[Fed_42420]

Good Luck, I think Steelers will pull out a close one though! Could go either way

[Scorpion]

Pouncey's return is important. B.J. Raji will crush the backup Legursky.

Not really
even if Pouncey was playing he would need help blocking the 377 pound Raji
Legursky is slower than Pouncey but stronger

[Scorpion]

Steelers 14th ranked pass defense was actually much better in the 2nd half of the season
In the 1st 9 weeks opponents completed 67% of their passes, after week 9 their D coord made some adjustments and opponents completed less than 54% of their passes

GB has 16 players on injured reserve, they will not be able to run the ball, they dont use their TE much, its Rodgers and their 4 WRs, dont u think one of the best defensive coords in the game has enough time to game plan for GBs one dimentional offense?

Some people say GB plays great in doom stadiums and their records is 11-6 under McCarthy but 4 of those wins are against Detroit. I can make a case for GB winning this game but I can make an even stronger case for Pitt winning it.

I would rather take the team that can run the ball and stop the run

---------

[Dirty Sanchez]

Nice writeup...but just a warning...Mr Landers also like Green Bay

[2Bdown]

thanks for the right up bud

[INVEGA MAN]

like i said 6 out of 10 on the Packers. the biggest advantage for this game is the quarterback and its Big Ben. He has been their before and he will do what it takes to win. I just watched NFL station on his last Super Bowll win and he was something else on that last drive. wow wow.

[Cris_from_Europe]

Steelers got this one

[msec512]

I'm going with the Packers & over

[ebbearsfb1]

rodgers is one shot from watching the game from the bench

[Sunde91]

Thoughts on how Overrated the "Experience" Factor May Be.

The top thing I'm hearing on PITT's #1 angle is experience. ESPN, NFL Network, cappers, whomever; they're all saying experience will be the deciding factor. Is experience important? Yes. Would you rather have it than not? Of Course. But it is being hyped up as this end all be all advantage that cannot be overcome.

And by experience, I, and I assume others, mean Super Bowl experience. If we're talking just playoffs, McCarthy has played in the same # of playoff games as Tomlin, so it's not like McCarthy has no clue.

To address this, let's look at some recent past examples of experience vs. inexperience in the Super Bowl.

2007 Giants (+12) over Pats. This is a prime example that shows how overrated experience can be. The Pats had Belichick, Brady, and a good portion of the team all with 3 Super Bowl Titles. NYG had what? Strahan and very few other players leftover from the 2000 Super Bowl loss. Yet were they at all fazed despite basically zero Super Bowl experience? Nope. Was there preparation affected? Maybe a little in terms of unfamiliarity, but nothing that wasn't overcome. I mean Eli Manning is a fuking goof, and possibly has down syndrome, yet he made one of the biggest plays on the biggest drives in Super Bowl History to win the game. And 3-time Super Bowl winner Brady was where? Getting his ass beat in cause his veteran O line couldn't handle a tough pass rush (sounds like Packers) and gave up 5 sacks. How did 3-time Super Bowl winner, super genius Belichick, fair against the perceived to be incompetent, zero experience Coughlin? Outcoached. 3 time winner lost to a zero experience team and a QB with downs. Experience is bunk.

2009 Saints (+4.5) over Colts. Not as good an example as the last one, but apt. Colts had just won the Super Bowl 3 years prior, with much of the same players, including Caldwell at HC (he was QB/assitant HC), ultra veteran Offensive Coord Tom Moore, much of the Oline, Wayne, Clark, Addai, and the presumed embodiment of QB perfection, Peyton Manning. Saints had what? Zero experience. Yet Brees threw for a Super Bowl record in efficiency on 32-39 (82%), 2 TDs, 0 INT. The christ child, Manning, threw 31/45 (68%), 1 TD, and the pick 6 that sealed in for the Saints.

2001 Pats (+14) over Rams. Don't remember much, but the hype was veterans Warner and Martz at HC/OC, who won it two years prior, would tear apart Belichick (in 2nd season) and Brady (1st year starting). Not.

1997 Broncons (+11) over Packers. Packers had virtually same team that won Super Bowl the year before. The only one with experience on Broncos was Elway, who hadn't played in Super Bowl since 1989.

And these are sizeable dogs winning outright. Packers are 2.5 favs. Don't think Vegas factors in "experience"? And they still make GB favs? And they're moving the line to the death number of -3?

Now let's go back further and look at some favs with inexperience vs. dogs with experience (just like GB vs. PITT).

1974 Steelers (-3) over Vikings. Vikings in 3rd Super Bowl, came off a loss the year prior. Steelers 1st Super Bowl. Steelers won 16-6.
1976 Raiders (-4) over Vikings. Vikings in 4th Super Bowl, their 3rd in 4 years. Raiders hadn't been there in 10 years and had no common players or coaches. Raiders won 32-14.
1992 Cowboys (-6.5) over Bills. Bills were in their 3rd straight Super Bowl. Cowboys were in their first Super Bowl in 14 years. Cowboys won 52-17.

Sure you can find a ton of teams with experience who won over the team with inexperience, but most, if not all, were favorites and significantly better than the other team. Not the case with GB/PITT.

Experience is overrated.

[Scorpion]

You have no chance of cashing your GB ticket
Trust me

[8ArIvd5]

Thanks for ending with examples of Pitt D getting shredded through the air and still pulling out the win. I'll have Pittsburgh during the game, and ( . Y . ) after.

[Scorpion]

rodgers is one shot from watching the game from the bench

3 concussions this yr

[Sunde91]

Steelers 14th ranked pass defense was actually much better in the 2nd half of the season

I addressed this three times, and you still spout this garbage.

They played who in the 2nd half of the season? Either overall dog shit or shit passing teams.

Oakland, Buffalo, BALTx2, Cincy, Jetsx2, Carolina, Clev.

Not a one of those teams are top 20 passing (outside joke cincy).

Sanchez just dropped 289 on 20-33, 2 TD, 0 INT, in 10 degree weather, IN PITT. That's 86 yards above their passing average for the season (ranked 22nd @ 202) and 75 above PITT's Pass D average (12th ranked @ 214).

Two years ago, in the Super Bowl, Cardinals were the best pass team #1 ranked Pass D PITT played all year, and what happened? Warner went 31/43 (72%) for 377, 3 TD, 1 INT. Epic performance, and a winning one, if not for one mistake that gift wrapped the game for PITT. So much for the genius Lebeau and his 2 weeks to prepare

This year, two best pass teams were NO and NE. How did they do? Saints put up 288, 2 TDs on 34/44 (72%); NE put up 350, 3 TDs on 30/43 (70%).


I really, REALLY wonder what's going to happen when Rodgers brings the best pass game in the league into a dome...one of the great fukin mysteries of the world.

And let's not forget, also, that GB is the best playoff team PITT has played in the last 5 years.

They are the most balanced, most talented, and it is not close.

Not a single team team Steelers played in the playoffs since 2005 (Cincy, Colts, Denver, Seattle, Jags, Chargers, Ravens, Cardinals, Ravens, Jets) were top 10 in both offense and defense. Packers are. And I would bet Packers played the toughest schedule of all of those teams.

Look it up. http://www.nfl.com/stats/team

[Scorpion]

They played who in the 2nd half of the season? Either overall dog shit or shit passing teams.

Oakland, Buffalo, BALTx2, Cincy, Jetsx2, Carolina, Clev.

Not a one of those teams are top 20 passing (outside joke cincy).

You dont get it pal

ask yourself who the **** did the play int he 1st half when the opposing QBs were completing 67% of their passes

[Scorpion]

When NE beat NYJ 45-3 in the rg season you probably thought the same will happen in the playoffs

[Scorpion]

How about GBs shitty run defense?

[kahnner]

How about GBs shitty run defense?

That's all you do is bash the packers.
I remember you saying the falcons would win how did that work out for you?
I'm sure you had the bears too!

[Goat Milk]

57% of the betting public currently on GB at -2.5.

Where "should the line be"?

i've always wondered where you get your stats from. my numbers show different. plus, you already know that most of public will place their bets over the weekend, not a week in advance.

why are you wasting your time looking at line movement/public numbers? You want to see what Vegas is leaning right? Vegas is obviously thinking Green Bay is going to win.

[ebbearsfb1]

Vegas is hoping for 1 or 2 point gb win... that ain't happening if it does I ain't watching nfl ne more

[Scorpion]

That's all you do is bash the packers.
I remember you saying the falcons would win how did that work out for you?
I'm sure you had the bears too!

LO

LIAR

[GunShard]

Do you like the Over 44?

Aaron Rodgers in a dome stadium will help the Packers score very high.

When Big Ben played in the last two Super Bowls, the MVP went to his recievers. Hines Ward in their first win, Santonio Holmes in their second win.

If the Packers were a running team like the Ravens, who also have strong run defense, then this would be an under. As seen between the Steelers and Ravens rivalry that has been low scoring games.

I believe that this could be another shootout like in the 2009 Packers vs Steelers game.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/results/2009-2010/boxscore26592.html

[Sunde91]

I don't think it will be a shoot out, but could go over like 27-20. Don't have much of an opinion on total, outside thinking PITT will probably be held to 17 points or less.

The last game last year was an anomaly for both sides. Just look at the pass attempts. Rodgers threw 48 times. Ben through 46 times; that's like double his average attempts.

Big Ben threw 500 yards and Rodgers for about 400...Big Ben won't get half of that this game, but think Rodgers can get 300+.

GB had the 5th ranked pass D (same as this year), so it's not like their pass D was just that bad last year. It was a fluke. Their cornerbacks and overall secondary are also playing very well right now.

PITT improved a little bit from 16th in Pass D to 12th this year.

It was a game where the up tempo was established and both teams just ran with it.

[GunShard]

Aaron Rodger's passing vs Steelers passing defense yards (12th rank)
Packer's rushing team vs Steelers rushing defense yards (1st rank)
Big Ben's passing vs Packers passing defense yards (5th rank)
Mendenhall's rushing vs Packers rushing defense yards (18th rank)

The Packers are a passing team, the Packers will score high on the Steelers 12th rank passing defense.

As the Steelers are a balanced team and were a rushing team without Big Ben, the Steelers will score high over the Packers if they become a rushing team over the Packers 18th rank rushing defense.

Aaron Rodgers ability to run and avoid being sacked.
Big Ben's ability to shurg off sack attempts due to his size advantage. Will be a factor for the high scoring game.

[Statman]

Lots of good opinions and information in this thread.

Thanks for sharing guys!!

[PlatinumBerg]

Steelers are taking it.

[pavyracer]

Good luck with the play Sunde!

[Mr Handicapable]

The Packers have more talent with their receivers/corners which is all-important if neither team can do much on the ground! I don't see Mendenhall going crazy because GB's corners are so good they can handle Pitt's WR's one-on-one....allowing GB to stack the box vs the run! GB on the other hand will run Pitt's secondary ragged....Polamalu and those 260 pound LBs can only help those corners so much with covering on that fast turf!

Tom Brady vs Pitt = 350 yards
Tom Brady vs GB = 163 yards

GB has 2 problems that could stop them on Sunday!

1. Rodgers got up slow from a glancing hit 1H vs Chicago! First time he scrambled on turf vs Detroit earlier got smashed and missed 2 games!
2. More importantly....GB doesn't put people away? McCarthy has a Ferrari but he's scared to leave it in 5th gear on the AutoBahn? 6 losses by a total of 15 points and they tried to give away the Philly & Chicago playoff games too? Pitt is battle tested and will play for 60 minutes so GB needs to as well!
The Madden game has Pitt rallying 4Q to win 24-20! I say their rally falls short....GB 27-24 although GB has the talent advantage for a beatdown!!

[stikymess]

excellent write up sunday, i also like GB!

Kiss of death?

[Sunde91]

Just waiting for ML to come down.

The PITT money will come. The PITT money WILL come

[Sunde91]

Just waiting for ML to come down.

The PITT money will come. The PITT money WILL come

AND...it's basically now -3 across the board with a ML as high as -152 at Pinny..
ML is firmly in PITT's favor action wise @ 60-70%+, the side is no greater than 55% on GB, so there has to be just huge money coming in on GB.

Pinnny haning PITT +3 -110 for a game like this is just unconscionable.

[Scorpion]

Kiss of death?

Sunde91 IS ******

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Steelers allow only 62.8 yards per game on the ground. It’s obvious that Super Bowl line odds makers believe the Packers’ wide receivers will have a big impact on the game because 44 ½ points is a lot of points in a contest between the 2nd ranked D in the league, Pittsburgh, and the 5th ranked D in the league,Green BayThe line for Super Bowl total of 44 ½ will go either up or down depending on how sports handicappers view Green Bay’s passing game versus Pittsburgh’s secondary.I’m not ready to say how much of an impact Green Bay’s wide receivers will have on the total assigned to the game.What I am ready to say is that if the total stays at over 44,that most football bettors believe Green Bay’s wide receivers are going to be very effective versus the Steelers’ D because Green Bay’s best shot (only shot?)of putting points on the board on February 6th is through their passing game.

[Capybara]

Let's keep at least this ONE solid ANALYSIS-based thread going!

I'm trying to find an edge, but honestly, I feel like this is the hardest SB to 'cap in a long time. There's an even number of reasons to go with either side or either total!

[Sunde91]

Officially -3 across the board with -150 best price outside matchy. +3 Pinny -109. Insane.
20 cent ML climb in a week

The amount of Big money on GB has to be ungodly to move it to 3. Most of the PITT backers have taken the ML, but now they're raising the ML even more AND giving bettors +3 @ -120 to -110.

% wise, if volume were proportional, Vegas would get buried on a PITT ML win with 60-70% plus slamming it. But since it keeps going up, only can mean Big time money is on GB. And I did hear a rumor Billy Walters placed a large some on GB ML