1. #1
    Point Blank
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    PB (1/12): Weekend Edition - Making the Case for Why Keenum Has Been So Good


    Weekend Edition – On Making the Case For Why Keenum Has Been So Good…The problem with whistles on NCAA hoops Saturdays (and one of the best betting lessons I ever learned)…We are all still waiting for the first I.T. steal…


    Point Blank – January 12, 2018

    The best the NFL has left all take the stage this weekend, NCAA college conference play heats up, with the weighting of early conference results now becoming more of a factor in sharpening the power ratings, and we will see if Golden State can be road Warriors as their toughest trip of the season begins, at a time when not all hands may not be on deck.

    This will be the full weekend edition, the comments thread taking us up into Sunday evening, when both the NFC and AFC Championship games will be on the board. From now until the NCAA tourney most of my Friday’s will have me far off of the communications grid working on a non-sports project, but the cycle is convenient for that, the Friday college hoops boards light. Feel free to ask any questions and I will get to them in the order they were asked, and on most Saturday mornings I will also be posting from the basketball board as an “In the Sights…” both back into the main edition, and in the comments thread as it unfolds.

    There is a lot to sort through, so as is the case on most Friday’s the jukebox is plugged in, and this time I’ll bring a little bit of a twist to it. An improved New Orleans defense led to a lot of prime opportunities early in the season before the markets caught up, but now I believe it is time for the Saints to end their season, that unit not being what it once developed into because injuries have taken a toll. This weekend I believe they go “Marching In” to their off-season, so for a soothing background as you read through, let’s go to Bruce Springsteen and the Seeger Sessions Band, from about a decade ago -




    If you are looking for The Game Inside the Game for Jaguars/Steelers you can go here, and Falcons/Eagles and Titans/Patriots can be found here.


    Item: Saints/Vikings – Making the Case for why Keenum and the offense have been so good

    This is essentially Part II of a sequence, the opening coming back in the Monday Edition, along with the recommendation to lock in Minnesota at -3.5 while that was still available. The gist then was that not only has New Orleans been weakened defensively without Alex Okafor, A.J. Klein and Kenny Vacarro, but that the remaining depth could be severely taxed this week, after that unit was on the field for 152 plays vs. the Buccaneers and Panthers in the last two games. That is a particularly heavy load for a team that has essentially played three straight games with playoff “need” in a row already.

    The flip side into that defense is that those backing the Vikings get the Football Outsiders #5 offense as the tool to exploit them, and the #3 passing attack. That is a tribute to both talent and to tactics, and the way they connect helps to explain one of the prime riddles of the 2017 season – how was Case Keenum capable of this?

    Keenum has had a non-descript NFL career prior to this season, 24 largely uneventful starts for the Texans and Rams, yet he has rolled to career highs in Completion%, Yards Per Pass, TD%, INT% and naturally Passer Rating, a robust 98.3 that placed him #7 across NFL 2017. Some of this is a tribute to his ability to read defenses and manage a game, which did not always show with previous supporting casts, because the Vikings have surrounded him with both coaches and teammates that make it far easier for a QB than the vast majority of the league.





    I have been calling Mike Zimmer a “B+ version of Bill Belichick” as a compliment, and while the style and work ethic comparisons were the catalyst, perhaps he is now an A-, with the window open to elevate to A over the next few weeks, not neing be compared to anyone. What Zimmer has done is assemble an excellent cast of assistants (very Belichickian), and also build a roster based on flexibility, not focused on just getting the best overall talent, but on how that talent fits (very Belichickian).

    What has made the Minnesota offense so productive? Having the requisite proto-type players across the board, and let’s note that with WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, TE Kyle Rudolph and RB Jerick McKinnon all catching more than 50 passes, they were one of only three teams that could say that about 2 WRs, their TE and their RB (the Lions and the Belichick Patriots being the others).

    What makes this balance so important? It means that whatever holes an opposing defense has, the offense has a way to target it. That is such an under-rated part of football because it does not bring much sex appeal, but consider the chess board when you have the advantage of a single pawn – it is both a combination of having a strength in power, and also strategy as well.

    This strategic advantage can be seen both in what the Vikings did, which was generate points and yards, but to better understand it, you also need to factor in what they didn’t do:

    TO% Per Drive
    1. Chiefs 7.0
    2. Patriots 7.2
    3. Vikings 7.9
    NFL Avg 11.8

    Some Belichickian stuff again. When we add it up, in terms of exploiting a Saints defense with some holes at this stage, it brings a team that is savvy in play-calling and execution, one that by using those advantages rarely gives the ball away, and in particular a candidate to exacerbate a worn-down defense - Minnesota was #6 in the NFL in plays per drive.

    Has Keenum really been all that? Probably not – this was more of a coaching staff and an offense carrying their QB than the other way around. But I believe the collective package is enough to get the Vikings on to the NFC Championship game, although as this week has played out I have to found to have been part of what has become a bandwagon. I had a “go” at -4 or less, but respect the savvy of Drew Brees to limit it to that plateau.

    But if you can’t find the price that isn’t so bad – there are plenty of college hoops to invest in. Except that on some Saturday’s the savvy thing may be to whittle that board down…


    Item: On narrowing those Saturday NCAA boards, and I debt that I have owed across two decades

    Before getting to the first NFL kickoff there will be what appears like a zillion games to sort through on the NCAA Hardwoods, and as I will do annually around this time, there is an aid in both shortening the Saturday boards in terms of predicting the games, but also in evaluating them in the aftermath. In doing so there is a debt that I owe to someone that I will likely never be able to track down to pay, who introduced me to the simplest of common sense.

    As I note here on occasion, these days I shorten my NCAA handicapping across the board anyway, preferring to know a lot about a few teams rather than a little about many, and in particular focusing on the conferences with television packages, so that I can get to better know the teams beyond mere statistics. Yes, it means that I am handicapping the teams that get the most focus, and hence the sharper lines, but over time the prices for the smaller leagues have also gotten sharper, a combination of technology and elbow grease in the marketplace. As for today, there is a warning for those of you that still spend a lot of time charting those lesser leagues when it comes to Saturdays.

    Back in the mid 1990’s I was helping fill Mark Cuban’s pockets to the point at which he could buy the Dallas Mavericks, listening to a lot of college games via subscription over the Internet (he has never personally thanked me). It was in the process of tuning in after backing Jerry Wainwright and UNC-Wilmington one Saturday, that a broadcaster for James Madison University made a statement that resonated loudly, and has been remembered since, as he complained about what he thought were some bad calls against the Dukes (in truth, part of why I bet Wainwright often then is that his teams played physical defense, which actually lends itself to the story) –

    “It’s another typical Saturday in the Colonial, all of the good officials are somewhere else…”



    For all of the various notions that I had tried to bring to the handicapping processes through the years, I was gob-smacked by that one, and felt like a dullard because I had not thought about it previously. But he made a great point.

    The NCAA conferences are staggered over the weeknights, so much so that is isn’t difficult for the various small conferences that are on the betting boards to find competent officiating crews. But what happens on Saturday, when there is a full slate of game? That talent pool gets drained rather quickly. I started looking at the results from the lower leagues more carefully after that insightful one-liner from the JMU announcer, and found that there was indeed more randomness in the Saturday results from smaller leagues, along with a bit more of a home bias (though the latter wasn’t enough to exploit by itself).

    I also learned why Wainwright had been such a meal ticket – his teams were allowed to get out and maul the opposition a bit more in Saturday home games. I wouldn’t be surprised if he knew that, and took added advantage.

    At the time I learned to only bet the Saturday games from the smaller leagues when I knew I really had an edge, and was also careful in the grading of results the next day, especially when there were major free throw discrepancies. Now I don’t look at about half of the lined leagues anyway (counting the Added Board teams to that list), but for those that do, this little lesson just may be of some use somewhere.


    About Last Night, and the I.T. Pool I Should Have Started

    It was another absolutely abysmal performance by the Cleveland defense, which has allowed 127, 127 and 133 on this road trip despite Minnesota and Toronto backing off in the latter stages of the last two (the Raptors starters only played 109:03 of 240 floor minutes), and I realize now that I blew an opportunity by not setting up a Point Blank Readers Contest, which I will be doing for the upcoming MLB season. How could I have missed “How Many Minutes Will Isaiah Thomas Play Before He Gets His First Steal?”

    As noted often in past editions at the old previous platform, Thomas has graded by some tracking measures as the worst defensive player in the NBA of those that play starter’s minutes, and one of the indictments is that for someone with his quickness, his inability to get into the passing lanes and come up with steals is inexcusable. I noted earlier in the week that in the ugly road loss to the Timberwolves the entire Cleveland defense did not have one, and last night there were only three, two from Jae Crowder and one from LeBron James.

    While I was remiss at not starting a pool, I will at least begin a tracker:

    Isaiah Thomas floor minutes without a steal: 83:43





    For your listening pleasure…

    Matt Landes and I are back for a dive across all four of the NFL playoff games, plus another edition to the Beer of the Week files, one that you can read about below…






    And for your drinking pleasure…

    I am already reading media reports that a lot of folks aren’t all that excited about attending this year’s Super Bowl, because their golf clubs won’t be of much use in the Twin Cities in early February. But if you are going, and are looking for things to do, a little drive to the south can bring some lovely refreshments. As always, if you want to follow Matt along as he searches the heights of hops, you can go to Just Here for the Beer.

    Brewery: Toppling Goliath
    Beer: HOPSMACK!
    Style: Double IPA
    ABV: 8%

    With two wild card teams still standing after outright wins last weekend as substantial underdogs, "toppling Goliath" has a chance to emerge as a preeminent theme of this year's NFL playoffs. Whether or not significant upsets continue in the Divisional Round, HOPSMACK! Double IPA by Toppling Goliath is a worthy viewing companion.

    HOPSMACK! pours a hazy pale gold with a frothy white head and gives initial notes of pineapple and tropical fruit, with a burst of classic hop bitterness on the finish. The mouthfeel is spot-on for the style: a medium body, moderate carbonation, and a smooth, dry finish. Whether you prefer new-age New England-style "juicy" flavors or old-school West Coast bitterness, HOPSMACK! delivers with enticing complexity and balance.

    Inline image 1


    Toppling Goliath may be more or less in the middle of nowhere in Decorah, Iowa, but any fans traveling to the Super Bowl are in luck - a little due diligence after recording House of Yards reveals that Toppling Goliath is distributed throughout much of the Midwest and Florida, making its beer a prohibitive favorite to be readily available to those visiting Minneapolis-Saint Paul the first week in February. And for those Super Bowl spectators willing to go the extra mile, a road trip down to Decorah to experience Toppling Goliath firsthand and fresh from the source promises to prove worthwhile.

    Rating: 4.5 out of 5


    If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as in unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 01-12-18 at 08:10 AM.

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  2. #2
    Point Blank
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    OK guys, as noted in the lead, this will be the full weekend edition, up through some Sunday evening discussion of the NFC and AFC championship lines as they first hit the board. I will be far from the communications grid through the day on Friday, and most Fridays until NCAA tournament time, but then business as usual across the Saturday dribbles. I will get to all Friday questions across the comments thread, but can't promise that I will be back at the desk for anything involving a Friday evening tipoff.

    For this of you that want a little extra reading to nibble on, you can go to Matt Landes and his playoff edition of "2-Minute Drill".

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  3. #3
    shakey12381
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    any reason not to back indiana and over today as markets betting cleveland and under

  4. #4
    Hman
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    Good stuff PB

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  5. #5
    BuckyOne
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    I got to see them at practice in Mankato. Bradford. Has a little better fast ball - the best thing about Keenum is accuracy and on time. Very few throw them open type of shots. The third guy from Pld Dominion was a faster runner

  6. #6
    bjs2025
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    Dave, any thoughts on Monmouth/Niagra today as Micah Seaborn was just ruled doubtful for Monmouth?

  7. #7
    peterose4hof
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    I too lined Mark Cuban's pockets purchasing more streaming from broadcast.com than I care to admit. At least some of that money has allowed Mark to handle Nowitzki's waning years with class and dignity.

  8. #8
    Matt Landes
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    Looks as if something prevented the HOPSMACK! image from displaying correctly in the column. Having trouble posting it here as well, as from what I gather the comments don't enable copying + pasting photos or uploading them directly (if anyone has a workaround, would appreciate a tip). Nevertheless, for those interested in the beer's appearance, here's a visual.

  9. #9
    firedawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Looks as if something prevented the HOPSMACK! image from displaying correctly in the column. Having trouble posting it here as well, as from what I gather the comments don't enable copying + pasting photos or uploading them directly (if anyone has a workaround, would appreciate a tip). Nevertheless, for those interested in the beer's appearance, here's a visual.
    Any relation to Brock??????

  10. #10
    pickNpray
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    Great stuff Dave. Thanks

  11. #11
    golfnutt67
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    Have a quick sec in between meeting, but I wanted to so say a big thanks to Sportshec and Dave for helping me out with my account.Ive had some strange things going on since we came over here and created a second account (the original was banned for some reason and they couldn't resolve it) I tried to reply to yesterdays tread and got the dreaded you've been banned message....I couldn't even get to the board to read post, and being exiled for the last day and half really made me realize how important this place is to me, and how much i enjoy all of your company and discourse.....Ive got a lot of thoughts on the games I will get to soon in the meantime its great to be back.......who knows maybe exile on main street makes the jute box soon lol thank you guys

  12. #12
    shivaseven
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    I've had a strong lean to the EAGLES this week especially as a +3 dog but unfortunately I'm starting to reach a point where it's paralysis through analysis. Gun to head I'd take the Eagles but just thought I'd offer up this as part of the handicapping process.

    Here's one that's interesting but doesn't do too much to clear the situation up. Games in the playoffs in which the favorite has fewer wins than the dog under the right conditions set in place some clear ATS-SUP trends. Whenever, I see this in the regular season, especially in the second half of the season, I'm assuming the linesmaker is trying to tell me something. Well the Falcons are favored but have fewer wins than the Eagles. What happens in this situation in the playoffs? Now it gets a bit tricky because the demarcation point for this becoming a great bet is the number 3.0. As you can see below, teams in this spot that are favored by 3.0 or more are a great bet, not so much if the line is below 3.0. Even more maddening, the Falcons might end up as 3.0 point favorites in some databases and under 3.0 in others. There are a lot of subtle points being bandied about that point at the Eagles but sometimes it pays off not to ignore the big picture and listen to what the market is telling you.


    playoffs=1 and o:wins-wins>0 and F

    SUP: 19-6-0 (7.16)
    ATS: 15-10-0 (2.96)

    playoffs=1 and o:wins-wins>0 and line<=-3

    SUP: 17-3-0 (9.55)
    ATS: 14-6-0 (4.85)

    playoffs=1 and o:wins-wins>0 and F and line>-3

    SUP: 2-3 (-2.40)
    ATS: 1-4 (-4.60)

    For me the logic is teams favored by 3 or more in this spot are clearly the better team and the better play. Teams that are lined at less than 3 in this spot indicate the markets' uncertainty about the relative strengths of the teams and the handicapping spot.

  13. #13
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by firedawg View Post
    Any relation to Brock??????
    Can't say I know who that is, so "No" would be the prohibitive favorite.

  14. #14
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven View Post
    I've had a strong lean to the EAGLES this week especially as a +3 dog but unfortunately I'm starting to reach a point where it's paralysis through analysis. Gun to head I'd take the Eagles but just thought I'd offer up this as part of the handicapping process.

    Here's one that's interesting but doesn't do too much to clear the situation up. Games in the playoffs in which the favorite has fewer wins than the dog under the right conditions set in place some clear ATS-SUP trends. Whenever, I see this in the regular season, especially in the second half of the season, I'm assuming the linesmaker is trying to tell me something. Well the Falcons are favored but have fewer wins than the Eagles. What happens in this situation in the playoffs? Now it gets a bit tricky because the demarcation point for this becoming a great bet is the number 3.0. As you can see below, teams in this spot that are favored by 3.0 or more are a great bet, not so much if the line is below 3.0. Even more maddening, the Falcons might end up as 3.0 point favorites in some databases and under 3.0 in others. There are a lot of subtle points being bandied about that point at the Eagles but sometimes it pays off not to ignore the big picture and listen to what the market is telling you.


    playoffs=1 and o:wins-wins>0 and F

    SUP: 19-6-0 (7.16)
    ATS: 15-10-0 (2.96)

    playoffs=1 and o:wins-wins>0 and line<=-3

    SUP: 17-3-0 (9.55)
    ATS: 14-6-0 (4.85)

    playoffs=1 and o:wins-wins>0 and F and line>-3

    SUP: 2-3 (-2.40)
    ATS: 1-4 (-4.60)

    For me the logic is teams favored by 3 or more in this spot are clearly the better team and the better play. Teams that are lined at less than 3 in this spot indicate the markets' uncertainty about the relative strengths of the teams and the handicapping spot.
    Interesting food for thought - I always appreciate the database pulls you provide, but would caution against reading too much into this one for a couple reasons:

    1) The Eagles won more games than the Falcons because of Carson Wentz. If Nick Foles is the Eagles' starter all season, or if Wentz doesn't get injured, this trend doesn't apply to this game.

    2) If there's any underlying logic in a line of 3 being key to this trend (beyond the normal importance of 3 as a key number), that also might not favor the Falcons too strongly if we go off the closing number, as the reduced vig has become increasingly extreme for the -3 and we could see plenty of 2.5s in the waning moments prior to kickoff.

  15. #15
    shivaseven
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    Matt:

    Thanks for the information and nice points about Wentz. Have a great weekend and stay frosty!

  16. #16
    shivaseven
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    Any opinions, I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on this MM prop:


    MARIOTA OVER 28.5 RY

    Mariota's rushing statistics 2017:

    60-312 5.2 5

    NEG against mobile QBs

    KCY AS 5-3
    HOU DW 8-41
    CAR CN 8-44
    BUF TT 7-68
    BUF TT 3-16

    Tennessee isn't know for their dangerous wideouts and NEG (6th) will do a better job than KCY (31st) covering TEs (Delanie Walker) so we might have a situation where MM will have to tuck it in and take off with the ball, especially if Tennessee is playing from behind in bad-weather and has to put the ball up a lot. Last week he ran for 46 yards on 8 carries I could see much the same here as TEN offensive weapons are limited. Opinions?

  17. #17
    heywally
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    Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven View Post
    Any opinions, I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on this MM prop:


    MARIOTA OVER 28.5 RY

    Mariota's rushing statistics 2017:

    60-312 5.2 5

    NEG against mobile QBs

    KCY AS 5-3
    HOU DW 8-41
    CAR CN 8-44
    BUF TT 7-68
    BUF TT 3-16

    Tennessee isn't know for their dangerous wideouts and NEG (6th) will do a better job than KCY (31st) covering TEs (Delanie Walker) so we might have a situation where MM will have to tuck it in and take off with the ball, especially if Tennessee is playing from behind in bad-weather and has to put the ball up a lot. Last week he ran for 46 yards on 8 carries I could see much the same here as TEN offensive weapons are limited. Opinions?
    I kind of like that. Tenn. knows that they aren't going to be winning this game with the status quo.

  18. #18
    golfnutt67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Looks as if something prevented the HOPSMACK! image from displaying correctly in the column. Having trouble posting it here as well, as from what I gather the comments don't enable copying + pasting photos or uploading them directly (if anyone has a workaround, would appreciate a tip). Nevertheless, for those interested in the beer's appearance, here's a visual.
    Matt i used the insert image icon from the toolbar and pointed it at the url for a misc image from google...the only potential issue i saw was in sizing this was a small one there might be a way to resize it not sure if this helps but thought i would pass it along....Looks like you need to have one of the following extions to use this feature. Filetypes: jpg, jpeg, png, gif

    i tried to to the same thing with your link but its a different extension so it wouldn't work. If you have the pic as a jpeg on your computer i bet going that route would work
    Last edited by golfnutt67; 01-12-18 at 06:36 PM.

  19. #19
    shivaseven
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    Quote Originally Posted by heywally View Post
    I kind of like that. Tenn. knows that they aren't going to be winning this game with the status quo.
    Wally, thanks for the feedback and have a great weekend.

  20. #20
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Looks as if something prevented the HOPSMACK! image from displaying correctly in the column. Having trouble posting it here as well, as from what I gather the comments don't enable copying + pasting photos or uploading them directly (if anyone has a workaround, would appreciate a tip). Nevertheless, for those interested in the beer's appearance, here's a visual.
    Quote Originally Posted by golfnutt67 View Post
    Matt i used the insert image icon from the toolbar and pointed it at the url for a misc image from google...the only potential issue i saw was in sizing this was a small one there might be a way to resize it not sure if this helps but thought i would pass it along....Looks like you need to have one of the following extions to use this feature. Filetypes: jpg, jpeg, png, gif

    i tried to to the same thing with your link but its a different extension so it wouldn't work. If you have the pic as a jpeg on your computer i bet going that route would work
    Much appreciated. I didn't find the image via Google so tracking down the URL was a bit more manual, but this should do the trick (apologies if the extra large photo for those viewing on a desktop leads to extra temptation...Toppling Goliath just made a surprise drop in Southern California with its world-class pale ale, PseudoSue, so there's a chance it's also available in other areas of the country for those outside of TG's usual Midwest/Florida footprint):

    Last edited by Matt Landes; 01-12-18 at 07:24 PM.

  21. #21
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven View Post
    Any opinions, I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on this MM prop:


    MARIOTA OVER 28.5 RY

    Mariota's rushing statistics 2017:

    60-312 5.2 5

    NEG against mobile QBs

    KCY AS 5-3
    HOU DW 8-41
    CAR CN 8-44
    BUF TT 7-68
    BUF TT 3-16

    Tennessee isn't know for their dangerous wideouts and NEG (6th) will do a better job than KCY (31st) covering TEs (Delanie Walker) so we might have a situation where MM will have to tuck it in and take off with the ball, especially if Tennessee is playing from behind in bad-weather and has to put the ball up a lot. Last week he ran for 46 yards on 8 carries I could see much the same here as TEN offensive weapons are limited. Opinions?
    Let's start the catch-up rounds here - This was a discussion point in House of Yards this week, and I will have some Mariota rushing Over in pocket. I have zero insight as to the Tennessee game plans from any research or digging, but there is a common football sense that tells me that it is one of the best ways to attack the New England defense is to keep them off balance, in particular challenging them overland. So I am making assumptions when I make the wager, but that is what we have to do much of the time anyway.

    There is a risk involved in running the prize QB during the regular season, and it is easy to understand that hesitancy. But when you are two wins away from the Super Bowl, that becomes a lesser concern. It is mercenary football at this stage.

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  22. #22
    Point Blank
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    And time for some Saturday "Dribbling for Dollar$"...

    In the Sights, Saturday NCAA Hoops…

    Instead of literally having to flip a coin about which game to feature for Saturday, let’s get a pair into the discussion because the talking points bring a lot of handicapping value. So on a big day in the Big 12, it will be #551 West Virginia (2:00 Eastern) and #604 Oklahoma State (5:00 Eastern) going into pocket.

    While there are a myriad of detailed approaches that are in the NCAA hoops handicapping library, I could leave WVU at a “Keep it simple, stupid” plateau off of the style matchup. These are two mirror-image teams that will press all over the floor, and each of their meetings went into overtime LY. Taking +4.5 off of those outcomes would make some sense by itself, but there is more.

    The Mountaineers are the epitome of my “Tough Out” definition, a veteran team that plays hard and will not back down in any environment, which plenty of end-game toughness. They are already 2-0 SU and ATS on the Big 12 road, and note how special they were in 2017, a 5-4 SU in which two of the losses were in OT, and only one was bigger than this spread. And Javon Carter and others were a part of a team that went 6-3 SU on the conference road two seasons ago. They will take the court believing they can win.

    They will also take the court for the first time this season with Esa Ahmed, and I don’t believe the markets are giving the proper appreciation. How much does the 6-8/230 junior add? From Bob Huggins: “He’s the best rebounding small forward in our league. It’s not even close.” And from guard Daxter Miles – “He’s got that killer instinct to his game that we need.”





    Meanwhile there is a unique setting in Stillwater to understand the psychological & emotional aspects of sport. The Texas 99-98 double-OT win over TCU on Wednesday, a day after the news broke that floor leader Andrew Jones had leukemia, was simply a special evening. Shaka Smart was basically down to six players in his prime rotation, but he got 49 minutes out of Matt Coleman, 41 from Eric Davis Hr. and Jericho Sims, and patched through the rest (including nine minutes from Jacob Young as Player #7).

    But off of such an effort can also come a crash. Four of those prime players are freshmen, which is a major challenge on the road at any time, but a particularly daunting one off of Wednesday, and there is also the basketball issue of a team lacking Jones and Kerwin Roach having a real problem running offense against a pressure defense. The Longhorns have plenty of size inside, but the back-court lacks shooters – they are #337 in the nation in 3-point% even with the 19-41 of Jones built in, and #320 in FT% even with his 73.3%.

    Oklahoma State brings the proper basketball tools to take advantage – the Cowboys have a deep rotation in which no individual player is going a full 28 minutes, they will knock down their free throws in a close game (78.3%, #8 in the nation), and in fifth-year guys Jeffrey Carroll (red-shirt senior) and Kendall Smith (graduate transfer) there is the late-game experience and savvy that the Longhorns lack. At -2 the markets are only asking the Cowboys to gut out a close win in order to cash a ticket, and this matchup lays out well for that.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 01-13-18 at 08:19 AM.

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  23. #23
    jjgold
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    I quietly pick up some cash in this thread with all the tremendous info

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  24. #24
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by golfnutt67 View Post
    Have a quick sec in between meeting, but I wanted to so say a big thanks to Sportshec and Dave for helping me out with my account.Ive had some strange things going on since we came over here and created a second account (the original was banned for some reason and they couldn't resolve it) I tried to reply to yesterdays tread and got the dreaded you've been banned message....I couldn't even get to the board to read post, and being exiled for the last day and half really made me realize how important this place is to me, and how much i enjoy all of your company and discourse.....Ive got a lot of thoughts on the games I will get to soon in the meantime its great to be back.......who knows maybe exile on main street makes the jute box soon lol thank you guys
    The Rolling Stones don't make the jukebox nearly enough, largely because there aren't enough extended plays out there, even in concert the band staying pretty tight inside of their songs. But there are versions of "Tumbling Dice" from Exile just waiting for the appropriate setting...

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  25. #25
    Stephen Murrin
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    Morning David any value today with Villanova with Lovett being out for St John's thanks your thoughts

  26. #26
    benjy21
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    Hey Dave,

    Going back to a discussion earlier in the week regarding Missouri, today they visit Arkansas which could be trouble for the Tigers and their lack of an experienced point guard. With the market at Arkansas -4.5, do you see value on the Razorbacks being able to exploit the Missou weakness?

  27. #27
    Stephen Murrin
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    NC today looks very enticing with Colson and Farrell being out today you average 21.4 and 15.9 your thoughts thanks

  28. #28
    spindoc932
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    I have stumbled on to what I think is a great prop bet for today
    Under Foles 32.5 pass attempts

    I like this bet a lot more than under 214 yards....I think it would be in the Eagles interest to start slow and develop the run. They have 4 RB (Blount,ajayi,clement, barber).... the reason I donít like under yards is bc the eagles have been hitting long passes all year off the play action so if the eagles are going to get yards , it will be on the ground, and on long passes downfield...

    If the eagles get a lead, I think the eagles will be using clock with the run.... however, this is where the bet gets interesting... if Foles struggles, I think the boo birds will be out and I think thereís a chance he gets pulled if heís 3 for 9 with 2 ints

    Is anyone with me here? Iím def betting this

  29. #29
    Keepongaming
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    Testing. I was also banned a couple months ago. Been following but haven't been able to log in. Following Golfnutt's lead, I tried creating a new account. Hope to be back in the fold.

  30. #30
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephen Murrin View Post
    Morning David any value today with Villanova with Lovett being out for St John's thanks your thoughts
    Finding good value is going to be difficult the rest of the season with Villanova, but tonight might at least lay out as "fair value" for those that want to plunge. I think the markets give St. John's more Home Court than is called for in this setting, this being not much more than a neutral given how much experience the Wildcats get in Madison Square Garden, and a good example would be the KenPom projection of Villy -12. The RedStorm have been making a lot happen through a pressure defense that generates a lot of their points, otherwise the team being bricklayers (#277 in EFG%), and the Wildcats don't get rattled much by pressure, #3 in the nation in TO%.

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  31. #31
    Keepongaming
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    Matt, if I'm not mistaken, you haven't come to Oregon for a single beer this year. How can you ignore the (admittedly arguably) epicenter of the craft brewing world? You've got two more weeks!

  32. #32
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephen Murrin View Post
    NC today looks very enticing with Colson and Farrell being out today you average 21.4 and 15.9 your thoughts thanks
    That one came up late in the the Thursday thread as to what the projection would be, and this line is right about where my numbers put it, albeit a tentative grade because it is not easy to factor in the full weight on those injuries. But this is a good example of markets adjusted from the base - the KenPom would actually be Notre Dame -2, which showcases how much adjustments there has been.

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  33. #33
    puffkit
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    @BM brady o2 td passes -135..... think this at worst a push

    Another prop i like i've taken is minn murray to score td -125.... scored in last 4 home games

  34. #34
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy21 View Post
    Hey Dave,

    Going back to a discussion earlier in the week regarding Missouri, today they visit Arkansas which could be trouble for the Tigers and their lack of an experienced point guard. With the market at Arkansas -4.5, do you see value on the Razorbacks being able to exploit the Missou weakness?
    There is a degree of logic in bucking a Missouri team on the road that is short-handed at PG - the Tigers beat Georgia on Wednesday with defense and rebounding, but still only managed 10 assists. But I am struggling to understand Arkansas both in general this season, and in particular that no-show vs. LSU. For all of those notions of pressing opponents to disrupt it just isn't happening for Mike Anderson's defense, which is #151 in TO% forced and #175 in Steal%.

    Anderson's take after the LSU loss was "All sickness ain't death. We'll get better from this. Trust me on that." The question is how much to trust? I will have some Arkansas in pocket, but only a small amount because there is a fear of something being wrong that I have not been able to find.

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  35. #35
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by spindoc932 View Post
    I have stumbled on to what I think is a great prop bet for today
    Under Foles 32.5 pass attempts

    I like this bet a lot more than under 214 yards....I think it would be in the Eagles interest to start slow and develop the run. They have 4 RB (Blount,ajayi,clement, barber).... the reason I don’t like under yards is bc the eagles have been hitting long passes all year off the play action so if the eagles are going to get yards , it will be on the ground, and on long passes downfield...

    If the eagles get a lead, I think the eagles will be using clock with the run.... however, this is where the bet gets interesting... if Foles struggles, I think the boo birds will be out and I think there’s a chance he gets pulled if he’s 3 for 9 with 2 ints

    Is anyone with me here? I’m def betting this
    I think it makes a lot of sense given that the expected Atlanta tempo will also help to keep the play counts down. If this turns into a tense close game, which I believe it will be, that favors the cause, and with most of the game being played with the temperature below freezing, and wind forecasts in the 12-18 mph range, that also inhibits notions of putting the ball in the air any more than is absolutely necessary.

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