[GGZOLA]

on this forum that documents their plays and hits anywhere near 60% consistently in any sport? If anyone cares to share thx. Every hot capper in this and other forums getting blasted across the board seems like.

[Deuce]

No

All records here are frauds unless losers. Winners here never post plays besides, Paco.

[GGZOLA]

Serious? I know his thread has like a million posts seems like a discussion thread more than serious picks? I'll look into it thanks.

[big0mar]

Nobody that knows what they're doing is going to share plays

Come up with your own plays

If you tail you will lose

[ouman101]

on this forum that documents their plays and hits anywhere near 60% consistently in any sport? If anyone cares to share thx. Every hot capper in this and other forums getting blasted across the board seems like.

That's the part that I never understand. Anyone that has a thread where they are constantly picking winners, keep their records, etc. Gets hated on, people call them touts, people bashing saying it is a lucky streak....until the thread is eventually closed because of to much bickering. I don't get it either.

[Jessica]

there are you just gotta look around

[big0mar]

That's the part that I never understand. Anyone that has a thread where they are constantly picking winners, keep their records, etc. Gets hated on, people call them touts, people bashing saying it is a lucky streak....until the thread is eventually closed because of to much bickering. I don't get it either.

Thats because they are touts.

Again, any profitable gambler WILL NOT share his plays, or he won't be profitable for long

[Hoja Verdes]

RAS...that's it.

[Jessica]

Thats because they are touts. Again, any profitable gambler WILL NOT share his plays, or he won't be profitable for long

why and how so?

[bettilimbroke999]

Kind of. I hit around 40% last year in NCAAB so if you faded all my picks you would've hit 60%

Brandon Lang consistently hits 40% in all sports, so again fade 60

[3PtShooter]

nobody

[Dad]

I'm hitting 73% in college hoops and 66% in NBA this year.

But I only play one game per day, so take that for what it's worth.

[big0mar]

why and how so?

Because:

A. Anyone who is profitable over the long-term has thousands of hours invested, and generally speaking they won't want to donate their hard spent time to others for nothing

B. In order for there to be winners, there must be losers. If you're a profitable gambler, its in your best interest to have as few people on the same side as you. Not only are you pushing the market out of your favor, you're also decreasing the liquidity of the books that you hope to get paid by.

For example, if I know that any time Team X plays a team that runs a 1-3-1 zone, they tend to score less points, then I wouldn't want others to know, because they'll likely bet the under. If enough people have this information, they books will adjust.

In the end, you need the market in your favor. Its why you see guys like Jim Kramer on TV telling you to buy stocks. They want to inflate the value because they have personal interest in it.

[DeeWizzle]

on this forum that documents their plays and hits anywhere near 60% consistently in any sport? If anyone cares to share thx. Every hot capper in this and other forums getting blasted across the board seems like.

There was that octopus but it died

[james4512]

Because:

A. Anyone who is profitable over the long-term has thousands of hours invested, and generally speaking they won't want to donate their hard spent time to others for nothing

B. In order for there to be winners, there must be losers. If you're a profitable gambler, its in your best interest to have as few people on the same side as you. Not only are you pushing the market out of your favor, you're also decreasing the liquidity of the books that you hope to get paid by.

For example, if I know that any time Team X plays a team that runs a 1-3-1 zone, they tend to score less points, then I wouldn't want others to know, because they'll likely bet the under. If enough people have this information, they books will adjust.

In the end, you need the market in your favor. Its why you see guys like Jim Kramer on TV telling you to buy stocks. They want to inflate the value because they have personal interest in it.

let me guess you think 911 was an inside job too?

Its a good theory but theres less tha probably 10 people in the whole gambling community that can get that many people to tail or will alter a line that dramatically

[big0mar]

let me guess you think 911 was an inside job too? Its a good theory but theres less tha probably 10 people in the whole gambling community that can get that many people to tail or will alter a line that dramatically

Its not a theory. Its the reality of any financial markets. Its why "pump-and-dump" schemes are illegal.

There are thousands of people on this board alone that blindly tail someone that they think is a 'proven winner'.

It really doesn't take much to move lines, especially early. Go try betting some NCAA totals overnight at Pinny. See how easy it is for the line to move. It doesnt take more than a few thousand dollars.

[jjgold]

No one hits 60%
No one hits 55%

No one wins unless you bet both sides to a game and scalp

[james4512]

Its not a theory. Its the reality of any financial markets. Its why "pump-and-dump" schemes are illegal.

There are thousands of people on this board alone that blindly tail someone that they think is a 'proven winner'.

It really doesn't take much to move lines, especially early. Go try betting some NCAA totals overnight at Pinny. See how easy it is for the line to move. It doesnt take more than a few thousand dollars.

once your wager is submitted your line doesnt change with the action im not sure if you know that, so who gives a fukk about anyone else post your picks as you place them and let some other retard lose by .5 it doesnt matter to you

[brooks85]

im less than a % shy of 60% in mma with over 150 picks, all posted

[GGZOLA]

agreed james.
I understand people making the money, the few, have no incentive to release plays, but I can name 10-20 handicappers with historical and YTD success on 2 forums on the net, yet as soon and I mean the DAY I keep track they all go to shit, leave, or hover around 50%. One example, there is a NHL capper on another site, won 70+units YTD, all documented. Since I tailed/kept track, hasnt won a single unit in 1 month. A famous nba capper on this site won over 100 units last year, can barely keep above even this year. I can name at least a dozen more in various sports. Seems best option is to write these names down, tail them for the first 1/3rd of each respective sport's season and then shut it down.

[big0mar]

once your wager is submitted your line doesnt change with the action im not sure if you know that, so who gives a fukk about anyone else post your picks as you place them and let some other retard lose by .5 it doesnt matter to you

Why do I give a fukk if the book that I'm winning money from is profitable or not? Maybe because I want to get paid out.

But I'm not necessarily talking about the same game. If I know that every time UCLA plays an SEC team, the game has a 62% probability of going under, I want everyone betting the over. As soon as people discover this, then the books start to notice and they adjust. Being a successful gambler is a game of cat and mouse, and running with a pack of mice isn't wise.

The only people giving out picks are people who are trying to rob you of your money. They're either touting both sides with different names, or they work for a book and are trying to take a position.

I would suggest investing a lot of time in learning about various financial markets, and how they react to certain events. Gambling markets aren't all that much different, and if you can decipher the manipulation, thats your first step toward achieving long-term success.

[GGZOLA]

jjgold commenting on my thread....what an honor!

Big0mar you have valid points as well.

[big0mar]

agreed james.
I understand people making the money, the few, have no incentive to release plays, but I can name 10-20 handicappers with historical and YTD success on 2 forums on the net, yet as soon and I mean the DAY I keep track they all go to shit, leave, or hover around 50%. One example, there is a NHL capper on another site, won 70+units YTD, all documented. Since I tailed/kept track, hasnt won a single unit in 1 month. A famous nba capper on this site won over 100 units last year, can barely keep above even this year. I can name at least a dozen more in various sports. Seems best option is to write these names down, tail them for the first 1/3rd of each respective sport's season and then shut it down.

It really isn't that complicated:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size

One season is nowhere near long enough to get an accurate representation of their ability. I would say at the minimum, you need 500 plays before you can make any determination, and even then it might be large enough of a sample.

Your best option is to make your plays.

[big0mar]

jjgold commenting on my thread....what an honor! Big0mar you have valid points as well.

Everyone wants to make gambling into a US v THE BOOK thing. In reality its gambler vs. gambler. You need to remember that.

[minet123]

Someone hit 57% in a season long/everygame ATS contest
But big deal was dead last in several pick 4 contests
You can not adjust for dumb luck

[PDW]

Brock Landers hits well over 70% on his rubberband plays, just ask him.