What's a better bet?

**jjgold** · 09-16-05, 01:24 PM

Its actually about even

**Santo** · 09-16-05, 01:40 PM

You'd win if it lands on 1 or 2, which it does about 5.2% of the time.. a 12c value...

you're getting 22c.. so I'd take the +112.

**Mudcat** · 09-16-05, 01:46 PM

I'd be interested to know what you base that on JJ. I'd also be interested in knowing more about the data where you got your 5.2% figure Santo. Do you have stats for the frequency of all outcomes?

Personally, I have a slight preference for that moneyline. It's a relatively low total (37.5) which means there is a lower likelihood of unusual scoring combinations that would result in a 1 or 2 point margin.

But that's really just a gut feeling.

**Ganchrow** · 09-16-05, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

I am not asking whether you agree with it or not what I am asking from a probability standpoint of view which is better.

Boston College +2.5 (-110) or Boston College +112

I don't have any data for NCAA Football (which I don't bet), but I do have summary data for the NFL (which actually I don't bet either) courtesy of Table 21 of Stanford Wong's Sharp Sports Betting.

To wit:
A 2.5 spread at -110 is approximately equivalent to a money line of +106. Thus, insofar as this also applies to NCAA Footbal (admittedly a suspect assumption) the money line of +112 is a better bet.

**Santo** · 09-16-05, 02:19 PM

It's not an exact figure (I'm building up a database but that's a job in progress), but I have a table of what the result ends on from a couple seasons back.

1 - 2.6%, 2 - 2.6%, 3 - 3.7% (big difference from NFL which is ~10%).

I don't have a copy of SSB yet (on the way) so my estimation of the moneyline may be slightly off. There is a formula, I just haven't added a tool to my set of tools to calculate it yet -- when SSB arrives I plan to do so.

**BuddyBear** · 09-16-05, 02:38 PM

Well bet is in now at BC +112...it actually went back down to +2 on SIA where it was just about an hour ago at +2.5.

Thanks guys...this is a great use of the forum. Instead of posting my pick of BC and getting into an argument with people who took FSU as to why they will win or "good calls" from guys who took BC...i get help in making the best possible pick out there for my selection.

This is how a forum is suppose to function!

**Mudcat** · 09-16-05, 02:55 PM

I agree big time BB.

If you guys ever have any data on this kind of statistical stuff to post, you'll get a big

:thumbs_up

from me.

Thanks for that link too Ganchrow.

(By the way, I saw our man Kurt on The Daily Show the other day. He still appears to be a feisty old fart.)

**Ganchrow** · 09-16-05, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by Santo

1 - 2.6%, 2 - 2.6%

Assuming your probs are accurate for spreads of +2.5 points, and that the theoretical hold at +2.5 -110 were 4.55%, a money line of +113 would be roughly equivalent:

-(50%+5.2%) + (1-50%-5.2%)*113/100 ≈ -4.55%

If, however a +2.5 -110 is a break-even proposition (winning 52.38% of the time) the break-even money line would be roughly +112:

-(1-52.38%+5.2%) + (52.38%-5.2%)*112/100 ≈ 0%

Of course, if you believe that +2.5 -110 is a positive EV bet (occuring more than 52.38% of the time) then the equivalent money line would be lower than +112.

**aceking** · 09-16-05, 03:19 PM

how often are NFL games decided by 1/2 points ?

**Ganchrow** · 09-16-05, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by Mudcat

By the way, I saw our man Kurt on The Daily Show the other day. He still appears to be a feisty old fart.

It was a bit sad, actually. I thought he looked very, very old.

**Ganchrow** · 09-16-05, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by aceking

how often are NFL games decided by 1/2 points ?

According to SSB, for NFL games which are expected to be close, the favorite will win by 1 point ~2% of the time, by 2 points ~2% of the time, and by 3 points ~10% of the time.

**jjgold** · 09-16-05, 03:34 PM

Whatever take you get and whatever scenario the longer term it would not matter which one you choose because they are both very close in value.