[Sunde91]

I'll start stating the obvious: a 6th seed as 2.5 favs over a 2nd seed with 2 rings in last 5 years seems like an almost unfathomable amount of respect, but it still seems pretty fair, imo. Packers were 2nd favs to win the Super Bowl after their Wild Card win over the Eagles; they were 1st after their win over the Falcons and the Pats loss. And the Packers clearly have proved worthy of such respect from Vegas over the last month, but enough to be -2.5 on the heavy juice side over Pitt? Vegas must have a GOOD reason for it.

Stat Comparison:
(regular season only)

GB O vs. PITT D
GB O Rankings: Total - 9th (358.1); Scoring - 10th (24.2); Rushing - 24th (100.4); Passing - 5th (257.8)
PITT D Rankings: Total - 2nd (276.8); Scoring - 1st (14.5); Rushing - 1st (62.8); Passing - 12th (214.1)

PITT O vs. GB D
PITT O Rankings: Total - 14th (345.3); Scoring - 12th (23.4); Rushing - 11th (120.2); Passing - 14th (225.1)
GB D Rankings: Total - 5th (309.1); Scoring - 2nd (15); Rushing - 18th (114.9); Passing - 5th (194.2)

GB Differential: Total - +49; Scoring - +9.2; Rushing - (-)14.5; Passing - +63.6
PITT Differential: Total - +68.5; Scoring - +8.9; Rushing - +57.4; Passing - +11
http://www.nfl.com/stats/team

Strength Of Schedule/Power Rankings/Record vs. Top 10:

(Sargarin Schedule Rankings)
GB 9th
PITT 10th
(Sargarin Power Rankings)
GB 3rd
PITT 2nd

Wins vs. top 10: GB 7-3; PITT 4-4
http://www.usatoday.com//sports/sagarin/nfl10.htm


Angles For Steelers:

1) Experience. Clear. Ben has 2 rings with LeBeau (D-Coord), Ward, Harrison, Miller, Troy, and others. Tomlin and a good number of others have 1. Ben is 10-2 in the playoffs; Tomlin is 5-1 .

2) Run, Run, Run.
(A) Pitt can run the ball very well with Mendenhall (1273, 3.9 YPC, 13 TDs) and the 11th ranked Rush Offense
(B) GB also can't defend the run well, sitting at 18th (114.9) in rush D. They gave up 4.3 YPC against the Bears, but only 83 yards. If Bears kept running, could have been trouble for GB.

3) Stop The Run.
(A)1st in Run D at an amazing 62.8 YPG, 3.0 YPC. To put it in perspective, the next closest is CHI at 90.1.
(B) GB now has an average game with Starks, but he's not proven, and GB still went 24th (100.4) in rushing. To GB's benefit, they don't run a lot, and don't need to, but they have to do something on the ground, otherwise they could be in bad 2nd/3rd and long spots, and if they're not clicking, bad news.


Angles For Packers:

1) Pass, Pass, Pass.
(A) I don't think there's any question GB is the best passing team. They're only 5th, but Rodgers knocked out for 1.5 games + brutal schedule + brutal injuries dampened this. Packers probably have the best receiving core that's been together and consistent for 3-5 years (Driver, Jones, Nelson, Jennings). Rodgers top 3 QB, playing the best right now.
(B) Pitt is relatively bad at defending the pass. Being 12th (214.1) in Passing D is a compliment and distortion on reality. The top 2 passing teams they played this year were against NO (3rd passing/277.6) and NE (11th/240.4). Saints put up 288, 2 TDs on 34/44 (72%); NE put up 350, 3 TDs on 30/43 (70%). Outside these teams, PITT really didn't play another good passing team all year. To Close out the season from NE til now, they played Oakland, Buffalo, BALTx2, Jetsx2, Carolina, Clev. All of these teams are either terrible or suck at passing. They are all 20th or worse in passing (except Cincy at 13th). Now the League's Premier Passing Attack is coming at them. I see GB spreading them out 4 wide with their elite receivers and throwing 40+ times. They should be able to shred PITT all day.

2) Dome Sweet Home (cheesy sports headline type line +1 ) Clear advantage here for Packers and their pass game. Packers played in 4 dome games this year (but let's throw out DET game w/o Rodgers for a half for some statistical fairness). Against MINN (10th in pass D/210.4) and ATLx2 (22nd/226.6) GB averaged 337 yards on 80/103 (77%). That is amazing. And MINN has a better pass D than PITT, with ATL just 12 yards more per game. All 3 games obviously on the road, 1 in the playoffs (346, 31/36 86%). In PITT's only dome game @ Saints, they gave up 288, 2 TDs on 34/44 (72%). Again, see a 40+ pass game with GB shredding PITT D all game. And with turf, it will be just deadly.

3) More Tested/"Momentum". As we saw, GB is 7-3 vs. Sagarin top 10 teams (all playoff teams except for Giants). Pitt just 4-4. GB played 8/10 of those games on the road, with injuries. Insane record against quality opponents. 3 losses came @ NE, @ CHI, @ ATL. GB outgained and won TOP vs. all of them (including NE with Flynn) and already proved ATL and CHI losses were flukes. GB currently on a 5 game win streak (all against top 10 teams, last 3 on the road).

4) Edge In Offense. Passing, it's clear-cut. Running, PITT adv, but GB can put up some good yards on the ground with Starks. We do not know. But the major edge, I think, here is with play calling from the Offensive Coordinators. McCarthy has mastered this offense and gets Rodgers and team in a nice rythm early on. Bruce Arians for PITT calls a relatively bland offensive, does well with what he has, but isn't on McCarthy's level.

5) Vegas Respect. Again, a 2nd seed, 6 time Super Bowl winner (2 in 5 years), with an elite, clutch QB, is a 2.5 dog in the Super Bowl. Uh, what? Vegas knows something.

---

Defense - Equal. PITT > stats wise, but practically, I think they're equal. Both top 5 in total and scoring. 1 weak in pass, 1 weak in rush. Sacks, it's 1st and 2nd. PITT 48, GB 47. Both Ds will probably have an equally tough time sacking the QB. Ben tough to get down, escapes easily. Rodgers quick, mobile. And D-Coords LeBeau and Capers are maybe the two best in the league, and a worthy match.

PITT against a real opponent in Super Bowl. Just thoughts on them having to play NFC West teams Seattle and Arizona for their last two Super Bowls. Come on. Guess how many pass yards AZ threw on them. 374. PITT's pass D has been in the shitter since that game (they were #1 in 2008). And Ben has this image of being so clutch, but went 9/21 123 and 2 INTs vs. Seattle in that game. Seattle was just so bad it didn't matter. Still credit for drive against Zona, but in that game there was practically a 14 point swing on the very last play of the half with Warner's pick 6 on the ONE yard line 1st and goal. That is an epic back-breaker, and PITT only won by 3 off a last minute drive. PITT's had their run of shit teams/luck, now it's over.

Conclusion: Strong lean on GB. Thinking ML @ -130 better. Passing game in dome will be way too much for PITT. Vegas mad respect for GB. Feel it's GB's time here over PITT's. I rode GB over ATL and CHI for only two playoff plays, sticking with them again here.

[ejfel01]

Nice write-up, thanks.
Leaning towards packers as well, only I'm listening to my heart and not to numbers.

[FilletMaster]

nice. agreed, packers all the way ,,, they should win by 7

[nflgeeko]

Wohooo for Packers .. i still believe they can!!

[Numbnuts]

Holy cow, great effort there.

Thanks for sharing.

[dwang0725]

Nice write up. GB definitely looks stronger on paper. But until they play the game...

[thebestthereis]

vegas just cannot make the line where it should be because all the steeler backers out there, -2.5 is a gift in my opinion. good luck!

[Mr Handicapable]

Still credit for drive against Zona, but in that game there was practically a 14 point swing on the very last play of the half with Warner's pick 6 on the ONE yard line 1st and goal. That is an epic back-breaker, and PITT only won by 3 off a last minute drive. PITT's had their run of shit teams/luck, now it's over.

Nice work! I still say Harrison rolled in from the half yard line on that int. return w/NO TIME on the clock(Fitzgerald on the tackle attempt).....watched that return about 15 times!

For this SB....Mendenhall will probably help Pitt stay in the game just like Turner did for Atlanta in their 1st matchup! GB will be able to spread out those huge LBs and throw it all over the place but they continually TURTLE UP 2H and don't put teams away! Thats how you get beat 6 times by a total of 15 points! They almost choked the playoff games w/Philly & Chicago as well! This is NOT A COINCIDENCE!! I have a sizeable GB future to win the SB already but I really fear another late rally by Big Rapist in this one as McCarthy stands there w/his thumb up his a$$ trying not to lose! I about lost it at the house watching Starks run sideways on every 1st/2nd down 4Q vs the Bears! As much as I hate Pitt...may have to make hedge play on them?? I won't put another $ on GB!!

[lamanax]

Pouncey's return is important. B.J. Raji will crush the backup Legursky.

[msec512]

Nice writeup. I also am on the Packers.

[INVEGA MAN]

very scary is when everybody on the same team. thats all i hear is packers will win and have advantage

[KC Needs Hockey]

Thanks for the right up great insight would give points but dont have any thanks will have to do

[Brock Landers]

excellent write up sunday, i also like GB!

[frognose20]

great write up. Thank you

[knelson]

This should be a great game. Hard to pick against the steelers as they've been in this situation before.

[Macnqueso]

very good write up. thank you

[k13]

I thought they are playing on real grass???

[bachngocduong]

over

[Sunde91]

Thanks.

Can't believe this ML has gone up after seemingly so many took PITT ML instead of the points.

Pouncey's return is important. B.J. Raji will crush the backup Legursky.

Yeah, forgot to mention that, but I really can't say if it will hurt them that much. Legursky weighs 315 (9 lbs more than Pouncy), while Raji is 337. And neither are very experienced, so Raji could have his way either way. And I read Legursky is a fairly competent back-up. Still obviously hurts them, though.

very scary is when everybody on the same team. thats all i hear is packers will win and have advantage

I'm seeing pretty even action on the side with PITT ML getting more action % wise.

In any case, means zero in the end.

I thought they are playing on real grass???

I honestly cannot confirm this anywhere. I don't see how it matters a whole lot either way, if you're thinking this is where the dome field advantage comes in. The advantage comes from the controlled environment that favors the passing game.

[vitalyo]

Nice preview, thanks !

I was gonna go with GB but i see Brock Landers is all over them .
I might just bet O/U

GL.

[aceking]

packers all the way !!!

[frankzig]

nice thoughts,yes numbers do bear out GB well see in a week

[floridagolfer]

Nice job with all the stats and facts, but then you wasted all that effort at the end by picking a winner based on . . . nothing.

[sweethook]

very good input , well a lot of the sb's are blow outs. so id lean to the better passing team. but this is not a game to step out on, its so 50/50 lot of other games be4 and after sb , becarefull guys as allways GL

[rickbo528]

I think the law of averages catches up to the Steelers in this one. Throw stats out the window. No matter what stats say the Steeler Defense can be thrown on and especially by quality QBs. (Brady and Brees) Even mediocre Sanchez was moving the ball in the 2nd half. When you look at the last 2 Super Bowls the Steelers were in they got all the breaks. The refs vs Seattle and Warner's dumb throw vs Arizona. Unless Rodgers just blows up and plays horribly Packers could win going away. I said COULD not definately. The Steeler's Super Bowl record speaks for itself but sooner or later you have to eventually have the breaks go against you. I just think this is the time when things will go wrong for them.

[No coincidences]

vegas just cannot make the line where it should be because all the steeler backers out there, -2.5 is a gift in my opinion. good luck!

57% of the betting public currently on GB at -2.5.

Where "should the line be"?

[asiangambler]

good luck bro

[marcoloco]

nice write up

[raidersfan]

Nice Write Up

[alukk]

And when pitt wins you will say they were lucky because they played a 6 seed team. Good write up btw but before making it you already had your angle, and you found the ways to put the stats together to make you look that your angle was correct. It will be a nice game to watch.

[KingKolzig]

this guy is right. so many close losses for the packers even with a tough schedule and injury after injury. they are possibly a 14-2 team. should be Packers -6, but i think they win by 10+

[Sunde91]

And when pitt wins you will say they were lucky because they played a 6 seed team. Good write up btw but before making it you already had your angle, and you found the ways to put the stats together to make you look that your angle was correct. It will be a nice game to watch.

Why would I say they were lucky? GB is the most legit team Pitt has played in the playoffs since fukin 2005 when they won @ #1 Colts (I would guess that's the last time they were dogs too? I guess dogs at Broncos in AFCCG, but much smaller).

For the rest of your post, I believe it is called capping, where you find the side with > angles, dunno.

Sorry I didn't pick your team, bro.

this guy is right. so many close losses for the packers even with a tough schedule and injury after injury. they are possibly a 14-2 team. should be Packers -6, but i think they win by 10+

Yeah, largest losses for them was 4 points x2, both without Rodgers. Also never trailed by more than 7 in any game. This would be more significant if they were +3.5 or something, but still helps show they will be right in it throughout if down, unless they're leading for most/whole game.

[onetrickpony]

another reason sunde likes gb cause they have a white coach

[drew17]

great write-up but my money will be on the steelers

[Iona]

Nice write up, lean Green Bay as well.