1. #1
    Point Blank
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    PB (11/9): Seahawks/Cardinals - It's "All-Day's" Hard Journey Into Night

    Can All-Day make the tough transition into All-Night…All of those yellow flags are becoming a red flag for the Seahawks…Maybe it is a good thing when players call their coach Brad…

    Point Blank – November 9, 2017

    There wasn’t an intention for the Thursday edition to be overly focused on the Prime Time NFL game, but the early season matchups brought such compelling handicapping issues that it became the natural thing to do most weeks. Today it is again, so let’s head to “The Game Inside the Game” for Seahawks/Cardinals.

    Adrian Peterson earned the nickname “All-Day” through those terrific performances in the early stages of his career, and he certainly was that at San Francisco on Sunday. The biggest question in tonight’s matchup is whether All-Day will have enough in the tank to be all-night.


    Item: We are not likely to see Sunday’s Adrian Peterson this evening

    Peterson shouldered quite a load for the Arizona offense vs. the 49ers, running for 159 yards and catching a pair of passes for eight more. After we eliminate the two kneel-downs from Drew Stanton on the final possession (and by now you should instinctively know that you need to do that), he had touches on 39 of 71 snaps.



    That is quite a workload for any NFL running back at any time, much less one that has been in the league for 10 seasons, and only had 38 touches in the two previous games combined. How many times prior to Sunday had Peterson reached 39? Never. That All-Day moniker may have come from some big workloads, but his previous high in touches came back in 2013, 35 rushes and two receptions in a Minnesota win over Chicago. What happened to Peterson after he had set that career high? The two ensuing games he was held to 58 yards on 18 attempts, while catching only two passes in a pair of Viking losses.

    Last Thursday the focus here was on LeSean McCoy, who was coming off of a major workload against Oakland, also his career high in touches. McCoy simply did not have it against the Jets after the short recovery time, only managing 25 yards on 12 careers, and despite being the Bills leading receiver entering the game, he did not catch a pass.

    Might we see a similar drop-off from Peterson? I believe so, especially at his age. Yes, missing almost all of two recent seasons has kept his body from accumulating the hits that wear down most RBs, but at the same time that lack of action also means that his stamina is not where it could be. Any lessening of what they get from him becomes a major issue for the Cardinals offense, because there was a major key beyond Peterson’s production on Sunday – when he had the ball, it meant that Drew Stanton didn’t.

    Stanton has been around for a decade, but has only seen enough playing time to throw 544 passes, with far more interceptions (21) than touchdowns (16), and an ugly 65.9 Passer Rating. Yet somehow the Cardinals have gone 7-3 in his starts, which hints at a competency that I don’t believe is really there.

    It sounds like I am thinking Seattle tonight, right? No…


    Item: Those yellow flags are a red flag for the Seahawks

    When the Redskins took possession for their final drive at Seattle on Sunday they were still within a touchdown of winning the game, despite having been out-gained 437-165 to that point. They then made a couple of big plays to get down the field for the win, something that ordinarily doesn’t happen to the Seahawks, but is indeed more common when Earl Thomas doesn’t play. And I don’t think that Thomas will play again tonight.

    Why was that still only a one possession game, despite the Seattle dominance? Three missed field goals by Blair Walsh got a lot of attention from the Sports Mediaverse, as did a pair of Russell Wilson interceptions. But keep looking through the fine print and you find another culprit – the Seahawks were penalized 16 times for 138 yards.

    That is quite a load, and an issue for this evening is that it is also nothing new. Consider this:

    2017 Penalties Per Game
    32. Seattle 10.3
    31. NY Jets 8.1

    That is a cavernous gap between the Seahawks and the rest of the league. They are on pace to challenge the 2011 Oakland Raiders for the most penalties in a single season, and it truly has been a group effort – 37 different players have been flagged at least once. They are a net -29 in penalty yards per game.

    Yes, Pete Carroll likes for his teams to play aggressively. But that fine line between being aggressive and being sloppy is being crossed far too often, to the point at which games are being lost because of it. His take from earlier in the week: “I’m just really disappointed because we’ve been addressing it and we haven’t cleaned it up. And that really bugs me. We made it a lot harder on ourselves.”



    There is also a particular talent issue involved, which is harder to clean up. The weakness of the Seahawks OL has been a running story across these columns going back several seasons now, and while it will get better with Duane Brown on board, this group has been penalized 13 times for false starts already.

    Now let’s bring some football science into play, and you can better recognize a problem for this evening – when are false starts the biggest issue? In front of tough road crowds, like a key division game at night in a dome.

    Where does that leave me in terms of investments? I’ll be heading to the Props market as they open up this morning. Peterson’s big numbers from Sunday are liable to open up some significant opportunities, and there may be a variety of ways to work around the menus. If his counts are lowered it should mean more passes from Stanton, especially if the game situation has him forced to throw from behind. I don’t want to bet on Stanton making positive plays, which means little interest in completions and yardage categories, but perhaps an over for attempts might be in the value range.


    Item: About Last Night, and appreciating Brad Stevens

    Since Lakers/Celtics was set as an example for the eye test here yesterday it would be appropriate to do some follow up, and it goes back to someone that I have respected a lot, and may be admiring even more in the future, Brad Stevens. Is it possible that in the one-and-done era, one in which basketball tactics have regressed at the professional level, rather than a continuing arc of growth, Stevens may be able to out-smart his way around much of the league?

    Boston has already been having to adjust to the loss of Gordon Hayward in the season opener, and doing it rather well. Last night Al Horford was missing, and then Jayson Tatum went down with an injury 9:21 in and did not return. That left a patchwork rotation, and some stretches of terrible basketball though the middle part of the game as the various pieces tried to adjust to playing together, many of the combinations in their first go-round. But then came a lock-down defensive fourth quarter, when the pieces came together the right way.

    I bring the focus back to Stevens today because that is what the players did in last night’s aftermath. First from Aaron Baynes, who had an effective game starting in pace of Horford, 21 points, eight rebounds and three assists over 22:53: “That’s the best thing about having such a good system and a good coach. He puts us in the place where we need to be to succeed. And when we don’t go out there and try and take it upon ourselves - you know, when we started playing some iso ball, that’s not how we look good. I keep saying and keep preaching it, but the more we live within the system, the better we all look and the more fun we all have, as well. So that’s a credit to Brad.”

    And from Marcus Morris: “Brad is a mastermind when it comes to coaching. He puts guys in the right spots, strong areas where they can succeed. He knows matchups and plugs guys in”.

    After a dozen games the Boston defense is allowing 95.6 PP100. That is 1.4 points better than any other team, and only two others around the league are even under 100. The Celtics win was not a thing of beauty from most measures; they only shot 38.8 percent, including 7-29 from 3-point range. But the way they communicated on defense in the latter stages and kept grinding is a tribute to the focus that Stevens has them playing with, and it is a focus level that is a grade above what we see from so many other teams each night. Perhaps it also tells us something that they players openly speak about the coach by using his first name.


    And for your listening pleasure...

    This week's House of Yards is ready to go, with a deeper dive into Seahawks/Cardinals tonight, along with USC/Colorado, Cowboys/Falcons, Patriots/Broncos and Dolphins/Panthers, capped with the Best Bet, the Best Teaser, and a brilliant Beer of the Week from Matt, one that I have been fortunate enough to have sampled.




    And your Daily Dose of SportsBIT...



    If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as in unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-09-17 at 01:54 PM.

  2. #2
    Matt Landes
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    AP Under 72.5 rushing yards is in pocket. Now if only one of my books can post Peterson carries or Stanton attempts to round out the Thursday Night portfolio....

  3. #3
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    AP Under 72.5 rushing yards is in pocket. Now if only one of my books can post Peterson carries or Stanton attempts to round out the Thursday Night portfolio....
    A shame this is not a Super Bowl or Playoff game, where the oddsmakers had more time to sort through it, but given the nature of the Cavaliers/Rockets matchup and that struggling Cleveland back-court defense, we might have seen someone put up a price on James Harden out-scoring the NFL game, perhaps in the +8.5 or so range.

  4. #4
    Matt Landes
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    Hey Dave,

    One more note from me this morning - I've noticed the archive hasn't been at the bottom of this week's PB columns and figure it's related to the redesign. Any sense as to if/when the archive will be back?

  5. #5
    SportsHec8
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    Dave, are penalties something that regresses in your opinion?

    Outside of the 2011 oakland year, no one else since 2003 has averaged over 10 penalties per game.

    I'm seeing 15.5 penalties in the props market.

    With the league average being 6.6 and arizona sitting at 6.8, a little algebra would tell you to expect 17 penalties.

    Regression from extreme levels would tell me something closer to 14.

    Any thoughts? thank you!

  6. #6
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Hey Dave,

    One more note from me this morning - I've noticed the archive hasn't been at the bottom of this week's PB columns and figure it's related to the redesign. Any sense as to if/when the archive will be back?
    What we have done is to create a new page for the new format, so that all of the PB's forward will be easy to find, which you can find right here. And you will see an archive link as a part of that.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-09-17 at 01:27 PM.

  7. #7
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
    Dave, are penalties something that regresses in your opinion?

    Outside of the 2011 oakland year, no one else since 2003 has averaged over 10 penalties per game.

    I'm seeing 15.5 penalties in the props market.

    With the league average being 6.6 and arizona sitting at 6.8, a little algebra would tell you to expect 17 penalties.

    Regression from extreme levels would tell me something closer to 14.

    Any thoughts? thank you!
    That is a terrific question, which will bring a not-so-terrifc answer. Might a case be made that because the penalties literally bit the Seahawks on the scoreboard Sunday, might there be even more focus on playing clean tonight? There is logic to that. But there is also the issue of an OL that can't seem to stay set until the snap being out there at night in a dome, where false starts are a little more likely.

    That is the long way around saying that I don't have a clue...
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  8. #8
    peterose4hof
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
    Hey Dave,

    One more note from me this morning - I've noticed the archive hasn't been at the bottom of this week's PB columns and figure it's related to the redesign. Any sense as to if/when the archive will be back?
    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    What we have done is to create a new page for the new format, so that all of the PB's forward will be easy to find, which you can find right here. And you will see an archive link as a part of that.
    This might be a useful navigating tool for others so I thought I'd share.

    Toward the top of the page is the blue navigation bar. Currently the "Forum" tab is grey. Under "Forum" you should see "Sports Betting > Point Blank - David Malinsky". If you click on the "Point Blank - David Malinsky" part it takes you to the archives of all previous threads.

  9. #9
    SportsHec8
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    Hi Dave,

    Regarding Arizona's offense today. If we don't believe AP can do much and we don't like Stanton as a player, is there any value on the under 17? I made AZ 14 in this game so I'm considering making a position.

    On sunday i had under 21 on them and despite AP's incredible game, we were still able to cash.

    Thanks!

  10. #10
    MickeyMan
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    Hi Dave, how many sbr accounts have you made to ask yourself questions?

    Thanks!
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  11. #11
    Point Blank
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    And for your Daily Dose of SportsBIT...


  12. #12
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Hi Dave, how many sbr accounts have you made to ask yourself questions?

    Thanks!
    Zero, but thank you for taking the time to ask.

    Had you also taken the time to look through the archives, you would recognize that all of the new posters that have registered here since the start of the week have been contributing to Point Blank since it was first posted at SBR back in July. We were using a Facebook platform for a few months so that it was easier to keep folks from coming in to waste the time of the readers, and forcing them to sift through posts that were off-topic, which is a challenge here now, but this particular format makes it easier on those that wish to come in and make legitimate contributions to handicapping discussion.

    Unfortunately at times those folks will have to sort through some posts that don't contribute anything, and only serve to waste the time of others.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-09-17 at 02:07 PM.

  13. #13
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
    Hi Dave,

    Regarding Arizona's offense today. If we don't believe AP can do much and we don't like Stanton as a player, is there any value on the under 17? I made AZ 14 in this game so I'm considering making a position.

    On sunday i had under 21 on them and despite AP's incredible game, we were still able to cash.

    Thanks!
    I would only go if I could get a win on it falling 17. For that to only be a push makes it a bit too much of a squeeze.

  14. #14
    jakedittler
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Hi Dave, how many sbr accounts have you made to ask yourself questions?

    Thanks!
    Im not sure what made you believe this clown idea. But the majority of us have been following Dave (one of the best pros in the world) for years. And only lately did he switch over to this format. So that's why you see all the people that signed up the same day (11/06/17). If you want access to one of the best, with questions answered and occasional picks, by all means follow along and contribute. But this forum has no place for sorry trolls.
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  15. #15
    jakedittler
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    Az team total at 17.5 -115 is a go number correct? How would you rate it? Along the lines of a full play at that number?

  16. #16
    albinoshark
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    Well said... But the Seahawks are very good shutting down the AZ run (Peterson)...Duane Brown will be back for Seahawks tonight to attack the Cards pass rush, may give R.Wilson more opportunities.... AZ Linebackers are bad and will have a tough time with Graham, and Prosise who also back and playing tonight.

  17. #17
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    Az team total at 17.5 -115 is a go number correct? How would you rate it? Along the lines of a full play at that number?
    I would get about a half of a position out of that as a standalone, but a little less because I will be getting some anti-Cardinals offense props in play, so I don't want to have too much revolving around the same concept. It will be a bit of a grab-bag, and still tough to commit wager amounts because several shops still haven't filled out their props menus yet.

  18. #18
    MickeyMan
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    Im not sure what made you believe this clown idea. But the majority of us have been following Dave (one of the best pros in the world) for years. And only lately did he switch over to this format. So that's why you see all the people that signed up the same day (11/06/17). If you want access to one of the best, with questions answered and occasional picks, by all means follow along and contribute. But this forum has no place for sorry trolls.
    Listen pal, sherry and I ran all of the IP’s in this thread and all of the posters in here are from the same address except for me.

    Now unless you guys are all roommates this would lead us to believe that Dave has multiple usernames. The only way for you guys and Dave to prove otherwise will be separate rooster pics with a yellow post it attached to each said rooster with your sbr username on it.

    Until that happens consider yourselves all under investigation with bans looming.
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  19. #19
    dtp
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Listen pal, sherry and I ran all of the IP’s in this thread and all of the posters in here are from the same address except for me.

    Now unless you guys are all roommates this would lead us to believe that Dave has multiple usernames. The only way for you guys and Dave to prove otherwise will be separate rooster pics with a yellow post it attached to each said rooster with your sbr username on it.

    Until that happens consider yourselves all under investigation with bans looming.


    Dave's been exposed
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  20. #20
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Listen pal, sherry and I ran all of the IPís in this thread and all of the posters in here are from the same address except for me.

    Now unless you guys are all roommates this would lead us to believe that Dave has multiple usernames. The only way for you guys and Dave to prove otherwise will be separate rooster pics with a yellow post it attached to each said rooster with your sbr username on it.

    Until that happens consider yourselves all under investigation with bans looming.
    You got to love a potential tout talking back and forth to himself.

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  21. #21
    deltonmyers
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    And the one big reason for not moving to this format is now starting show itself.

  22. #22
    MickeyMan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    You got to love a potential tout talking back and forth to himself.
    Exactly, I have never seen every person in a thread be so polite to each other and form complete sentences.

    Way too obvious.
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  23. #23
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Listen pal, sherry and I ran all of the IP’s in this thread and all of the posters in here are from the same address except for me.

    Now unless you guys are all roommates this would lead us to believe that Dave has multiple usernames. The only way for you guys and Dave to prove otherwise will be separate rooster pics with a yellow post it attached to each said rooster with your sbr username on it.

    Until that happens consider yourselves all under investigation with bans looming.
    Needless to say, no one here has anything to fear about being under investigation. Had MickeyMan been seriously conducting one, he could not help but become aware that PB is in its 4th year of daily publication, this being the first at SBR, and has been published at SBR since the middle of July.

    As noted earlier in the thread, one of the reasons why the first SBR format originally called for the Facebook posting platform was to avoid these kinds of posts. It wasn't as user-friendly in terms of posting information, however, especially when it came to stat tables and to linking out to other sources of info. Those safeguards against folks coming in with graffiti are not in play in this format, since there is more freedom for anyone to come in and post whatever they choose; the only thing that we hope for is that posters don't waste the time of those who come here for genuine purposes.

    No one, I repeat no one, is under investigation by SBR.
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  24. #24
    The Prick
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Exactly, I have never seen every person in a thread be so polite to each other and form complete sentences.

    Way too obvious.
    Go to a field an sit on it ya fuggin vaginabond. this threads a safe space

    daves under my protection

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  25. #25
    puffkit
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    make it stop Dave i'm having covers flashbacks!

  26. #26
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by deltonmyers View Post
    And the one big reason for not moving to this format is now starting show itself.
    We tried. For those that do want to have serious conversations this format makes it a bit easier, but it appears as though there may be times at which hip boots are needed to wade through those that would try to turn it into a cesspool.

  27. #27
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterose4hof View Post
    This might be a useful navigating tool for others so I thought I'd share.

    Toward the top of the page is the blue navigation bar. Currently the "Forum" tab is grey. Under "Forum" you should see "Sports Betting > Point Blank - David Malinsky". If you click on the "Point Blank - David Malinsky" part it takes you to the archives of all previous threads.
    Thanks - on top of all the betting insight, this is an invaluable resource for food and music, and hopefully to some for beer as well.

  28. #28
    MickeyMan
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Prick View Post
    Go to a field an sit on it ya fuggin vaginabond. this threads a safe space

    daves under my protection
    I always knew you were a faggg but figured you were a top. Guess not
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  29. #29
    deltonmyers
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    Are there any specific reasons that money has come in on Florida today? I realize that S. Carolina is not the type of team you want to trust to go and get a margin and that Florida was supposed to have much more talent coming into the season, but it looks like they have flat out quit. Who is backing Florida still that is causing this line to drop and is -5.5 a go number for SC?

  30. #30
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by deltonmyers View Post
    Are there any specific reasons that money has come in on Florida today? I realize that S. Carolina is not the type of team you want to trust to go and get a margin and that Florida was supposed to have much more talent coming into the season, but it looks like they have flat out quit. Who is backing Florida still that is causing this line to drop and is -5.5 a go number for SC?
    There were a lot of folks, including me, that knocked the Florida line down last weekend, but I endured that lesson and am not a part of the gang this time. It may be that no matter what Randy Shannon and the other coaches do there just isn't enough veteran leadership on the field, so many upperclassmen having been lost to injuries. They were flat and lifeless from the get-go at Missouri, and off of that game I don't know what would necessarily change the flow this week. Having said that, SC only shows small on my stuff, not getting serious until -4.

  31. #31
    Point Blank
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    Let's give some genuine props out where they are due - one of the most respected shops in the industry has put out a full board of NCAA Hoops totals for Friday from the get-go a few moments ago, including the added games. Even with rather low limits, that is an extremely brave thing to do, and it will be interesting to see how far some of these prices move over the next few hours.

  32. #32
    spindoc932
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Exactly, I have never seen every person in a thread be so polite to each other and form complete sentences.

    Way too obvious.
    Lol what a sad troll...

  33. #33
    dtp
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Exactly, I have never seen every person in a thread be so polite to each other and form complete sentences.

    Way too obvious.


    This. And the first 3 people who replied in this thread just joined SBR 2-3 days ago and all post with similar style.....hmmm

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  34. #34
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by spindoc932 View Post
    Lol what a sad troll...
    I may have to go back and brush up on Dante Alighieri, perhaps there was a circle of hell in the "Divine Comedy" were folks were forced to sit and watch others converse politely, with both dignity and a sense of purpose. I don't recollect that being there, but it has been about a decade since my last reading, and perhaps it was something that I missed. It seems that for some, it is a disturbing experience to be confronted with polite behavior.

  35. #35
    Point Blank
    Point Blank's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-06-17
    Posts: 257
    Betpoints: 199

    Quote Originally Posted by dtp View Post
    This. And the first 3 people who replied in this thread just joined SBR 2-3 days ago and all post with similar style.....hmmm
    I shouldn't have to do this again, but let me repeat one more time, and hopefully it is easy enough to grasp. Point Blank has been around for four years at a different platform, and began running on SBR in the middle of July. The entire SBR archive, every article and every post, can be found here. You are not reading comments from folks that have "joined SBR" this week, but those that have registered for this forum because it is different from the other format, which was a Facebook-based posting system.

    We started with the Facebook platform to prevent shenanigans, since the way that it identified each poster kept the integrity level high. But there were limitations in terms of posting statistical graphs and links to outside articles that hindered what we were attempting to do. So what are the amazing "discoveries" that folks are making here, without first thinking it through? Only that those who had posted via their Facebook accounts now have to register accounts at SBR this week to post in this setting.

    I don't know how to make it any more clear than that.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-09-17 at 07:02 PM.

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