1. 01-16-11 12:47 AM #36
    CapDees70
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    I say Seattle +9
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  2. 01-16-11 12:50 AM #37
    Dark Horse
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    After tonight the Packers are overrated in the public eye. The best scenario this Sunday would be a close come-from-behind win by Chicago. That would force the oddsmakers to give the nod to the Packers, and set up a perfect fade scenario; as in overrated GB versus battle-tested Chicago. (I was on GB against ATL)
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  3. 01-16-11 01:02 AM #38
    OmgUrMom
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    GB wont be 4.5 i know that much. 1 to 2.5 prolly
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  4. 01-16-11 01:04 AM #39
    KGambler
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    OK, I've almost given up. I'll try to dumb this down as much as I can. This is my last try.

    If you accept that the CHI/SEA ML is realistic, then you can assume that CHI is 80% to beat Sea. That means there is an 80% chance they will be hosting GB in the NFC championship game. So if there is a 50% chance or greater that they beat GB at home, then they have a 40% chance or greater to win the NFC. A 40% chance to win the NFC means they are +150 to win the NFC.

    So log into your 5Dimes account and bet them at +170 to win the NFC. Or log into Matchbook and bet them at +178.

    Or get a clue and realize that the linesmakers have already decided that Chicago would be an underdog at home to GB.
    Last edited by KGambler; 01-16-11 at 01:17 AM.
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  5. 01-16-11 01:06 AM #40
    Sunde91
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    Quote Originally Posted by KGambler View Post
    This is true. I keep telling people to look at the futures market.

    From 5Dimes RIGHT NOW:

    Chicago wins NFC +170
    Chicago does NOT win NFC -200

    Seattle wins NFC +1500
    Chicago does NOT win NFC -2300

    GB wins NFC -160
    GB wins NFC +140

    Going by Pinny's moneyline, Chicago is 80.63% to beat SEA. So we can say that GB is expected to face CHI 80.63% of the time and SEA 19.37% of the time.

    If you set GB and CHI as pick 'em, then GB would have to be over 99% to beat SEA (on the road) in order to come up with that +140/-160 market. There has never been such a moneyline in the entire history of the NFL.

    So unless you expect that GB would be -32000 (yes, 3 zeros) at SEA, then CHI can not be pick 'em or better against GB.

    The linesmakers are already telling you that GB will be a favorite. Looks like they figure them for -2.5ish.
    Very good, forgot that, proves 100% GB will be favs.
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  6. 01-16-11 01:37 AM #41
    iifold
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    There are 3, maybe 4 QB's that A.Rodgers will ever be an underdog too for the next couple years...

    Jay Cutler is not one of the..

    I think the Bears can make it a game, but also think Packers will be 2.5-3.5 point favorites..
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  7. 01-16-11 01:46 AM #42
    CanuckG
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    idiots thinking chicago is favoured are probably long-term losers at gambling....retards
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  8. 01-16-11 02:04 AM #43
    Jeffito11
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    you need someone to check your work.
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  9. 01-16-11 02:38 AM #44
    Art Vandelay
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
    After tonight the Packers are overrated in the public eye. The best scenario this Sunday would be a close come-from-behind win by Chicago. That would force the oddsmakers to give the nod to the Packers, and set up a perfect fade scenario; as in overrated GB versus battle-tested Chicago. (I was on GB against ATL)
    The pointspread value will definitely be on the Bears, catching 3+ points as a Championship game home dog (Has that ever happened before?) That said, the Pack will win by a TD and cover any inflated spread.
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  10. 01-16-11 09:46 AM #45
    Gilly86
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    Bears vs Jets
    +1500

    Bears vs Patriots
    +300

    Bears vs Steelers
    +600

    Packers vs Jets
    +900

    Packers vs Patriots
    +130

    Packers vs Steelers
    +250


    Futures clearly show GB will be a several point favorite.
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  11. 01-16-11 09:47 AM #46
    Powderguy
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    Chicago -1
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  12. 01-16-11 09:50 AM #47
    LT Profits
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    Packers -3 -125
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  13. 01-16-11 09:56 AM #48
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vandelay View Post
    The pointspread value will definitely be on the Bears, catching 3+ points as a Championship game home dog (Has that ever happened before?) That said, the Pack will win by a TD and cover any inflated spread.
    Yes it has and in both cases I remember on top of the head, the home dog got crushed (Patriots over Steelers, Packers over 49ers). This is the playoffs where the better team usually wins, so having the better team is more important than being home.
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  14. 01-16-11 09:59 AM #49
    D3 Mighty Ducks
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    This is going to be an absolute War. Green Bay -3.5 is my guess.
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  15. 01-16-11 10:08 AM #50
    crustyme
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    depends.

    if bears beat seahags by 4 tds, i can see them being favored -2.5. if they barely win then gb -3.

    if seahags win then gb -10.5
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  16. 01-16-11 10:10 AM #51
    hunterwrot
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    I'm all in baby
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  17. 01-16-11 10:16 AM #52
    jas19illini
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    dont get ahead of yourselves, my bears have a knack for playing down to their competition. seattle could put up quite the fight today.
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  18. 01-16-11 10:23 AM #53
    Lockitup1x
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    GB -3.5 or more is the only answer.
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  19. 01-16-11 10:28 AM #54
    Raleigh77
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    GB-2
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  20. 01-16-11 10:44 AM #55
    Serbone
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    If Bears blow out Seattle and it is windy (15-20mph) and cold (low 20's), GB -1.5
    If Bears blow out Seattle and it is not windy (5-10) and reasonably warm (35 degrees), GB -3
    If Bears squeek by Seattle and it is windy and cold GB - 3
    If Bears squeek by Seatle and it is not windy reasonably warm GB-4.5
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  21. 01-16-11 11:22 AM #56
    turnip
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    Gb -3.5
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  22. 01-16-11 01:24 PM #57
    KGambler
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    Right now the Bears are blowing out Seattle and you can still get:

    Packers do NOT win NFC +135

    or

    Chicago wins NFC +130

    on Matchbook. Pretty clear who will be the favorite, even if this game ends 49-0.
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  23. 01-16-11 01:24 PM #58
    d2bets
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    Gb -3+100
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  24. 01-16-11 01:29 PM #59
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Gb -3+100
    I think you juiced wrong side.
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  25. 01-16-11 01:45 PM #60
    raggman
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    the greek already has the game up--gb -3
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  26. 01-16-11 01:47 PM #61
    LT Profits
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    so d2bets is 5 cents closer than me.
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  27. 01-16-11 01:53 PM #62
    Roadtrip635
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    Line is already out GB -3 -115
    o/u 44

    at 5Dimes
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