1. 02-10-11 08:26 PM #1
    VegasInsider
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    Need help with this Dallas/Denver prop...

    Bookmaker has a prop bet and I want to jump all over..

    Largest Lead by Either Team:

    Over 14.5 (-130)
    Under 14.5 (EV)

    Doesn't the Under look too good here? It's a 3-point spread...

    HELP!
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  2. 02-10-11 08:27 PM #2
    B1GER1C828
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    hmmm...hard not to take under right? lol. c's were -2 though ant were up 15 at one point. never know. But i'd take under, especially at even!
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  3. 02-10-11 08:30 PM #3
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    Fukk it, I'm on it.
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  4. 02-10-11 08:31 PM #4
    biff
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    dallas slows games down and plays better D against great scoring teams. so yeah, i think this game will stay close and that is a good prop in my opinion.
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  5. 02-10-11 08:33 PM #5
    KingKolzig
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    i noticed that this morning. no other props for that game have any value. i like this game to be played close for 2 reason. first one, both teams played last night, no team has a freshness advantage. secondly its on national tv, they simply dont want a 46-28 game midway thru the half. at even its a good deal
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  6. 02-10-11 08:34 PM #6
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    Exactly. Thanks fellas, good insight. I didn't pound it out of principle, but put a few bucks on the under.
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  7. 02-10-11 08:38 PM #7
    biff
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKolzig View Post
    i noticed that this morning. no other props for that game have any value. i like this game to be played close for 2 reason. first one, both teams played last night, no team has a freshness advantage. secondly its on national tv, they simply dont want a 46-28 game midway thru the half. at even its a good deal
    ok... i'll give you the back-to back games but i have arguments against that one. but you list one of your points the game remain close because they are on nat tv? do not give me some bs stats showing scores on past nat tv games. these guys play with millions watching them every damn game.

    sorry, but that is just freaking stupid. i have no problem with you and you are one of the less annoying posters here but... again that is just one stupid reason.
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  8. 02-10-11 08:40 PM #8
    biff
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    oh wait, now as i read your post more are you hinting that the nba fixes these nat tv games to keep them close? that is even more ridiculous if that is the case.
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  9. 02-10-11 08:43 PM #9
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by biff View Post
    ok... i'll give you the back-to back games but i have arguments against that one. but you list one of your points the game remain close because they are on nat tv? do not give me some bs stats showing scores on past nat tv games. these guys play with millions watching them every damn game.

    sorry, but that is just freaking stupid. i have no problem with you and you are one of the less annoying posters here but... again that is just one stupid reason.
    biff im very annoying. and my attempt at insight is really just to convince myself to take an +ev line.

    however in my defense with hundreds of millions on the line there is a greater chance than not that the NBA and company would lobby the refs for a tight one vs a boring blowout, thats why i think its worth it at +100
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  10. 02-10-11 08:45 PM #10
    Steve226
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    Largest lead in the Lakers/Celtics game going on right now has been 15. As I post this, it is now tied 55-55. You be the judge.
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  11. 02-10-11 08:48 PM #11
    biff
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKolzig View Post
    biff im very annoying. and my attempt at insight is really just to convince myself to take an +ev line.

    however in my defense with hundreds of millions on the line there is a greater chance than not that the NBA and company would lobby the refs for a tight one vs a boring blowout, thats why i think its worth it at +100
    i'm speechless man, you have a way with words. i'll respect your opinions. Your post read more like a woman betting on sports is all. But I understand now.
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  12. 02-10-11 08:53 PM #12
    alamo
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    like it
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  13. 02-10-11 09:19 PM #13
    ManBearPig
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    I calculated the odds for the over to be at +283 or better the under -283 or better.

    At EV the under is the play as it's where you'll get your +EV. This was all based on the average biggest lead of the two teams being 13.
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  14. 02-10-11 09:54 PM #14
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by biff View Post
    i'm speechless man, you have a way with words. i'll respect your opinions. Your post read more like a woman betting on sports is all. But I understand now.
    biff are u calling me gay?
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  15. 02-10-11 10:00 PM #15
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManBearPig View Post
    I calculated the odds for the over to be at +283 or better the under -283 or better.

    At EV the under is the play as it's where you'll get your +EV. This was all based on the average biggest lead of the two teams being 13.
    I am interested in how you "calculated" that.

    Statistically speaking a maximum lead of 13 or more for either team based on a spread of 0-5 happens around 58% of the time.
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  16. 02-10-11 10:01 PM #16
    nyed1010
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    this is like the "will there be 3 unanswered scores" in the NFL and it's pretty much a trap. It happens wayyyy more often that you would think. Dallas was down like 12 against sacramento yesterday in the first half and last year denver got blown out 127-91 @ Denver.

    edit: meant to say Dallas got blown out @ Denver last year
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  17. 02-10-11 10:07 PM #17
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    Shit..Denver up 13 and just missed an ally-oop

    Need Dallas to score and quick!
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  18. 02-10-11 10:09 PM #18
    HustleGetPaid
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    Better hope Dallas gets their sh*t together, 13 pt lead right now...
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  19. 02-10-11 10:13 PM #19
    Steve226
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    15 in the 1Q already.
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  20. 02-10-11 10:13 PM #20
    HustleGetPaid
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    15 pt lead, basketball is too much of a game of runs...
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  21. 02-10-11 10:14 PM #21
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    Wow...that was quick.

    Didn't anticipate Billups making 30 foot pull up 3's...
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  22. 02-10-11 10:25 PM #22
    B1GER1C828
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    ridiculous...
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  23. 02-10-11 11:02 PM #23
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    Glad I didn't end up pounding it. The three that Billups hit to put them up 15 was DEEEEEP

    He had to be at least 4 feet behind the arc
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  24. 02-10-11 11:12 PM #24
    ManBearPig
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    I am interested in how you "calculated" that. Statistically speaking a maximum lead of 13 or more for either team based on a spread of 0-5 happens around 58% of the time.
    Didn't base anything on the spread...Using Poisson assuming a mean of 13 the odds of hitting 14 or under is 68% and 15+ is 24% do the math from there.
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