1. 02-22-11 04:31 AM #36
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettingGeek View Post
    real story:
    a guy bet on a dog +1000 which shoulda been only +700
    he only has $800 on his bank roll
    First 8 bets $100 each, lose. Gone broke.
    Dog +1000 hits twice in a row. after that

    Dogs value bet is a good strategy, only if you have balls and nerve of steel to go with it.
    Betting 12.5% of bankroll per bet on 12.5% (+700) outcomes is not sensible bet sizing.
    Read up on Kelly Criterion.
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  2. 02-22-11 04:56 AM #37
    Duff85
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettingGeek View Post
    Value bet vs. winning bet
    You know what to take



    Don't tell the books that you got this game all figured out bro.
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  3. 02-22-11 06:32 AM #38
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettingGeek View Post
    I followed your posts to understand about the value and I agree with ya on most things.
    The only problem is if people keeps betting on dogs value bet such as Hawks +255 for NBA today
    Case 1: they will drain their bankroll after losing couple games like that and afraid of taking any "dogs value"
    Case 2: they gone broke and don't have chance to bet on another "dogs value" and to see their value bets strategy mature

    You know what I'm saying pal
    That's a money management issue. Dogs usually command a smaller percentage of your bankroll per play, so you shouldn't be going broke in the process.
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  4. 02-22-11 06:34 AM #39
    rebuswad
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    What you really want is a winning bet with value.
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  5. 02-22-11 06:34 AM #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettingGeek View Post
    real story:
    a guy bet on a dog +1000 which shoulda been only +700
    he only has $800 on his bank roll
    First 8 bets $100 each, lose. Gone broke.
    Dog +1000 hits twice in a row. after that

    Dogs value bet is a good strategy, only if you have balls and nerve of steel to go with it.
    AGAIN, guy is an idiot for betting 12.5% of his BR on the first bet and not deceasing his roll% after each loss.
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  6. 02-22-11 06:43 AM #41
    Richkas
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    value

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  7. 02-22-11 06:44 AM #42
    Richkas
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    75% of the pricks on here that preach value wouldn't know what value was if it hit them in the face. Especially the math geeks on here.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Whippit
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  8. 02-22-11 06:49 AM #43
    madrabbit
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettingGeek View Post
    Value bet vs. winning bet
    You know what to take
    exactly. I made big dollars doint this. Just have to have the bank to back you up when you do get hit.
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  9. 02-22-11 06:56 AM #44
    madrabbit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dirty Sanchez View Post
    The most overused word in gambling: Value

    No value if you get your ass handed to you
    exactly. My friend says he goes for odds as in value. Why would you go for odds if it doesnt have a greater chance tho of winning. You could bet ten games for value and lose every one instead of betting on probability and winning most. Of course you can get burned but ffs use your head. I made a shit load betting on short priced favourites and anyone who says otherwise is a just a jealous ass mother rooster_eater.


    Anything is possible. You just have to be willing to risk the cash.
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  10. 02-22-11 07:35 AM #45
    Duff85
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    Quote Originally Posted by madrabbit View Post
    I made a shit load betting on short priced favourites and anyone who says otherwise is a just a jealous ass mother rooster_eater.

    Yes fortunes like the free 20% you were going to make in this thread?
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...nt-profit.html

    I'm pretty sure any book in the world would welcome you with open arms MadRabbit.
    Last edited by Duff85; 02-22-11 at 07:41 AM.
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  11. 02-22-11 07:40 AM #46
    madrabbit
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    [quote=Duff85;8924480]
    Quote Originally Posted by madrabbit View Post
    I made a shit load betting on short priced favourites and anyone who says otherwise is a just a jealous ass mother rooster_eater.


    I'm pretty sure any book in the world would welcome you with open arms MadRabbit.
    really you ******* dense oyster? ive made a few bets here and go and research the winning tickets you ******* moron. I reckon you bet 100 dollars a pop and youre down about 20k. Youre a joke. The ppl that know me here and not the ones that are jealous know im legit and have seen me post big winning bets that have won. You claim to be so successful but in actual fact youre a degenerate ******* loser.
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  12. 02-22-11 07:54 AM #47
    Duff85
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    You call me a degenerate, but you bet on cricket without knowing the rules of the sport. In that thread - you posted about Zimbabwe opting to power play field into the 15th over - disadvantaging your bet, when in actual fact them having more fielders inside the circle should have encouraged Australia to score and was actually an advantage for you.

    I'd quit while I was moderately behind if I was you. All day son.
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  13. 02-22-11 08:14 AM #48
    slatter
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duff85 View Post
    You call me a degenerate, but you bet on cricket without knowing the rules of the sport. In that thread - you posted about Zimbabwe opting to power play field into the 15th over - disadvantaging your bet, when in actual fact them having more fielders inside the circle should have encouraged Australia to score and was actually an advantage for you.

    I'd quit while I was moderately behind if I was you. All day son.
    Wow, what a start to the day. Bravo, sir.
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  14. 02-22-11 04:36 PM #49
    Albert Pujols
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    Quote Originally Posted by madrabbit View Post
    exactly. My friend says he goes for odds as in value. Why would you go for odds if it doesnt have a greater chance tho of winning. You could bet ten games for value and lose every one instead of betting on probability and winning most. Of course you can get burned but ffs use your head. I made a shit load betting on short priced favourites and anyone who says otherwise is a just a jealous ass mother rooster_eater.


    Anything is possible. You just have to be willing to risk the cash.
    If you bet games with value, you don't go broke. You win.
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  15. 02-22-11 05:20 PM #50
    BettingWizard
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    Unless you're a ******* psychic, the "if it doesn't win" stipulation is nonsense.
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  16. 02-22-11 05:59 PM #51
    CarpeDime
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    I would MUCH rather go 0-100 and lose every penny I have and be homeless, but have beaten the closing line on average, than go 100-0 doubling up every time and making $1,000,000,000,000 but have gotten worse numbers than the closing line on average

    that's why I'm big time and why i get RESPECT from the sharps and nerds and modelers and phds and dorks
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  17. 02-22-11 06:29 PM #52
    20Four7
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    Quote Originally Posted by big0mar View Post
    By definition, a value bet is a winning bet more often than not.
    Exactly
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  18. 02-22-11 08:33 PM #53
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by big0mar View Post
    By definition, a value bet is a winning bet more often than not.
    Actually this is not true.

    For example, if you continuously take +200 on plays that should be +150, you will only win 40% of the time but still come out ahead.
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