Originally Posted by
BadBeatBodog
It's expected growth. EV vs. EG is growth vs. value and when we're talking about futures bets we are definitely concerned with EG. I will quote a Ganchrow post, for obvious reasons:
"The fundamental issue with bets such as these is that, despite being positive EV, placing them is an excellent way to go broke. The apparent contradiction is easily reconciled. If you were to repeat this bet once in each of a gigantically huge number of parallel universes, in nearly all of the universes you’d lose your bet, but in a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of those universes you’d have win the bet and that win quantity would make up for all the losses plus an additional 10% of the amount risked.
The fact is that most people just aren’t willing to live through billions of trillions worth of bets just to have a vanishingly minuscule probability of winning a huge odds bet once. So while the bet may have positive expected value, the expected outcome is for your bankroll to shrink by $10,000 each time the bet’s made. If your bankroll were $1,000,000 and you made the bet 100 times, you could expect to be broke after the 100th bet (even though your expected value would be 10% × $1,000,000 = +$100,000)."
Tying up the money when it can be used in other ways is foolish, especially since you will most likely be able to find similar odds much closer to the actual event, as other posters in here have said.