NCAA Finals – You Can Guard Some of the Shooters Some of the Time…A first look at the Chase humidor impact (and it isn’t just contact that should be tracked)…
Point Blank – April 2, 2018
An NCAA tournament that has delivered in terms of being a much more wide open affair than most brackets reaches the final stage tonight, and the prospects of something special are there because both teams are mentally ready for this stage – this is the second championship game in three seasons for the Brunson/Bridges/Booth trio, while Michigan is 15-1 in post-season tourney games since that runway incident last March, the only loss by a single point.
I’ll get to that tipoff in a moment, with the usual The Game Inside the Game format, but as sport cycles change, the last call for those who specialize in college hoops while the MLB marathon is only a few strides from the gate, I will plug in the jukebox to add some elegance to the day. There is a life/handicapping point to be attached.
I got the opportunity to see John Mayall perform this weekend, a bit of a metaphysical longshot that he would play a one-off in Las Vegas, and was amazed at the physical energy that he brought to the stage at the age of 84. It is the reminder that folks across certain of life’s grand arenas have the opportunity to keep growing and creating as time passes, taking advantage of the knowledge and experience gained through days gone by to add more colors to the palette. It is also a lesson to take to for those that do what we do, because we are afforded that opportunity to keep getting better, rather than reaching a peak, only to go downhill.
Mayall recorded “Mists of Time” in 2002, when he was 69 years old. It was the sort of thing one does at that age, looking back through the years to sum it up in a song that hinted at being a career epitaph. Yet Mayall has gone on to record a half-dozen studio albums since then, touring continually. We are offered the opportunity to do the same, within the parameters of our endeavor. Here is a live version from 2002, audio only, plenty to not only get the day started, but to remind us to take advantage of the prospect that our best may not be confined to the rear-view mirror just yet -
That is a great one to file away for plenty of listens in the future. Now time to head to San Antonio…
Item: You can guard some of the shooters some of the time, but…
The fact that Villanova is special offensively is not news to regular readers, as noted often the Wildcats are #2 over the last decade in terms of productivity with the ball, behind only 2015 Wisconsin. It is that nearly flawless combination of a half-dozen guys in the prime rotation that can all shoot the ball, and all handle it. They are also unselfish enough to be aiming for a team result instead of individual numbers, which puts extreme pressure on opposing defenses – the Wildcats will often pass up a good shot to get a better one.
Now that pressure falls on to the Michigan defense, which makes tonight a must-see event because in terms of talent and tactics the Wolverines have a legitimate chance to compete. Let’s set the stage by going back to the Elite 8 edition, when a headline was posed for Texas Tech/Villanova of “Is this the toughest defense challenge for Villanova”.
I believed that the Red Raiders matched up defensively better than any team in the nation, which now raises some intrigue tonight because of where the national defensive ratings sit with one game to go:
Total D Michigan #3 Tx Tech #4
If Michigan is even better than Tech, then…
But now the caution. While the Wolverines have nudged ahead of the Red Raiders in the overall charting, let’s establish important perspective by taking a look across some of the key particulars:
Eff FG% 3-Pt% TO% BLK% Michigan #33 #55 #99 #232 Tx Tech #12 #33 #17 #32
How does Michigan fall below Tech across the board in those areas and still rate a little better overall? Because the Wolverines don’t give much away via fouls, while the aggression that helped the Red Raiders to compile such good numbers also worked against them in that same category:
FTA/FGA Michigan #85 Tx Tech #271
But while this is a major plus for John Beilein’s team in most matchups, does it provide an advantage tonight? Not really, because Villanova doesn’t build the attack around getting to the line:
FTA/FGA Vil "O" #289
Another area in which Michigan has been successful defensively is in using those string fundamentals to force opponents deep into the clock, where many of the grew frustrated and ended up taking bad shots. Yet that is also not much advantage this evening, as we go to average possession length:
Michigan D 18.0 Villanova O 17.9
The Wildcat offense won’t be bothered if it becomes a grinder. One of their prime strengths is player and ball movement throughout the clock, and Jay Wright has a slew of finishers who can get their own shot on a late one-on-one move when that is what is called for.
It all leads me to a riff on an old saying, and for tonight I believe it is “You can guard some of the shooters some of the time, but you can’t guard all of the shooters all of the time…” Even a defense that brings the talent and tactics that Michigan can deliver, will find itself subject to having to hope that the Villanova shooters miss enough times to allow the Wolverines to stay in the hunt.
I don’t expect to be in play this evening, the final grade on my stuff being a “Lay -4/Take +9”, and “Over 142/Under 149”, but it won’t prevent me from enjoying two of the best coaches in the game play a little chess, and should Jalen Brunson and the Wildcats be cutting down the nets one of the pleasant memories in my own “Mists of Time” montage will have been watching the special way that they played the game this season.
Now time for some MLB…
Item: It isn’t just about monitoring contact at Chase Field
It didn’t take the betting markets long to anticipate an impact by the new humidor being use at Chase Field, the first Total I saw for Rockies/Diamondbacks on opening day last Thursday being a 9.5, and the closer at 8 (most good shops opened 9). Yet over the three games of that series there wasn’t an appreciable altering of flow in terms of contact, with eight home runs being hit, and that should settle the movement down a bit.
Where I am intrigued beyond the impact of contact is what the humidor does for the confidence of the Arizona pitchers, and that is how the story of the first series might best be told. There are the usual caveats of it being early in the season, and also of small sample size, but how about this for the D’Back starting trio of Corbin/Ray/Greinke:
IP 16.1 K 25 BB 4
That aggression in attacking the strike zone may be telling us about the psyche of the pitchers, and bears watching closely.
In the Sights, Monday MLB…
I believe the Brewers are better than the Cardinals, and that Zach Davies is better than Mike Mikolas. I like a team that is settled into their home opener after a 3-0 road trip, including having Sunday off, while for St. Louis it is the rare setting of having to travel into a day game. Yet the price is short, with as low as -113 to be found, so it will be #902 Milwaukee (2:10 Eastern)going into pocket, with -115 or lower the value target. It seems that once again the markets are not enamored by a quality pitcher that doesn’t show much sex appeal.
At a time in which strikeouts generate so much excitement Davies is below league average, a career 6.6 K/9 that induces yawns. But he has command of the strike zone and generates ground balls (a 50.2 percent clip in 2017), which has built out a solid 31-18/3.91 across his first 67 MLB starts, all of them coming before his 25thbirthday. A lesser Milwaukee lineup than the one behind him today went 20-13 when he started in 2013, and for perspective there were only five pitchers across MLB that helped generate more than 20 wins across their starts LY. Davies doesn’t bring an upside for greatness, but can be a steady performer that will be available at wholesale given the subtleties of his game.
Let’s let him take us on a tour of his own mindset, to lend substance to the belief in his savvy – “I want to keep it (off speed pitches) in a certain range below my fastball. My goal for my changeup is right around 8-9 mph, sometimes 10. My curveball is usually somewhere around 12-15 off my fastball. As long as I can stay within those ranges, I’m good.
“For me, certain curveballs that are a little bit sharper, at a little higher velo, play a lot better than slower, loppier curveballs. There’s a time and place for each, but the sharper curveball is what I’m usually looking for. Same thing goes with my changeup.”
Meanwhile Mikolas will generate some buzz because of the appearance that he turned his career around over a few seasons in Japan, but even with his best stuff he doesn’t profile as much more than a journeyman, and there wasn’t any particular magic to see in spring training. I believe we have a game in which the Brewers would be -135 in the same pitching matchup a little later in the season, and will take advantage.
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