SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
think tank line movement threads
all these threads debating line movement and the merits of opening and closing lines. Its all interesting stuff but I feel like the posters view is always set in an exact time period which is beneficial to his/hers opinion. The problem is that betting markets are dynamic and besides betting at slow books its complete randomness knowing where and how far a line will move. Its a basic human brain function to forget when your wrong and remember when you were right so maybe some are deluding themselves into believing they can predict the market.
Everyone on the net now has a sports betting model which they guard at all costs the more sophisticated the more confusing the better. Pages and pages of mathematics and wording which would suggest a rocket launch to Mars rather than a sports event played by mostly under educated people. How do any of these models take into account the dynamics or circumstances? Surely if the model is some way adrift of the actual line then its redundant on recent knowledge terms and if it spits out the same number as the books then theres no apparent edge. I dont understand the lengths people go to to prove that the line thats set is wrong rather than accepting the books view and finding material reasons for betting one side or the other rather than leaving it all down to some number crunching exercise.
No model has the capacity to beat the line on a regular basis better than your own brain. Conquer its bias of human nature and hereditary instincts and you have the tools to win at sports betting.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by durito
durito gave CHUBNUT 286 SBR Point(s) for this post.
if not a few betpoints wouldnt go amiss 
