Milwaukee Brewers -113 over K.C.Royals is my play of the evening

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65450

    #1
    Milwaukee Brewers -113 over K.C.Royals is my play of the evening
    Shaun Marcum has been steady all season, not lights out, but steady all year.
    Marcum has only given up more than 3 earned runs once in 12 starts.
    Entering tonight's game, Marcum has a steady 3.50 ERA, solid 1.21 WH/IP ratio, strikes out one an inning, while sporting a 5 and 3 record.
    He's probably the most steady pitcher in the majors, his ERA and WH/IP this season are almost identical to his career numbers. You know going into every season the guy will have a 3.5 ERA and a 1.2 WH/IP at the end of the year.
    I like strike out pitchers versus a team that strikes out a lot, and KC does a lot of whiffing.
    He's faced Gordon nine times, struck him out four, I really don't think KC will give him trouble at all this evening.

    KC trots out Luke Hochevar, and even though I don't like the term 'gas can', it applies.
    Let's just say his pitches don't miss many bats.
    Hochevar sports and butt ugly 6.57 ERA, a just as ugly 1.56 WH/IP ratio, and doesn't really strike out many.\
    The game is in Kaufman, where Hochevar has not had any success this season, actually he's awful at home.

    Home ERA is 10.23, his home WH/IP is 1.73, those are as bad as numbers as it gets.

    I am fully aware that the Brewers have been underachieving all season, I just can't see them with Marcum, against Hochevar, losing two straight to KC, getting swept tonight.

    Brewers have enough sticks with Weeks, Hart, Aoki, A-Ram and Braun to get more than enough runs tonight.
    Brews have not been money makers all season, but love them tonight in this spot.
    Marcum should have his way with the KC line up, I don't see Hochevar getting past six innings.

    One very important thing to consider, and this is probably the most important point I am going to make in this post.
    Last night's game was an 11 inning marathon, KC lifted their starter Sanchez after 5 innings.
    KC had to use 5 different relievers for six innings.
    Royal bull pen tonight is both depleted and tired.
    Hochevar is not an innings eater, if he gets shelled early, he may have to take one for the team and continue to get shelled
    Marcum has a rubber arm, he routinely .throws 115 pitches a game, even though the Brews used their bull pen for 4 innings last night, Marcum can go all nine.

    Bullpens (or lack of availability) needs to be factored in tonight more so than most games I handicap.

    Brewers -113 is my play of the evening.

    Straight Wager
    120094483
    <small style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0.1em; list-style: none; font-size: 0.9em; background-color: rgb(37, 101, 161); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid silver; ">MLB</small>[915] MIL BREWERS
    Action
    -115 $288.00 $250.00
  • morningmoney
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-19-12
    • 145

    #2
    Thanks for checking in on this game, Nash. I was liking this play - Great point on Hochevar and the bullpen. He's only gone 7 inn once this year and hasn't made it past the 5th in 2 of his last 3 games.
    Comment
    • DoubleRedDragon
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-18-11
      • 975

      #3
      on it too....
      Comment
      • stevenash
        Moderator
        • 01-17-11
        • 65450

        #4
        ^
        In baseball, there is no such thing as a lock, I can tell you stories that would make your hair curl, like the time Larry McWilliams (who was 4-13 at the time) beat me on a two hit complete shutout, but on paper, this one sure looks good.

        Let's get it done tonight.
        Comment
        • jlee
          SBR Sharp
          • 07-22-11
          • 375

          #5
          Gotta love this pick, at -113 there's great value on the brewers. Maybe because KC won the first two in this series? Marcum is solid. KC is 10-20 at home. I don't see a sweep happening. Last night they got lucky on a blown save, tonight, it's not going to be the same story.
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 65450

            #6
            ^
            Agreed, I was expecting -125, -113 is a nice price.
            Comment
            • Brock Landers
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 06-30-08
              • 45359

              #7
              not gunna fade you, lets get some!
              Comment
              • Utah_Jay
                SBR Sharp
                • 12-01-11
                • 258

                #8
                Thanks for the write up will tail on this one
                Comment
                • Sambooka
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 02-21-11
                  • 822

                  #9
                  Nash... i like the play, i'm on it as well.

                  What do you think of the 1st Five inning play? Marcum vs. Hochevar

                  i'm just worried about the bull-pen and what happened last night
                  Comment
                  • russiaboss
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 02-15-10
                    • 735

                    #10
                    On KC +1/2 1st 5 innings GL
                    Comment
                    • stevenash
                      Moderator
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 65450

                      #11
                      ^
                      2-2 at the end of five gets you a cash.

                      I've been known to play a few of those first five innings + 1/2 runs wagers myself.

                      OK, here's to a 2-2 game after five, 4-2 Brews win.

                      BoL
                      Comment
                      • russiaboss
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 02-15-10
                        • 735

                        #12
                        Originally posted by stevenash
                        ^
                        2-2 at the end of five gets you a cash.

                        I've been known to play a few of those first five innings + 1/2 runs wagers myself.

                        OK, here's to a 2-2 game after five, 4-2 Brews win.

                        BoL
                        Sounds like a perfect plan
                        Comment
                        • good2go2mexico
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 11-25-11
                          • 791

                          #13
                          It has been very profitable betting against Hochevar this season. I'm on this.
                          Comment
                          • BuddyBear
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-10-05
                            • 7233

                            #14
                            Careful guys. Marcum has been up and down most of the year. Brewers, like the Royals, are a very weak team and are currently in bad form.
                            Last edited by BuddyBear; 06-14-12, 04:38 PM.
                            Comment
                            • a4u2fear
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-29-10
                              • 8147

                              #15
                              thanks steve, always appreciated.
                              Comment
                              • Jeffie
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-06-12
                                • 3428

                                #16
                                ML and with a parlay lets cash this.
                                Comment
                                • BennyFang
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-27-09
                                  • 1412

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by stevenash
                                  ^
                                  In baseball, there is no such thing as a lock, I can tell you stories that would make your hair curl, like the time Larry McWilliams (who was 4-13 at the time) beat me on a two hit complete shutout, but on paper, this one sure looks good.

                                  Let's get it done tonight.
                                  Larry McWilliams? Wow, that's a blast from the past. I remember him pitching for the Braves, a scrawny lefty. Think he had some decent years in Pittsburgh.
                                  Comment
                                  • thekidfanky
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 04-19-12
                                    • 236

                                    #18
                                    Tailing!!
                                    Trying to recruit members via pm to split week subscription of a handicapper 1/11/13 annie
                                    Comment
                                    • Ron29301
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-27-11
                                      • 2311

                                      #19
                                      I'm on your side this evening buddy. Lets get it. ML 2x
                                      Comment
                                      • Ghenghis Kahn
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-02-12
                                        • 19734

                                        #20
                                        i'm passing on this game. the market thinks kc will sweep.
                                        Comment
                                        • faheemrob
                                          SBR Hustler
                                          • 04-16-12
                                          • 67

                                          #21
                                          I'm on it too.... love it
                                          Comment
                                          • JMon
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 12-11-09
                                            • 9800

                                            #22
                                            Like it...Marcum is a good bounce back pitcher after giving up 2 or more HRs as the Brewers are 14-1 since 6-09-07 in his next start. Brewers are 14-0 since April of '11 as a fav after giving up a lead in an evening game. Thought I would dig up how the Royals do trying for a 3 game home sweep as dog. Well...lol. let's just say it doesn't happen very often. In matter of fact, they havent' had a Home sweep opportunity as a dog since 2009, but are 9-8 since 2004.

                                            bol
                                            Comment
                                            • mngambler
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-01-11
                                              • 2890

                                              #23
                                              great analysis..tailing for a Unit, fyi for those with multiple books youwager has it at -108 right now
                                              Comment
                                              • Jeff Grant
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-13-11
                                                • 1715

                                                #24
                                                The line movement on this game is starting to scare the daylights out of me
                                                Comment
                                                • rumnblack
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 05-21-12
                                                  • 876

                                                  #25
                                                  I love this play, BOL
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mngambler
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-01-11
                                                    • 2890

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by mngambler
                                                    great analysis..tailing for a Unit, fyi for those with multiple books youwager has it at -108 right now
                                                    edit: just moved down to -105....hmm
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Ghenghis Kahn
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                      • 19734

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Jeff Grant
                                                      The line movement on this game is starting to scare the daylights out of me
                                                      most on here don't think line moves matter though. let's see, marcum better pitcher than hochevar, milwacky better offense than kc, kc hasn't swept milwacky since birth of jesus, majority of the public on milwacky, but still the line moves 25 points towards kc. hmmmmm...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JMon
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 12-11-09
                                                        • 9800

                                                        #28
                                                        quite frankly, it's starting to scare the daylights out of me as well.. we shall see!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • remeedella
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-17-12
                                                          • 4089

                                                          #29
                                                          apparently i hit a big over 8.5 bet on milwaukee and I cant cancel and its an accident
                                                          do I do a big hedge out?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JMon
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 12-11-09
                                                            • 9800

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by remeedella
                                                            apparently i hit a big over 8.5 bet on milwaukee and I cant cancel and its an accident
                                                            do I do a big hedge out?
                                                            Marcum is under machine on the road, especially as a fav. Depends on what Hochevar you are going to get. The guy can be downright filthy or fukkin aweful.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • usa25
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 06-07-12
                                                              • 63

                                                              #31
                                                              Can the brewers hitters get it done??
                                                              Comment
                                                              • TheBayouBengal
                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                • 06-06-12
                                                                • 87

                                                                #32
                                                                Looks like a very solid play. I think Marcum beats Hochevar most any day.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TheBayouBengal
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 06-06-12
                                                                  • 87

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Going to take the Brew crew for the 1st 5 too.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • stevenash
                                                                    Moderator
                                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                                    • 65450

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Ghenghis Kahn
                                                                    most on here don't think line moves matter though. let's see, marcum better pitcher than hochevar, milwacky better offense than kc, kc hasn't swept milwacky since birth of jesus, majority of the public on milwacky, but still the line moves 25 points towards kc. hmmmmm...
                                                                    My motto has always been "you like the side, you bet the side"
                                                                    But yeah, the line movement makes you think, but I still like my side, and I am confident of my wager, if it goes south, so be it.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • stevenash
                                                                      Moderator
                                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                                      • 65450

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Aoki LF
                                                                      Morgan RF
                                                                      Braun DH
                                                                      Ramirez 3B
                                                                      Hart 1B
                                                                      Kottaras C
                                                                      Weeks 2B
                                                                      Gomez CF
                                                                      Maysonet SS
                                                                      (Marcum P)


                                                                      Gordon LF
                                                                      Getz 2B
                                                                      Butler DH
                                                                      Hosmer 1B
                                                                      Francoeur RF
                                                                      Moustakas 3B
                                                                      Escobar SS
                                                                      Dyson CF
                                                                      Quintero C
                                                                      (Hochevar P)
                                                                      Comment
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