on anymore but also understand. Question, is there a podcast that you are on now? If not, are you posting content here on SBR? When do you post and what kind of content are you putting out?

  33. #33
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by chadchad88 View Post
    Matt, happy I found you here. Big fan of the podcast. Bummed it’s not on anymore but also understand. Question, is there a podcast that you are on now? If not, are you posting content here on SBR? When do you post and what kind of content are you putting out?
    Thanks for your note - I'd love to podcast again under the right circumstances in the future, but for now am focusing on the Point Blank community with weekly SBR threads devoted to the NFL and college football. You've found the Week 2 NFL thread, and if it's of interest this week's college thread is here.

    If you ever want to go back and reference a previous thread, or simply want to view all threads in one place rather than hunt for links in comments, SBR has a nice Point Blank landing page that may be useful as a one-stop shop.

  34. #34
    Matt Landes
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    2-MINUTE DRILL

    It's Overreaction Week in the NFL, and Week 2 often offers some of my favorite value bets of the year. While we do need to properly evaluate what we saw in Week 1, there seems to be a marketplace tendency to make too much of the results of hte NFL's first weekend back in action. That can help to create edges for the diligent and levelheaded. Time to see if we can fit those two adjectives with this week's portfolio, and if the players and coaches on the field will abide....

    PITTSBURGH -4.5 vs. KANSAS CITY


    Forum contributor DoggyJuice made a strong case for the Steelers at the beginning of this thread, so I'll try not to make a repetitive case. A Thursday surge to Pittsburgh has cleaned out most of the -4s that were available, and while a good shopper can still find one, I consider the consensus line of -4.5 good up to -5.5.

    On the Steelers side of things, there's nothing pretty on the surface about a 21-21 tie in Cleveland. But how do you manage not to lose in spite of a -5 turnover differential? How about winning the yards per play battle by more than two full yards. That kind of domination leads to a decisive win most of the time, and almost certainly would have in this case if not for fumble luck - there were 4 fumbles in the game, 3 of them by Pittsburgh, and the Browns recovered all 4. Simply put, the more predictive metrics paint the Steelers in a much better light than the unpredictability of turnovers that worked against them to the extreme in Week 1 - something that's more likely than not to regress to the mean.

    Looking at Kansas City, there's not much to dislike about the 38-28 score from their big AFC West win over the Chargers. But digging beneath the surface, we can detect a misleading final as brought to light in this thread last night by forum contributor SportsHec8. The Chargers won yards per play decisively, despite a glut of gaffes from wide receivers Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams, and a Chiefs defense that ranked 30th in Football Outsiders DVOA last year showed literally no progress by coming in at 30th in Week 1. Yes, Tyreek Hill is electric and yes, Patrick Mahomes looked great - but unless Pittsburgh replicates the Chargers' game-long series of miscues too long to list (dropped passes on offense, a refusal on defense to account for the opponent's biggest big play threat, and an inability to return or cover punts, for starters...), Kansas City should be in for much more of a battle in its second straight road game with the master of extra prep time in Andy Reid getting less prep time this week.

    From a mathematical standpoint, this is also a decent spot in which lay points, as only one other game on the board comes within 5 points of the consensus total of 53.5. More scoring mean less relative value in each point, classifying this spread as a "short" 4.5.

    TEASER: NEW ORLEANS -2.5 VS. CLEVELAND, CHARGERS -0.5 AT BUFFALO

    Speaking of more scoring reducing the relative value of each point, New Orleans gets the call as my favorite teaser team this week. In the only game that comes within 5 points of the aforementioned total in Pittsburgh, the Saints remain vastly superior to Cleveland despite a home loss to Tampa Bay juxtaposed against the Browns' Week 1 tie with the Steelers. The flip side to Pittsburgh managing not to lose despite a -5 TO differential is the Browns' inability to win with a +5 differential. It's a safe bet they won't go +5 again this week - on the road against a dynamic opponent, that should be enough for a Cleveland loss, and this teaser asks for little more than that. Note that an influx of money on New Orleans throughout the week has widely taken this game out of teaser territory for the 6-point model that crosses through 3 and 7 - while a good shopper might still be able to find it, most bettors who haven't played the Saints yet will need 6.5 points to cross down through 3. 6.5 points will come at a steeper cost (-120 if you have any teaser-friendly outs; a little more if not), but I still see enough value to proceed at a slightly reduced amount to account for the extra vig, up to -130.

    Despite putting the Chargers in their place while revisiting their Week 1 loss to the Chiefs above, I see them as the best available fit for the second leg of a teaser tied to New Orleans now that Jacksonville is down from teaser territory to pick 'em against New England.The Chargers made more than their share of mistakes last Sunday, and with the current roster and coaching staff there's no reason to expect that to change much. But unlike Kansas City, I don't think Buffalo is equipped to take advantage of its opponents' errors. While the Bills were a Week 1 disaster in Baltimore, this is not meant to be an overreaction. They simply lack the firepower to consistently compete with good NFL teams, and for now I think the Chargers still qualify as good even if they're getting in their own way of progressing toward great. Josh Allen hasn't shown much to indicate that he's a capable NFL starter. The offensive line is in shambles. More objectively, DVOA pegged their Week 1 offensive performance as the league's worst by a gaping margin. That makes their defense look relatively good by coming in at 28th on the DVOA charts. It's still entirely possible that Buffalo shows up with its best effort and the Chargers fall flat. But I'm willing to bet against a Bills win, especially when it rounds out a favorable angle to get in on the Saints.

    PICK OF THE WEEK: MIAMI +3 at JETS

    There's no denying Sam Darnold and the Jets impressed, earning a big upgrade for a dominant win on Monday night in front of the ESPN cameras. With that said, the Dolphins deserve a slight upgrade as well for their performance in a marathon win that relatively few people saw. Seeing Miami go from the favorite in this one as of Sunday evening to a full field goal underdog after the Jets tamed the Lions stands out as an overreaction...national TV, sports mediaverse headlines and banter and all, barring injury it's virtually unheard of for a team's performance in one game to warrant a 4-point line move overnight.

    There is a notion among Jets backers that Miami should be fatigued coming off the longest game since AFL/NFL merger in 1970. Thanks to multiple lightning delays resulting in a game of more than 7 hours, that thought has merit. But with the Jets on a short week after playing on the road on Monday night, fatigue doesn't appear to be a clear disadvantage for either team.

    Unless the Jets' defense knows what's coming again, I feel good about taking the Dolphins and a field goal as a sheer value play. As always, anything can happen (Exhibit A: the Jets in Week 1) and it's important to keep in mind the best bets still lose about 45% of the time, but I see enough value in this number to play it up to -120, which is commonly available at press time, while a good shopper can find -115. I think playing about 20% of the ATS wager amount on the money line as well (at +125 or better) would be an optimal approach to maximize value along the risk/reward spectrum, as a Dolphins win would be no surprise.

    "COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES" - BEER OF THE WEEK



    Beer: Water Balloon Fight Club
    Brewery: Monkish Brewing Co. (Torrance, CA)
    Style: Hazy Double IPA
    ABV: 8.4%

    If we're going to root for the Chargers to show some fight this weekend, we might as well pair it with a world-class IPA brewed just down the road from StubHub Center and thus within reach of the team's (few) local fans who have their fingers on the pulse of the L.A. beer scene. With a fresh batch of cans having dropped recently there's no better option to enjoy, and perhaps no more appropriately named beer, than Monkish Brewing's Water Balloon Fight Club while watching the battle in Buffalo on a sweltering September Sunday.

    Water Balloon Fight Club pours a hazy golden yellow with a milk-white head, which seems appropriate given the soft, creamy mouthfeel that helps 8.4% ABV go down in dangerously smooth fashion. Featuring a double dry hopped dose of the "holy trinity of hops" in Citra, Mosaic and Simcoe, Water Balloon Fight Club is bursting with citrus and tropical fruit notes (think grapefruit and pineapple) and balanced out by minimal bitterness but just enough hop bite on the finish to live up to the billing of a double IPA.

    Monkish IPAs can be notoriously difficult to come by due to beer drinkers' demand, but when secured, they rarely if ever fall short of the hype. In the case of Water Balloon Fight Club, no hype is too much.

    Rating: 4.75 out of 5

  35. #35
    puffkit
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    ouch

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