1. #1
    Point Blank
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    PB (2/13): Beyond the Stats: Reading Between the Lines on the Tuesday Board


    Beyond the Stats: Reading Between the Lines on the Tuesday Board…This time Frank Martin has a South Carolina team that isn’t so “Game”…It is mid-February, and the betting markets still don’t like Nebraska (so here we go again)…


    Point Blank – February 13, 2018

    Many of the days here are spent in deep dives across various statistical patterns to try to unlock some subtle, but significant, performance aspects; it is all about doing the digging to be ahead of the markets. Today’s board offers a crash course in those elements that can’t be easily measured by numbers, and I will make that the lead.

    In setting up the weekend edition last Friday the writing time brought the occasional glances at the screen to see who would be the first to post Cavaliers/Hawks, the challenge of trying to figure out who would be available for Cleveland, and in what rotation. Now this morning is occupied with who will be brave enough to go first with Spurs/Nuggets, and that is where we can start…


    Item: The Popovich conundrum becomes the market conundrum
    Sub-Item: How Utah got it done last night is worth the search

    It is extremely rare for the NBA to have a team play at the altitude sites of Salt Lake City and Denver on back-to-back nights, in either order, and for the Spurs it is make even more difficult because the sequence began at Golden State on Saturday. Gregg Popovich has already been dealing with the shuffling on his rotations because of minor injuries (no Dejounte Murray or Tony Parker vs. the Spurs; no LaMarcus Aldridge until after the All Star break), which led to a comment in the Monday thread about watching for clues closely for those involved in In-Running – if San Antonio lost contact, would Pops have waved a white flag, and save as much energy as possible from his key cogs for tonight?

    That did not happen. The Spurs were only down by six at halftime, and seemingly took command in the third quarter, building a lead that stretched out to 13 with 9:29 remaining. It was becoming close to the ideal setting for Popovich – get one win in pocket for the cycle, which can be badly needed as the playoff chase unfolds (the Spurs could fall into the #4 slot this evening, should they lose and Minnesota win), and then back off the throttle at Denver.

    It didn’t work. San Antonio got closed out 31-16 over that last stretch, which now makes “reading between the lines” such a key part of building a power rating for tonight’s game at Denver. Aldridge isn’t even with the team; now a big focus is finding out the status of others, since the first to market may find themselves in an opportune position.





    There was also a flip side of the equation at Salt Lake City that matters to the handicapper – you don’t want to get caught making easy assumptions, without doing your homework. If the Jazz won back-to-back games without Ricky Rubio, it would seem to indicate that the offense runs OK with Royce O’Neale at PG, right?. Be careful with that – O’Neale did not have a single assist over 38:18, and part of the reason why Utah fell behind in double figures was the offense bogging down.

    If the Jazz rallied to win with defense, it meant a big impact down the stretch from Rudy Gobert, right? You would be caught napping there also. Gobert was given a breather with 6:23 left, his team trailing 85-79, but Derrick Favors played so well that one of the best defensive players in the NBA remained on the bench the rest of the way.

    There were some details beyond the box score worth filing from several directions. First the admiration Popovich has for the way that Utah plays the game: “Everything is coming to fruition. They believe in the system. It takes a while to put a system in. You have to have players of character who will understand it and execute it.”

    Now for some sporting honesty from Quin Snyder: ''This is one of those games you're fortunate to win. You have to catch some breaks. We just continued to compete. That's really all it comes down to. When you do that, you put yourself in a position to catch a break.''

    And how about Gobert’s appreciation of Snyder, and accepting his role down the stretch: ''I don't know if there's a lot of coach-player relationships like we have. He trusted me from the beginning, so I trust him too.''

    That extra digging can pay off in so many ways in getting the proper understanding of a team, and can steer the handicapper from the danger of making false assumptions. Like perhaps expecting a Frank Martin team to go out and scrap hard physically…

    (Meanwhile it looks like Denver -6.5 and 208 will be the range; now time to begin the search for info.)


    Item: Right now South Carolina isn’t so “game”

    Martin’s Gamecocks have been under a microscope of late because 11 days ago there was an Under ticket put into play with them at Texas A&M, in a game I expected to be a bruising battle around the basket, and an intense scramble for loose balls. You can always count on a Martin team to play hard and never back done, right?

    I was wrong that day, South Carolina losing contact early and not putting up any kind of fight, an 83-60 final that wasn’t really that close, and it finished above the 138.5 that had gone into pocket. When a Martin team doesn’t punch back in a game does that mean they come out with fire the next time out? That has not been the case at all, losses to Arkansas and Florida by a combined 40 points, despite the Gamecocks only being a collective +10 at tipoff across those games.

    It is in the reading between the lines that we are told to not be thinking about this team as past editions, and not falling into the trap of assumptions. Yes, Carolina will have games in which the shots won’t fall, which is a real weakness with this bunch. But what if the fight simply isn’t there either?

    This from Martin made the files, after the 65-41 drubbing vs. Florida: “We’re a hurt team right now…We’re a team lacking spirit. We got beat in every category that’s about effort and discipline. They only scored 65 and we had given up 80 three straight games. So everyone’s going to say, ‘Well, you guys guarded better.’ No we didn’t. We didn’t guard through the disciplines that we teach.”





    And from senior guard Frank Booker: “Passion, that’s it. Right now we’re playing kind of stagnant. We’re not playing like the team that we know we are, moving the ball, playing great defense, helping each other out. If somebody gets beat, be there. If someone else gets beat, we rotate. Little things like that that we’re not doing anymore.”

    When things are going good for a Martin team there can be edges at the windows because it means they are doing a lot of the little things that don’t show up in box scores. For now there is no one tracking “loose ball percentage”, but in that dramatic run to the Final Four LY it seemed like any time that there was a loose ball in an SC game the Gamecocks were 60-40, or better, to come up with it.

    That has been part of my handicapping mindset with Martin teams for several seasons; for now I have to reduce the weighting I give to their “effort” categories, and other handicappers may wish to do the same. Will they bring grit for a revenge setting at Tennessee this evening? If I see it I will adjust for their next game, but I will not have that as my anticipation.


    Item: And of course there are the new-look Cavaliers

    Naturally Cleveland 121 Boston 99 went under the microscope on Sunday, as will Cavs/Thunder this evening, trying to learn as much as possible about the new Cleveland rotation, both in terms of quality and style. Digging beyond the numbers becomes a prime focus from the start, and there were several items to note.

    First is something that I write about here often, taking the time to view any particular team from the other side of the equation, and this from Brad Stevens was worth filing away: ''Yeah, we stunk. But they were really good. They had a lot to do with that.''

    From the Cleveland side one couldn’t help but think that LeBron was both praising his new teammates, and taking one last shot at some of the players that were discarded: “At the end of the day, I just like being around guys who want to play and work hard. I know I demand a lot of excellence from my teammates, but I demand it out of myself too. We want to roll. We want to try to play as well as we can and put ourselves in contention to compete for another championship, and that’s my mindset.”





    From a practical basketball standpoint a key is going to be defense, which was abysmal before the deal, and the issue of not having a rim protector has not been solved. But there is a genuine degree of upside, so let’s go to Tyronn Lue: Brad [Stevens] does a great job of putting guys on the floor where they can switch a lot of things. I think with the trades that we made I think we can do the same thing. We can put guys on the floor that are similar sizes, and we can switch a lot of things [defensively].”

    The question becomes how much we get to learn this evening, with both Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony uncertain to go. That brings its own fascination in terms of Anthony – the Thunder floor game has looked better without him, and will lead to a lot of reading between the lines on that subject in the cycle ahead.


    In the Sights, Tuesday NCAA…

    I have gone to the well with Nebraska about as much as any team in a single-season in recent memory, and the Cornhuskers have both been lead topics and an almost constant part of the discussion threads on every one of their recent game days. I was mystified for weeks at why there was money against Tim Miles and his team in just about every Big 10 game, some of the moves substantial, and have just kept riding them out. The current trading is allowing for -1.5 to be put into pocket against Maryland, and that means yet one more time behind #524 Nebraska (7:00 Eastern).

    The Cornhuskers have simply been better than the Terrapins, and now that we are deep into the conference schedule, using the Big 10 only base count tells a tale:

    Net PPP 100
    Maryland -2.4
    Nebraska +5.4

    Yet tonight’s line is below where the home court advantage would project, despite the fact that Nebraska is also positioned to play well – this is only the third game in 15 days, and sandwiched between Rutgers and Illinois there is nothing preventing a team building in confidence from having their full focus on Maryland.

    The Terrapins have managed to gut out a 6-8 in league play despite being short-handed, but I believe that takes a toll down the stretch – Anthony Cowan has played 547 of a possible 565 minutes in Big 10 games, and for Kevin Huerter it has been 499 and Darryl Morsell 472. They have lost their last six Big 10 road trips, and in what is becoming an electric atmosphere in Lincoln they could play well tonight and still lose by a couple of baskets.



    If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as it unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 02-13-18 at 10:07 AM.
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  2. #2
    bjs2025
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    Really bizarre Nebraska situation right now. -3 still in some spots and -1.5 in others. 2/3 of tickets on Nebraska so far.

  3. #3
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjs2025 View Post
    Really bizarre Nebraska situation right now. -3 still in some spots and -1.5 in others. 2/3 of tickets on Nebraska so far.
    It has been the same story for over 5 weeks now - there is a market segment that has been playing heavily against Nebraska in just about every Big 10 game, which has created a nice little windfall for those opposing. I can't be sure it is the same folks out there again today, but by sitting back and waiting there have been some great Cornhusker prices locked in over this stretch.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 02-13-18 at 10:00 AM.

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  4. #4
    shakey12381
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    any reason for the steam on bc? i mean if you bet pitt close your eyes but bc shouldnt be laying 8 to anyone on the road

  5. #5
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by shakey12381 View Post
    any reason for the steam on bc? i mean if you bet pitt close your eyes but bc shouldnt be laying 8 to anyone on the road
    There are no new injuries to the Pittsburgh side, not that the Panthers necessarily have anyone playing at a level that would impact the line right now anyway. But I thought the opener was short, this one grading at BC -7.5 on my stuff, so there may have been others with similar #'s, and with Pitt losing the L3 games by 89 points, there may be some genuine questions about whether the Panthers still have respect for Kevin Stallings and his coaching staff (once again one of those notions that have us reading beyond the box scores).

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  6. #6
    shakey12381
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    Just where the number is at and pitt has owned bc. Pitt has to know this a chance not to go winless in acc this year

  7. #7
    straface23
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    Dave, any thoughts on Virginia/Miami or Oklahoma/Texas Tech?
    Last edited by straface23; 02-13-18 at 10:35 AM.

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    HockeyRocks
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjs2025 View Post
    Really bizarre Nebraska situation right now. -3 still in some spots and -1.5 in others. 2/3 of tickets on Nebraska so far.
    -1 at 5Dimes now..

  9. #9
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by straface23 View Post
    Dave, any thoughts on Virginia/Miami or Oklahoma/Texas Tech?
    Miami will be in pocket, the question is when to pull the trigger, since there is often a "bounce-back" market segment for teams like Virginia off of a loss. While the Cavalier tempo and defense frustrates many opponents the Hurricanes, have not been bothered all that much because half-court play has been a staple of the program. Only 1 of the past 10 meetings between these teams has been decided in double figured (a Virginia win in 2014), and 5 of them were within a single point at the end of regulation (4 OTs, and a 1-point Virginia win in 2012). Miami won in OT in Charlottesville in the only meeting LY, an ugly grinder that was 43-43 in regulation, and this sets up as another in which getting separation will be difficult.

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  10. #10
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjs2025 View Post
    Really bizarre Nebraska situation right now. -3 still in some spots and -1.5 in others. 2/3 of tickets on Nebraska so far.
    Quote Originally Posted by HockeyRocks View Post
    -1 at 5Dimes now..
    Most of the market heading to -1 now, which continues the "Cornhusker Conundrum". It means that someone is willing to take +1.5 now, on a game that opened at -3. Why any group would be willing to move at 1.5 the worst of the opener would ordinarily raise major questions, but since this has been going on for 5 weeks, it is simply a par for this particular course.

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  11. #11
    Point Blank
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    And after a bit of drumroll to set it up, here comes Nebraska Pick'em...

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  12. #12
    coolfish7
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    Hi all - any thoughts today about La Salle vs St. Bonny? It looks like Bonny might be without two of their top 3 forwards (Ayeni and Griffin, suspension and ankle, respectively), so even with the 1-1.5 pt move off the opener, this seems like a "cluster injury" situation that still might not be priced correctly in the market.

  13. #13
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by coolfish7 View Post
    Hi all - any thoughts today about La Salle vs St. Bonny? It looks like Bonny might be without two of their top 3 forwards (Ayeni and Griffin, suspension and ankle, respectively), so even with the 1-1.5 pt move off the opener, this seems like a "cluster injury" situation that still might not be priced correctly in the market.
    This is such a "danger zone" for St. Bonny, with that rare home game on national television vs. Rhode Island coming up on Friday that might be weighing on their collective conscience a bit. They seem to be adapting OK without Ayeni, who was getting less and less time as A10 play progressed, but if Griffin can't go there isn't much depth up front. But I don't get a chime until +3, part of that respecting how good Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley are at crunch time, and also because a recent loss on a LaSalle trip seems to be a bit of a warning for this group.

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  14. #14
    itz1010
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    Dave, I'm also on Nebraska, and the've been a wonderful play. Any concerns with KenPom ranking Maryland so much higher? I know Nebraska has had a really great home court..

  15. #15
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by itz1010 View Post
    Dave, I'm also on Nebraska, and the've been a wonderful play. Any concerns with KenPom ranking Maryland so much higher? I know Nebraska has had a really great home court..
    One of the things worth noting with KenPom, Jeff Sagarin and others is that they count all games the same, regardless of injuries, and hence where they have their specific weaknesses. KenPom counts the 321 minutes played by Justin Jackson, and the 184 from Ivan Bender, as still being a part of the current Maryland team, and their absences are a bit part of why Cowan and Huerter are having to carry such major workloads now.

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  16. #16
    BirdMaster
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    I know that we liked Iowa State at home over the weekend as sizable dogs. I see a similar line for them today hosting Kansas. Is there a notion that the Cyclones could hang in with the road favorite or possibly win outright as they did last time out for us?

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    Eric Nisbet
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    I was thinking about laying the 2 with Texas AM against Missouri? Any thoughts? Looks like there is some value to be had. Thanks David & have a good one!

  18. #18
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by BirdMaster View Post
    I know that we liked Iowa State at home over the weekend as sizable dogs. I see a similar line for them today hosting Kansas. Is there a notion that the Cyclones could hang in with the road favorite or possibly win outright as they did last time out for us?
    Iowa State is a fit at +7. Those last four Big 12 home games weren't just wins, but games in which they aggressively attacked some good teams and took command of the games:

    88 Oklahoma 80
    93 West Virginia 77
    70 Texas Tech 52
    75 Baylor 65

    That bodes well for their confidence level tonight, and they never lost contact in falling by 5 to the Jayhawks in Lawrence earlier. There has been the occasional +7.5 flashing today, but +7 is enough to pull the trigger.

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  19. #19
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Nisbet View Post
    I was thinking about laying the 2 with Texas AM against Missouri? Any thoughts? Looks like there is some value to be had. Thanks David & have a good one!
    A&M chimes ring at +3 in that one, which may still happen - there is +2.5 to be found now in some key precincts. These two played an ugly grinder in College Station earlier (60-49 for A&M), and I don't expect there to be much separation for the rematch.

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  20. #20
    nri77
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    I'm thinking about OU +7 traveling to take Texas Tech on in Lubbock. Thoughts?

    Feels like an ideal buy low (OU) and sell high (Tech) situation with an OU team desperate for another conference win after their rough stretch. Only hesitation is the freshmen wall that Trae Young has been working through

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    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by nri77 View Post
    I'm thinking about OU +7 traveling to take Texas Tech on in Lubbock. Thoughts?

    Feels like an ideal buy low (OU) and sell high (Tech) situation with an OU team desperate for another conference win after their rough stretch. Only hesitation is the freshmen wall that Trae Young has been working through
    I would need at least a +8 before any chimes ring there - there is such a gap between these teams in depth, which is really showing in defense and rebounding; the Red Raiders don't have anyone going a full 32 minutes through a dozen Big 12 games, which means that they are going out there fresh while other teams are wearing down a bit. The Sooners haven't lost contact much despite not winning many games of late, but I would be concerned about their ability to keep Tech off of the offensive boards.

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  22. #22
    Point Blank
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    And for those sorting out Cavaliers/Thunder tonight, note that both Westbrook and Anthony will play (not sure the latter matters all that much, but it will be interesting to track).
    Last edited by Point Blank; 02-13-18 at 05:26 PM.

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    The Gooch
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    Dave you highlighted Minny's defensive improvements as the team accumulated experience. Will it be enough to hold off Houston who is riding an 8 game winning streak or does that only ramp up the incentive in this spot?

  24. #24
    nri77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    And for those sorting out Cavaliers/Thunder tonight, note that both Westbrook and Anthony will play (not sure the latter matters all that much, but it will be interesting to track).
    Letís see if these Cavs are for real and not the mentally weak team thatís been the story of their season to date

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    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Gooch View Post
    Dave you highlighted Minny's defensive improvements as the team accumulated experience. Will it be enough to hold off Houston who is riding an 8 game winning streak or does that only ramp up the incentive in this spot?
    The highlights stopped early - all that they have managed to get out of adding Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, and having another year in the Tom Thibodeau system, is moving up from #26 to #24, which means some back-tracking of late. What has been downright horrific is this:

    4th Q D PP100
    MIN 114.1 (30)
    BRK 110.8 (29)
    ATL 110.8 (28)

    Not only are they last in 4th quarter defense, but they are literally in a league of their own. They have been winning more games because the offensive talent is so good, but that defense might be a problem area if this one is close late. Thibs may be a good tactician, but might he lack some of the communications skills to develop young players?

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  26. #26
    BirdMaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post


    (Meanwhile it looks like Denver -6.5 and 208 will be the range; now time to begin the search for info.)


    I like the look of the Denver team total OVER 106. Aside from the back to back for the Spurs, this game is on TNT, and that national exposure turns things up for a home team. Also Jamal Murray is a GTD so if he sits that means more Barton with the ball, he can score big numbers, and they have a depth of 3/4 type players that have energy and can score. I like the Nuggets to win easily and get over 110.

  27. #27
    Deezy
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    Just making everyone aware, Jamal Murray is playing tonight but he's suffering through some kind of chest ailment. With Devin Harris available to lighten the load on him, a play on his total pts under 16.5 might be a good idea.


  28. #28
    benjy21
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    Hey Dave,
    The market seems to be signalling that Kentucky situation is getting worse, and Calipari has lost the team. The market for the game at Auburn is now Tigers -10. What do you see in this matchup, and are they any opportunities to get involved?

  29. #29
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy21 View Post
    Hey Dave,
    The market seems to be signalling that Kentucky situation is getting worse, and Calipari has lost the team. The market for the game at Auburn is now Tigers -10. What do you see in this matchup, and are they any opportunities to get involved?
    Kentucky is such a difficult grade right now because of the inconsistency, but it is a fascinating matchup in that the Wildcat starters are 3.5 inches taller across the board, and their length may give Auburn all sorts of matchups headaches. The question is whether they have the moxie to withstand a frenzied environment, but John Calipari noted earlier in the week that perhaps this is actually what the team needs, like when they stepped up at West Virginia a couple of weeks ago. My numbers say that +10 goes into pocket, so it will, but perhaps with a pinch of trepidation because the mental toughness for this team has been sorely lacking.

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