1. #1
    Point Blank
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    PB (3/24): NCAA Elite Eight - The Game Inside the Game


    Elite Eight – The Game Inside the Game…Will Loyola have to score with talent instead of tactics; can the FSU stay patient at a slow tempo; is this the toughest matchup for the Villanova “O”; and will Duke be Lords of the Boards…


    Point Blank – March 24, 2018

    The NCAA tournament is now down to eight teams, and while the group this season doesn’t necessarily spell E-L-I-T-E as seamlessly in the past, there is plenty to explore for the serious handicapper. I will keep the focus here as I have from the beginning of the tourney, using “The Game Inside the Game” to look at one key aspect of each matchup, one of the prime game-flow avenues that will be a foundation for how the scoreboard gets generated.

    With several games to sort through the jukebox will be plugged in for some background, and there is a mellowness called for, the long Saturday wait until the first tipoff this evening. I will also go back to a wonderful well, having already used Jerry Garcia covering Jimmy Cliff earlier through the tournament cycle, and returning with “Sitting in Limbo”, this one live from the Capitol Theatre in Passaic, NJ back in 1980:




    Now let's roll up the sleeves and head to TGITG...


    Item: Can Loyola score vs. a defense that doesn’t have a weakness

    The joy of Loyola/Kansas State is that one of the teams will on the way to the Final Four. The lament is that for the other the season ends today. What has been special is that they have reached this round not because of having great basketball players, but of playing great basketball, and it has been a joy to watch.

    From the Ramblers it has been elegant X’s and O’s basketball; from the Wildcats it has been grit, especially on defense, and it does lead to the opening stage for the game handicap – what happens when an offense that is built on exploiting weaknesses runs into a defense that doesn’t have any?

    Loyola runs textbook offense, a balance that does need to be charted out to be properly appreciated:

    PPG Ast TO
    Custer 13.4 130 65
    Ingram 11.3 56 50
    Townes 11.2 88 72
    Jackson 11.2 35 57
    Krutwig 10.4 63 49
    Richardson 6.4 101 40

    It has led them to #67 in the nation in offensive efficiency, which may not jump off the charts, but that is because it is adjusted for the schedule difficulty. Hence these next three categories will look better than they should, because they are not adjusted:

    Eff FG% #7
    3-Pt# #15
    2-Pt% #11

    But that does show what balance and flexibility can do, finding weaknesses in the opponents and exploiting them. Thursday’s win over Nevada was a clinic in that regard. The matchup issue for Porter Moser’s team was facing a defense with a lot of length on the perimeter, all Ramblers except post-man Cameron Krutwig being guarded by a taller defender. It caused problems early, Loyola falling down 20-8 and appearing to be physically overmatched. But then two keys: 1. The defensive picked up the intensity to allow the offense an opportunity to get back in the game; and 2. Moser and the offense figured it out.

    Look at this rather remarkable offensive sequencing, following the second media timeout of the game, when Loyola trailed 20-12:

    Marques Townes made Layup.
    14 - 20
    Bruno Skokna missed Layup.
    14 - 22
    Cameron Krutwig Offensive Rebound.
    14 - 22
    Cameron Krutwig made Two Point Tip Shot.
    16 - 22
    Clayton Custer made Layup.
    21 - 24
    Clayton Custer made Layup.
    23 - 24
    Marques Townes made Layup.
    30 - 26
    Ben Richardson made Layup. Assisted by Marques Townes.
    32 - 26
    Marques Townes made Dunk. Assisted by Ben Richardson.
    34 - 26
    Ben Richardson made Layup. Assisted by Marques Townes.
    36 - 26
    Aundre Jackson made Layup.
    38 - 28
    Aundre Jackson made Layup.
    42 - 31
    Marques Townes made Layup.
    44 - 34
    Donte Ingram made Layup. Assisted by Clayton Custer.
    46 - 38
    Clayton Custer made Layup.
    48 - 38
    Aundre Jackson made Layup. Assisted by Marques Townes.
    55 - 45
    Clayton Custer made Layup.
    57 - 47
    Ben Richardson made Layup.
    59 - 55
    Aundre Jackson made Layup. Assisted by Ben Richardson.
    64 - 60



    What was the plan? Have the smaller players take the taller guys off the dribble and get to the rim, and it worked, over and over again. In turning the game around there were 17 layups, dunks or tip-ins. The Ramblers will be forever charted as having shot superbly, 29-52 from the field, but in truth their success came not from shooting well, but from the fact that they didn’t take all that many “shots”. It reminded me such much of the legendary Pete Carril in terms of generating points from design, and for anyone that would like an enlightening read during Final Four week, you can search out The Smart Take From the Strong.

    But now the matchup changes. Kansas State is #14 in the nation in defensive efficiency, keyed by outstanding ball pressure, and while the Wildcats look good enough at #3 in Steal%, call them #1 – that category is not schedule adjusted, and they recorded their steals vs. far tougher competition than #1 Fordham and #2 Stephen F. Austin.

    Is there something in the matchup that Moser and his players can find to exploit tactically? If not, can they still manage to score via talent? That is where the handicap for this game begins, and it is a challenging one.


    Item: Can the Florida State offense play with patience

    The Michigan story has been told a few times here this season because it deviates from the norm. Yes, it is another typical John Beilein offense, albeit with those poor showings vs. Montana and Houston, a team that takes care of the ball (#2 in the nation in TO%), and spaces well, especially with the ability to play inside-out when Moe Wagner venbtures away from the basket. It is the defense that has been different, far different, and since it is the ability of Florida State to attack them in the half-court that matters so much, let’s do a quick review.

    Here is how Michigan has fared defensively since the start of the 2011 season, a span in which the Wolverines have been good enough to play in 21 NCAA tourney games:

    2011 #37
    2012 #56
    2013 #37
    2014 #89
    2015 #100
    2016 #92
    2017 #69
    2018 #3



    The Michigan defense has generally been decent, but nothing special, until this season. This time around they have been superb, not just in getting stops, but in clearing the boards afterwards, #31 in D-Reb%. It is a combination of size, athleticism, determination and tactics, the components you would wish to have when building a defense, and note that when it all comes together something else also happens – it takes the opposition a long time to find a good shot.

    Michigan rated #299 in opponent’s possession length this season, and that is what sets up one of the key aspects of this matchup:

    Possession Length
    FSU O 16.0 (42)
    Mich D 18.0 (299)

    Florida State likes to play fast, the Seminoles being gifted with athleticism and depth, combining to create a motor that rarely stops. But now we go back to a question from earlier in the week, and one that was unanswered because of the nature of FSU’s easy ride vs. Gonzaga – does Leonard Hamilton have a “Best 5” that he can rely on if a game turns into a grinder?

    The Seminoles went 10 deep again vs. the Zags, Terance Mann the only one to play more than 26 minutes, and the only player to reach double figures. The pace flowed well for FSU, and it could because Gonzaga didn’t mind tempo, nor did Xavier in the second round last Sunday. But now look at how the matchup changes:

    Offensive APL
    Xavier 16.2 (54)
    Gonzaga 16.2 (56)
    Michigan 18.7 (309)

    Florida State may well have to shift gears here, which raises one of the most important questions of the handicap – can the various players in the Seminole rotation break a sweat and get into sync in a slower affair?

    The sample size for this season is small, but in regulation play they were 2-3-2 SU and 1-6 ATS (two games went into overtime) in lined games against teams that finished #285 or lower in overall tempo, the only ATS success against Missouri in the first round of the NCAA tourney, albeit a disheveled Tiger team trying to figure out how to play with Michael Porter, and without Jordan Barnett.


    Item: Is this the toughest defensive challenge for Villanova

    A key element in using TGITG as a mode of analysis is being able to get into specific matchup elements that can go beyond power ratings, and the two Villanova games in this bracket in Boston are a prime example On Friday there was a disadvantage that West Virginia faced because not only are the Wildcats the best team in the nation, but from a style standpoint also the single toughest matchup for Bob Huggins and his pressure defense. West Virginia allowed 90 points on 1.2 PPP in losing that game.

    Now comes a fascination for Sunday. I have written often about how good this Villanova offense is, #2 in all of college basketball over the last decade on adjusted PP100, trailing only 2015 Wisconsin. But might the Wildcats be running into the toughest defense for them to face?

    It is both a matter of quality and style, the quality easy to see because Texas Tech now rates at #3 on the 2018 defensive charts, and I believe that the positioning is proper because it is schedule-adjusted. You can look at the categories that aren’t adjusted for difficulty and see how well they have played across the board, in truth TT being even better in each of the categories because of their #24 slate of opponents:

    Eff FG% #13
    TO% #16
    Blk Sht% #26

    Some defenses are strong because they take the ball away (West Virginia). Some don’t pressure as much, but make it difficult to find good looks in the half-court (Virginia). The Red Raiders are both facets, with enough length (#63 in Average Height) and depth (#36 in bench minutes) for Chris Beard to have tools to work with, and Beard has done an excellent job of getting them to play both with technique, and tenacity.



    Let’s go to the major difference between Friday and Sunday. As noted when putting together the TGITG for Villanova/WVU, there was a prime matchup issue of one of the nation’s best 3-point shooting teams facing a defense that gives up a lot of open looks on the perimeter. It turned out to be a major component of the outcome, the Wildcats knocking down 13-24 beyond the arc. But consider how vastly different West Virginia and Texas Tech are in this part of the game:

    3-Pt% Defense
    WVU 38.0 (318)
    TT 32.8 (50)

    The Red Raiders have the substance to make Jalen Brunson & Co. work harder for their points than in any game this season, yet there is the prospect of Sunday’s Villanova favoritism closing a full basket higher than it did on Friday. Texas Tech works for me at +8; over the next 24 hours or so I may have to determine if I want to take a bite from something slightly lesser.


    Item: Will the Blue Devils be the Lords of the Boards

    Often when we get to this stage there is the weighing of subtle matchup edges to see how they balance out; in this one there is a category (or two) that may be substantial. Back in December there was a lead take here on Bill Self and his Jayhawks, which focused on a lack of both experience and physical toughness for this year’s team. To the credit of both the coach and the players they worked around it and had a strong run through the Big 12, winning both the regular-season crown and the conference tourney, the latter coming despite the absence of key inside cog Udoka Azubuike.

    The key in terms of analysis is that they really did work “around it”, using strengths in other areas to overcome weakness. But this never did become a team that physically intimidated anyone, especially on the boards, and it leads to a major component of this matchup:

    Rebound %
    Kansas "D" 31.5 (295)
    Duke "O" 39.2 (1)

    Yes, Kansas is better than that because the category is not schedule-adjusted, but Duke is every bit of that #1 because of the opponents the Blue Devils have been up against. It doesn’t take the eye test long to see why, with Marvin Bagley being as quick off of his feet to get to offensive caroms as any big man in memory, and Wendell Carter also on his way to the NBA.

    How tough is that tandem? You can go to a source like NBADraft.net, and see that both Bagley and Carter are projected as lottery picks (Bagley certainly will be, Carter is right around the edge). How often is it that a team that 6-11/235 and 6-10/260 lottery picks playing together in the low post? It is exceedingly rare. And this is the one season that Self has had to field a team that lacks depth around the basket.



    Azubuike may be 7-0/280, and could have an NBA upside later, but he is still a work in progress, and can be foul-prone – in 47 minutes vs. Seton Hall and Clemson over the last two rounds he has been whistled nine times. There aren’t a lot of other big bodies that can be mixed into the equation, Mitch Lightfoot a lithe 6-8/210, and Silvio De Sousa not ready for big minutes yet vs. this class of competition.

    How has Kansas survived this weakness? Excellent ball movement and terrific shooting, the Jayhawks #5 in Effective FG%. But Duke is #10 in Effective FG% defense, including #20 in guarding 3-point shots, the 2-3 zone not having the savvy of the Syracuse edition because of a lack of experience, but bringing plenty of size and length. And the fact that the Jayhawks rely on shooting, rather than driving to create fouls, also points out another one-sided component of this one:

    FTA/FGA
    Kansas "O" 27.1 (329)
    Duke "D" 22.3 (1)

    For Kansas to play well in this matchup the Jayhawks are going to have to make a lot of shots, because the other aspects don’t add up well. It is a different story for Mike Krzyzewski and his team, and that will put #721 Duke (5:05 Eastern) into pocket, with a realistic prospect of finding a -3 between now and tipoff, but -3.5 good enough on the value meter.



    If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as it unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 03-24-18 at 09:47 AM.

  2. #2
    RMFT
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    The Saturday edition is now up and running, which takes a dive into all four Elite 8 games, including one of the keys to FSU/Michigan - can the Seminoles remain patient in a game that will be played at a grinder's pace. I don't believe they can, but I am also not enthralled with the price point, having hoped for a crack at a -3.
    FSU Money showing, bringing it to -4...

  3. #3
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by RMFT View Post

    FSU Money showing, bringing it to -4...
    Some Kansas money as well, so the opportunity to get to Duke -3 is there, as well as the prospect of a Michigan/Duke M.L. hook-up, should the weekend markets do what often happens at tourney time, and reduce those parameters below where they should be (if I can get Michigan to -190 or less and Duke to -160 or less I will connect them).

  4. #4
    jakedittler
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    Southpoint has Duke at -3 -105 at this moment. Do we lock it in now? Full unit? Maybe 2/3's unit with more if it continues to move? How do you play a situation like this Dave? Where 3.5 was the target, but hoped for 3 and got that very quickly. Still over 24 hours till tip.

  5. #5
    jakedittler
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    Also, if you do get -190/-160, how do you play that on top of Duke -3. 5dimes has -190 and -158 on Duke. So it's already there. Thanks.

  6. #6
    MoneyWithNoCash
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    On point like always , you hear Sitting In Limbo on the way to the Promised Land before you get to the gates and then the Wall of Sound cranks up Uncle Johns Band... Red Raiders nitty gritty rollin Dave, need a curveball shooting night from Jay Wright’s squad to get Little Rocks finest into the final dance and a boosting of my bankroll for some Lucas Giolito action around the way, Good luck to all down the home stretch

  7. #7
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    Southpoint has Duke at -3 -105 at this moment. Do we lock it in now? Full unit? Maybe 2/3's unit with more if it continues to move? How do you play a situation like this Dave? Where 3.5 was the target, but hoped for 3 and got that very quickly. Still over 24 hours till tip.
    It is a waiting game for now, with CRIS taking a dive down to Duke -2.5, which may influence some others (UPDATING: That influence is in play, plenty of Duke -2.5 now to be found off-shore, though it hasn't dented the Nevada market yet).
    Last edited by Point Blank; 03-24-18 at 11:04 AM.

  8. #8
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    Also, if you do get -190/-160, how do you play that on top of Duke -3. 5dimes has -190 and -158 on Duke. So it's already there. Thanks.
    I probably should have also stated the the M.L. should be a waiting game - folks betting favorites to win don't mind laying -3 or -4, but they do mind laying more than -150. But for the underdog backers in the marketplace, even the reduced offerings on FSU and Kansas may still look attractive. I plan to wait those out, and for those that live in Nevada, the shortest Money Line prices of tourney favorites have tended to show in our state, a reflection of the preferences of the visitors that come here each March to bet these games.

  9. #9
    jakedittler
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    Duke is crashing as we speak. 5dimes already down to -2.5 -108

  10. #10
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    Duke is crashing as we speak. 5dimes already down to -2.5 -108
    It is an extremely active marketplace right now, including the first sightings of Loyola going to -1. I haven't been expecting to be involved there before tipoff, but if Kansas State ever reaches +2 a piece of that will go into pocket.

  11. #11
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyWithNoCash View Post
    On point like always , you hear Sitting In Limbo on the way to the Promised Land before you get to the gates and then the Wall of Sound cranks up Uncle Johns Band... Red Raiders nitty gritty rollin Dave, need a curveball shooting night from Jay Wright’s squad to get Little Rocks finest into the final dance and a boosting of my bankroll for some Lucas Giolito action around the way, Good luck to all down the home stretch
    On days like this, when the various idiosyncrasies of Giolito and so many other hurlers are being studied, there is absolutely nothing wrong with hitting repeat on "Sitting in Limbo" and letting it cascade across the mind a few times...

  12. #12
    straface23
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    For someone interested in both Duke -2.5 and the Duke/Mich ML parlay, how would you split that bet? A unit on each? Would that be investing too much in the Duke side? 50/50?

  13. #13
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by straface23 View Post
    For someone interested in both Duke -2.5 and the Duke/Mich ML parlay, how would you split that bet? A unit on each? Would that be investing too much in the Duke side? 50/50?
    There is a market development that may alter those plans a bit - for me Michigan is a "go" at -3, and there is the opportunity of find one in play now. If that does not show, my likely investment would be a full position to Duke at -2.5, and then a half position on Duke/Michigan M.L.; a bit of an extension on the Blue Devils, but also accepting that the second investment is being made to open up "1" and "2" as win numbers, so the added outlay still fits the portfolio.

  14. #14
    Michael Bopst
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    Hey David,

    Thank you for that advanced betting strategy. I often think the bet setup is equally important to the handicap and price point, but doesn't get the consideration it deserves.

  15. #15
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Bopst View Post
    I often think the bet setup is equally important to the handicap and price point, but doesn't get the consideration it deserves.
    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    72 for 2h? what game are they watching? this is a rock fight......took the under

    Currently tied for Best Post of 2018, with the winner getting some sort of prize, TBD (I'll have to go through the closets and drawers to find something to give away).

    (Puffkit's reference was to the UMBC/Kansas State halftime line, with the 2nd Half falling on 48)

  16. #16
    Lago
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    Currently tied for Best Post of 2018, with the winner getting some sort of prize, TBD (I'll have to go through the closets and drawers to find something to give away).

    (Puffkit's reference was to the UMBC/Kansas State halftime line, with the 2nd Half falling on 48)
    Yes, I recall reading the post and thinking, well those guys know what they're doing. Kept my hand in my pocket and watched it play out. Ugh passed up an easy one.

  17. #17
    badgerdad08
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    On a nice roll with the music videos? Will we see more after March Madness?

  18. #18
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by badgerdad08 View Post
    On a nice roll with the music videos? Will we see more after March Madness?
    Every Friday, so that those crunching the numbers across the weekend have the appropriate background. A group vote a while back has cemented Widespread Panic as being the official "House Band" for MLB 2018, so they will get most summer Friday's, the ideal long-play backgrounds. But there will be some kind of theme upcoming for the NBA playoffs, the first being "Canadian Rock Friday" as long as the Raptors are alive, which might be a while this time around.

  19. #19
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    Currently tied for Best Post of 2018, with the winner getting some sort of prize, TBD (I'll have to go through the closets and drawers to find something to give away).

    (Puffkit's reference was to the UMBC/Kansas State halftime line, with the 2nd Half falling on 48)
    Quote Originally Posted by Lago View Post
    Yes, I recall reading the post and thinking, well those guys know what they're doing. Kept my hand in my pocket and watched it play out. Ugh passed up an easy one.
    Though Puffkit is still losing on the tie-breaker because he didn't tell us all to bet his alma mater on the M.L. vs. Virginia...
    Last edited by Point Blank; 03-24-18 at 01:54 PM.

  20. #20
    puffkit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    Currently tied for Best Post of 2018, with the winner getting some sort of prize, TBD (I'll have to go through the closets and drawers to find something to give away).

    (Puffkit's reference was to the UMBC/Kansas State halftime line, with the 2nd Half falling on 48)
    dave ....quick question as to why that line was off so much....was it just that they didnt know what to make of umbc? were they basing the 2H number off of the umbc 2H barrage against uva? seems there's a good edge there for us in a situations like that.......would like to know and tuck that away for the next time a 16 beats a 1

  21. #21
    puffkit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    Though Puffkit is still losing on the tie-breaker because he didn't tell us all to bet his alma mater in the M.L. vs. Virginia...
    must have been the pregame forum i posted that in........

    don't worry though....the next time umbc is in a 16 vs 1 situation i'll be sure to let you know to hit the ML right away

  22. #22
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    dave ....quick question as to why that line was off so much....was it just that they didnt know what to make of umbc? were they basing the 2H number off of the umbc 2H barrage against uva? seems there's a good edge there for us in a situations like that.......would like to know and tuck that away for the next time a 16 beats a 1
    The overwhelming majority of time it comes down to "The Chart", based on where the Full Game opened and closed. If we use Pinny as the guide, Kansas State was -10.5 to -10, and 135.5 to 136.5. So 10 and 136.5 is how they see the markets as ultimately grading the game prior to tipoff. That also calls for the First Half/Second Half Totals to be projected in the range of 63/73, based on the historical norms.

    So as halftime approached "The Chart" called for something in the 73 range, which got adjusted down a tick. Why don't they adjust more? Because the halftime score had the game sitting on 45, which meant that the new Full Game Total being dealt was 117. They can't go too much lower than that, because there are bettors who will play an extreme game back towards the closing line, especially at tournament time. Hence they didn't have to make the Second Half Total any lower than 72, because that price was already offering folks the opportunity to bet Over 117 on a game that closed 136.5.

    Game flows are a consideration, and a part of the line-making process, but for settings like that the historical norms across the betting markets carry more weight. That is why a game that looked to be in total control of the defenses to the naked eye, got priced far differently than that flow was calling for.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: The Gooch, and unclejimmy

  23. #23
    puffkit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    The overwhelming majority of time it comes down to "The Chart", based on where the Full Game opened and closed. If we use Pinny as the guide, Kansas State was -10.5 to -10, and 135.5 to 136.5. So 10 and 136.5 is how they see the markets as ultimately grading the game prior to tipoff. That also calls for the First Half/Second Half Totals to be projected in the range of 63/73, based on the historical norms.

    So as halftime approached "The Chart" called for something in the 73 range, which got adjusted down a tick. Why don't they adjust more? Because the halftime score had the game sitting on 45, which meant that the new Full Game Total being dealt was 117. They can't go too much lower than that, because there are bettors who will play an extreme game back towards the closing line, especially at tournament time. Hence they didn't have to make the Second Half Total any lower than 72, because that price was already offering folks the opportunity to bet Over 117 on a game that closed 136.5.

    Game flows are a consideration, and a part of the line-making process, but for settings like that the historical norms across the betting markets carry more weight. That is why a game that looked to be in total control of the defenses to the naked eye, got priced far differently than that flow was calling for.
    so in a situation like that when they are captive to the numbers are they posting that 72 with a pit in their stomach? its a catch 22 for them and a great oppurtunity for us.....doesnt mean it wins but much more variability on their side without the means to reduce it

  24. #24
    The Gooch
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    Loyola-Chi should not be looked upon as an upstart. I always attend the MVC tourney and they ran it like Wich St did before they moved on. Nobody touched them. So they are accustomed to winning. The matchup is not great, but I did not think they would get by Nevada. K St will not shoot the same from behind the arc. Not in love with it, but I tilt towards Loyola here.

  25. #25
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    The overwhelming majority of time it comes down to "The Chart", based on where the Full Game opened and closed. If we use Pinny as the guide, Kansas State was -10.5 to -10, and 135.5 to 136.5. So 10 and 136.5 is how they see the markets as ultimately grading the game prior to tipoff. That also calls for the First Half/Second Half Totals to be projected in the range of 63/73, based on the historical norms.

    So as halftime approached "The Chart" called for something in the 73 range, which got adjusted down a tick. Why don't they adjust more? Because the halftime score had the game sitting on 45, which meant that the new Full Game Total being dealt was 117. They can't go too much lower than that, because there are bettors who will play an extreme game back towards the closing line, especially at tournament time. Hence they didn't have to make the Second Half Total any lower than 72, because that price was already offering folks the opportunity to bet Over 117 on a game that closed 136.5.

    Game flows are a consideration, and a part of the line-making process, but for settings like that the historical norms across the betting markets carry more weight. That is why a game that looked to be in total control of the defenses to the naked eye, got priced far differently than that flow was calling for.
    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    so in a situation like that when they are captive to the numbers are they posting that 72 with a pit in their stomach? its a catch 22 for them and a great oppurtunity for us.....doesnt mean it wins but much more variability on their side without the means to reduce it
    Just checking Pinny alone it appears that they did not get hurt with that halftime total, opening 72.5 and closing 72. What it tells them, and also us, is that had they opened it 71, it may well have been bet up to 72. The one comfort they have is that they truly don't have to vary too far from "The Chart", because there will be some audience segments out there looking for any extreme event to regress back towards the original expectations. Of course in this case, given how fragile the expectations would be for a team like UMBC because of the lack of tracking, the behaviors could easily have been much different.

    For folks that want to play along with the Halftime mind game today, most of the shops would be sitting right know with a "first thought" of Loyola/Kansas State 68/69 and the FSU/Michigan in the range of 75.5/76.5 as their base ranges for the Second Half Total, and then will shade from there based on game flow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    Every Friday, so that those crunching the numbers across the weekend have the appropriate background. A group vote a while back has cemented Widespread Panic as being the official "House Band" for MLB 2018, so they will get most summer Friday's, the ideal long-play backgrounds. But there will be some kind of theme upcoming for the NBA playoffs, the first being "Canadian Rock Friday" as long as the Raptors are alive, which might be a while this time around.
    ooooooh....canadian rock friday.....count me in.......maybe someone we've seen on mel's rockpile?

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    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    ...maybe someone we've seen on mel's rockpile?
    Though the standards here don't have any particular boundaries, perhaps that is where I would choose to set one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    Just checking Pinny alone it appears that they did not get hurt with that halftime total, opening 72.5 and closing 72. What it tells them, and also us, is that had they opened it 71, it may well have been bet up to 72. The one comfort they have is that they truly don't have to vary too far from "The Chart", because there will be some audience segments out there looking for any extreme event to regress back towards the original expectations. Of course in this case, given how fragile the expectations would be for a team like UMBC because of the lack of tracking, the behaviors could easily have been much different.

    For folks that want to play along with the Halftime mind game today, most of the shops would be sitting right know with a "first thought" of Loyola/Kansas State 68/69 and the FSU/Michigan in the range of 75.5/76.5 as their base ranges for the Second Half Total, and then will shade from there based on game flow.
    A good case study here, so that folks can understand the processes - even with the game more one-sided than projected, there is no major reason for the shops to move off of "The Chart". So they spent the First Half with 68/69 as the base for the 2nd Half Total, and what are we looking at? 68.5 and 69.

    That is how this stuff works.

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    kst has 12 pts on turnovers.....so that means they have 12 pts when running their offense (not off a turnover)? wow.....thats great defense. so if loy chi takes care of the ball better in the 2h don't we likely see loy chi extend their lead?

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    [QUOTE=Point Blank;27674873]A good case study here, so that folks can understand the processes - even with the game more one-sided than projected, there is no major reason for the shops to move off of "The Chart". So they spent the First Half with 68/69 as the base for the 2nd Half Total, and what are we looking at? 68.5 and 69.
    the difference here is that the teams are having different amounts of success...... in umbc/kst they both were shooting poorly / playing aggressive D successfully. here only one team is pulling that off...... if k st was better on D (or loy chi not hitting) we might have a 50 total at half .....then would they post a 2h 75?

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    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
    kst has 12 pts on turnovers.....so that means they have 12 pts when running their offense (not off a turnover)? wow.....thats great defense. so if loy chi takes care of the ball better in the 2h don't we likely see loy chi extend their lead?
    "Maintain" fits better than "Extend", from betting purposes.But the Loyola quality of basketball has been a pleasure to watch. I sincerely hope, if there is such a thing as an afterlife, Rick Majerus is watching (if you don't get the connection you can go here, and yes, you should absolutely click that link).

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    [QUOTE=puffkit;27674886]
    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    A good case study here, so that folks can understand the processes - even with the game more one-sided than projected, there is no major reason for the shops to move off of "The Chart". So they spent the First Half with 68/69 as the base for the 2nd Half Total, and what are we looking at? 68.5 and 69.
    the difference here is that the teams are having different amounts of success...... in umbc/kst they both were shooting poorly / playing aggressive D successfully. here only one team is pulling that off...... if k st was better on D (or loy chi not hitting) we might have a 50 total at half .....then would they post a 2h 75?
    75 would be too far off of "The Chart". One of the keys for bettors to understand is that the oddsmakers will rarely deviate more than a basket from what the original blueprint called for. UMBC/K St was a great call by you in that regard, but if the Shops stay within 2-3 points of what the 2nd Half projection would be when the game started, they are not going to get stung.

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    [QUOTE=Point Blank;27674896]
    Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post

    75 would be too far off of "The Chart". One of the keys for bettors to understand is that the oddsmakers will rarely deviate more than a basket from what the original blueprint called for. UMBC/K St was a great call by you in that regard, but if the Shops stay within 2-3 points of what the 2nd Half projection would be when the game started, they are not going to get stung.
    how would it be too far off if the closing total was 126 and the half total was 50?

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    [QUOTE=puffkit;27674903]
    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post

    how would it be too far off if the closing total was 126 and the half total was 50?
    It really takes injuries, major foul trouble, or a major Side blowout, to get the shops off of "The Chart". Why is that? Because that same chart is also what anchors the betting markets. So it truly takes extreme circumstances for them to get beyond a made 3-point shot of their original projections. If they go beyond that they are aware of what happens - the first bets coming in will be for the game to play back towards the original projections, which has tended to be the market behavior.

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    i think i'm getting it. so by staying with the chart for a 2h they are not compounding their exposure when they missed on the 1H high or low.

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