[ShowMeDaMoney]

got pats 2-1 to win the super bowl which im feeling good about.

thinking about unloading on the patriots to win the afc at -140 odds

i see them beating the jets by double digits but would rather sit that game out and play them to win the afc - i know any given sunday but if i'm more than happy giving my money to the bookie if they lose to the jets, i gotta lay the -140 for them to beat the ravens or steelers at home right??

what do you guys figure the money lines would be in a game vs steelers or ravens in the afc championship game?

just dont see this team losing unless they beat themselves, and with a QB that very well not throw a single pick the entire post season, it's gonna be difficult to capitalize on turn overs. brady has the most offensive threats he's had to date...and seems to be playing his best ball. they are healty, confident and the jets have given bb and brady every reason to go out with something to prove this sunday.

thoughts???

[Art Vandeleigh]

They are a team on a mission, they have the talent this season to wipe out the memories of the loss to the Giants a couple of years ago, and they will do it with the greatest of ease.

[KGambler]

i see them beating the jets by double digits but would rather sit that game out and play them to win the afc -

Let's examine Pinnacle's lines and see what they are supposed to be telling us.

Baltimore ML +153
Pitt ML -170

This equates to Pitt winning 61.4% of the time and Balt winning 38.6%. So that's the "opinion" of the Pinny "market".


NYJ ML +346
NE ML -400

We get 78.1% for NE and 21.9% for the NYJ. So 78.1% of the time NE advances to the championship game (according to the Pinny market).


NE wins AFC -136
NE does not win AFC +123

So that market is saying NE will win the AFC 56.2% of the time. This is the percentage where a bet on either side will yield the same result (which is slightly negative due to the vig).

So from all this we gather that they think the AFC title game will, on average, have a "true" ML of about -257. Remember, that is assuming the opponent will be Pitt 6 out of 10 times and Bal 4 out of 10 times (the ML will depend on the opponent). Also remember that the moneyline on NE will not be available at -257. The moneyline on Pinnacle would be something like +250/-277 if they judged the "true" moneyline to be -257. But the -257 is a weighted average of 6/10 Pitt and 4/10 Baltimore anyway, so you would never actually see a true moneyline of -257 unless they judge a Pitt or Bal winner to be equal.

This means they are calculating NE as about -6.5 in the championship game (on average). What do you think about that? What you should do depends on your opinions on the following:

1. is there value in this week's moneyline?
2. do you think there will be value in next week's moneyline? against Pitt? against Bal? against both?
3. do you think Pinny is underestimating the average available moneyline of next week's NE opponent?
4. do you agree with Bal losing 6 out of 10 times (against Pitt)?

There are many factors to consider.


Short answer: if you think NE should beat the NYJ by double digits, then take NE on the spread for this week's game and also bet the prop.

I am tired so there could be a math error in here, but this gives you the idea of what you need to think about.

[zoso11871]

I like Pitt to take AFC.

[Sfritts8]

Rex Ryan's intellect is far superior to Bill Bellicheck and Cromartie hates Tom Brady, so the Jets will probably win.

[infamousbacardi]

Or just put that money on the Jets ML. I don't think they will win either, and I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Rex Ryan and his stupid overhyped over talked about Jets team, but at that price, your money is probably better off taking that risk.

[TheCommish]

Pats are playing very well. Brady is looking like the MVP at this point.

[FeelinJuiced]

I think the Pats at -140 is some serious value. The Jets won't even have a close game against them. Pittsturd would be their toughest competition if they get by Baltimore but I really don't see anyone stopping Bradys determination right now. BOL to you!

[Prop Bet Master]

Shitty value, they have to beat two very good road teams to get to the Super Bowl. I have a feeling the New York game will be closer than people think and they may just shock everybody and beat them. If they win that game then they will most likely play Pittsburgh, who despite being dominated by New England in recent meetings, has won 2 of the last 5 Super Bowls. If you already have them at 2-1 to win the Super Bowl, I would just stick with that.

[BettingWizard]

zero chance they make it

[woody78]

If you didn't already have the Pats 2-1 for the SB, I'd say go ahead, but netting the AFC side is sort of doubling up your losses if they go down. Why not take the #2 in the AFC (whoever you believe that is) and get some value in that in case NE goes down.

[CaptainPrice]

IMO

[BetWeather]

Jets will probably win.

[Redchevy]

NE wins the Lombardi this year hands down. No one is coming between Brady and the trophy, lay what you have to lay. This guy is on a mission!!!

[Starion]

Rex Ryan seems awfully confident. Problem with the patriots is that they're all about Brady. If he goes down they're done. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jets get dirty in this game and try to take Brady out. I know it sounds far fetched, but I remember Rich Gannon getting sat on by fat ass Siragusa that ended the Raiders season in the Championship game in 2000. Remember Buddy Ryan's bounty's?

If it looks too easy, it is...........

[spongerat]

pats win by a touchdown or more here

[KGambler]

I went throught the numbers today and I love this bet. I got it at -133 on Matchbook though. And it is still -135 at 5Dimes.

I also love them to win the SB at +160. Hit that at Matchbook as well, as well as at 5Dimes...

I have to look into it more, but the AFC -3.5 -110 in the Super Bowl looks juicy as well. That is up on 5Dimes. Don't want to have too much riding on the Pats though, so probably won't bet that...

[BettingWizard]

zero chance they make it