1. #1
    Point Blank
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    What a 'Bettor Better Know' - NCAA Week #10

    What a ‘Bettor Better Know’ for NCAA Week #10, and you should all know by now it just isn’t as easy as Style Points cashing tickets…Clawson and Babers continue to impress, Price continues to snooze…

    Point Blank – November 6, 2017

    Saturday brought some stunning results across the NCAA landscape, including a scoreboard from Iowa City that was an all-timer off of my grading, Iowa 55 Ohio State 24. But the tracking got interesting before the first kicker’s foot touched leather, a busy marketplace creating a frenzy of trading that created an array of opportunities for a serious shopper.

    Did a few of those moves have a connection? I am going to propose that they may well have, because it is something that has shown in the past and may again in the future, even if it was notion that burned holes into some of the Saturday pockets. And since there is another long Monday read ahead and some background is called for to help you glide through, let’s connect the dots.

    Was a sizable portion of the betting market looking for an easy path this past week, focusing on the one-loss teams in the Top 10 of the first Committee ratings to get after style points? It would be nice if every now and then there was a simple formula to add to the bankroll but the realities of sport rarely allow for that. With Ringo Starr once again on tour with his traveling All Starr Band, having completed an eight-show gig here in Las Vegas just a week ago, let’s let them send the warning, this one an opener from Buenos Aires a couple of years ago…



    Item: Was it a “Style Fail” for the marketplace?


    Let’s examine a particular cluster of the action from Saturday because it is something I have seen before. It was written about in PB while at the old platform, the notion of whether indeed “Style Point” matter once the NCAA Committee releases their ratings for the first time, and the various one-loss teams are made aware that they have ground to make up.

    The focus goes to the one-loss group because unbeaten teams can bring a different mindset, knowing that if they just win the rest of their games margins won’t matter, and I believe that is true again – while Wisconsin was only #9 and Miami #10 last week, trailing six teams that had losses, winning out will mean having toppled several of the teams that are ahead of them.

    First let’s go to the list, the five teams in the Top 10 that could have been considered to be on the hunt for style points, not counting #5 Oklahoma because the Sooners were playing #11 Oklahoma State, hence both teams treating the game the same way.


    Team Open Close
    Notre Dame -14 -16
    Clemson -7 -10
    Ohio State -15.5 -21
    Penn State -7.5 -10
    TCU -7 -8


    The first four teams on the list draw substantial action but TCU really did not, the closing line vs. Texas getting inflated towards the end by the news that QB Sam Ehlinger would not be cleared to play by the Longhorns. That game was balanced for much of the week, the bandwagon for Tom Herman’s ATS record as an underdog a part of that.

    Style points appeared to be a consideration in the marketplace, but did it manifest on the field? There was only one game that brought an opportunity to provide evidence, and even that one ran counter to the expectations – Notre Dame had command throughout vs. Wake Forest, but 41-16 late in the third quarter came back to 48-37, the Demon Deacons putting together TD drives of 75, 70 and 90 yards on their final three possessions.

    I’ll get back to the game in a moment, because it could at least come close to passing one test of the Style Points notion, but let me revert to something that was brought up in discussion in the weekend comments thread (which, by the way, brought some great contributions from the readers), regarding Penn State/Michigan State, the focus being the Spartans going into pocket at +10.

    Here’s the gist – the debate about whether coaches will actively pursue style points for their playoff ambitions is one thing, but even if true they have to be in a position to do it. I noted in the thread that I don’t bring those considerations until play unless the line is -17 or higher, that point at which one team may have enough control of the proceedings to possibly exercise it. Lower than that and the focus has to go on merely winning the game.

    Penn State didn’t win, because Michigan State is a talented team with an excellent coach that brought a real challenge. Clemson almost didn’t win, because the Tigers were up against an N.C. State team that knew they were capable of pulling the upset, having failed on a chip-shot field goal of having done that in Death Valley last October, after they had played the eventual national champions dead even on the field.






    The situations weren’t there for any of the one-loss teams that drew heavy money to be in control of the proceedings. Even Iowa brought a lot of confidence to the table, which I will get to in just a bit, but suffice to say that betting on a team because of any supposed need to run up a score should only be considered if they will genuinely be in position to do it.

    Yet even if they are in position, there can be other circumstances in play…


    Item: Let’s go back to South Bend

    Why did I freeze Wake Forest/Notre Dame above at 41-16 in the third quarter and not 48-23 in the fourth, before noting the closing stretch? Because after the Fighting Irish got to 41, QB Brandon Wimbush, and the offensive key cogs did not go back on the field again, lead RB Josh Adams having already left early with an injury, while it was a reserve defensive unit giving up most of those late points. It isn’t easy to get to exact snap counts this early in the week, but it says enough if we note that Notre Dame used 60 players, and had 23 make at least one tackle on defense.

    Brian Kelly could afford to be confident in the grand scheme, of course, because his team was sitting at #3, and he can almost treat it as though they are unbeaten – sweeping out will mean quality wins at Miami and Stanford, so keeping his players fresh for those games, including facing the Hurricanes on the road this week, was more important than getting a bigger margin.

    There is a flip side to this equation regarding Wake Forest that also matters, but since it is off the opening theme a bit I will save it for lower on the page.

    The other one-loss teams that drew Saturday money never had a moment for style points to matter, not even TCU, which was caught up in a grinder most of the way (the Horned Frogs only gained 343 yards). Let’s move on over to Iowa City next. I wrote in the lead that Iowa’s win was historic on my grading because of an exercise that I undergo every day, and one that most of you should get into the habit of because it is not only invigorating, but it also helps to put the outcomes of sport into a necessary perspective.


    Item: ”How Much Would You Have Lost If…”

    And here it is, a fun and easy game to play. First take the time to go through every result from the betting board each day, which is a good discipline anyway. You don’t have to dive deep if time does not allow. Then look for the outcome that was the furthest from your mindset for the sport at hand, and ponder how much you would have bet, and subsequently lost, if the line was set near that outcome.

    Iowa/Ohio State is near the all-time top for me in college football; had I been offered the Buckeyes +30.5 prior to kickoff, it would have been an expensive lesson. It wouldn’t have broken me, because this very exercise can help prevent that from happening, but it does beg a deeper dive – what on earth happened for that game to fall 52 points off of the closing spread?

    There were components beforehand that added up to at least allow the Hawkeyes to be in the game. There is a legacy of success on that field under Kirk Ferentz, and most of the current cast of players could bring the confidence of having beaten Michigan 14-13 as +24 last November, and taking Penn State to the last play before falling 21-19 as +13 earlier this season. Meanwhile there was reason to anticipate Ohio State being drained after what was both a physically and emotionally exhilarating win over Penn State the previous Saturday. But what in the hell turned it from Iowa having a chance to Iowa running away with the game?





    Yes, turnovers played a big part in the margin, J.T. Barrett going from that brilliant fourth quarter vs. Penn State to a game in which he threw four interceptions, while the Hawkeyes did not turn the ball over in 70 snaps. But beyond that there was a remarkable simplicity that both coaches and players repeatedly brought up in the post-mortem. Let’s start with Kirk Ferentz: “I thought we blocked for the first time like you need to if you’re going to be on the varsity.”

    And from junior guard James Daniels: "We practice hard every week, but this week just focused on fundamentals because we knew we were playing against the type of players that, if you had your elbow out on the block, they were going to throw you. We knew when the game came that we’d have to focus on our technique, and that’s what we did."

    A ground game that was only averaging 101.2 yards through the first five Big 10 games generated 243, and the leverage they had at the line of scrimmage was dynamic as the game progressed, the Hawkeyes going on a 31-0 run after it had been tied at 17-17. They gained confidence as the momentum built, and in truth it did not look like the Buckeyes played with a lot of heart on defense as it was getting away.

    It is the Ohio State side of the equation that will command more of my focus this week; can a group that had their sights set on something much higher find a new focus? The only time the fifth-year seniors have played a regular season game when out of the playoff picture was the closer at Michigan in 2015, the one game we could be assured that they would bring their best effort regardless of any other motivations. This is an entirely new path for them.


    Item: Wake Forest made plays without Greg Dortch


    Last Monday there were a lot of good things said about the job that Dave Clawson was doing at Wake Forest, and as such it is important to do the proper grading on both sides of the equation from South Bend on Saturday. Yes, the Demon Deacons were in against an opponent that had such physical edges there wasn’t a lot that the coaches could tactically do to close the gaps, but don’t attribute Wake’s showing through the back-door solely to Kelly and the Fighting Irish letting up – despite being out-manned Clawson had his team go on the attack the entire game.

    I did not expect that. One of the keys in tracking the Deacons in last Monday’s edition was noting that freshman WR Greg Dortch had opened the door for the offense to play with pace and be more aggressive, Dortch’s season ending to injury after he recorded 53 catches for 722 yards and nine TDs. He had more than twice as many receptions as any other player. Yet Clawson had his team play with the same pace without Dortch, snapping the ball 88 times at Notre Dame despite the gap in talent. That is the sign of a coach working more towards developing his team than merely keeping an individual game closer, which I like. The confidence gained from those late scoring drives can be significant going forward, even if they came against Fighting Irish reserves.

    What does confidence mean? When you believe in yourself you can use defeat as motivation to get better, and there is something from Wake LB Grant Dawson that made the files, because it shows the level Clawson has elevated them to. Dawson and the defense could have been shattered, Notre Dame having moved the ball at will, but even after that dismal showing by the unit he plays on, Dawson brought a proper perspective on doing what is needed to improve going forward:

    “A lot of it is going to be locking in on the details and holding yourself accountable for each assignment, every play. Because, as we saw, it just takes one missed assignment and the ball will go 80 yards for a touchdown. That’s going to be the big message is just being accountable, holding everybody else accountable, knowing your job, knowing your responsibilities, knowing your assignments every single play, with an extreme amount of focus.”


    They are going to need that focus this week because the challenge doesn’t get much easier, having to head to the Carrier Dome to take on Syracuse…


    Item: Syracuse is 0-4 SU on the road, but 4-0 ATS, and 4-0 SU in the second half

    I expected Dino Babers to bring better energy to a Syracuse program that needed it, but was skeptical of his abilities to truly be a head coach, and not just an offensive coordinator with energy. Hence the 2017 season has been a revelation, the improvements by the Orange being across the board, and not just the offense shifting to a higher gear.

    What stands out the most is something that may not be properly appreciated across the marketplace, the grit the team has played with on the road. Few teams around the country have faced a tougher slate of trips, Syracuse play at LSU, North Carolina State, Miami and Florida State, and while there is an 0-4 collar attached in the standings, it was a 4-0 ATS on the betting boards, and I bring the markets into play because in the last two trips there was substantial anti-Syracuse money. Perhaps the most important item is this:

    Second Half Scoring
    Syracuse 23 LSU 21
    Syracuse 18 N.C. State 7
    Syracuse 16 Miami 14
    Syracuse 10 Florida State 6



    One of the concerns I had when first grading the Babers era was whether or not playing uptempo would expose his team to getting worn down on the road, the program seemingly not have enough depth. That has not been the case. There appears to be just enough talent to hang around, but also that talent playing with plenty of energy and attitude. It also leads to a more delicate grading of the Babers play calling at Florida State on Saturday than I had made while watching the game.





    Trailing 21-14 in the waning seconds of the first half, Babers opted to keep his offense on the field to go for a touchdown, rather than kick the field goal to close the margin to 21-17. Eric Dungey’s pass attempt was incomplete, and as the game flow went on those were three extremely valuable points left off the scoreboard. But for Babers in Tallahassee, much like Clawson in South Bend, the play calling was more about developing a program than getting the best possible scoreboard outcome on that day:

    "We want to score touchdowns. First of all, it's a hard angle. We're closer than what you think. When the ball is that close, it's a hard angle on the placekicker. …You go in 21-21, it's a different game. If we're tied at halftime, the odds greatly go in our favor that we're going to win the game based off the things that we've done in the second half as a football team. We went for the touchdown. We went for the win."


    How does that permeate the locker room? Let’s go to WR Erv Phillips - "I actually love it. As a player, you want to play for a coach who trusts his guys. I'm going for it 100 percent of the time."

    Syracuse beat Clemson, and was trailing unbeaten Miami by a single point on the road late in the fourth quarter. Yet the Orange also face a difficult closing stretch that might not even see them qualify for a bowl bid. Should that happen, the marketplace may not fully recognize how much improvement this program has made.


    Item: On those Northwestern OT’s, and how much does the plus of winning mitigate against fatigue

    As we get into November, tracking the fatigue levels across the various teams plays a major part in my handicapping processes. But much like just about every aspect of evaluating football, there are no easy assumptions. Northwestern becomes a prime case study on that front going forward.

    The Wildcats have played three consecutive games that have gone to overtime, a total of five extra periods in all, and it has meant the defense being on the field for 221 plays in the process. That play count also needs to be magnified because of the intensity level in the latter stages of each game, starters on the field longer than usual.

    But now the curveball – Pat Fitzgerald’s team won all three of the games. Because they will be favored in each of their three remaining matchups it has them on track for a potential 9-3 campaign, and a nice bowl trip to a warm place.

    How much does positive energy come into play in adjusting the ratings? That is a key reading-between-the-lines exercise for me this week, and is a good one for all handicappers to process through. Does the fact that each of those draining games ended with a positive outcome bring an antidote against fatigue?

    I am also wondering of TaQuon Marshall is going to need some kind of tool against getting worn down in the weeks to come…


    Item: Does Georgia Tech’s option need more options

    For a QB that didn’t even get announced as the starter until just a few days before the Yellow Jackets opened against Tennessee, Paul Johnson repeatedly saying that he had a close competition among four different players at the position (was he playing possum?), Marshall has had an outstanding season. He has compiled 870 yards and 14 touchdowns overland, and while not exactly having pin-point accuracy through the air, which can be an issue for a run-first QB, there have been 667 passing yards with six TDs vs. only two interceptions.

    But now a potential problem arises. Marshall is carrying a major load because Tech doesn’t have a lot of depth at the skill positions, so much so that on Saturday he had more carries than all other players combined. That isn’t bad if a QB is a dynamic player, but it can become a problem if that QB is also only 5-10/185, and has taken a lot of hits over the past few months.





    For the full season Marshall has 188 carries and KirVonte Benson 150. No other player has more than 27. The lack of depth extends to the WR corps, where Ricky Jeune has 20 catches, but no one else more than three. Now Marshall has to keep working that load against three major challenges down the stretch, Virginia Tech this week, then a Duke defense that has done a terrific tactical job against option football (something I will make a lead topic later in the week), before closing out vs. Georgia, which may be the best defense in the nation.

    Time to set some perspective. Even though Tech has only played eight games, what would have been a tough clash with Central Florida canceled, let’s look at the number of carries Marshall has had, compared to the full season load that usually comes from the QB position in Johnson’s offense:

    2012 Tevin Washington 177
    2013 Vlad Lee 182
    2014 Justin Thomas 190
    2015 Justin Thomas 145
    2016 Justin Thomas 137
    2017 TaQuon Marshall 188



    Get the picture? Marshall has been good, and the Yellow Jackets have needed for him to be good, but he will also be entering uncharted territory for a workload at that position.

    At the other end of the spectrum, time to bring back another running story because no one playing offense for UTEP will run the risk of wearing down the rest of this season


    Item: The Price was right for another UTEP Total

    Last Monday there was a take here on how Mike Price’s approach as the interim HC at UTEP was resembling more a kindly uncle, or perhaps even a grandfather, taking a snooze after a heavy Thanksgiving meal. There isn’t any real sign of the Miners adjusting or playing with energy, and instead the focus seems to be just getting the games finished as quickly as possible, and fulfilling the schedule obligations.

    Saturday brought more of the same, and there was a bargain Total available at kickoff, the number elevated from 47 to 50 at Middle Tennessee State because of the return of QB Brent Stockstill for the Blue Raiders. Yet on the field it was another ho-hum in which the home team rolled 30-3, and the closing stretch went by quickly. UTEP did not get a first down on any of the last three drives, and MTS killed off the final 8:26 on the final possession.

    Part of the contractual obligation is for Price to meet with the media afterwards, and this was the best he could do: "There was no timing on offense. The offense was off-sync really, really bad, like they've never practiced it before. I'm not sure what we need to do, but the way we are doing it is not working. … They blitzed us, they got to us, they rattled the quarterback, they rattled the coaches, they rattled the offensive line.”

    The run is now 4-0 to the Under in the games coached by Price, finishing a collective 71 points below the market projections, and in that span the Miners have only snapped the ball 218 times. That is 54.5 per game, and to add perspective, for the full season the next slowest team in the nation is Stanford at 59.7.

    There was an entirely different pace from East Carolina while playing from behind at Houston on Saturday, and it begs for some clarification…


    Item: You can’t just do a quick glance on East Carolina/Houston

    Saturday brought the usual assortment of oddities into the grading of the results, and one of the box scores that mandates a deeper look comes from Houston’s 52-27 win over East Carolina, the Cougars covering as -23. It might appear that they were fortunate to get that result off of a quick glance, the underdogs Pirates leading 32-19 in first downs and 504-472 in total offense, but once again the peculiarities of the game flows of modern football come into play.

    East Carolina got off 98 snaps, including 74 pass attempts, to just 48 for Houston. That is a rather amazing disparity. But to properly understand the game you need to put at the very top of the grading what the teams did with their opportunities. The Cougars averaged 9.8 yards per play, while allowing just 5.1, a substantial domination of the game. Hence there was nothing fluky about the scoreboard, and even the play counts don’t create any alarm going forward – the Houston defense gets a needed bye after taking on 191 snaps the past two weeks.


    Item: Yes I will address Lane Kiffin, but at least I have saved it for last

    I got a chuckle out of the social media storm that erupted after Lane Kiffin’s end-game in Florida International’s 30-25 win over Marshall on Friday night, that late intentional safety not only having pointspread impact, but Kiffin having fun with it afterwards. Those that fell for the bait deserve the pain of being hooked; Kiffin is savvy at doing things like this, and in truth it is one of the ways that he connects well to young players, which will make a difference on the recruiting trail.




    Here is what the handicapper does need to do with that sequence – throw it out. It began with the Owls having the ball at their 43-yard line with 2:30 remaining, and Kiffin chose to have Jeff Driskell take extended drops behind kneeling down, losing 19 yards on the first three snaps, before taking the safety on the fourth play, a loss of 24 more yards.

    All the official stat tracking services will do is chart those plays as rushing losses for FAU, and solid plays by the Marshall defense, but they were nothing of the sort. All they are going to do is clog up your data-base with misinformation that does not help you in the grading of either team.

    And your daily does of SportsBIT...

    One of the other projects I am working on with SBR is the daily SportsBIT show, and you can see the Monday edition right here -


    You can find the Point Blank archive here.
    And if you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as in unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-06-17 at 03:29 PM.

  2. #2
    Point Blank
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    OK guys we are going to try a different format this week, so that it will be easier to track your comments as they come in. Please let us know if you like this, and which of the formats works best - this is meant to be your place, so the more you can help in the design process the better it will be.

  3. #3
    Champthinks
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    I think format appears to be a little better .
    Duke handles Army option is a good thing .Army off big win against rival .let down spot.
    Don't think u gave enough emphasis in regard to the let down situation Oh. St. And We Are .were in to account for the result . I am not smart enough or maybe just too cautious to have gone dog money line .But damn these post super bowl games are there for the taking every year .

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Lol

    If you know anything about gambling. Spread covers come down to a pure guess all these write ups look great but thatís all they are

    Bald
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    of Myself -jjgold

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  5. #5
    goombah
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    Think this format better as well, best part previously was the discussions that came. Looks like jjgold is the resident clown.

  6. #6
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Champthinks View Post
    I think format appears to be a little better .
    Duke handles Army option is a good thing .Army off big win against rival .let down spot.
    Don't think u gave enough emphasis in regard to the let down situation Oh. St. And We Are .were in to account for the result . I am not smart enough or maybe just too cautious to have gone dog money line .But damn these post super bowl games are there for the taking every year .
    I didn't want to overstate the Ohio State/Penn State settings too much because they were already talked about across the weekend thread, both favorites being drastically over-priced at kickoff. What will be so fascinating is to see how much energy the Buckeyes show between now and the game vs. Michigan - this is a team that has been accustomed to every snap of the ball having an impact on their championship hopes across the careers of the seniors, except for the meeting vs. the Wolverines in 2015 (which they were going to play hard in anyway), and what happens when that motivation disappears? There is still the fight to get into the Big 10 Championship game, but is that enough of a target after the big dreams dissipate?

  7. #7
    Point Blank
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    And one of the things that we can also do here is post SportsBIT when it is ready each day -

    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-06-17 at 03:28 PM.

  8. #8
    Champthinks
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    David ..in regard to PSU I think that 4 hours in the visiting locker room during the lightening pause was a factor . Haven't seen much chatter on that any where but it did matter . Big edge to waiting it out for the home locker room, Psu was up 14 -7 before the pause .

  9. #9
    gauchojake
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    Did I miss something?

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 142 pts


  10. #10
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Champthinks View Post
    David ..in regard to PSU I think that 4 hours in the visiting locker room during the lightening pause was a factor . Haven't seen much chatter on that any where but it did matter . Big edge to waiting it out for the home locker room, Psu was up 14 -7 before the pause .
    To the credit of James Franklin, he refused to use it as an excuse, even though it would have logically been more of a negative impact to a visiting team in an uncomfortable environment, especially because there was no way of knowing how long the delay was going to be once it set in. I thought Penn State still accounted themselves well when play did resume, in what the eye test showed to be a well-played game on both sides, a high level of football all the way around.

  11. #11
    jakedittler
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    I agree. Much better. This format will save me a lot of time. Checking the reply balloon and scrolling through the entire thing every 5 mins trying to see if the was a new comment took up a lot of time. It was so strange how replies were randomly place all throughout the scroll, rather than going in order oldest to most recent. Hopefully this format follows that sequence.

  12. #12
    spindoc932
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    Different format....Lets see how this goes

  13. #13
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakedittler View Post
    I agree. Much better. This format will save me a lot of time. Checking the reply balloon and scrolling through the entire thing every 5 mins trying to see if the was a new comment took up a lot of time. It was so strange how replies were randomly place all throughout the scroll, rather than going in order oldest to most recent. Hopefully this format follows that sequence.
    As part of this every aspect is up for "group vote", and that includes formatting and font size for the original post. In particular for those who read on a mobile device, let me know if the font size plays well to the various screens that will be involved.

  14. #14
    jakedittler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    As part of this every aspect is up for "group vote", and that includes formatting and font size for the original post. In particular for those who read on a mobile device, let me know if the font size plays well to the various screens that will be involved.
    i was unable to get to it on my phone. Only after I clicked on "full site" version was I able to get to it. So there is a major flaw in the mobile version. Just not sure what it is. But the full site version is definitely better now compared to the original. Especially the comments part.

  15. #15
    vegasvee
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    Dave,

    Thanks for all your great work. Love reading every morning as well as listening to the pod and your weekly appearances on vsin. Always well-reasoned and gives me something to think about. Listening has helped enhance my approach and continue to learn from you.

    Wondering what you are thinking on today's MNF action. Interesting spot with GB off the bye and Detroit coming into town after a tough loss last week where they racked up tons of yardage. I am leaning to Detroit here with one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. I don't think a bye and extra prep is enough to convince me that hundley can get it done if he hasn't picked it up in 3 seasons now. Detroit should be able to limit jones and rush d and force hundley to beat them which I don't think is in his arsenal. He of the career ~ 4 ypa.

    Would enjoy some of your thoughts.

  16. #16
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by vegasvee View Post
    Dave,

    Thanks for all your great work. Love reading every morning as well as listening to the pod and your weekly appearances on vsin. Always well-reasoned and gives me something to think about. Listening has helped enhance my approach and continue to learn from you.

    Wondering what you are thinking on today's MNF action. Interesting spot with GB off the bye and Detroit coming into town after a tough loss last week where they racked up tons of yardage. I am leaning to Detroit here with one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. I don't think a bye and extra prep is enough to convince me that Hundley can get it done if he hasn't picked it up in 3 seasons now. Detroit should be able to limit jones and rush d and force hundley to beat them which I don't think is in his arsenal. He of the career ~ 4 ypa.

    Would enjoy some of your thoughts.
    My thoughts aren't going to be of much help to anyone in this one. One of the things that I want with a road favorite is the ability to finish near the goal line, and one of the issues mentioned in the Tuesday edition is that a weakness in the red zone may be logical for the Detroit offense, and not just a few random rolls of the dice - they just don't have a power RB, or a big physical WR, as a go-to play for those settings, which may make them a bit inefficient all season (even in putting together a good run in the standings in 2016 they were below average in the category).

    Green Bay now not only gets added time to tweak round Hundley, but also the OL being about as healthy as it has been since the start of the season. I am not high on Hundley as a prospect, but it could mean some game planning difficulty for the Lions, who may see some wrinkles here that were not available on any game video to this point. So I don't mind being neutral and just doing a lot of tracking on this one, in particular looking to see if the Packers have indeed worked their schemes for Hundley's individual talents (as limited as they may be).

  17. #17
    benjy21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    My thoughts aren't going to be of much help to anyone in this one. One of the things that I want with a road favorite is the ability to finish near the goal line, and one of the issues mentioned in the Tuesday edition is that a weakness in the red zone may be logical for the Detroit offense, and not just a few random rolls of the dice - they just don't have a power RB, or a big physical WR, as a go-to play for those settings, which may make them a bit inefficient all season (even in putting together a good run in the standings in 2016 they were below average in the category).

    Green Bay now not only gets added time to tweak round Hundley, but also the OL being about as healthy as it has been since the start of the season. I am not high on Hundley as a prospect, but it could mean some game planning difficulty for the Lions, who may see some wrinkles here that were not available on any game video to this point. So I don't mind being neutral and just doing a lot of tracking on this one, in particular looking to see if the Packers have indeed worked their schemes for Hundley's individual talents (as limited as they may be).
    For what it's worth, Huntley over 189.5 passing yards @ -115 is +EV

  18. #18
    jeffchitown
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    Iowa was an easy pick. If you know anything about Iowa games is they play up to their competition. It could be a shitty team it will be close it can be a ranked team it will be close. My friend told me dude take Ohio state they will rip Iowa apart. I said no they won't cause clearly you don't know Iowa. I told him Iowa is that weird team that can even pull off a upset. It is just what Iowa is I can't explain their weirdness but that that is how they always play. Now I will say no one expected them to stomp all over Ohio state pulling off just a small upset win would of been amazing but not unheard of.

  19. #19
    bookie
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    It isnít easy to get to exact snap counts this early in the week...
    Dave how late in the week and where can you get snap counts of individual players in particular games?

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  20. #20
    benjy21
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    Hey Dave,

    In keeping with the misguided "style points" angle in today's PB, I thought this stat was interesting:

    In College Football Playoff era, top 5 teams vs. unranked opponents: 63-94-3 (40.1%) ATS

  21. #21
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by bookie View Post
    Dave how late in the week and where can you get snap counts of individual players in particular games?
    The best that I am able to at the college level is is to go through individual team sites, in their game notes packages, which most schools begin having available on Tuesdays. Unfortunately I have not found a collective site anywhere, but if someone has I would appreciate them sending it along. Pro Football Reference has functions through which both full team counts (Green Bay is here), and individual player game by game counts can be had (Brett Hundley is here), and there is also this search function at Football Outsiders.

  22. #22
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy21 View Post
    Hey Dave,

    In keeping with the misguided "style points" angle in today's PB, I thought this stat was interesting:

    In College Football Playoff era, top 5 teams vs. unranked opponents: 63-94-3 (40.1%) ATS
    What would be particularly meaningful here are to segregate out the unbeaten teams on the list, those that are fully aware that it is just "win and move on" for them. For these teams there is a real motivation to hold back a bit, knowing that there is not only a conference championship game ahead, but also the hope of two playoff games. A 15 game season can be a grind, and the opportunity to play an unranked opponent late in the season can mean a brief respite in that process.

  23. #23
    gauchojake
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    Do you have to have a join date of 11/6/17 to post in this thread????

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  24. #24
    Ocho Cervezas
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    I like the Duke played and scooped some up at -1, my number is -3. Army coming off the big win over Air Force in a letdown spot. One would think that service academies are not as susceptible to letdowns, but I know Air Force has a terrible record the week after playing Navy as I believe the academies put a more emphasis on the games against each other, then they do versus the non military schools. Army has already locked in their bowl bid and has one mission left on their season, to beat Navy and take the Commander in Chief trophy. Duke meanwhile is coming in off a bye with extra time to prep for the option and needs this win plus one more to gain bowl eligibility.

  25. #25
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ocho Cervezas View Post
    I like the Duke played and scooped some up at -1, my number is -3. Army coming off the big win over Air Force in a letdown spot. One would think that service academies are not as susceptible to letdowns, but I know Air Force has a terrible record the week after playing Navy as I believe the academies put a more emphasis on the games against each other, then they do versus the non military schools. Army has already locked in their bowl bid and has one mission left on their season, to beat Navy and take the Commander in Chief trophy. Duke meanwhile is coming in off a bye with extra time to prep for the option and needs this win plus one more to gain bowl eligibility.
    I believe this particular win over Air Force really was different for Army, because it has been such a long frustration in that series, though their mentality will still call for less of a concentration lapse than just about any other program. The Duke side of the equation will likely be a feature point in the main area later this week, not only what David Cutcliffe and Jim Knowles have done tactically against option teams in the past, but also just how savvy they were in setting up this year's schedule, bye-Army-Georgia Tech allowing for a full seminar on option defense to be taught.

  26. #26
    Slipknot26
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Do you have to have a join date of 11/6/17 to post in this thread????
    Lmfao
    At least others noticed
    Tree Rollins speaking in 3rd person in here

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  27. #27
    benjy21
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    Hey Dave,

    Word from Nashville is that Butch Jones will be fired in the next 24 hours. Given that the team is in the middle of preparing to play Missouri, how much of an change would you make to the Tennessee power rating? I see the line is drifting up to Missouri -11. What do you see in this matchup, and would you grab some Mizzou here?

  28. #28
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by Point Blank View Post
    To the credit of James Franklin, he refused to use it as an excuse, even though it would have logically been more of a negative impact to a visiting team in an uncomfortable environment, especially because there was no way of knowing how long the delay was going to be once it set in. I thought Penn State still accounted themselves well when play did resume, in what the eye test showed to be a well-played game on both sides, a high level of football all the way around.
    The Big 10 does NOT play a high level of football. PERIOD!!! Look at all of the people like yourself that got crushed by Iowa's performance against Ohio State. If you believe what you read, you will join the vast majority of others in here who end up getting their arses handed to them by seasons end.

  29. #29
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy21 View Post
    Hey Dave,

    Word from Nashville is that Butch Jones will be fired in the next 24 hours. Given that the team is in the middle of preparing to play Missouri, how much of an change would you make to the Tennessee power rating? I see the line is drifting up to Missouri -11. What do you see in this matchup, and would you grab some Mizzou here?
    I don't have a great feel there. Tennessee won vs. Southern Miss but didn't do anything special on the field to indicate a level of enthusiasm, the offense only generating 15 first downs and 212 yards in a flat showing. But I am not sure there is necessarily a crash of energy this week, since the players have been hearing about the prospects of Jones being fired all season. I can't do much more than sit in neutral on that one.

  30. #30
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy21 View Post
    Hey Dave,

    Word from Nashville is that Butch Jones will be fired in the next 24 hours. Given that the team is in the middle of preparing to play Missouri, how much of an change would you make to the Tennessee power rating? I see the line is drifting up to Missouri -11. What do you see in this matchup, and would you grab some Mizzou here?
    Tennessee is not going to fire him until after the first of 2018. They will save a ton of money by doing so. Tennessee is not going anywhere anyway. Why people think that they are a good team is beyond me. Time to get their heads out of the Jack Daniels bottles.

  31. #31
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    The Big 10 does NOT play a high level of football. PERIOD!!! Look at all of the people like yourself that got crushed by Iowa's performance against Ohio State. If you believe what you read, you will join the vast majority of others in here who end up getting their arses handed to them by seasons end.
    To be fair, I am not sure where you are coming from with that one - there were specific discussions in the weekend thread about at what point it would become time to step in with Iowa in terms of the value point being maximized.

    Point Blank has been around SBR for several months now, with all of the articles and comments archived here. Sorting through that will have you better informed about the various ideas coming both from the lead article, and also the posters who contributed there, and now will be here as the platform gets adjusted.
    Last edited by Point Blank; 11-06-17 at 07:29 PM.
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  32. #32
    benjy21
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Tennessee is not going to fire him until after the first of 2018. They will save a ton of money by doing so. Tennessee is not going anywhere anyway. Why people think that they are a good team is beyond me. Time to get their heads out of the Jack Daniels bottles.
    They have cause due to the way he mishandled a player with a concussion this past weekend. They will be saving a ton of money.
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  33. #33
    Point Blank
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    One of the things I will also be doing each Monday night is sitting in with Gabe Morency for about an hour, from 10-11 Eastern/7-8 Pacific, on his SBR based "Late Night Anger Management" session, a little review of the weekend just past, and a look-ahead to the upcoming NFL week. Gabe and I go back a long ways, all the way to his Sports Rage days in Montreal around the turn of the century, and we have a lot of fun kicking it around with each other.


  34. #34
    spindoc932
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    Hey Dave- Some NFL talk
    Ariz really ran AP into the ground last week with 36 carries or so and now he has to play 4 days later against a top D that wont be in the best mood. We know Stanton wont be able to pass, and if AP is held in check like I expect, can Sea be trusted in this price range on road vs a division opponent?

    Looks like LAC will get LB- Perryman back this week and thats huge b/c they have struggled against the run. I expect a big effort from this D off a bye with one of their leaders back. They can still make a run and get into the playoffs, especially with other AFC West teams being so vulnerable........I love Jax D as much as the next guy and I hate to throw shade on their performance, but besides Goff and Big Ben, they havent faced many good QBs........Can the Chargers go into Jax and steal one this week. The line is 4/4.5....Any chance this makes the move to +6?

    Call me crazy but I like TB this week without Evans and Winston. I like to play on veteran QBs the first few weeks they get the starting nod mid seasn due to injuries. They are smart and fresh. I think the shakeup will be good for TB. Im assuming the line will come out TB pick or -1 but I think we get TB as a underdog in this game

  35. #35
    Point Blank
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    Quote Originally Posted by spindoc932 View Post
    Hey Dave- Some NFL talk
    Ariz really ran AP into the ground last week with 36 carries or so and now he has to play 4 days later against a top D that wont be in the best mood. We know Stanton wont be able to pass, and if AP is held in check like I expect, can Sea be trusted in this price range on road vs a division opponent?

    Looks like LAC will get LB- Perryman back this week and thats huge b/c they have struggled against the run. I expect a big effort from this D off a bye with one of their leaders back. They can still make a run and get into the playoffs, especially with other AFC West teams being so vulnerable........I love Jax D as much as the next guy and I hate to throw shade on their performance, but besides Goff and Big Ben, they havent faced many good QBs........Can the Chargers go into Jax and steal one this week. The line is 4/4.5....Any chance this makes the move to +6?

    Call me crazy but I like TB this week without Evans and Winston. I like to play on veteran QBs the first few weeks they get the starting nod mid seasn due to injuries. They are smart and fresh. I think the shakeup will be good for TB. Im assuming the line will come out TB pick or -1 but I think we get TB as a underdog in this game
    Before the line hit the board I was hoping to look for ways to get in play against the Arizona offense, but the markets are very sharp to that one. I expect Peterson to have real issues off of Sunday's workload, much like the feature point that was made here about LeSean McCoy last Thursday, when he went from a heavy load vs. Oakland to being a non-factor against the Jets. But until the player props hit the board I can't find anywhere to go. One real key, which will sound corny but isn't, is that every time the ball ends up in Peterson's hands it means that Stanton doesn't have it, which is a plus for the Cardinals, but Bruce Arians already acknowledged today that they can't count on AP carrying anywhere near that load on Thursday.

    The Chargers become a fit at +6 on my stuff but we aren't going to see that; anything less has me just a bit uncomfortable with Philip Rivers having to evade that pass rush. In design the LAC offense is OK at getting the ball out, middle of the pack in sack rate, so perhaps they can scheme around it a bit.

    I haven't brought myself to take a serious look at NYJ/TB just yet, but now that Winston has been declared out not just this week, but likely for a few (I think they should shut him down for this season, which I will bring as one of the lead topics tomorrow), it does mean having to seriously design some offense for Fitzpatrick, but one of the running themes here is I am not impressed by the ability of Koetter/Monken to design schemes for anyone.

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