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Matchbook liquidity
I just don't see it, even the hour before gametime. I end up having to play elsewhere b/c I don't have the time to wait around for my orders to get filled. Seems like only the really big events like NFL and major bowl games get enough volume on a consistent basis, and the big amounts for CBB are usually at unattractive numbers. Are there any other regular, reduced juice options for CBB sides that can take a couple dimes? Seems like you have to lay -110 if you want to play at this level.
Do you have/can you get a Pinnacle account?Originally Posted by parlayin
I just don't see it, even the hour before gametime. I end up having to play elsewhere b/c I don't have the time to wait around for my orders to get filled. Seems like only the really big events like NFL and major bowl games get enough volume on a consistent basis, and the big amounts for CBB are usually at unattractive numbers. Are there any other regular, reduced juice options for CBB sides that can take a couple dimes? Seems like you have to lay -110 if you want to play at this level.
you just can't be trying hard enough
I can almost always get offers matched at better than Pinnacle odds for NBA within the last hour
Oh brother not another one. Do you think offers just wait for you to look at? Offers are made and accepted all the time.
I saw a game that had zero liquidity at the price I wanted. Made a $3,300 offer and it was accepted.
Now if I did not make an offer I suppose I could come here and complain that there is no liquiduty.
yeah i am sure they are getting matched at better lines than pinny at that moment they get matched. however, if you are getting them matched 1 hr before, you can be certain 85% or more of them will move against you and at game time, they will no longer be better than pinny.
be careful at matchy.. these guys know what they're doing there.. if a large offer is getting matched, there's usually a reason for that.
sure, lines and odds will always move - sometimes in your favour, sometimes against you but the point is that at most times and more certainly the closer to game time the more certain you will get your bet on at better odds at MB than at Pinnacle - what happens to the odds after that you can't do anything about but that's true wherever you bet
the best you can do is secure the top odds at the time you bet
You talk about zero liquidity at the price you wanted. I'm referring to close to zero liquidity at even the market price for CBB lines. For example, let's look at OSU/Northwestern which starts in less than 2 hours. There's about a dime available for OSU -102 and about a dime available for NU at -112, which basically means if I like OSU and want to play more than a dime, I have to post offers and keep checking back to see if they get matched. If I like NU for any amount, I'd do better laying -110 elsewhere or also have to keep posting offers until they get matched. The K-State/KU game is similar. If I like a bunch of games and want to play them before I head out for the day, Matchbook doesn't really present many more options than other books. So I don't get when Fishhead or others say it's a MUST HAVE out...for the most part, it can be helpful if you have the time to continuously monitor your offers and adjust accordingly at your other outs. But it's far from being comparable to a -105 or -107 shop like it used to be. Maybe I'm missing something though and I'm open to hearing others' opinions. I don't consider myself an expert at this stuff and would like to learn.
At matchy, you'll get fukked no matter what you do if you're not careful. example, if you post offer on OSU +106 instead of the current -102, 1 hr before game time. It will NOT get matched.. it will just sit there.. UNLESS...... the line is moving against you, then it gets gobbled up so fast and will close at OSU +114 and you are stuck with what you thought was a good # at OSU +106..
You will not win at matchy unless you really know what you're doing or else you'll always end up with a bad line 90% of the time. If you're always putting up offers, then you are way better off just betting it at pinny at that current line.
you're right Parlayin
exchanges are fabulous but if you're not in a position to be able to monitor the market you may well miss out on getting your bet down and if that's the case you probably should just take the best bookie price you can find
but one of the unique advantages of an exchange is that if you've determined that you need say -102 to justify a bet on something and the best available when you have to decide is only -110, being able to put up your offer at -102 is the way to go .. I find as often as not I end up getting matched when I do that
and despite what NS is saying I'm happy enough in that case to have been matched at -102 than not at all even if the final odds are +105
Actually that is what liquidity means. In a highly liquid market there are low spread offers on both sides all the time.
I don't dispute that you can put an offer up at the market level and it has a good chance of being accepted but that is not the same thing.
Here's something that will happen to you everyday at matchy..and many times, too.
Matchy line.
Seton Hall -162/Georgetown +143
Current pinny line
Seton Hall -156/Georgetown +146
So now you want Georgetown but you want them at +150. so you put offer at matchy for Georgetown +150.. Big play comes in on Georgetown..
Now pinny has Seton Hall -138/Georgetown +128...
you see, had you bet Georgetown at pinny at +146, you'd be laughing. instead, your offer of +150 of course never got matched. don't you regret not betting it at +146.. Now if you want Georgetown, you get it at +128 instead..
That's matchy for you..
getting money in and out of matchbook is real difficult. Is there a reduced juice book available for US players?
boys listen to this nicky santoro guy. i swear to god, he is one of, if not the best numbers guy here on sbr. he knows what he is talking about.
and that scenario could just as well have happened in reverse
and the prices could still reverse again
but yes, exchange betting does need a reasonably mature market to play in - 19c spreads are too great
CBB usually isn't playable, but if you put up an offer five cents off the Pinnacle line (put -105 up at +100), you'll often get at least some of it filled. For NBA and NBA 2H's, especially, I rarely have to look elsewhere. It's worth five minutes to put up an offer before the game cause you'll get enough taken to lower your juice costs. But if you don't put up offers you don't really "see" how much liquidity there is at MB.
mb is not your only out....1 tool in your arsenal
You're living in a fantasy world my friend. 95% of the time if you put a large offer and it gets matched, line will move against you..
Don't believe me, try it and see.
Go now to matchy and put up 5 offers for 5 NBA games tonight.. make the offers 5 cents better than pinny.. and watch what happens. If 3 of the 5 get matched, watch what pinny will close at tonight..and the 2 of the 5 that didn't get matched, i assure the line moved in your favor and that's why it didn't get matched.
Putting offers early at matchy is a lose lose situation 95% of the time..
Matchbook liquidity is whore shit
Never ever improved
Yes, this is exactly my point in starting this thread. During the Neteller days, there would be enough liquidity that MB essentially served as a reduced juice book. Now, you're fighting for scraps and have to deal w/ their deposit/withdrawal issues on top of that. People were always saying that exchanges are the future of online betting but that doesn't seem to be the case. Ultimately, if you're a U.S. customer playing over a nickel a pop and not taking square sides, you're laying -110...is this not true?
Last edited by parlayin; 01-29-11 at 04:40 PM.
That's not even close to being true.
Either 85% was a gross exagerration or you REALLY suck at handicapping.
I don't need to try it to see. I've been doing it exchanges for a decade.
If your betting style is based purely on trading then that's okay but for the more genuine player who is attempting to get the best price he can without having to spend all day monitoring markets then if he gets matched at his required price which he can't get elsewhere he's going to be happy enough.
spoken like someone with NFI and no experience of actually using them
Liquidity is bad for CBB. But if you are just trying to get 2K at the Pinny line for a Big 10 game, you should be able to do it almost every time. I just glanced at the game you mentioned, and if you like the OH St side, it would not be hard to beat the Pinny line for $2000. You just have to be willing to make an offer.
No need to put them down as you have the wrong idea about match and exchange's. For me Match is the best 1 out of all of em, even though there are some issues lately.
If it's so easy for anybody w/ an MB account to get an offer matched, why isn't that line already being offered? No one is exposing themselves because they're waiting to pounce on people's mistakes. The economics underlying the fact that you have to post an offer first because there is no liquidity tells you all you need to know. Which offers do you think get snatched up quickly--the ones that are +EV for you?
Chicken and egg really.
Market makers don't want to expose themselves to the type of situation that Nicky outlined. The fundamental problem is that Matchbook, unlike Betfair, doesn't have the weight of recreational players who will accept an offer 2 or 3 points away from the no-vig market price to give market makers balanced action.
Sorry to tell you but thats why you need more than 1 book, u wont get everything from 1 single book no matter how good they are. I love Match and do well there but i know how important it is to have multiple books. As good as Pinnacle is be damn sure you must have others as well and i dont mean a couple. Just my thought on this subject.
Maybe because people like you are scared shitless to make an offer.
In my case, yes. In your case, I guess not.Which offers do you think get snatched up quickly--the ones that are +EV for you?
Why did you create this thread? First you pretended like you were looking for a good out for CBB. Then you stated you started this thread to talk about how MB has no liquidity. That's what the thread title suggests as well.
MB sucks for CBB liquidity. For MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA it should be your #1 out if your typical bet is $2K and you are based in the U.S.
But I am guessing you are frustrated with losing at Matchbook and are here to bash them...
I apologize if the tone of my last post was out of line but I don't want this thread to get sidetracked and turn into a pissing match.
I'm frustrated w/ MB because what would make them more useful as an out, as they were in the Neteller era, is more liquidity. I'm not scared to make an offer...my offers just haven't been getting matched. I turned a 2k transfer into 5 figures in less than a week so it's not that I'm losing, but I do recognize those plays weren't from my offers. Like FLC said, it's a competitive market w/o the recreational players. My point is just that the notion that MB is the future of betting because why lay -110 when you can always get better than WA lines doesn't seem to be the case for even CBB tv games.
Here's another example of how matchy plays with your mind and if you're not sharp, they'll eat you alive. it's not just making offers, it's this too..
So many times you'll see this 20 min before tip off...Pinny has a line -7 +103.. matchy has same game - 7 +113 for up to 32,439$ available. now you wonder why. so you jump on it at matchy thinking this is a great # and you are happy.
well guess what?? hang on for a min. now check pinny at tip off.. they went from -7 +103, to -7 +117 now.. you just got fukked.
matchy will play with your mind, so make sure you are on your toes. this happens every hr at matchy.
Matchy is not as great as you all think it is. UNLESS you are a PRO at this game, you'll get eaten alive in there.
Holy Cow, i think i might be a really smart guy cause what i said usually happens, just happened again in the last 5 min.. Matchy had Bulls -7.5 +109. pinny had bulls -7.5-103/+7.5-107 for the last 30 min. so now you wonder why it's been off by 12 cents for the last 30 min? is matchy giving away free money?? No, not at all, because now pinny is -7.5 +104 and been moving agressively in the last 4 min..
everyone that played bulls at matchy all got suckered in.. not me.. they all thought they had a great #. this is why matchy will bankrupt you, unless you know what you're doing there.
but if you didn't have MB you may have just taken the -7 +103 at Pinnacle and congratulated yourself because it was better than at all the other books .. you'd still have been a lot better off having MB and taking -7 +113
nobody can be sure which way a line is going to move ... it can just as easily go the other way
the aim of the game for most players is to get the best price they can in the time available to them to bet and MB will frequently enable them to do that .. they don't have to hit the best price every time
leave it to the full-time traders to attempt to always hit at the very best price throughout the course of betting ... that's a different game altogether
Parlayin, liquidity on MB is flat out terrible for CBB. I don't see anyone denying that. If you wanted to get down bets at Pinny lines (for example, Pinny has -105 so you request -105 on MB) you might be able to get down more than half of your bets. That is terrible for an exchange.
You will have to look elsewhere to bet on CBB. For sports like NFL, NCAAF, NBA, MLB and even NHL, Matchbook is a must out. The MLB liquidity in particular is awesome.
If you can get a Pinny account, that is the way to go. You can also get a 5Dimes account and bet on their reduced juice lines ($500 max bet though). Their lines are often better than Pinny's for individual sides.
That does happen, but not as often as you suggest. And to say people will get "eaten alive" there is a little much as well.
Just think of all of the people who are getting "eaten alive" by betting into dimelines (-110) when they could be on Matchbook.
yes, with every book, lines move your way 50% of the time and the other way 50% of the time. However.. not at matchy.. as you just saw with bulls..if a line is 12 cents better than pinny, it's a trap 88% of the time. that line will move in a few minutes, i promise.. and then you'll get fukked.
you know where it's great to have matchy if you are not a pro, and you want good #'s.. here's an example.
pinny has -7.5 -115/+7.5 +105..
matchy has -7.5 -110/+7.5 +109.. so now whichever side you take, you'll beat pinny by 2-3 cents and the move will go 50-50 your way, not 5-95%..
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