[Brp27345]

Ok I need some people who are good at math... and I'm sure a lot of you know how to do this formula already... so if you could help me out I would really appreciate it...

1.) What are the ACTUAL odds of hitting a parlay??? considering that I am able to hit exactly 50% of my picks...

2.) Now let's say I miss my parlay the first day... I understand my odds of hitting a parlay the next day are exactly the same as the previous day... but the real question I can't wrap my mind around is what are the chances of hitting one of the parlays over that 2 day span... 3 day span... 4 day span???

Answers to these questions would be GREAT... and if my explanation on the second one is confusing please ask me and I will try to better explain it...

Thanks in advance brp27345...

[nikossf]

Your odds on any single parlay diminish with each play IN that parlay..Basically the more teams you put into a parlay the higher the odds. Less chance of you hitting. Now given over a week span each parlay would be different odds based on whatever the odds of the games you PUT INTO that parlay.
However..the chances of hitting ANY GIVEN parlay on ANY GIVEN day will always be the same. This variable should never change because it is still a game and there is still a 50/50 chance any given day.
So,.to sum this up. Your odds will only change based on the odds of the games you put into your parlay.

Hitting a 4 team parlay monday,..would be the same odds on tuesday and wednesday..Every day,.the same unless the odds of the ACTUAL games going into the parlay change.

Hope this helps.

[Brp27345]

Im talking about a 2 team parlay with -110 odds... so I'm wondering what the odds are of hitting a parlay like that...

as I said up top I know my chances to hit a parlay will be the same each day individually... but does the percentage change if u look at hitting just 1 of those parlays over lets say a 7 day span... I mean I don't know the number yet... but if the chance of hitting a parlay on Monday is 33%... what are the chances of hitting just "1" parlay that week (same kind of parlay)... I'm guessing it can't be a 33% chance of hitting 1 out of 7... if there is a 33% chance of hitting 1 individually... hope this clarifies things... thanks again...

and thanks for the response nikossf...

[Brp27345]

so wondering chances of hitting a single 2 team -110 parlay for 1 day... over 2 days... over 3 days... and so on... over an 8 day span... thanks...

[Brp27345]

anybody got any info for me? ... I would really appreciate it!

[bztips]

Any martingale system is a loser over the long term.

Having said that, here's an answer to your question:
Prob of losing a single 2-team parlay under your assumptions = 0.75
If you play one parlay per day, then over the course of n days, prob of winning at least one parlay = 1 - 0.75^n

For example, over 5 days your prob of winning at least once is 1 - 0.75^5 = .763 = 76.3%.

[splash]

The chance of hitting the parlay once is .5*.5 = 25%. The chance of hitting the parlay at least once out of 2 days is .25+(.75*.25) = 43.75%. At least once out of 3 days is .25+(.75*.25)+(.5625*.25) = 57.8%. etc

[LT Profits]

I thought the word M********e was banned from the Think Tank.

Brp, you got your answers in posts 6 and 7, but that does not change the fact that the chances of hitting one parlay on one given day are 3/1 against you, and if you think there is "no way" of losing 8, 9. 10. etc.... parlays in a row, you are mistaken.

[Romanov]

I think I have missed 12 parlays in a row with betpoints

[AmpleGamble]

ya, no martingale system will work in the long run

[Brp27345]

I thought the word M********e was banned from the Think Tank. Brp, you got your answers in posts 6 and 7, but that does not change the fact that the chances of hitting one parlay on one given day are 3/1 against you, and if you think there is "no way" of losing 8, 9. 10. etc.... parlays in a row, you are mistaken.

ya, no martingale system will work in the long run

Fair enough... and I understand the fact that losing 8 or 9 or even 10 in a row is always a possibility... I was just wondering the probability of it... as I explained in thread name it is an adjusted martingale system of sorts... and I apologize if it is banned in the think tank... just going through the thought process on my way to Philosophy class as this popped into my head and I knew I would have an hour or so to spare before my class started...

The concept behind it was that I would use the Martingale system... and at every advanced level I would advance it just enough to make $25 or more dollars at every level as I went up... considering the base level bet of $10...

I'm sure this has been thought of before but I will post the breakdown of this thought process directly below...

[Brp27345]

These are all on -110 odds... and using 2.6/1 odds on a parlay of this type...

Level 1 - 10 to win $26 - Win I am up $26 - Lose I am down $10
Level 2 - 15 to win $39 - Win I am up $29 - Lose I am down $25

could type them all out but don't feel like it... anywas I continued on with all levels giving me a return of $25 up until...

Level 8 - 100 to win $260 - Win I am up $25 - Lose I am down $335

Obviously this would be an 8th bet... but I would be able to go through the entire system with a MAX loss of $335...

So with the math above I would "technically" have a 90% chance of hitting a parlay on one of those 8 days over the grand scheme of things...

Just thought doing a Martingale parlay would decrease the risk size in relation to a regular Martingale and also increase the profit from the base bet at the same time... Just was thinking to myself can I really go 8 days in a row without going 2-0 once... probably could... but I like my chances... most likely just a fool though...

Any thoughts on this other than the basic Martingales don't work... would be appreciated...

Thanks...

[hossa8110]

sounds like a smart safe way to gamble without getting reamed.