1. 02-13-11 03:58 PM #1
    KingKolzig
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    NBA on ESPN 8:05, solid value prop!!!

    Monta Ellis +3.5 pts (+180) vs K.Durant

    3 points is the difference in season average for the two players so why this line isnt more like +110 im shocked. A few other things work in favor of this prop hitting as well. Firstly Durant is in the 2nd night of a back to back, he averages only 26.5 pts in b2b games compared to 29.0 ppg with rest. Ellis has had 2 full days rest and has averaged 26.7 ppg on 2 days rest this season. The teams only met once so far this season and Durant was held to only 16 attempts to Ellis 21. Maybe they doubled Durant im not sure but if it goes 16 to 21 tonight the prop will hit rather easily unless Durant hits 15+ ft's. I think Ellis is undervalued in props because he isnt a top tier NBA star and Durant is overvalued because he is so hyped. At +180 this is a great deal

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  2. 02-13-11 04:08 PM #2
    DemoralizdDreamr
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    which book bro???
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  3. 02-13-11 04:08 PM #3
    rfr3sh
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    Good luck might tail looks good
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  4. 02-13-11 04:14 PM #4
    rm18
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    I think a little value but he will be guarded by Sefolosha the only good defender on OKC, so they might go through other guys more than normal
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  5. 02-13-11 04:25 PM #5
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    I think a little value but he will be guarded by Sefolosha the only good defender on OKC, so they might go through other guys more than normal
    most NBA teams have a solid defender to guard the other teams leading scorer. trouble is sefolosha only plays 27 minutes and they also have to worry about curry. and earlier in the year same matchup Ellis scored 29. im not saying this is a lock, far from it in fact. but the public is driving this bet from where it should be at +110 to +180.
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  6. 02-13-11 04:29 PM #6
    yisman
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    need to list books that have this?
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  7. 02-13-11 04:32 PM #7
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    need to list books that have this?
    thegreek has it up. 5dimes doesnt have any player props up for this game yet. BetPhoenix doesnt have any up yet either. bookmaker is gay. yisman u always ask what books, why not just check ur books and see if its there
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  8. 02-13-11 04:41 PM #8
    yisman
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    because it's easier to just have you mention what book you got it at, that way we would know if we could make the same bet.
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  9. 02-13-11 04:41 PM #9
    YorkHunt
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    Might get voided..Durant is questionable they are still not sure on him.
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  10. 02-13-11 04:42 PM #10
    VegasInsider
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    I posted this a couple hours ago as a play. Great value for sure
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  11. 02-13-11 05:21 PM #11
    KingKolzig
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    YORK: durant is "probable", its not hurt that bad. i bet he plays, which would be a good thing if hes in pain and playing tentative. tempting to put another unit on it at that point

    INSIDER: increasing in value im loving this play with a hobbled durant
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  12. 02-13-11 09:32 PM #12
    KingKolzig
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    Winner

    Ellis 33, Durant 29
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  13. 02-13-11 09:37 PM #13
    TrapperDapper
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    Nice call. Ellis, Curry, and Lee were phenomenal.
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  14. 02-13-11 09:40 PM #14
    ApricotSinner32
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    Nice work on the +180 chimp bet.
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  15. 02-13-11 09:45 PM #15
    LLXC
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  16. 02-13-11 09:54 PM #16
    KingKolzig
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    thanks fellas
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  17. 02-13-11 10:20 PM #17
    jjgold
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    Ellis played a monster game

    This are not as easy to hit as they appear

    nice call
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  18. 02-13-11 10:41 PM #18
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Ellis played a monster game

    This are not as easy to hit as they appear

    nice call
    thanks, ya it looked like a weird set-up like vegas knew something but turns out the public is just all over durant these days
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