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Arguments for and against fixed games
This seems to have been an ongoing debate for fukking years. I want to settle this once and for all! I want to see reasonable arguments in here
-that there are fixed games and
-that there are not fixed games
I want to see well worded arguments and not just 'it's possible' or 'it can't be true'
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If anyone really thinks there are no fixed games then they are naive. The question should be how many games are fixed.
college bb games for sure. I dont think any pro sports are fixed.
The real question is how many games are not fixed. I'd say only a couple games every day are not fixed.
Come on get real why do you think I fade ...ALWAYS
I can make an argument from the Spurs/Celtics game a few nights ago...Ray Allen missing TWO FT'S at the end of the game
PRO SPORTS
Question is better asked, no offense, is How could they be fixed? technically how could a game be fixed?
a player significant enough to effect the outcome in a game, has enough money that it would be impossible to buy them out.
Example if Shaun Hill was paid 1 million dollars to "not cover" and he accepted. whoever paid him a million surely would bet 2million, that amount would not go unoticed by the market.
My argument for fixed games is this:
Is Vegas run by gods?
Are the greatest mathematical minds of our time in Vegas making odds? Take a look at League Trends through out a season. I will randomly go check them right now. What's this? It seems that once again in NFL the Favorites have covered 50% of the time and dogs covered 50%, thus negating winnings from betting on either one consistently.
Same for NBA at this very moment, favs are covering at 50% for the season, again negating winnings if you play one consistently. Same with away dogs/home favs, away favs/home dogs, (ALL SIT AROUND 50% AND EVEN WITHOUT VIG, YOU STILL DON'T MAKE ANY MONEY). Keep checking these throughout the year, and all will stay around 50.
How in the world can Vegas be THAT GOOD year after year? You think they have the greatest scientific or mathematical minds in the country working for them, who are able to predict who will cover in all of these games? They make the spreads then fix the games accordingly to always stay around 50 so no one can even follow these trends.
Vegas was and always will be a dirty town. There is too much money involved in pro sports for it not to be monitored or controlled in some way.
Its a market, not 1 or 2 people that create these lines.Originally Posted by Masu485
Also lines move throughout the day which tells you they are not perfect.
Those trends are based on closing numbers, which are the sharpest lines.
I am a GIANT conspiracy nut, so in response to HOW they fix games, I have numerous theories, one of which may sound far-fetched.
1. The ref(s) are paid off.
2. There are threats on players or refs.
3. Some players could be paid off.
4. Vegas makes some players pro in exchange for entrance into a pact, in which Vegas "controls" the players. This is feasible because not all players we see at the pro level deserve to be there. Seriously, all these guys are the BEST IN THE COUNTRY? No way I believe that, many make it through Vegas and then are indebted to them.
My last two posts show WHY I believe games are fixed and HOW they are fixed.
I bet celtics that game too. But if you noticed ray allen hit a couple huge shots with 2 minutes left. If anything the refs not calling fouls on those steals.
Something is still going on behind the scenes for it to consistently be at 50%, guaranteeing books money on vig. The only way books profit on vig is if they have balanced actions, and it just so happens that throughout the season they always end up getting balanced action?
i think it is possible that by signing a pro sports contract you are then controlled by the relevant pro sports league, and the nba would tell the lakers 'you have to go on a small losing streak' or tell the warriors keep this a low scoring game etc etc
sometimes the circumstances for why a side or total covered or not are way too suspect
also, more often than not the lines are set in such a way that you end up saying 'wow they are giving team A so much points? they must be crazy' but they are not, sometimes lines tell you that vegas knows whos gonna win days before the games
As previously stated this is a market and oddsmakers do not make the line they put up a close estimate over night at low limits and let sharp players looking for value pound the lines into shape while the betting limits are still low. The market is very efficient by the time the line closes and if you took time to look back at line movements from open to close you would see just how inaccurate oddsmakers are.
I am sure there may be some games fixed from time to time but 99% of the time you hear people crying fix it is just a sore loser looking to place blame of his loss on anything besides himself. And if anybody is fixing a game it is not the bookies it is more likely organized crime.
Most fixed games are fixed by the refs. It is much easier to bribe a ref who makes 5 figure income than bribe a pro athlete who makes 7 figure income.
games are fixed, and they aren't all bribes, some are just fixed, guys. Not all games by any means, but a few are for sure, not by bribing refs but refs just fukin knowing what has to happen & try to do it without looking obvious. Sometimes they fail miserably.
Refs would pretty much be the only spot where one could possibly fix a game and even in this case one could never guarantee that the ref would be capable of guaranteeing a win. If someone were to pay a ref off all they would accomplish would be to boost the odds slightly in their favor and possibly gain a 10% edge on their wager if that.
If a player gave himself a 10% edge by paying off a ref or college ball athlete for $50,000 that player would have to get down $500,000 on the wager just to break even after what they paid the ref.
In a world where if a particular football coach has a foot fetish makes top stories, if games were fixed ESPN would cover this non-stop. It would get out. Like someone said above, you can't pay these guys enough. Having said that, I believe there are biases, particularly in pro basketball in which home teams get the benefit of the doubt on calls so they can win more games and increase attendance. But I do not think it has to do with fixing the game.
Only on gambling forums is fixing games discussed. if this really happened it would be known and on 60 Minutes and every news and sports channel in the world.
Think about the things these college kids do to earn a few bucks. You think they are going to turn down big money for something as relatively easy as point shaving or affecting the game otherwise.
You want to see fixed? Come watch a rinky dink first round tennis match in a shitty tournament between two no name players. All of a sudden Betfair shows hundreds of thousands of dollars laid one way or another while every other match is hovering in the low five figures if that. Not fixed at all.
Exactly.
hahahah just take a look at that Oklahoma city game and tell me the nba is not fixed they basically even said on around the horn that it was fixed..hahah
haha yeah, and don't get me started on some of the retirements I see players take out of nowhere now and then.You want to see fixed? Come watch a rinky dink first round tennis match in a shitty tournament between two no name players. All of a sudden Betfair shows hundreds of thousands of dollars laid one way or another while every other match is hovering in the low five figures if that. Not fixed at all.
LOL, either you are very sharp or very square.
You are insane. See a doctor.
Books will still profit if the line is correct.
No matter how one-sided the action is, they are still taking -EV wagers on both sides of the spread.
remember when bodog had a fight promotion
.... that was a bright idea
When it is done, which is only occasionally, it is done through the officiating. [speaking NBA and especially NFL here].
Closely knit brotherhood paid to keep their mouths shut, and you only need a few rotten ones to do the deed and get the job done in the designated situations. Most of them need not be involved beyond closing their eyes and ears. Maybe wins can't be guaranteed 100% of the time.... but often enough for the big bucks to flow in the right direction much more often than not. Orders filter down from the very top echelon, at least in the NFL. Entanglements with the underworld if ever clearly exposed would be mind boggling.
Not sure at all about NHL or MLB. Think these games are pretty clean. Money volume bet is just not there for any rampant corruption. Plus players and officials are paid well.
As far as the fight game, overseas tennis and second tier soccer, any argument that all of these contests are clean is absolutely laughable. Romanian soccer?....c'mon man.
Back 50 or more years ago it was the poorly paid players shaving points and that was an entirely different dynamic, though still the same on the collegiate level today. Some collegiate officials are free lancers as well.
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