[statnerds]

Took a small position to start

3/15/2011 5:58 AM Future/Prop Politics - US 2012 Presidential Election - odds to win - 9001 Party to win - US 2012 Presidential Election - Republicans +145

You're telling me a guy with an approval rating in the 40s still has a 60% or so chance of winning re-election?

How much better do you think shit is going to get in a year and a half, if it does?

And what is going to happen when gas is $4+ in the summer?

On a side note, unemployment amongst black Americans is 15.4%

Damn you Whitey!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BrentCrude]

USA=bizarro world where bad is good,good is bad.That along with how lame the republicans are where they pick their lamest establishment losers to run for president=Obama wins the election.In a normal and sane world,Obama would be working as the manager in an Athletes Foot store in the mall wearing a refs uniform lording it over the Al Bundee's there that he's their boss.

[KC]

A lot better than W but would lose next time if there are any other decent candidates which doesn't look likely

[Waterstpub87]

Odds on those kinds of things are always suspect. 3 months before the last election, the republicans were +200 or so to retake the house.

[statnerds]

The bad part is tying up funds for 2 years.

The president’s job approval ratings continue to stumble along in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As the week came to a close, 46% of voters at least somewhat approved of the president's job performance, while 53% disapproved.

Gas is going higher. Food prices will go higher.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 20% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22. That is the president’s lowest rating since September

Ideally I would build a decent position sitting at the +145 or higher mark. Then Arb the fukk out of it. But the funds required to that given the time doesn't make it worth it. Could just get a fukkin CD and earn 1.1%.


Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans 34.3% Democrats, and 29.9% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

obama -165 is a terrible line.This guy isn't Clinton, doesn't care if he gets re-elected and I truly believe he hates being president. Loves the perks, travel, vacations and golf (61 rounds already) but hates the real part of the job.

[Smoke]

If Republicans take office again, take a gun and shoot yourself in the face, you'll be better off

[The Madcap]

About this far out for the '08 election Hillary was the odds on favorite to win the Democrat primary. I won $200 betting against her.

[Going4Broke]

why tie up your money for that long on a +145? especially when no one knows who is even going to run against obama. but ill tell you what, me and every one i know will be voting republican, so maybe that will help your odds. oh wait, im in CA, my vote is useless.

[crustyme]

not like clinton? clintons approval rating was in the low 40s two years into his first term! yet he was reelected without a sweat.

we get it, you dont like obama. but get used to it cause he'll be your president for next 6 more years.

[King Mayan]

USA=bizarro world where bad is good,good is bad.That along with how lame the republicans are where they pick their lamest establishment losers to run for president=Obama wins the election.In a normal and sane world,Obama would be working as the manager in an Athletes Foot store in the mall wearing a refs uniform lording it over the Al Bundee's there that he's their boss.

[statnerds]

not like clinton? clintons approval rating was in the low 40s two years into his first term! yet he was reelected without a sweat.

we get it, you dont like obama. but get used to it cause he'll be your president for next 6 more years.

Regardless of my feelings for the epic fail that is his presidency, I don't see how he can win, literally. He ran on "at least I'm not Bush", made pretty speeches and got tons of the white vote so they could A. prove they aren't racist (even though America wore the label 3 days after the election) and B. could be a part of history. He cannot win without the vote of white independents. And let's not even start any stupid ass talk about racism. 90% of black voters voted against mccain.

Clinton moved to the middle and had a Republican Congress to save his ass. barry still has dems in control of Senate. So, when you have the Senate for 6 years and the presidency for nearly 4, who do you run against? The man cannot win unless he has an evil straw man to run against.

How can you run on hope and change twice?

You need to remove your emotions from this equation and just look at facts. The economy is going nowhere for at least another year or two. His approval ratings will get lower when gas hits $4+ gallon soon and food prices go up. So who do you run against when you were the one fukkin things up for 4 years?

[Cap dat 4ss]

Stat
Him and his people employ some of the finest speech writers as well as spin artists around. Anyways it won't be hard convincing the American public that the last 4 years have been spent fixing the GOP's mess he inherited and that all of his efforts were derailed by a vocal minority in congress that was more interested in making sure nothing of his passed as opposed to compromising and finding solutions to Americas problems. The GOP has very low approval ratings as well right now. We'll just have to see who steps up to challenge him.

[statnerds]

Stat
Him and his people employ some of the finest speech writers as well as spin artists around. Anyways it won't be hard convincing the American public that the last 4 years have been spent fixing the GOP's mess he inherited and that all of his efforts were derailed by a vocal minority in congress that was more interested in making sure nothing of his passed as opposed to compromising and finding solutions to Americas problems. The GOP has very low approval ratings as well right now. We'll just have to see who steps up to challenge him.

The dems had both houses of congress since 2006. had both houses and the presidency for 2 full years and got nothing done, except shit that the majority of Americans were opposed to. and now we got all this budget bullshit mess going on cause while they had full control of the government, they bitched out and didn't pass a budget. just think if the liberal media ever told the truth, his approval would be in the 30's.

As for speech writing, a teleprompter will not help in debates, where he is going to get demolished if the reps come up with anyone that can think and speak at the same time. True the hardcore libs will never give up on him, nor will black people.

But the huge chunk of white independent voters will decide the next election.

We will get a much better idea when it gets closer and rasmussen starts releasing poll data. Damn near nailed the last 2 presidential elections, especially in 2006...it was amazing.

[BettingWizard]

anybody betting against Obama is a moron. enough said

[Congruency]

id bet on the dems and am planning on putting a good amount of money when the time is right

i think it was bad to bet it now. why not make that bet after the DNC or after the democratic primary when you will for sure get a better number

[statnerds]

id bet on the dems and am planning on putting a good amount of money when the time is right

i think it was bad to bet it now. why not make that bet after the DNC or after the democratic primary when you will for sure get a better number

I just thought the number now failed to accurately reflect the current poll ratings.

If you figure the no vig line is 155, that is over a 60% chance he wins. That doesn't jib with an approval rating under 50.

The number will get lower at some point. I remember obama hitting -110 vs mccain a month or two before the election, after being -220 or higher for months. It was weird.

Just remember, rasmussen will give the right side.

[phillybadboy]

how?

[THE PROFIT]

people somehow think the president has a lot to do with this. Use your head, hes just a man, a figurehead, he doesnt control the economy or the goddamn tides.

[Congruency]

I just thought the number now failed to accurately reflect the current poll ratings.

If you figure the no vig line is 155, that is over a 60% chance he wins. That doesn't jib with an approval rating under 50.

The number will get lower at some point. I remember obama hitting -110 vs mccain a month or two before the election, after being -220 or higher for months. It was weird.

Just remember, rasmussen will give the right side.

I don't want to turn this into a political discussion thread (I guess it is already)...but who the hell would beat obama?

Christie and Rubio aren't running, and theyre really the only ones with a shot.

Anyway good luck with your bets, except for this one which I'll be on the other side of lol

[Waterstpub87]

I don't want to turn this into a political discussion thread (I guess it is already)...but who the hell would beat obama? Christie and Rubio aren't running, and theyre really the only ones with a shot. Anyway good luck with your bets, except for this one which I'll be on the other side of lol

I would assume that the bookmakers feel that many people are inclined like congruency. Hence your getting the + price. It is too far out to truly make a bet either way. It'd say its a 50/50 shot and if you can get it at +145 and don't need the money till then, go for it.

[THEGREAT30]

If I had a million I would bet it all on Obama

[lemart5]

I think in order to whip this country back into shape we have to relect the same president.

[King Mayan]

No,no,no don't interfere with my life and company, but please bomb the shit out of everybody, and tell the companies we repubs protect to lower gas prices hypocrites.

[King Mayan]

Oh, and let's improve the economy by giving the top %1 a tax break and hope it trickles down

[rsnnh12]

Oh, and let's improve the economy by giving the top %1 a tax break and hope it trickles down

This is why I can't stand liberals. Give everyone a tax break, and they claim only the rich are getting breaks. Encourage businesses to stay by lowering corporate tax rates, and you're pandering to big business.

A complete lack of understanding of business and economics... its kinda scary, actually

[King Mayan]

This is why I can't stand liberals. Give everyone a tax break, and they claim only the rich are getting breaks. Encourage businesses to stay by lowering corporate tax rates, and you're pandering to big business.

A complete lack of understanding of business and economics... its kinda scary, actually

When did the bush taxes take affect??? And how many jobs did it create??

[rsnnh12]

When did the bush taxes take affect??? And how many jobs did it create??

2001 and 2003...

And its impossible to say how many jobs these (or any) cuts created, so yet again, this shows your lack of understanding of business and economics. Congrats

Are you trying to argue that higher taxes would create more jobs and spur economic growth?

[King Mayan]

2001 and 2003...

And its impossible to say how many jobs these (or any) cuts created, so yet again, this shows your lack of understanding of business and economics. Congrats

Are you trying to argue that higher taxes would create more jobs and spur economic growth?

So, are you arguing that lower taxes= more jobs, because I see the opposite in the real world.... Something you might not understand.... Lets hope your understanding of business will help USA and trickle those tax breaks down.....

[rsnnh12]

So, are you arguing that lower taxes= more jobs, because I see the opposite in the real world.... Something you might not understand.... Lets hope your understanding of business will help USA and trickle those tax breaks down.....

Lol so higher taxes=more jobs? Say you own a company that makes $100 million/yr. Taxed at 35%, so $35 million in taxes. Now let's lower the tax rate to 25%, which means $25 million in taxes. $10 million extra for the business. Say you decide to give yourself a $5 mil bonus, and reinvest the other $5 mil. You just added a bunch of jobs by reinvesting and expanding your company. With the $5 mil bonus, you bought a new house (paid a construction crew, which gives middle class workers jobs), a new car (auto workers keeping jobs), and put the rest in start-ups/banks. Start-ups you invest in use the money to hire extra employees and build their businesses. Bank uses the money to give out business loans/mortgages for other people. Cycle continues, etc etc etc

But higher taxes=more jobs? Lol

Please explain how that is possible.

[playersonly69]

Obama has always sucked

[King Mayan]

Lol so higher taxes=more jobs? Say you own a company that makes $100 million/yr. Taxed at 35%, so $35 million in taxes. Now let's lower the tax rate to 25%, which means $25 million in taxes. $10 million extra for the business. Say you decide to give yourself a $5 mil bonus, and reinvest the other $5 mil. You just added a bunch of jobs by reinvesting and expanding your company. With the $5 mil bonus, you bought a new house (paid a construction crew, which gives middle class workers jobs), a new car (auto workers keeping jobs), and put the rest in start-ups/banks. Start-ups you invest in use the money to hire extra employees and build their businesses. Bank uses the money to give out business loans/mortgages for other people. Cycle continues, etc etc etc

But higher taxes=more jobs? Lol

Please explain how that is possible.

but where's the jobs?? .. And why is the rich getting richer while the middle class is in the dumpster....It sounds good rsnnh, but we all your 5 million to jobs, is just going into more boats and cars...

[Hotdiggity11]

I see, once again, the OP didn't do his research.

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...andidates.html

[newguy]

Here is Obama's campaign. Last election it was "Hope and Change" This time its gonna be "Things are still better than they were under W"

We just have to hope that America isn't too stupid to fall for that. The experiment hasn't worked. Time to move on.

[rocky502]

When did the bush taxes take affect??? And how many jobs did it create??

Actually if you can read you would see that after the initial tax cuts under Bush, there were 52 consecutive months of job growth before the crash. Maybe just coincided with the timing but talk about stimulous, that's it. The crash had a lot to do with the housing/mortgage crash which was debateable on who caused that. Suffices to say their is plenty of blame to go around to both parties and the citizens who signed ARMS and interest only loans can't dodge responsibility for their actions. Way too many people that should have been renters were buying $250,000 homes they clearly were buying on a temporarily low payment alone.

Plus the Bush administration never had the cunning and slyness to create a totally made-up and unmeasurable metric known as "jobs saved". Only the kool-aid drinkers with unconditional Obama love, accept that bullshit stat as true.

[rkelly110]

Even a moron as myself has ideas to cut the deficit and increase jobs.

Clinton had ideas and gave them to congress and the houses to come up with
bills to his liking for him to sign.

What ideas does Obama have, besides what he ran on, that went to shit.
The ideas he has, when giving speeches, is nothing more than a coach
inspiring his team. The team seems to be deaf.

Obama alienated the republican party early on, hence the party of no.
So there's 2 years of nothing being done. Now he wants to bi partisan. Even though
it might be working some what, the bills coming out of those jackwagons depts
aren't doing shit to help anyone except the govt cut down on spending a tiny bit.