1. #36
    spindoc932
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    The Browns are going to be an interesting team in the last 4 weeks and next year. Josh Gordon was one of the best WRs when he was playing, and I really like Corey Coleman. Both seem to be back soon. The biggest thing lacking for Cleveland this year has been their WR play and consequently, their QB play. I really like how they bolstered their OL, and although their D isnt good, they are stout against the run and have a ton of young talent on D, led by Garrett. They are also going to get a top 2 pick this upcoming year

    I know the concern is that Kizer is awful, and cant play....But everyone in the world was saying the same thing about another 1st year QB last year.....Rhymes with HOFF.............By no means, do i think Clev can have a LAR type of revival in one year b/c their coach and organization are terrible, but if you put some electric WRs around a young QB, behind a very solid OL, good things can happen

  2. #37
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by spindoc932 View Post
    Dave- What are your thoughts on GB catching 6 at Chicago? Do the GB players and coaches believe at 4-4 that they can somehow , someway finish at 9-7 and make the playoffs? ....I initially though Rodgers was out for the season, but it seems like he can come back by Week 15......At 4-4 the upcoming schedule for Weeks 10 through 15 isnt bad at all:

    @Chic
    vs Balt
    @ Pitt
    vs TB
    @Clev

    Chic is one team that wont have a major advantage at QB over GB. This might be an ugly one btw as we might not see 200 yards combined passing in this game.

    There are obvious concerns with backing GB here though. I feel the bye week will help Trubinsky alot and the short week cant help Hundley. Chic also runs the ball alot better than GB and have a better D......I guess a deep dive into GB's morale and psyche is needed to figure out where they stand mentally and motivationally.............I went back at Chic has only covered 6 of their last 23 as a favorite
    I will at least be paying attention to the news out of Green Bay at +6, but the numbers only show value at +7, a recognition of just how limited the Packers are without Rodgers. But one of the keys in terms of looking at the dog is that John Fox will help to keep them in the game, playing ultra-conservatively to just try to grind the game out. It is that notion that I will be sorting through, especially if the full game line rises high enough to make a +3.5 available for the first half. Figure Mike McCarthy to be conservative as well, trying to ease Hundley into the game and keep it close, which will make the early stages a temptation.

  3. #38
    jakedittler
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    I have these written down as well. Do you think that maybe around Friday (once you have got your fill on anything you had in your sights on) we could, as a group, go over these teams and see if any of them look like a real nice fit regarding these circumstances? Maybe they are on the road for a second straight week, faced a ton of plays the previous week, or are struggling vs the run and now face a strong running team with the possibility of being pushed around like blocking sleds. I think some of these could bring some real nice discussions to the group.

  4. #39
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by spindoc932 View Post
    The Browns are going to be an interesting team in the last 4 weeks and next year. Josh Gordon was one of the best WRs when he was playing, and I really like Corey Coleman. Both seem to be back soon. The biggest thing lacking for Cleveland this year has been their WR play and consequently, their QB play. I really like how they bolstered their OL, and although their D isnt good, they are stout against the run and have a ton of young talent on D, led by Garrett. They are also going to get a top 2 pick this upcoming year

    I know the concern is that Kizer is awful, and cant play....But everyone in the world was saying the same thing about another 1st year QB last year.....Rhymes with HOFF.............By no means, do i think Clev can have a LAR type of revival in one year b/c their coach and organization are terrible, but if you put some electric WRs around a young QB, behind a very solid OL, good things can happen
    Coleman looks like he will be a go this week, which does add a needed element, and I would not be surprised to see the Browns break through and win a couple of games - they are only being out-gained by .2 net yards per play, but a -13 To differential has been disastrous. That comes with bad QB play, of course, but Coleman being on the field brings another option and can mitigate that a bit. Matt Landed and I just finished recording this week's "House of Yards", which will be point tomorrow morning, and there was some discussion about Cleveland that is along the lines of what you are projecting, with particular value to be found in the Sunday setting at Detroit.

  5. #40
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    I have these written down as well. Do you think that maybe around Friday (once you have got your fill on anything you had in your sights on) we could, as a group, go over these teams and see if any of them look like a real nice fit regarding these circumstances? Maybe they are on the road for a second straight week, faced a ton of plays the previous week, or are struggling vs the run and now face a strong running team with the possibility of being pushed around like blocking sleds. I think some of these could bring some real nice discussions to the group.
    Those fatigue elements are prime factors this week, so it will be difficult to not be talking about them. There should be plenty to come from on that front...

  6. #41
    jakedittler
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    (As I'm rubbing my hands together) I'm very much looking forward to it. If memory serves me right, this theme was brought along last year by some masterful words from Leonard Cohen, with reference to a cold November.

  7. #42
    benjy21
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    Adding to what Benjy first touched upon, I went through all the schedules to see which teams finish the last 8,9,10,11 weeks without a bye, or who had no bye at all. I'll skip 8 weeks for now because essentially, most are only 3-4 weeks off a bye. But can be revisited at a later date. I also tracked records as a team that's 8-1 is much less susceptible to fatigue than a team that's 2-7. Also have a few odd ones that need a little explanation that I'll do at the end.

    Last 9 weeks without a bye-

    BYU (2-8)
    fresno st (6-3) playing for Mt west title
    ole miss (4-5) grueling sec schedule with little depth vs the run
    N Illinois (6-3)
    Illinois (2-7) tough big 10 schedule in bad weather
    iowa st (6-3) up and coming program. Not as detrimental IMO.
    K St (5-4)
    marshall (6-3)
    minnesota (4-5)
    S Miss (5-4)
    wisky (9-0) national title hopes
    coastal Carolina (1-8) could be a great candidate

    last 10 without a bye-

    arkansas (4-5) again SEC grind.
    E Michigan (3-6)
    FSU (3-5) really disappointing season. One to watch
    Ga southern (0-8) a couple of mid week games though with extra days
    indiana (3-6)
    kent st (2-7)
    Maryland (4-5) Been talked about a lot. Much smaller team in grinding big 10 schedule
    miami (8-0) national championship hunt.
    Michigan st (7-2)
    unlv (4-5) depth has been an issue

    Last 11 without a bye-

    UCONN (3-6) first year at a much quicker tempo? Could wear down even more
    texas tech (4-5) always up near the top in plays faced on D

    Interesting situations schedule wise-

    colorado 11 straight games to start the season. This week is game 11
    ucf (8-0) had 3 weeks of rest from game 1 to game 2. Plus in the hunt for multiple scenarios

    No bye at all-

    USC (8-2) but very depth shy
    Washington st (8-2)

    I think a few of these could lead to some possible plays. Especially if we match them up with team that have faced an extra amount of plays, who are bad vs the run. Interim coaches and other factors.
    Excellent work Jake!

    Another one to add to the list is Air Force (4-5). Their bye was Sept 9th, so it will be 9 weeks without a bye when they face Wyoming on Saturday.

    In cross referencing this list with the worn down defenses lists, we get the following candidates for playing against:

    UCONN
    UNLV*
    Maryland
    Texas Tech
    Ole Miss
    BYU*
    Miami
    Indiana

    *UNLV and BYU play each other this week

    As noted, Miami plays Notre Dame this week and is in pursuit of a National Championship, so energy should not be an issue. However, if the Fighting Irish get up by 2 or more scores, there could be a nice 2nd half play as the Miami dreams get crushed and fatigue sets in for the Hurricane defense. If this scenario plays out, the Miami defense may "let go of the rope" in the 2nd half from the effects of the Notre Dame offensive line and the punishing ground game.

  8. #43
    ligastar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spindoc932 View Post
    The Browns are going to be an interesting team in the last 4 weeks and next year. Josh Gordon was one of the best WRs when he was playing, and I really like Corey Coleman. Both seem to be back soon. The biggest thing lacking for Cleveland this year has been their WR play and consequently, their QB play. I really like how they bolstered their OL, and although their D isnt good, they are stout against the run and have a ton of young talent on D, led by Garrett. They are also going to get a top 2 pick this upcoming year

    I know the concern is that Kizer is awful, and cant play....But everyone in the world was saying the same thing about another 1st year QB last year.....Rhymes with HOFF.............By no means, do i think Clev can have a LAR type of revival in one year b/c their coach and organization are terrible, but if you put some electric WRs around a young QB, behind a very solid OL, good things can happen
    spindoc: You bring up some good points in this post. As you said, probably not a LARM type revival next season, but could we see a push towards 6 or 7 wins? Certainly. Also of note, CLE is lined up to have the projected 7th overall pick (via HOU) in the 2018 draft. The Garrett pick looks like a home run (it was hard to screw it up really). Might CLE add 2 more key pieces in the first 7 picks of next year's draft?

    This is my first post in the SBR Forums. I want to say thanks to all the informative posters here (w/ a special shoutout to Dave). I hope to contribute where I can add some value, which will likely occur in CBB discussions.
    Last edited by ligastar; 11-09-17 at 04:12 PM. Reason: replaced Point Blank with Dave.

  9. #44
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    (As I'm rubbing my hands together) I'm very much looking forward to it. If memory serves me right, this theme was brought along last year by some masterful words from Leonard Cohen, with reference to a cold November.
    We have just passed the one-year anniversary of the death of Cohen, one of those life moments that will remain etched in the memory because I was listening to Cohen's "You Want it Darker" CD, which had just been released a couple of weeks earlier, on my way to meet an industry associate for dinner, when someone passed the news to me. It may be appropriate for something from Cohen to make the Friday jukebox as a tribute, perhaps something from the tribute show held in his honor in Montreal earlier this week.

  10. #45
    jakedittler
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    Uconn was one that really stood out to me. A first year with an uptempo offense. Long time without a bye. Defense facing an extra amount of plays. That one really stood out. Ole Miss, Texas tech and Maryland were a couple that really peaked my interest as well. All 3 had a little side note as to why they were on the radar. I could also see Miami in the 2nd half like you said. If the dream starts to fade. Especially against the most physical line most likely in college football.

  11. #46
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    Uconn was one that really stood out to me. A first year with an uptempo offense. Long time without a bye. Defense facing an extra amount of plays. That one really stood out. Ole Miss, Texas tech and Maryland were a couple that really peaked my interest as well. All 3 had a little side note as to why they were on the radar. I could also see Miami in the 2nd half like you said. If the dream starts to fade. Especially against the most physical line most likely in college football.
    I can say that the fatigue and schedule tables bring one of the more unique settings I have encountered for them this week, yet there has been no hurry to lock in a ticket because the market keeps running the other way. Hence no specific mention here yet, but I will make it a feature part of the Friday edition.

  12. #47
    jjgold
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  13. #48
    spindoc932
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    Quote Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
    spindoc: You bring up some good points in this post. As you said, probably not a LARM type revival next season, but could we see a push towards 6 or 7 wins? Certainly. Also of note, CLE is lined up to have the projected 7th overall pick (via HOU) in the 2018 draft. The Garrett pick looks like a home run (it was hard to screw it up really). Might CLE add 2 more key pieces in the first 7 picks of next year's draft?


    This is my first post in the SBR Forums. I want to say thanks to all the informative posters here (w/ a special shoutout to Dave). I hope to contribute where I can add some value, which will likely occur in CBB discussions.
    welcome liga......great points about Clev draft picks...... As the lovable loser team of the NFL, it would be fun to see them build and become a team who can win some games next year......Look at how bad Jax was, and now they are everyones darling and you cant not love their D..............

    also, you should love this forum.....as most of us can attest, its the best part of the day waiting for Daves daily thread Monday through Friday at around 11 am EST....He is very smart and very generous to answer everyones questions...Only caveat, you cant ask "Who do you like this week"

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