1. 01-15-11 11:31 PM #1
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    Overbetting

    Valuable lesson learned today by myself. Had a break even day in college basketball unfortunately after a bad break in a couple games. Instead of being happy and watching football for fun I steam with Baltimore and then chase with Atlanta

    Lesson: Stick to what you know best/have a model of
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-15-11 11:32 PM #2
    sideloaded
    staring into the abyss
    sideloaded's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-10
    Posts: 7,561
    Betpoints: 0

    What model do you have?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-15-11 11:33 PM #3
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    my power rating model of college basketball of basically every team outside of a few
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-15-11 11:43 PM #4
    Chugs
    Chugs's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-09
    Posts: 1,560
    Betpoints: 594

    Should have stuck with the steam on GB
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-15-11 11:44 PM #5
    sideloaded
    staring into the abyss
    sideloaded's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-10
    Posts: 7,561
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    my power rating model of college basketball of basically every team outside of a few
    Does your power rating take into account the spread?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-15-11 11:45 PM #6
    onlooker
    I'm still watching...
    onlooker's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 36,572
    Betpoints: 4651

    Never add on.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-15-11 11:46 PM #7
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    yeah, it's a general number. I'd say over 90% of the lines that come out are within a couple points of my model.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-15-11 11:49 PM #8
    Reload
    Winning Aint Easy
    Reload's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-23-08
    Posts: 12,184
    Betpoints: 14852

    Happens all the time, TPowell. Takes discipline to put a losing day behind and remember there will be a lot more opportunities. We're here for you - better to let steam off here and you'll get through it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-15-11 11:50 PM #9
    sideloaded
    staring into the abyss
    sideloaded's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-10
    Posts: 7,561
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    yeah, it's a general number. I'd say over 90% of the lines that come out are within a couple points of my model.
    I dont know man shouldn't you be posting in the think tank if you're smart enough to build a model that good?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-15-11 11:52 PM #10
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    think tank= line shopper/math guys
    players talk= venting/fun talk
    sports forums= posting plays/helping others out


    My model is about my knowledge of the game, no real genius math at all
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 01-15-11 11:54 PM #11
    sideloaded
    staring into the abyss
    sideloaded's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-10
    Posts: 7,561
    Betpoints: 0

    Isn't a model all math?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 01-15-11 11:57 PM #12
    doublej95
    Co Power Poster 2011
    doublej95's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-10
    Posts: 14,094
    Betpoints: 19

    happens to all of us even when we know better. just have to shake it off and move on.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 01-16-11 07:11 AM #13
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    College Hoops is for suckers

    It does everyone in

    You cannot predict performance of kids
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 01-16-11 07:13 AM #14
    Glitch
    Glitch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-08-09
    Posts: 11,790
    Betpoints: 5224

    also a problem can be betting on a good team or player against one you dont know too well just based on the merits of the good team. as opposed to having a good read on both opponents.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 01-16-11 08:38 AM #15
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,988
    Betpoints: 68557

    See people bet more because it is the playoffs all the time. Never really understood that.Lines are tighter,both teams have full focus and high emotion.
    No edge,and double your bet.
    I just don't see the logic.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 01-16-11 09:00 AM #16
    franklu
    franklu's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-11-11
    Posts: 11
    Betpoints: 0

    What model?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »