1. 01-20-11 01:05 PM #1
    VegasInsider
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    Consider This My NHL Game of the Year!

    Now with goaltender confirmation...I've fell in love with this play tonight:

    Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders OVER 5.5 (-115)


    DiPietro and Holtby between the pipes tonight on the island and both of these defenses have been anemic as of late. The Islanders have had 7 of the 10 go over the number and the Caps are starting to show a little more urgency with the puck. I know Semin is out, but Ovie is starting much smarter and I think he's in for a good night of hockey tonight. This will only be RD's third game since the New Year and this is the best offense he's seen early December vs. Boston. His two recent wins and stats can be slightly overlooked, since they came against Calgary and Buffalo, who can't get out of their own way on offense. DiPietro hasn't been practicing much with a sore groin and should get 'lit up' tonight at home. On the other end of the ice is Braden Holtby, recently called up from Hershey (AHL) and he sports a nice 3.84 GAA and .845 SV% this season in 3 starts and 2 replacement stints. He allowed 5 vs. NJ and 3 vs. Atlanta back in November. His season stats in the AHL look impressive, but lately, not so much. He has a GAA of almost 3 since the New Year and a SV% about .920 - but these are the big boys and he'll be going up against a resurgent Caps team that has the best player in the world starting to look much better. The Islanders have given up an average of 4.5 GPG the last 5 and over 3 GPG in home games this season. Both PK's have been HORRIBLE as of late as well...let's hope for some penalties!

    Goodluck if you choose to play!
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  2. 01-20-11 01:14 PM #2
    Deuce
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    I like it. BOL
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  3. 01-20-11 01:16 PM #3
    obamaismyuncle
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    looks easy. good luck
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  4. 01-20-11 01:18 PM #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by obamaismyuncle View Post
    looks easy. good luck
    That's the scary thing. Hope this minor leaguer doesn't stand on his tonight and make a name for himself!
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  5. 01-20-11 01:24 PM #5
    frizzelli
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    That's the scary thing. Hope this minor leaguer doesn't stand on his tonight and make a name for himself!
    Maybe if you win you can pay back the guy you are currently stiffing.
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  6. 01-20-11 01:40 PM #6
    illfuuptn
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    You need some GOY's if you want to come back from your deficit. Respect me yet?
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  7. 01-20-11 01:41 PM #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by frizzelli View Post
    Maybe if you win you can pay back the guy you are currently stiffing.
    Thank you for your concern, but I'm not 'stiffing' anyone. I've been in contact with him and he'll be paid the remainder of the loan BEFORE the due date.
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  8. 01-20-11 01:42 PM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by illfuuptn View Post
    You need some GOY's if you want to come back from your deficit. Respect me yet?
    HA...no, not yet. You have been on a nice run and I congratulate you on that. I'm down a couple games, I wouldn't consider that a big deficit.
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  9. 01-20-11 01:44 PM #9
    frizzelli
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    Question you are an obvious ghost, Man up and tell us who you are.
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  10. 01-20-11 01:51 PM #10
    VegasInsider
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    No ghost here, frizzelli. First time I ever saw this site was about a month ago, when I joined. Not quite sure who you're looking for?
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  11. 01-20-11 01:52 PM #11
    rake922
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    GAME OF THE YEAR

    GOY * 100x 5 star play of the year!. Call now!
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  12. 01-20-11 01:54 PM #12
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    Didn't mean to tout this play...but just wanted to point out the goalie's and stats supporting the play. Better then most people that just post a play and no show if it loses.
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  13. 01-20-11 02:26 PM #13
    keyboarding
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    Questionable play. WSH's offense has looked completely out of sync without Semin and Okposo's return may cause line shuffling that could throw off any chemistry NYI have established without him.

    Holtby hasn't been great but the kid is a huge prospect in that system and with injuries to both Varlamov and Neuvirth he could see this as a legitimate opportunity, not to mention it's against one of the less impressive offenses in the league.

    I like WSH TT over more than game total because you know you're counting on WSH to do the bulk of the work to cover 5.5, why not just take NYI out of the equation?
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  14. 01-20-11 02:32 PM #14
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    I would have loved to play Wash TT, but my local does not offer TT's. I do have coin offshore, but I'd rather not put all my eggs in one basket. I think Tavares can get some good shots on net tonight, as I expect NYI to put up close to 35 SOG tonight. There should be A TON of SOG tonight, maybe close to 75 total?
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  15. 01-20-11 02:38 PM #15
    illfuuptn
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    As much as I dislike this guy, I'm going to have to stand up for him. He never shops plays around like this. He's simply saying he likes this game very much and you're welcome to bet it if you so choose. I think I'm a slightly better handicapper but, that being said, if he releases a play he's very confident on then it is certainly a +ev bet. It's definitely good value when someone never releases plays but then comes out with an NHL total GOY. Solid write-up. Solid pick. I hope you lose lol.
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  16. 01-20-11 02:41 PM #16
    stevek173
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    The kid seems to have some steam and wow what a spreadsheet.

    BOL guey.

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  17. 01-20-11 02:44 PM #17
    keyboarding
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    I do have coin offshore, but I'd rather not put all my eggs in one basket.
    But I thought this was your NHL Game of the Year?
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  18. 01-20-11 02:47 PM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by keyboarding View Post
    But I thought this was your NHL Game of the Year?
    True, but you still don't lay everything on the line. It's one of the strongest plays I've made.
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  19. 01-20-11 02:49 PM #19
    Rod1010
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    gl man
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  20. 01-20-11 02:55 PM #20
    goldtrader67
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    I like WASH
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  21. 01-20-11 08:27 PM #21
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    Sorry fellas, laid an egg on that one. Have to get 'em next time!
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  22. 01-20-11 09:44 PM #22
    goldtrader67
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    i took WASH and made a little, guess i lucked into it
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  23. 01-20-11 09:48 PM #23
    DrStale
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    Annnnd SBR plays of the year fall to a 39% clip.
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  24. 01-20-11 10:01 PM #24
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    At least I came back and admitted defeat. Of the 61% of losses...I'm guessing 97% don't come back to the thread.
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  25. 01-20-11 10:07 PM #25
    Rod1010
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    cant win em all
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  26. 01-20-11 10:14 PM #26
    FlashinLeather
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    even when it looks sweet it can go sour, i'm sure it hurts a bit more because of the title of the thread, get em next time vegas
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  27. 01-20-11 10:32 PM #27
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    No worrier Leather...it was a strong monetary play, but I loved the play more than units could express. At least I showed some discipline and kept to my money management theory. We'll get them tomorrow!
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  28. 01-20-11 10:33 PM #28
    DrStale
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    At least I came back and admitted defeat. Of the 61% of losses...I'm guessing 97% don't come back to the thread.
    Fair point. BOL.
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  29. 01-20-11 11:11 PM #29
    jjgold
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    Golden Rule in gambling

    If you like overs pass on game

    Get-em next game Son
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  30. 01-20-11 11:15 PM #30
    tblues2005
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    I know you will bounce back. We will get them next time.
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  31. 01-20-11 11:27 PM #31
    jeffksu
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    hey..better luck next time and you thought it was a good play and admitted a loss..keep firing away..
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  32. 01-20-11 11:43 PM #32
    VegasInsider
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Golden Rule in gambling

    If you like overs pass on game

    Get-em next game Son
    Here's the thing with my handicapping. I eliminate games by only focusing on OVERS. Instead of trying to find the right side on every single game, I focus on one aspect and find games based on that. It's especially helpful when there are 100+ college games on a Saturday. Just another way of looking at things I suppose.

    Thanks for the support, fellas. We'll get 'em tomorrow for sure! Take a look at my spreadsheet, it's been a good run since New Years (not so much tonight, haha)
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  33. 01-21-11 12:20 AM #33
    muldoon
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    I don't consider this play to be in the "Guys I LOVE THIS ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" type picks. You provided reasoning for your pick, and it didn't pan out in the end.

    Had the Isles done anything on the pp, could have been in the bag at the start of the 3rd.

    Bounce back Friday.
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  34. 01-21-11 12:22 AM #34
    Tree Rollins
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    Hey this shit happens sometimes. I've had plays like this happen to me, not where i posted or anything but where i felt really really strong and it lost. And after the game, i still feel like i would make the same play again. If you feel like that, then don't sweat it cuz you'll hit these more often then not.
    Last edited by Tree Rollins; 01-21-11 at 12:59 AM.
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  35. 01-21-11 12:51 AM #35
    keyboarding
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    I still think it was a very questionable play.
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