1. #1
    Point Blank
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    PB (11/10: The Weekend Edition - Will Ole Miss be Rebels Without a Cause




    Weekend Edition: Will Ole Miss be Rebels Without a Cause…There’s more than meets the eye at Clemson this evening…If you can get a Citra Daydream this weekend you should (and somebody please send a few over my way)…


    Point Blank – November 10, 2017

    For some of us this Friday marks the single busiest day of the entire sports betting year. We have a tremendous NCAA football board ahead, highlighted by three Top 10 showdowns, the usual intrigue across the NFL slate, and the bouncing ball reverberating with a unique syncopation, the early NBA season continuing on, and now a deep slate of college hoops, with new faces all over the place that we will be entering in the data-bases as the box scores come in.

    I relish this intensity, but admittedly don’t maximize it – there are going to be some outstanding opportunities that will be missed because of the time crunch, especially on the college hardwoods, but there is money to be made because of the challenge this brings to the guys behind the counter. And on that front kudos to the guys at CRIS for those overnight totals yesterday, including the added games. I am not sure how many folks appreciate what they have to do to even hold their own on those.

    With so much ground to cover the jukebox will be in play for some background to ease you through, and because Leonard Cohen came up in one of the thread discussions this week it is the natural place to go, just a few days after the one-year anniversary of his passing. That was an eerie moment for me, listening to Cohen’s latest recording “You Want it Darker”, while on the way to meet an industry associate for dinner, when the phone interrupted the music and I was told of his death. Cohen’s words and music have meant a lot to me through the years, and for those that want to get more out of the human experience, he is a timeless tour guide through those misty higher clouds of life.

    Let’s connect it up to the intensity of the challenge so many of us face today with “Who By Fire”, live from Las Vegas back in 2010, with the great Javier Mas bringing it in…





    Now time to roll up the sleeves because there is a lot of work to do, with the theme for today using technique to help sort through these deep menus.


    Item: On the NCAA gridirons, will Ole Miss be Rebels without a cause

    One of the running thread discussions this week has been various ways of incorporating fatigue into college football power ratings, which is such an essential process at this time of the season. There is a natural logic to teams wearing down, but it is also such a natural one that it is not lost on the oddsmakers as they do their pricing, and various market elements as they bring their wheelbarrows to the betting windows. Hence the key being fine-tuning it better than the rest.

    There have been some excellent discussion points in the threads already this week, with a well-prepared chart on defensive fatigue that you can find early in the comments of the Tuesday edition, plus also discussion of how extended stretches without a bye become an important study as well. Consider how arduous this week’s trip to Colorado is for USC, the Trojans playing all 12 regular-season games without a bye, and being up to #11 on that list this week while dealing with the altitude of Boulder.

    I am going to have some fun with the fatigue notions this week and take a different direction, because it is one that we rarely see. So many times we think of tired teams as bad ones being beaten and battered down, and have to wonder if the line leaves enough value to pile on against them. But what if it is actually a big favorite that shows some fatigue?

    I will be in play with #173 UL-Lafayette (Noon Eastern, note the time change) on Saturday, a game in which I am not sure favored Ole Miss brings either the energy level or the physical freshness to be able to build much of a margin, and a shopper can still find as high as +20 this morning, up from an opener of 17.5.

    I have to tip my cap to Matt Luke for the way that he has managed to keep the Rebels trying hard every week, despite his lame-duck status and their lack of depth on defense. I got stung in the pocket by bucking them at Kentucky last week, the offense putting together a great closing drive to find the end zone a few seconds before the clock ran out, but even in winning that one the defensive issues were in full focus, allowing a mediocre Kentucky team to roll up 34 points, with over 200 yards both running and passing.

    It has been six straight games of allowing at least 34 points and over 400 yards, all without a bye, so now comes an even tougher challenge for Luke – how does he get a struggling defense to go out and compete hard against an opponent that doesn’t excite them, especially knowing there are two more SEC games ahead, not only hosting Texas A&M next Saturday, but the short turnaround before playing at Mississippi State on Thanksgiving night? And the early start brings a lethargic crowd that also doesn’t help much.





    One of the keys when backing a big underdog is understanding the sense of purpose from the favored coach and this one is ideal because of the setting – I believe Luke would be thrilled to win by 10-14 points, avoid injuries, and get to next week. The other key is finding an underdog that will bring the will to compete, and I believe we have that.

    UL-Lafayette has gone to bowls in five of six seasons under Mark Hudspeth and the Ragin’ Cajuns can make it six with a good closing stretch. The season could have gotten away from them in a disturbing 47-3 loss at Arkansas State back in mid-October, the worst conference loss of the Hudspeth years, but with extended time off before they took the field again he made the kind of savvy move a veteran coach will do, taking the red-shirt off of talented freshmen QB Levi Lewis, a catalyst for the future of the program, and making him the starter now.

    The win at South Alabama in the first game with Lewis at the helm wasn’t a thing of beauty, and his passing accuracy will be a work in progress, but he showed the athleticism that brings so much upside, running for 129 yards in 18 attempts. It is that part of the game in which they can slow down the flow against a depth-shy Ole Miss defensive front, and it isn’t often that we take nearly three full TDs with an underdog that can run the ball successfully.

    From a freshness standpoint the Cajuns are also at the other end of the spectrum than the Rebels. One of the fears with an underdog stepping out of class is getting worn down but that is not a factor here - this is only their second game in 22 days, having been through two bye weeks already, which should have them about as close to their physical capacity for early November as any program.

    Now let’s shift to the hardwoods and put some more technique into play, along with one of those little info tidbits that can provide a subtle added edge.


    Item: NCAA Dribbling for Dollar$ begins; combining some early-season concepts with Clemson

    On Wednesday there was a focus point on how off-season trips can help teams to get out of the gate early in the campaign, being much further along in their development. Another factor that you should be looking at over the next few Fridays are home teams that are playing the night before their football team is also playing a home game. Combine those two factors and you have a game worthy of deeper study, and I believe there is one also worth betting, so there will be some #588 Clemson (7:00 Eastern) going into pocket.





    Brad Brownell’s Tigers got a big jump on development in their August trip to Spain, and while there isn’t a player that will have the NBA scouts excited on the roster, there is plenty of experience and depth, including grad transfer Mark Donnal (Michigan) joining the rotation. I expect them to be much further along in terms of being ready than Western Carolina and it goes beyond the summer trip – there was also an exhibition game against Tennessee a week ago, played for the Salvation Army hurricane relief efforts. Clemson did not execute well in that one, losing 71-67, but it was a further piece in the development puzzle.

    Now think about tonight’s crowd. Ordinarily a home game vs. an opponent of this class would mean sparse attendance and not much passion at Littlejohn Coliseum. But what takes place on Saturday afternoon? The biggest Clemson home football game of the season, vs. Florida State. Yes, the Seminoles are down this season, but the alums didn’t know that when they were trying to grab tickets.

    What will many of the folks do that are coming back to campus for the weekend? They will also watch the basketball game on Friday night. Years of filing away notes have shown me that the coaches and players are aware of those extra folks watching, and it gives them the boost to go a little harder, wanting to impress those fans and have them come back for future games.

    Tonight there is an added wild card. I specifically noted above that the Clemson roster won’t create buzz from NBA scouts, but someone in Littlejohn this evening might. Zion Williamson, from Spartanburg Day High School, is considered one of the nation’s best prospects for next season, and he could be in the NBA the following year. WSPA television in Spartanburg reported that this weekend is expected to be an unofficial visit to Clemson by Williamson, and that creates more reason for Brownell to want to put on a good show this evening.

    For Western Carolina there is nothing special about the setting. The Catamounts will be playing seven games away from campus in November, grabbing some paychecks to help the athletic department coffers, and off of a 9-23 season Larry Hunter won’t be attacking this one with much urgency – it is mosstly about getting the pieces to fit for conference play later.


    Item: About Last Night, NBA

    As you might expect after the Thunder were a focus point here earlier in the week they were under the microscope vs. the Nuggets last night, partially to gauge how much passion they would bring to the game, and also in building the handicap out for this evening, in a truly rare setting of a team playing the night after the altitude while also crossing a time zone to the east. The scheduling aspect is even more exacerbated because of the late Thursday start for the TNT broadcast.

    I can’t go much further into the Friday matchup yet because there are questions about the availability of Steven Adams and Austin Rivers, which is why the stores were slow to open (I may get some Under 209 out of it). But there is a takeaway from the Denver loss that I believe matters – the Thunder really did come out and compete hard. The offense just isn’t working.

    Let’s focus in on both aspects. Despite opening 4-7 the intensity has been there – OKC leads the NBA in steals by a wide margin, the 11.0 per game making them the only team in double figures, and they are #2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 97.7 PP100. Only Boston has been better, and there is quite a drop before getting to #3 Memphis at 99.7.

    But that offense is a mess. Their 101.6 PP100 rates #22, and despite adding Carmelo Anthony and Paul George they have gotten worse on that end of the court, not better. The issue remains what was written here earlier in the week – both Anthony and George have more turnovers than assists, and last night that duo combined for six TOs vs. only two assists. There is a lot of confusion evident.



    There shouldn’t be any question about the competitive fire of this team – they are bringing it, although there could be some physical fatigue this evening. It is in the offensive tactics that there is a real issue, not just players that will struggle to mesh their games anyway, but in Billy Donovan not being the guy to finesse the situation.

    OKC went into the fourth quarter tied last night, and got out-scored 27-19 over those final 12 minutes. The offense had four turnovers and one assist across that span. It was ugly execution against a mediocre defense (Denver is #18 in PP100 allowed), and if the Thunder are to turn their game it is in developing an offensive chemistry where it will have to happen. Can it?


    For your listening pleasure…

    Matt Landes and I are back for the latest edition of “House of Yards”, and even if you missed the discussion about Seahawks/Cardinals and those Adrian Peterson props, there is plenty to help guide you to some winners this weekend – three more key NFL matchups, USC/Colorado on Saturday, my Best Bet, Matt’s Teaser of the Week, and some general handicapping discussion across some key concepts. There is also, of course, the Beer of the Week, which can you read about in more detail in today’s closing take.





    And for your drinking pleasure…


    I have to admit, I like this one. I like this one a lot. I started liking it after the very first sip, a moment after the aroma had already set the stage, when that unique texture brought all sorts of citrus forward, with plenty of depth on the finish. But I also had to temper my enthusiasm and savor it slowly, because Matt had only brought me one can when we met in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago. He may be hoarding cases of the stuff, which makes it appropriate for him to fire away with the tasting notes (if you want to follow along his pursuit of the best in hops, you can go to Just Here for the Beer on Instagram).

    Brewery: Other Half
    Beer: Citra Daydream
    Style: Oat Cream IPA
    ABV: 6%




    Like plenty of the hazy IPAs behind craft beer's current can craze, Citra Daydream pours a cloudy yellow with a thick white head and imparts hop notes of grapefruit and tropical fruit accompanied by a biscuity malt. But while the aroma and flavor hit the mark, what really sets Citra Daydream apart is its mouthfeel - on top of moderate carbonation and a pleasant rounded bitterness, lactose and oats team up to provide an exceptionally creamy and borderline chewy body that keeps it going down smooth.

    The only downside to this one is that when it's gone, all that's left to do is daydream about obtaining more.

    Rating: 4.5 out of 5


    Your Daily Dose of SportsBIT:






    If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as in unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-10-17 at 08:34 PM.

  2. #2
    deltonmyers
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    Hey Dave,

    I've had my eye on the ND/MIA total this week and was holding out for it to tick just a bit higher. However, it has been painted at 57.5 for a couple days and I'm now more worried about it going down than I'm hopeful of it going up. This feels most like the ND/Georgia game than any of the others the Irish have played this year and I have more of the grind it out feel for this one. What are your thoughts on the 57.5?

  3. #3
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by deltonmyers View Post
    Hey Dave,

    I've had my eye on the ND/MIA total this week and was holding out for it to tick just a bit higher. However, it has been painted at 57.5 for a couple days and I'm now more worried about it going down than I'm hopeful of it going up. This feels most like the ND/Georgia game than any of the others the Irish have played this year and I have more of the grind it out feel for this one. What are your thoughts on the 57.5?
    I believe you make a good case there. Notre Dame's ground game is an unusual case, a team getting explosion plays without running much option, 7 TD runs of 50 yards or more already. That is a great OL overpowering the opposition, and taking advantage of what happens when opponents are forced to load the box. But Miami has enough talent and tactics on that side of the ball to limit big plays from being made. I chart "home run" touchdowns as plays of 40 yards or more and the Hurricanes haven't allowed one all season, after only giving up 2 LY, both on pass plays. It isn't that Miami will win the battle at the line of scrimmage, but that by preventing big plays they turn the Irish ground game into a machine that generates first downs and grinds the clock, rather than quick strikes. I don't think it ever gets higher than 57.5, so I would get in play now.

  4. #4
    SportsHec8
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    I think -200 is a steal, no?

    Will Dirk Koetter be the coach of the Bucs for Week 1 of the 2018 Regular Season?

    Winner




    • FUTURES
    • NFL SPECIALS


  5. #5
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
    I think -200 is a steal, no?

    Will Dirk Koetter be the coach of the Bucs for Week 1 of the 2018 Regular Season?

    Winner





    • FUTURES
    • NFL SPECIALS

    A shame that can't be parlayed to "Will Todd Monken ever ben an NFL OC again", although adding the latter would stretch the ticket out a long way into the future. I don't believe the Bucs can do enough the rest of the way to save Koetter, especially as it becomes more apparent that he just doesn't have the skill set for that level of coaching (though he is young enough to have another decent run at a mid-level NCAA program).
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: SportsHec8

  6. #6
    peterose4hof
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    Hi David,

    I wanted to get your opinion on a game in your own back yard tonight with BYU taking on UNLV.

    Both teams appear on the worn-down defenses chart. UNLV has faced 77 plays per game and BYU's opponents time of possession is sitting at 33 minutes per game. In addition, neither has had a bye since September (9/23 & 9/16). I've got to think both defenses will be a step slow bringing Over 49 in to play.

    I know there are questions at QB for BYU, but whether it's Hoge or Wilstead taking snaps there is likely to be opportunities against the Rebels defense that ranks 92nd in YPP. On the other side of the ball UNLV has averaged 28 points per game since Johnny Stanton took over at QB.

  7. #7
    pmo561
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    Mr. Malinsky 2 part question here: Jacksonville has a decent DVOA% in pass O and when you think about Blake Bortles it is hard to imagine how it is possible for the Jags to be ranked dead in the middle (#16) in that category?

    Also the fact that JAX is #1 in Pass D but #31 in rush D how often do you see that kind of disparity from one unit? I just started following the FO charts this season so i figured you would have a broader perspective.

  8. #8
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterose4hof View Post
    Hi David,

    I wanted to get your opinion on a game in your own back yard tonight with BYU taking on UNLV.

    Both teams appear on the worn-down defenses chart. UNLV has faced 77 plays per game and BYU's opponents time of possession is sitting at 33 minutes per game. In addition, neither has had a bye since September (9/23 & 9/16). I've got to think both defenses will be a step slow bringing Over 49 in to play.

    I know there are questions at QB for BYU, but whether it's Hoge or Wilstead taking snaps there is likely to be opportunities against the Rebels defense that ranks 92nd in YPP. On the other side of the ball UNLV has averaged 28 points per game since Johnny Stanton took over at QB.
    I wish I could trust the BYU QBs a bit more but I can't, and it also connects to a running theme here over the course of the season - I am not a fan of Ty Detmer's playbook. This one would have to get to 47 before enticing me to take a plunge.

  9. #9
    Champthinks
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    Oops u done it again
    Star next to college foot. game # 173 .with note to wait
    Thought we could maybe see +21 .
    I don't think so now . Forced to get down now at +20 .
    My info showed an open at 18.5 then it went to 17.5 then up to 20 .which are disappearing to 19 this morning .

  10. #10
    Emily_Haines
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    I'm not sold on ULL's offense. They started out great this season but the last four games the offense has not done anything against sunbelt defenses. They haven't played the toughest schedule and the defense has been consistently bad. The few decent teams they played Tulsa, A&M and Arkansas St. they gave up 40+ in each game. I just can't see Ole Miss not putting up 500+ yds and 40+ pts in this one even with the back up QB.

  11. #11
    Champthinks
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    Which leads to a question since this is not the first this has happened .
    That I think u pulled the trigger early on a game that I thought was trending or would trend favorably for a better number nearer game time .
    Is this a case when u fire a day early that u are hearing that money is about to come in ?

  12. #12
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Emily_Haines View Post
    I'm not sold on ULL's offense. They started out great this season but the last four games the offense has not done anything against sunbelt defenses. They haven't played the toughest schedule and the defense has been consistently bad. The few decent teams they played Tulsa, A&M and Arkansas St. they gave up 40+ in each game. I just can't see Ole Miss not putting up 500+ yds and 40+ pts in this one even with the back up QB.
    The ULL offense really isn't special, which of course if part of what buys us the +20. But I do like what Hudspeth has done in terms of setting an energy tone going forward. Levi Lewis generates an enthusiasm around the team now because he provides a spark that was missing, something that they can build around. Those are the little things that I look for, out of the way teams that have had something done to generate a spark down the stretch. They likely won't do anything brilliant in Oxford, but underdogs of +20 that can generate rushing yardage have a chance to hang around.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-10-17 at 12:50 PM.

  13. #13
    SportsHec8
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    i just now caught up on yesterday's thread. it was kind of amazing that the thing that made those guys think the thread was fake was that everyone was being polite to each other and communicated in full sentences.

  14. #14
    SportsHec8
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    Always look forward to hearing Dave's answers on these but as the biggest Jaguars fan on the planet this season (I'm not actually a fan, I just thought they were severly underrated by the market so have bet them every week in every which way), I'll throw in my two cents.

    1) I started the Jags as the 27th ranked pass offense, getting only 6.0 YPA and allowing 2 sacks. As the season has progressed they've steadily moved up to #19. I have their YPA as 6.8 and their sacks down to 1.4. That is a MASSIVE jump, as big as you'll see for any team in one season.

    So was it easy opponents? The answer is an emphatic no - @hou, ten, bal, @nyj, @pit, LAR, @ind, cinci is a tough slate of pass defenses

    Was it easy circumstances? This is the most likely culprit. The jags have won every game in blowout fashion and have been unable to muster comebacks in the games they lost (titans, jets and rams). I will say the Jets game should've been a win if not for one of the worst penalties of the year on the game winning score.

    Here's the key for me... my numbers and my eye test tell me that these easy circumstances have added to the confidence level of BB. The last 3 games have been the best I've ever seen him play. Blake has thrown 100 passes for 809 yards (8.1 YPA) with only 1 pick. That's despite taking a beating against LAR (5 sacks). He looks like a different player.

    Just like Dak Prescott, having the best running back in the game helps grow the player and his confidence and we're seeing the fruit of that labor now. So I not only agree with FO's 16th ranking for this pass O, i expect it to continue.

    Regarding the defense, Rush v Pass is something you'll see occasionally when one unit is just so damn dominant. Last year you saw a similar split with the Broncos. With that said, I've seen a massive improvement by the Jags Run D over the last few weeks and think that will continue as they head to the #1 seed in the AFC

    Quote Originally Posted by pmo561 View Post
    Mr. Malinsky 2 part question here: Jacksonville has a decent DVOA% in pass O and when you think about Blake Bortles it is hard to imagine how it is possible for the Jags to be ranked dead in the middle (#16) in that category?

    Also the fact that JAX is #1 in Pass D but #31 in rush D how often do you see that kind of disparity from one unit? I just started following the FO charts this season so i figured you would have a broader perspective.

  15. #15
    Fortunaught
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    Greetings Dave, it's been a little while, hope all is well, but I am digging the new format. I just had a quick question for you regarding your assessment of the Stanford coaching staff heading into tonight's game with the Dawgs. I already grabbed the -6, but am leaning strongly toward doubling back and taking another swipe, in part based on my sense that any offensive play that doesn't end in a delay of game constitutes a rousing success for this Stanford coaching staff. I'm heading to the game tonight, and quite possibly onto the Cardinal sideline, and am tempted as all hell to try and grab any headset I can get my hands on just to try and listen in and gauge the level of dysfunction going on with their play calling. Normally you would attribute a good portion of that to a new signal caller on the field, but in this instance I think it far more systemic. That, paired with a thinning secondary, and Love still not yet being close to 100% could have this number of less than a TD feeling quite short, possibly by as early as halftime as the home squad ain't exactly built to reel teams back in. Thanks as always.

  16. #16
    benjy21
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    Hey Dave,

    I just watched HC Davies press conference for the upcoming Texas A&M game. Overall impression is that he was very negative on the situation with New Mexico football ("we are not going to win 9 games a year here", "we have the lowest football budget in the Mountain West Conference" & "we have lost 7 offensive linemen that we planned on being here in the Spring" are a few examples of things he said). Based on the HC being so negative, I can see why the team is struggling, and why he may have lost the locker room.

    If one is to get involved in this game, the following must be answered: is Texas A&M going to be motivated to play hard against this inferior opponent, and would you lay the 18.5 currently available in the market?
    Last edited by benjy21; 11-10-17 at 02:38 PM.

  17. #17
    Matt Landes
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    For the record, Dave received 8 other cans in addition to Citra Daydream in our beer exchange, so don't feel sorry for him for a second. I could've provided multiples of Citra Daydream, but as the Cardinals TNF props discussion revealed earlier this week, he can be partial to a diversified portfolio....

  18. #18
    Point Blank
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    Always look forward to hearing Dave's answers on these but as the biggest Jaguars fan on the planet this season (I'm not actually a fan, I just thought they were severly underrated by the market so have bet them every week in every which way), I'll throw in my two cents.

    1) I started the Jags as the 27th ranked pass offense, getting only 6.0 YPA and allowing 2 sacks. As the season has progressed they've steadily moved up to #19. I have their YPA as 6.8 and their sacks down to 1.4. That is a MASSIVE jump, as big as you'll see for any team in one season.

    So was it easy opponents? The answer is an emphatic no - @hou, ten, bal, @nyj, @pit, LAR, @ind, cinci is a tough slate of pass defenses

    Was it easy circumstances? This is the most likely culprit. The jags have won every game in blowout fashion and have been unable to muster comebacks in the games they lost (titans, jets and rams). I will say the Jets game should've been a win if not for one of the worst penalties of the year on the game winning score.

    Here's the key for me... my numbers and my eye test tell me that these easy circumstances have added to the confidence level of BB. The last 3 games have been the best I've ever seen him play. Blake has thrown 100 passes for 809 yards (8.1 YPA) with only 1 pick. That's despite taking a beating against LAR (5 sacks). He looks like a different player.

    Just like Dak Prescott, having the best running back in the game helps grow the player and his confidence and we're seeing the fruit of that labor now. So I not only agree with FO's 16th ranking for this pass O, i expect it to continue.

    Regarding the defense, Rush v Pass is something you'll see occasionally when one unit is just so damn dominant. Last year you saw a similar split with the Broncos. With that said, I've seen a massive improvement by the Jags Run D over the last few weeks and think that will continue as they head to the #1 seed in the AFC


    Originally Posted by pmo561
    Mr. Malinsky 2 part question here: Jacksonville has a decent DVOA% in pass O and when you think about Blake Bortles it is hard to imagine how it is possible for the Jags to be ranked dead in the middle (#16) in that category?

    Also the fact that JAX is #1 in Pass D but #31 in rush D how often do you see that kind of disparity from one unit? I just started following the FO charts this season so i figured you would have a broader perspective.




    ---------------------------------------------
    Time to jump back in after some busy buying on selling on the NCAA hoops landscape. I still have an open question about Bortles, and while I agree with SportsHec that he has been making some good throws, that has never really be a problem him - he has those skills. The issue has been his ability to play with poise in the heat of a difficult situation, and that has not been solved. There have only been two games all season sitting on one possession in the fourth quarter, vs. the Rams and Jets, and the offense only managed one field goal, that coming on a short drive after a turnover. That also includes nearly a full OT in the New York game. The offense also failed to score in the third quarter of those two games, when there was a chance to turn the game flow. Will the play of the rest of the team buoy his confidence? I believe so. But the jury remains out on Bortles' maturity to handle close game situations, the only attempts so far this season being failures.

    The rush defense is tricky, and was brought up as a topic in a Tuesday review back the week that it happened - it is so difficult to sift through touchdown runs of Bilal Powell for 75 yards and Elijah McGuire for 69 in that loss to the Jets. Those plays are major outliers from the standpoint of football consciousness, a once-a-career run by each guy, which just happened to take place on the same day. Outside of those two runs the Jaguars have allowed 4.2 per rush, which is a tick below league average. Now they also have Marcell Dareus to help shore that area up, with Dareus getting a dozen snaps in their almost complete lock-down of the Bengals last week in his first Jags game. To me this looks like a rush defense that should be no worse than middle of the pack, perhaps even a level above with Dareus, so may ratings of the unit are pretty far off of the FO models.

  19. #19
    Snowball
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    Today's Date 11-10-17

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    Pretty simple to see what's going on here.
    Throw in the micro brew advertizing and
    this is all nothing more than an effort to usurp
    SBR's reach for marketing purposes.

  20. #20
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fortunaught View Post
    Greetings Dave, it's been a little while, hope all is well, but I am digging the new format. I just had a quick question for you regarding your assessment of the Stanford coaching staff heading into tonight's game with the Dawgs. I already grabbed the -6, but am leaning strongly toward doubling back and taking another swipe, in part based on my sense that any offensive play that doesn't end in a delay of game constitutes a rousing success for this Stanford coaching staff. I'm heading to the game tonight, and quite possibly onto the Cardinal sideline, and am tempted as all hell to try and grab any headset I can get my hands on just to try and listen in and gauge the level of dysfunction going on with their play calling. Normally you would attribute a good portion of that to a new signal caller on the field, but in this instance I think it far more systemic. That, paired with a thinning secondary, and Love still not yet being close to 100% could have this number of less than a TD feeling quite short, possibly by as early as halftime as the home squad ain't exactly built to reel teams back in. Thanks as always.
    What you have seen from Stanford is what I have seen from Stanford. There are some that say that the Cardinal have been held back by mediocre play since Andrew Luck left, but I am instead beginning to question how well this staff has been able to develop QBs. There wasn't any kind of answer at all against the Washington defense LY a game in which they only generated six points and 213 yards, and while the Huskies won't get anywhere near that kind of distance this season, they don't have to play all that well to win by 7 points. That is when the notion of "value" often comes to mind the most - Stanford could play a good game and lose by a full TD. If Stanford plays a bad game...
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-10-17 at 02:56 PM.

  21. #21
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy21 View Post
    Hey Dave,

    I just watch HC Davies press conference for the upcoming Texas A&M game. Overall impression is that he was very negative on the situation with New Mexico football ("we are not going to win 9 games a year here", "we have the lowest football budget in the Mountain West Conference" & "we have lost 7 offensive linemen that we planned on being here in the Spring" are a few examples of things he said). Based on the HC being so negative, I can see why the team is struggling, and why he may have lost the locker room.

    If one is to get involved in this game, the following must be answered: is Texas A&M going to be motivated to play hard against this inferior opponent, and would you lay the 18.5 currently available in the market?
    Here is what has to be troublesome not only as you sort through those quotes of Davies, but also the early-season reports by the local Albuquerque media of there being an investigation into the program - check those last two road games. They closed essentially at pick'em if we average out the pointspreads at Fresno State and Wyoming, yet lost by a combined 80-3. That was ugly. Will Texas A&M play with some fire in what might be the last game in College Station for Kevin Sumlin? That is difficult to answer, but CRIS and some good shops have gone to -17.5, and should it tick just one more time, I will take a flier at -17. The Lobos have a home game on ESPN2 vs. UNLV Friday night that makes it even less likely that they fight from behind in this one.

  22. #22
    SportsHec8
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    i would encourage you to read yesterday's post where a lot of this was hashed out

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...nto-night.html

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Today's Date 11-10-17

    Join Dates of posters in this thread:

    Point Blank 11-06-17
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    benjy21 11-06-17
    Matt Landes 11-06-17
    Champthinks 08-01-17 (only 7 posts, all in Point Blank threads)

    Pretty simple to see what's going on here.
    Throw in the micro brew advertizing and
    this is all nothing more than an effort to usurp
    SBR's reach for marketing purposes.

  23. #23
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Today's Date 11-10-17

    Join Dates of posters in this thread:

    Point Blank 11-06-17
    deltonmyers 11-08-17
    SportsHec8 11-07-17
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    pmo561 11-09-17
    Fortunaut 05-25-17 (1st post ever)
    benjy21 11-06-17
    Matt Landes 11-06-17
    Champthinks 08-01-17 (only 7 posts, all in Point Blank threads)

    Pretty simple to see what's going on here.
    Throw in the micro brew advertizing and
    this is all nothing more than an effort to usurp
    SBR's reach for marketing purposes.
    That has already been addressed more than enough times in previous threads. You might want to consider doing a little more research before posting, this makes you appear to be a bit out of touch. Those posters have all been around for quite some time, we just switched the platform this week, and all you have to do is go here to see what you should have seen before you posted. A little homework can go a long way...

  24. #24
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    For the record, Dave received 8 other cans in addition to Citra Daydream in our beer exchange, so don't feel sorry for him for a second. I could've provided multiples of Citra Daydream, but as the Cardinals TNF props discussion revealed earlier this week, he can be partial to a diversified portfolio....
    Essentially all I take away from that is that you could have provided multiples of Citra Daydream, and didn't.

  25. #25
    benjy21
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    Hey Dave,

    I don't understand UCLA being favored by 3 over Arizona State. The Bruin defense seems to have ended its season in October, having given up 44 & 48 points in their 2 November games. Meanwhile, since their early season struggles, ASU is 4-2 in their last 6 games, and with 2 out of their last 3 games winnable, in a position to get a decent bowl game. Even if QB Rosen plays, with Jim Mora a dead man walking, the energy may not be there for UCLA.

    What do you see in this matchup and is there value on the Sun Devils +3.

  26. #26
    Snowball
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    I didn't know you had your own space here.
    All good and good luck.

  27. #27
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy21 View Post
    Hey Dave,

    I don't understand UCLA being favored by 3 over Arizona State. The Bruin defense seems to have ended its season in October, having given up 44 & 48 points in their 2 November games. Meanwhile, since their early season struggles, ASU is 4-2 in their last 6 games, and with 2 out of their last 3 games winnable, in a position to get a decent bowl game. Even if QB Rosen plays, with Jim Mora a dead man walking, the energy may not be there for UCLA.

    What do you see in this matchup and is there value on the Sun Devils +3.
    The Sun Devils will be in pocket. While getting Rosen back is a plus it isn't enough to overcome what the Bruins can't solve, a defensive front allowing 303.2 rushing yards per game at 6.0 per carry. Only San Jose State is giving up more yards per game, and only Air Force has allowed more yards per carry. they don't get much leverage and they haven't tackled well, which means physical runners like Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard will be a difficult matchup for them. One of the keys in the Sun Devils having balance between those two is that both appear to be fresh right now, Richard having had his best game of the season vs. Colorado last week.

    There are some things that can be fixed late in a football season, bad rush defense tends to be at the bottom of that list.

  28. #28
    jakedittler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Today's Date 11-10-17

    Join Dates of posters in this thread:

    Point Blank 11-06-17
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    benjy21 11-06-17
    Matt Landes 11-06-17
    Champthinks 08-01-17 (only 7 posts, all in Point Blank threads)

    Pretty simple to see what's going on here.
    Throw in the micro brew advertizing and
    this is all nothing more than an effort to usurp
    SBR's reach for marketing purposes.
    Add me to the list. I have a recent date as well I come on here to market my business. I have this great business where I sell winter coats in Vegas during the summer. It hasn't been going to well. Hopefully SBR's reach will help.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: SportsHec8

  29. #29
    jakedittler
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    Hey Dave. Uconn made the list of long stretches without a bye. Added to that is a team that for the first time in their history they have moved to a very uptempo team. I imagine the defense is getting worn down by now. And here comes UCF. A high powered offense, and possibly a coach who is building his resume and appeal with gaudy offensive numbers. We have a total in this game at 64, and wouldn't be shocked if UCF puts up at least 45 on their own. But uconn will continue its pace, trying to build that brand for recruiting. Any look towards the over at 64?

  30. #30
    Ocho Cervezas
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    Is there any injury related news surrounding the USC jump to -14 or is this just another case of SoCal $ coming to market as we have seen the last couple seasons?

  31. #31
    DoggyJuice
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    Dave,

    First of all, I really like the new setup. The trolls are an inevitable byproduct, but this format flows a lot better.

    I am particularly interested in paying attention to Fran McCaffery's Iowa team early in this hoops season. The Hawkeyes are bringing back most of their players along with two 6'11" freshmen who can make an immediate impact. Fran loves to mix and match his lineups, and he has plenty of options to choose from with this deep rotation. They also spent time in Europe over the summer, which you touched on the other day.

    Regarding the Big Ten, they begin conference play in early December this year, which is a change from the normal late December/early January start. This may particularly benefit teams like Iowa who have had the extra time to gel. Are there any other specific Big Ten teams who you believe may benefit from, or alternatively, be hindered by, this early conference slate?

    Thanks for teaching a man how to fish.

    -Mike R

  32. #32
    jakedittler
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    It was just touched on, but I wanted to add to it. Colorado has flashed a +14, and Nd/Mia has reached as high as 59.5, with 57.5 being talked about as a possible solid bet. Was hoping for an update on both of those.

  33. #33
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    Hey Dave. Uconn made the list of long stretches without a bye. Added to that is a team that for the first time in their history they have moved to a very uptempo team. I imagine the defense is getting worn down by now. And here comes UCF. A high powered offense, and possibly a coach who is building his resume and appeal with gaudy offensive numbers. We have a total in this game at 64, and wouldn't be shocked if UCF puts up at least 45 on their own. But uconn will continue its pace, trying to build that brand for recruiting. Any look towards the over at 64?
    The problem with reading the total is the side price - I don't know if I have ever bet an Over when one team was favored in the 40's. The difficult is that it could mean a lot of younger guys out there in the second half if the game breaks open, which might make sense for both coaches. Someone with Over inclinations may want to think about the First Half, but even in looking that way check the weather - there is the prospect for rain in Orlando tomorrow.

  34. #34
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ocho Cervezas View Post
    Is there any injury related news surrounding the USC jump to -14 or is this just another case of SoCal $ coming to market as we have seen the last couple seasons?
    Nothing disconcerting coming from the Colorado injury reports so the +14 is being accepted, and also a small pinch of +425, which can be found in a couple of stores now.

  35. #35
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoggyJuice View Post
    Dave,

    First of all, I really like the new setup. The trolls are an inevitable byproduct, but this format flows a lot better.

    I am particularly interested in paying attention to Fran McCaffery's Iowa team early in this hoops season. The Hawkeyes are bringing back most of their players along with two 6'11" freshmen who can make an immediate impact. Fran loves to mix and match his lineups, and he has plenty of options to choose from with this deep rotation. They also spent time in Europe over the summer, which you touched on the other day.

    Regarding the Big Ten, they begin conference play in early December this year, which is a change from the normal late December/early January start. This may particularly benefit teams like Iowa who have had the extra time to gel. Are there any other specific Big Ten teams who you believe may benefit from, or alternatively, be hindered by, this early conference slate?

    Thanks for teaching a man how to fish.

    -Mike R
    The new Big 10 scheduling lay-out is a good question, although many of the teams are preparing for it by playing softer November schedules than usual, especially when it comes to road games (Rutgers won't even leave campus until the conference opener). I have not thought that far ahead as to which teams will be the most ready to handle it except for Purdue not only having had a summer trip, but having had one of the best possible, representing the U.S. at the World University Games in Taipei. What will also be important is to see what happens when these teams step back out of league play in the middle of December, and there will almost assuredly be a feature topic or two on that front because it is so compelling.

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