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    Point Blank
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    PB (11/13): What a "Bettor Better Know" - NCAA Week #11



    What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA Week #11...The playoff field narrows, the Life of Riley will soon be over in Lincoln, and Scottie Montgomery will at least go out blazing...


    Point Blank – November 13, 2017

    Saturday came awfully close to shaking up the college football landscape in a way that we had not seen before, especially as Mississippi State held a legitimate lead in the second half vs. Alabama, the Bulldogs playing well enough to make a viewer believe that the upset was possible for a while.

    What does it mean for the handicapper as that dust settles out? That is where we will start this week, especially for those looking to take some early leads, and we will also get into the usual art/science of sorting through results, in particular TCU/Oklahoma, because we might see those two hooked up again in a couple of weeks.

    That means another long read ahead, and some background needed to help you sort through, so the jukebox is plugged in. I may have to dedicate a season of Mondays to Widespread Panic in the future, perhaps one of just their covers alone, those extended jams ideal for the reading length of most of these missives. They just played a three-night gig here in Las Vegas at the Park Theatre, two weeks ago, including this take on Traffic’s “The Low Spark of High Heeled Boys” -



    Now time to get to work…

    Item: Before the Committee meets

    OK, so you are chomping at the bit to take a lead on teams that are ready to go out there and improve their positioning over the final two regular-season weeks, and get ahead of the marketplace. Better to catch your breath from the weekend results, because as things lay out there isn’t much to do.

    The assumption is that the top four will be Alabama, Clemson, Miami and Oklahoma, with Wisconsin peeking around the corner, and the Auburn/Georgia duo still alive from the SEC. But for each of those seven teams the path is pretty clear – win the rest of games by any margin, and it will almost assuredly be enough (yes, Auburn sweeping out would be enough to get a two-loss team into the field).

    There is only one “wild card” scenario that might be in play – should either Auburn or Georgia beat Alabama, would the Crimson Tide remain ahead of an unbeaten Wisconsin team? It is a legit question, but not one that either Nick Saban or Paul Chryst can have much say in via style points this week – an extra touchdown or two from the Crimson Tider vs. Mercer isn’t going to make a difference, Saban more likely to hold back and keep his starters fresh for the Auburn/Georgia sequence his team will have to get through (especially with those defensive injuries that helped keep things close in Starkville). And there isn’t likely to be much opportunity for Chryst to pad anything vs. Michigan, a game in which his Badgers will have to work hard enough to merely get the win.

    There is one irony in play, the Big 12 going to a championship game this season to help the winner improve their chances of being in the playoffs, yet as it turned out the game may be a hindrance – if Oklahoma wins the next two weeks to Sooners would have locked a playoff spot up in the past, but now may have to get through a return match vs. TCU or Oklahoma State. And if it is to be against Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs, who they rolled 38-20 in Norman on Saturday night, we have some interesting sorting to do…

    Item: Is there something to learn from the TCU/Oklahoma second half
    Sub-Item: Why answers can be so difficult to find

    The Sooners threw a haymaker in the early stages against the Horned Frogs, rolling out to a 38-14 halftime advantage, touchdowns being scored on drives of 79, 80, 69, 75 and 87 yards. By intermission Baker Mayfield had already thrown for 299 yards. Oklahoma was so dominant that I did not watch much of the second half, that time of the Saturday evening board having so many other games available to switch to, so it was relegated to the occasional look-in, and not on one of my monitors.

    Hence the difficulty now in making sense of the second half, which TCU won 6-0. The natural assumption is to believe that Lincoln Riley had the Sooners shift to a lower gear and just grind, but it isn’t that cut and dried. As such let’s do two things today as we run deeper than usual on one game, first getting to the heart of the matter in terms of understanding the particulars should a rematch be on the way, and also the difficulties inherent at getting to football truths that don’t easily define themselves.

    While just about every Power Five game is televised these days, it isn’t possible to watch all of them closely enough for proper grading – I limit myself to three screens most days, and will occasionally go to a fourth. The key is that play-by-play recaps are available to help sort through what wasn’t see, and are generally a good way to do the sorting. Except in this instance. Was it really Oklahoma backing off, or was it TCU making some adjustments? It isn’t an easy read.




    The difficulty comes down to wording. I will isolate two different places from which an easy read-through can be done, the NCAA site, and the Gamebook from Oklahoma University. Where is the issue? The word “scrambling”, which is what the NCAA uses for when a QB breaks the pocket on a passing play to run for positive yards, but other sources only track as a straight running play. As you will see in this game, that wording is crucial to getting the proper understanding. Let’s go to that Oklahoma offense in the second half.

    First Drive: The Sooners ran for five yards on first down, then the NCAA tracks Mayfield as scrambling for four on second, so OU running on third-and-one was a natural football strategy, not a clocking. But Trey Sermon was stopped for no gain. If the second down play was indeed a pass, with Mayfield having to leave the pocket, this was a win for the TCU defense, and not based on OU being conservative.

    Second Drive: The Sooners started pinned at their own one-yard line. Eight plays got them to a third-and-one at midfield, where this time it was Rodney Anderson that was stopped for no gain. Mayfield threw three passes, and is charted with one designed run, plus two scrambles. While OU did pile up a couple of first downs, this also grades more as a win for the TCU defense, if those scrambles were indeed pass plays.

    Third Drive: The Sooners started at their own 35, and after six plays faced a fourth-and-four at the TCU 31. They went for it, and a Mayfield pass was incomplete. There were two passes on the drive. Once again this grades more as a defensive win by the Horned Frogs than Oklahoma just working the clock.

    Fourth Drive: Sooners started at their own 18 following a TCU touchdown that cut the margin to 38-20. It was a 3-and-out, Anderson running for two yards on first down, then a Mayfield incompletion and a sack. This grades as a clear defensive win.

    Fifth Drive: Sooners started at their 15 with 8:00 to play, and ran Anderson seven times, taking the clock down to 2:55 before punting.

    Now you see the conundrum. An easy answer for tracking the second half would be to credit Oklahoma with merely managing the clock instead of attacking, but that might not be the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. And yes, even if the Sooners were still wanting to throw and keep building their margin, they would have been doing it with a lesser intensity because of the big lead. But might there have been some genuine adjustments made by Patterson and his staff at halftime?

    There is some deeper digging to do before assigning the final grade to this one, much like what needs to be done for the proper read on another game that might not get more than a second glance from most folks…

    Item: On grading UL-Lafayette/Mississippi
    Sub-Item: Sometimes you just get bagged

    The Friday edition of PB focused in on how discussions of fatigue ratings could be put into play against a team in an unusual role, a worn down Mississippi defense being favored by nearly three full touchdowns. In that instance the concept led to a losing ticket, but it also creates a handicapping challenge going forward – just how do we grade both the Rebels, and UL-Lafayette, from that outcome? And it also serves to show that even those of us that stay on the info wires as much as possible can simply get bagged on a situation.

    Here’s the gist – on Saturday morning ULL coach Mark Hudspeth announced that four starters were suspended, leading rusher Trey Ragas and OL Robert Hunt on offense, and LB Joe Dillon and DB Damar’ren Mitchell on defense. It led to a quick line surge to Ole Miss once the info got out, which meant that for those that already had a ticket there wasn’t any way to lessen the investment without being exposed to the point at which both bets could be lost.

    Naturally those suspensions make grading the outcome tougher, but then add this: the Cajuns were also without starting TE Chase Rogers, who was injured in practice on Thursday and did not make the trip; they lost a starting LB to a targeting suspension on the second series of the game; and not only was starting QB Levi Lewis injured but so was previous starter Jordan Davis, which meant that redshirt freshman Jake Arceneaux, seeing his first career action, had to run the offense to finish the game.

    Despite all that, the Mississippi defense allowed 427 yards, including 228 on the ground at 7.0 per rush, and did not force a turnover. It was the fifth time in seven games the Rebels did not come up with a takeaway, and the third time in that span the opposition averaged at least 7.0 per carry. Given the circumstances, that was a really poor showing by the defense. And I am going to be quick to get back in play because…

    Item: Texas A&M 55 New Mexico 14 isn’t a proper score to use for grading purposes

    It wasn’t so much that Kevin Sumlin’s Aggies were brilliant on Saturday; New Mexico once again not putting up much fight on the road contributed. But before you file away 55-14 as the final score by hitting the save command, note that it was 48-0 A&M late in the second quarter, and Sumlin was a gentleman not only in terms of not embarrassing the opponent, but also in keeping his team fresh for two more SEC games ahead, games that he may need to sweep to keep his job. One can only wonder what the final score would have been had the Aggies played it out a bit more.

    Here is what also matters. Remember back to when A&M was running away from UCLA in the Rose Bowl in the opener, the offense clicking early under the direction of red-shirt freshmen QB Nick Starkel, until Starkel was broke his ankle late in the second quarter and the entire game turned? Starkel did not play again until three weeks ago, and last week had a decent outing off the bench vs. Auburn, going 11-22 for 184 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions. Against that defense that is pretty good.

    Starkel was finally back in the starting lineup vs. New Mexico, and put up an electric line of 21-30 for 416 yards and four touchdowns, despite not taking a snap in the second half. Yes, the Lobos were out-manned, but from a confidence standpoint I believe that was huge not only for Starkel, but perhaps the entire Aggie team. That goes all the way up to Sumlin – can he convince the powers that be that Starkel is the QB he can build a future around? He won’t be able to do it with words, the team will have to show that upside on the field.



    I will be in play with #413 Texas A&M (Saturday, 7 PM Eastern), a deeper and fresher team that I believe can control the line of scrimmage, especially on offense against that depth-shy Mississippi defense front. And I will be doing the reading between the lines on the Sumlin job status – with Florida, Mississippi and Tennessee already in coaching searches from the SEC, and prospects of Arkansas and Vanderbilt joining the list as well, might he have a better chance to secure one more year because there will be such a shuffle out there, A&M having to compete with other league schools for the list of contenders?

    Item: That Wake Forest/Syracuse Second Half (yes it is time to discuss Dave Clawson again)

    The job Dave Clawson is doing in turning around the Demon Deacons is becoming a weekly feature, but deservedly so as the results come in. This week they deserve another focus because it also attaches to something valuable in tracking other teams around the country this time of the season – we look for those that are still working and adjusting, trying to get better to the final whistle, because there may often be subtle signals much of the marketplace does not see.

    Last Monday the focus went to how Clawson kept his team going hard for the full 60 minutes despite being out-manned at Notre Dame, the last three Deacon drives being touchdown marches of 75, 70 and 90 yards. Those weren’t just meaningless cores, but rather a coach taking advantage of teaching moments, and I believe that was significant in the remarkable second half that unfolded at Syracuse on Saturday.

    The Orange led 38-24 at halftime, having rolled to 425 yards, and on top of 710 that Notre Dame piled up the previous week, it look like a worn-out Wake defense that had little left in the tank. Yet the second half was a complete domination, 40-5 on the scoreboard (it would have been 41-3 if not for a blocked PAT that was returned for two points), the offense scoring at will after intermission for the second straight week, and the defense making significant adjustments.



    If you can get a defense that was battered around for 38 points and 425 yards in the first half to pay attention at halftime, you are doing good coaching. And consider that a Demon Deacon offense that shattered the school record for total yards with 734, 102 more than the previous high, was a patched-up group as well. Wake uses a three-RB rotation, but Akeem Byrd and Cade Carney were not available. That put a major load on Matt Coburn, who only had 92 carries through the first nine games, but Coburn exploded for 237 yards on 31 attempts. And while key WR Greg Dortch being sidelined has already been a topic here there were also players stepping up in the passing game – Tabari Hines had nine catches for 125 yards, after only having 22 all season coming in.

    That is what happens when a coach keeps working, and his players keep buying in. Minnesota 54 Nebraska 21 is what happens when they don’t.

    Item: Did Nebraska let go of the rope
    Sub-Item: And the 2018 HC probably won’t bring back Bob Diaco

    You wouldn’t find a bookmaker that would give you a price right now on Mike Riley being the Nebraska head coach in 2018, and whether he finishes out this season is an open question. Might that overtime loss to Northwestern a week ago in Lincoln have been the end of the road? It seemed to be, because the Cornhuskers brought shockingly little effort in Saturday’s beat-down at Minnesota.

    To set the perspective, the Golden Gophers were averaging 18.7 points and 151.2 rushing yard through their first six Big 10 games. Against the Nebraska defense it was 54 and 409, those latter yards coming at 9.1 per attempt. The Minnesota offense did not turn the ball over, and only punted once.



    While the focus goes to the HC when a change is imminent, that pressure falls all the way through the rest of the staff, most of them unlikely to return. If you want something good for the files in terms of understanding college football in general, as well as this game in particular, let’s go to first-year DC Bob Diaco, who was the HC at Connecticut last season, and wakes up this morning with no idea where he will be coaching next fall:

    “The whole day was just unacceptable. Spectacularly unacceptable. You have to give it its due, you have to give it its gravity and magnitude. But it can’t define who you are. I’ve been serving the game since I was a child and I’ve had very high moments, I’ve had extreme success. I’ve had average times, I’ve had below average times, and I’ve had terrible times and this would be one of those terrible, terrible moments.”

    Diaco’s defense never figured out the Minnesota option packages, and it showed. Meanwhile there was another defense that has defended the option well in the pat and did it again on Saturday, but if you only saw the score you wouldn’t know that.

    Item: Duke handled the option well again, though it didn’t translate to the scoreboard

    Back at the old platform in previous seasons I had made the work of the Duke defense, in particular the tactics of DC Jim Knowles, a feature topic because of a run of success vs. option attacks. David Cutcliffe decided that if he was going to have to go up against Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech every season he was going to devote time to building a defensive system for that game, while also trying to get either Army or Navy on the schedule before the GT game each season, to help prep even more.

    Cutcliffe went one better this season and helped design a schedule built around gearing up the option defense about as well as it could be done – a bye week, a game against Army, and then Georgia Tech. So what caused the Blue Devils to lose 21-16 at West Point on Saturday? It wasn’t the defense; that group actually accounted themselves well again.

    Army was held to season-lows in both rushing yards (227, compared to an average of 351.5), and yards per attempt (4.05, compared to 6.04 for the full season). At halftime Duke led 14-8 in first downs and 186-161 in total offense, yet trailed 21-10, one of the big keys being Army blocking a punt for a TD.

    The Blue Devils again defended option football well, it just didn’t translate to the scoreboard. Neither did what Jeff Brohm and Pat Fitzgerald attempted in terms of pushing the pace on Saturday night.


    Item: Purdue/Northwestern didn’t score much but they sure tried like hell

    It would be easy to file away Northwestern 23 Purdue 13 as one of those late-season grinders in the Midwest in which the conditions force the game to be played conservatively, a lot of bruising play in the trenches dominating the flow. This wasn’t that.

    The game was played at a blistering pace, with 183 total snaps, including 107 pass attempts. The offenses just couldn’t generate much out of it, a rather shocking 694 yards being all that those plays could produce.



    Here is why the tracking was so interesting – one of the lead topics last Monday was how much fatigue would impact Northwestern, off of an NCAA record three straight overtime games, and a total of five extra periods in all across them. Were the Wildcats going to be a worn-down team, or would the fact that they won each of those games be enough of a spark to get them to play with energy. Fitzgerald did not slow anything down at all, and had his team pushing the pace. But as has been the case for much of the season, the pace has not generated major offensive results because the playmakers aren’t there.

    And in terms of trying to make things happen out of limited pieces, the next example may be the closing stages of a short Scottie Montgomery era at East Carolina.

    Item: Scottie Montgomery is going out with all guns a-blazing (there just isn't much ammo)

    I was surprised when East Carolina fired Ruffin McNeill two years ago, after a 42-34 run with the Pirates. Of course McNeill might not be complaining too much, as assistant HC at Oklahoma he is still getting to coach at a high level, and might be in the playoffs in his first season with the Sooners. He was brought on board after Lincoln Riley took over the head job in Norman, Riley knowing him well because he had been the OC at East Carolina in the past.

    The Pirates had their reasons for not wanting McNeill around anymore, and it might have been because they felt there was a star in the making they could grab, Duke OC Scottie Montgomery. But it has now been a dismal 5-17 in two seasons under Montgomery, who has some creative offensive designs, but may not be ready to lead a program yet.

    I bring this up because there will be the usual rumors and speculation as the Pirates head into their last two games, and also because Montgomery seems determined to go out firing. Over the last two games he has had his offense throw 127 passes, with 51 of the 53 attempts vs. Tulane coming in regulation on Saturday, before EC fell in overtime.

    The problem, of course, is that there just isn’t anything all that special about QB Gardner Minshew, who only has a 123.4 passer rating. Those 127 attempts the last two weeks, 120 form Minshew, only generated 696 yards, an uninspiring 5.5 per pass, which is well below the NCAA average. Someone only looking at the total yardage picture from the last two games will see a portrait that causes confusion.


    If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as in unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-13-17 at 01:10 PM.

  2. #2
    1to1000
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    Nothing but trash in that article.

  3. #3
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1to1000 View Post
    Nothing but trash in that article.
    I thought the music was pretty good, but Widespread Panic might not be to everyone's tastes.

  4. #4
    sweep
    get on my level
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    cliff notes?? Whats the fukkin play Dave, enough with the horseshit

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  5. #5
    timd
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    You guys have to be kidding me right? This is the best site in the sports media period! There’s nothing better on tv or online than Point Blank in my opinion. First thing I read every morning.
    Last edited by timd; 11-13-17 at 01:11 PM.

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    ligastar
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    Please stop replying to the trolls. That's what they want and thrive on. Simply ignore them.

    Last edited by ligastar; 11-13-17 at 01:29 PM.

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    Champthinks
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    Ole miss game was already in my sights
    .based on the teams that are favored and having another game coming up in 4 or 5 days don't tend to .cover . Titans and Steelers backers likely over looked that factor Sunday .
    Ole Miss . plays instate rival in 5 days .
    I showed Ole Miss - 2 as the opener yesterday and held off hoping for the 3 .Woke up read the article and just knew no chance now for a +3 . Happy to report the market has been kinder than I expected the 2 is gone +3.5 in pocket .
    So I think Texas A.M. is the fukken play Dave was trying to advise
    .and I like them also for my 1 additional reason .

  8. #8
    jakedittler
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    Jeez. What is wrong with people? If it's trash, then don't read it. Goodbye and good riddance. And to the other guy, even if there wasn't a play, the insight is fantastic. But what part of "I'll be in play on #413 Texas A&M again this week" don't you get as "a fukkin play"? Good lord.

  9. #9
    Champthinks
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    Quote Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
    Please stop replying to the trolls. That's what they want and thrive on. Simply ignore them.


    All it takes for evil to triumph is for the good to remain silent

  10. #10
    1to1000
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    **** can best describe that article. What's this guy's record this year?
    Last edited by SBR Forum; 11-13-17 at 02:01 PM. Reason: keep it up above the belt

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    jakedittler
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    I agree in principal that we shouldn't typically react to trolls. But I also agree with champ. We are trying to build something here. Something that was already built on another platform. And it functioned at a high level that led to some good stuff. And if you first reaction to reading that column today was total shit, then you really don't belong here. I was really just floored seeing those first few comments. No need to stoop to their level. But I don't have a problem with saying "if that is your reaction, then clearly this isn't for you". And if that's the case, then one by one these people will go away. Hopefully.

  12. #12
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Champthinks View Post
    Ole miss game was already in my sights
    .based on the teams that are favored and having another game coming up in 4 or 5 days don't tend to .cover . Titans and Steelers backers likely over looked that factor Sunday .
    Ole Miss . plays instate rival in 5 days .
    I showed Ole Miss - 2 as the opener yesterday and held off hoping for the 3 .Woke up read the article and just knew no chance now for a +3 . Happy to report the market has been kinder than I expected the 2 is gone +3.5 in pocket .
    So I think Texas A.M. is the fukken play Dave was trying to advise
    .and I like them also for my 1 additional reason .
    Also keep in mind that because Ole Miss has banned themselves from a bowl this season, the look-ahead to Mississippi State means a little more than usual; that becomes the de facto bowl game for those players and coaches this season.

  13. #13
    1to1000
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    I got infraction by sbr for telling the truth about this article. What is point blanks record? If this information is so good it would translate into wins and big money. Again, what is point blanks record based on this info he gives out?

  14. #14
    goombah
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1to1000 View Post
    I got infraction by sbr for telling the truth about this article. What is point blanks record? If this information is so good it would translate into wins and big money. Again, what is point blanks record based on this info he gives out?
    Hi, I like to make friend's with trolls. My name is Goombah.

    A troll is a class of being in Norse mythology and Scandinavian folklore. In Old Norse sources, beings described as trolls dwell in isolated rocks, mountains, or caves, live together in small family units, and are rarely helpful to human beings.
    Later, in Scandinavian folklore, trolls became beings in their own right, where they live far from human habitation, are not Christianized, and are considered dangerous to human beings. Depending on the source, their appearance varies greatly; trolls may be ugly and slow-witted, or look and behave exactly like human beings, with no particularly grotesque characteristic about them.
    Trolls are sometimes associated with particular landmarks, which at times may be explained as formed from a troll exposed to sunlight. Trolls are depicted in a variety of media in modern popular culture. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll

  15. #15
    1to1000
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    Lol, the purpose of trolling is to expose the frauds. How hard is to be transparent on point blanks wins and losses? The amount of money he has won?.....Based on the lack of response it looks the article as well as the author are full of _________.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 1to1000 View Post
    Lol, the purpose of trolling is to expose the frauds. How hard is to be transparent on point blanks wins and losses? The amount of money he has won?.....Based on the lack of response it looks the article as well as the author are full of _________.
    Hi 1to1000,

    This isn't a pick tracking thread. Feel free to opine on points you agree or disagree with in a civil manner.

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  17. #17
    goombah
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    Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.

    Dave has taught many how to fish. If you're looking for a fish there are lots of pick sellers out there.

  18. #18
    1to1000
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    I get that but how many fish have you caught with his teaching?

  19. #19
    goombah
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    Last time I checked, I was able to move out of mommas basement, one day you will too. I have bought a house and drive a nice SUV. I did not buy a house from my wages, that's for sure.
    Last edited by goombah; 11-13-17 at 03:36 PM.

  20. #20
    1to1000
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    Do catch fish at a 60% rate, 55% rate or 40%? When you cast your net thru the season do you catch 20 units of fish or 50 units of fish...etc

  21. #21
    peterose4hof
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    Hi David,

    229 seems like an awful lot of points for a Lakers game; even if it is against the pace-happy Suns.

    Tyler Ulis is making only his 2nd start of the season at PG and his 1st start was pretty disastrous.

    Do you see value with this one?

    Also, just a note to NBA bettors out there, Steph Curry likely not to play tonight.

  22. #22
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterose4hof View Post
    Hi David,

    229 seems like an awful lot of points for a Lakers game; even if it is against the pace-happy Suns.

    Tyler Ulis is making only his 2nd start of the season at PG and his 1st start was pretty disastrous.

    Do you see value with this one?

    Also, just a note to NBA bettors out there, Steph Curry likely not to play tonight.
    I loaded up on dfs players in this one. Hoping the set total is accurate

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  23. #23
    jeffry
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1to1000 View Post
    Do catch fish at a 60% rate, 55% rate or 40%? When you cast your net thru the season do you catch 20 units of fish or 50 units of fish...etc
    I cannot help myself... you aren't a troll - the generous interpretation. You haven't got the wit to understand the limitations of your own knowledge and the vast expanse of your ignorance. In fact, your own thinking is hopelessly blurred and distorted, most likely brought on by unwarranted confidence in your own craft. I don't need to know anything about your personal skills to state that, because it would be a true statement regardless of what they are.

    but its ok...
    Mastering all the minutiae isn't for everyone.


  24. #24
    Lago
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    Wow is all I can say to some of the naysayers. I'm thrilled that the format has been updated to this open chronological style. I guess reading a thoughtful essay on the topic of sports betting just isn't for everybody. Keep up the good work.

  25. #25
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterose4hof View Post
    Hi David,

    229 seems like an awful lot of points for a Lakers game; even if it is against the pace-happy Suns.

    Tyler Ulis is making only his 2nd start of the season at PG and his 1st start was pretty disastrous.

    Do you see value with this one?

    Also, just a note to NBA bettors out there, Steph Curry likely not to play tonight.
    One of the things noted here last week before the Lakers got to Boston is how their defense has been so much better than the market expectations were, all the way up to #6 now in PP100 allowed, and it has been nothing but solid Under's on this road trip, by 11.5, 16.5 and 29 vs. the closing total. Yet in each of those games the closing total was higher than the opener, and that is the same again tonight, 227.5 to the 229.5 that is now showing. Pace is an issue, both teams pushing it pretty well, and the Suns are only at #29 on defense, and not last, because of Cleveland's ineptness, but I believe this setting is too high, especially since this is a game that two teams starved for a win have to believe they can get, which brings the potential to slow things down a bit.

  26. #26
    Eric Nisbet
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    Hola David, Long time reader & fan. Can't thank you enough for all of the valuable insight your articles provide in Point Blank. Two thums all the way up!!!! I read it religiosly & don't make any plays without reading it first & foremost. Take care David & God Bless......

  27. #27
    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeffry View Post
    I cannot help myself... you aren't a troll - the generous interpretation. You haven't got the wit to understand the limitations of your own knowledge and the vast expanse of your ignorance. In fact, your own thinking is hopelessly blurred and distorted, most likely brought on by unwarranted confidence in your own craft. I don't need to know anything about your personal skills to state that, because it would be a true statement regardless of what they are.

    but its ok...
    Mastering all the minutiae isn't for everyone.


    hello on behalf of all the SBR Staff, allow me to welcome you here Jeffry!

    We hope to see you posting more, and in the future can you please keep in mind one of our favorite sayings here at SBR?

    "Address the post, not the poster"

    Thanks and good luck to you, sir
    175 pts

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    Week 9
    3-2-0 185 pts


  28. #28
    Matt Landes
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    Since NFL 6-point teasers of 3+ teams came up earlier in the season I think it's appropriate to revisit the topic, given the startling number of crossers through 3 and 7 on the Week 11 board. For good measure, tonight's Week 10 finale fits as well, Carolina having been bet down to -8.5 vs. the Dolphins tonight.

    For those who dare, strictly based on model fits, we have viable options in:
    - Carloina -2.5 vs. Miami tonight
    - Green Bay +8.5 vs. Baltimore
    - New Orleans -1.5 vs. Washington
    - Jacksonville -1.5 at Cleveland
    - Rams +8.5 at Minnesota
    - Cincinnati +8.5 at Denver
    - And quite possibly Houston +7.5 or so vs. a Blaine Gabbert-led Cardinals offense when that line becomes more widely posted, as well as the possibility to Tampa Bay +8.5 at Miami depending on how the Dolphins fare tonight

    At a certain point I have to think the number of teams (thus variables) involved leads to diminishing returns, but to have this many legitimate candidates on the table at once is astonishing.

    I have a small 5-teamer in on Carolina, Green Bay, New Orleans, Jacksonville and the Rams, in addition to a 2-teamer on Jacksonville on the Rams, and am increasingly intrigued by a New Orleans/Jacksonville 2-teamer.

    Dave, this does ultimately leave me with a question for you - as exciting as this is, it would be easy to get carried away, and potentially put the bankroll in a very vulnerable position. One of my biggest takeaways from PB over the years is to trust edges to grind out a profit in the long time, and not to "unload" on any one bet or take a "get rich quick" approach, which can just as easily lead to a "go broke immediately" outcome. If you had teasers at your disposal, how would your approach be affected by a board like this, with seemingly strong options all over the place? Can't think bookmakers like it a whole lot right now, and want to take full advantage without pinning myself into a corner.
    Last edited by Matt Landes; 11-13-17 at 05:30 PM.

  29. #29
    ligastar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Champthinks View Post
    All it takes for evil to triumph is for the good to remain silent
    lol. that quote doesn't apply to an internet forum thread.

  30. #30
    peterose4hof
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    Hi Matt,

    Week 11 does indeed present a great teaser board. One rule I live by is to not have the same team in more than two teasers per week. For example, I love the Jags -1.5, but I would only bet two teasers with them and use some of the other options for additional teaser bets. Too many times I've had friends lose most if not all of their teasers by having that one key game go awry.

    Also, I really enjoy your weekly write-up. Keep up the good work!

  31. #31
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Since NFL 6-point teasers of 3+ teams came up earlier in the season I think it's appropriate to revisit the topic, given the startling number of crossers through 3 and 7 on the Week 11 board. For good measure, tonight's Week 10 finale fits as well, Carolina having been bet down to -8.5 vs. the Dolphins tonight.

    For those who dare, strictly based on model fits, we have viable options in:
    - Carloina -2.5 vs. Miami tonight
    - Green Bay +8.5 vs. Baltimore
    - New Orleans -1.5 vs. Washington
    - Jacksonville -1.5 at Cleveland
    - Rams +8.5 at Minnesota
    - Cincinnati +8.5 at Denver
    - And quite possibly Houston +7.5 or so vs. a Blaine Gabbert-led Cardinals offense when that line becomes more widely posted, as well as the possibility to Tampa Bay +8.5 at Miami depending on how the Dolphins fare tonight

    At a certain point I have to think the number of teams (thus variables) involved leads to diminishing returns, but to have this many legitimate candidates on the table at once is astonishing.

    I have a small 5-teamer in on Carolina, Green Bay, New Orleans, Jacksonville and the Rams, in addition to a 2-teamer on Jacksonville on the Rams, and am increasingly intrigued by a New Orleans/Jacksonville 2-teamer.

    Dave, this does ultimately leave me with a question for you - as exciting as this is, it would be easy to get carried away, and potentially put the bankroll in a very vulnerable position. One of my biggest takeaways from PB over the years is to trust edges to grind out a profit in the long time, and not to "unload" on any one bet or take a "get rich quick" approach, which can just as easily lead to a "go broke immediately" outcome. If you had teasers at your disposal, how would your approach be affected by a board like this, with seemingly strong options all over the place? Can't think bookmakers like it a whole lot right now, and want to take full advantage without pinning myself into a corner.
    I would play it this way, mostly to take advantage of a handicap that I have to the Panthers this evening. Instead of laying -8.5, which can now be found at even money, I would consider wheeling the Panthers into some teasers for the following week, because the options are plentiful. Since I don't do much in that marketplace I don't have the upcoming board handicapped from a Teaser standpoint, but if someone really does have a set of teams that they like, extending a full Carolina position across a series of Teaser combinations is not a bad strategy. Keep in mind that it also brings the "time lag" component into a positive - should someone have .25 or so of a position from Carolina to several other teams, and the Panthers bring the first leg home, it will open up some equity into maneuvering across those games the remainder of the week. the key is to just keep the extensions within the usual bankroll comfort zone.

  32. #32
    puffkit
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    funny matt i saw all those options too and just backed off........need to look at the matchups closer to narrow it down....can really get into trouble with so many appealing options on the board.....and you forgot my fav option......NE -0.5 (which may have not been up when you posted)

    i did just pull the trigger on ne-0.5/caro-2.5.....

  33. #33
    puffkit
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    as per jacksonville ....my first inclination was at -1.5 too, but i'm a little spooked about the billick-esque playcalling mr marrone employed yesterday. bortles has made ZERO progress......watching bortles throw reminds me of playing 'three pop flys' with my kids......so jacksonville can really only run and cleveland is really good at stopping the run....does that mean bortles slinging again to get any margin here?

  34. #34
    Champthinks
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    Quote Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
    lol. that quote doesn't apply to an internet forum thread.
    Oh ok should of gone with
    my when I see a physically depleted team Quote .since the trolls were wearing some of us down
    "Fatigue makes cowards of all men "
    Hope that's more applicable here

  35. #35
    Champthinks
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    Quote Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
    lol. that quote doesn't apply to an internet forum thread.
    Oh ok should of gone with
    my when I see a spot where I think a team may be depleted of energy Quote .since the trolls were wearing some of us down
    "Fatigue makes cowards of all men "
    Hope that's more applicable here

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