There are still some things to work out with the NFL playoff picture, but nine of the 12 spots have been clinched heading into the final week of the season. However, only two of the first round byes have been clinched, and only four of the eight divisions have been decided. That means that most of the teams are going to be involved in meaningful games in the last week of play.
Also having been clinched is the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. The Carolina Panthers cannot be passed for futility, meaning that at the close of the season they will have the No. 1 pick in the draft. However, with nine teams sitting at either four or five wins, there is a lot to work out before the Top 10 is set.
Here is a look at my playoff picture entering Week 16.
AFC Playoff Picture
Locks: New England Patriots (13-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4), Baltimore Ravens (11-4), Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) and New York Jets (10-5)
Great Position: Indianapolis Colts (9-6)
On the Bubble: Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
Eliminated: San Diego Chargers (8-7), Miami Dolphins (7-8), Oakland Raiders (7-8), Tennessee Titans (6-9), Cleveland Browns (5-10), Houston Texans (5-10), Buffalo Bills (4-11), Denver Broncos (4-11) and Cincinnati Bengals (4-11)
NFC Playoff Picture
Locks: Atlanta Falcons (12-3), Chicago Bears (11-4), New Orleans Saints (11-4) and Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
Great Position: Green Bay Packers (9-6), St. Louis Rams (7-8) and Seattle Seahawks (6-9)
On the Bubble: New York Giants (9-6) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6)
Eliminated: Minnesota Vikings (6-9), Washington Redskins (6-9), Arizona Cardinals (5-10), Dallas Cowboys (5-10), Detroit Lions (5-10), San Francisco 49ers (5-10) and Carolina Panthers (2-13)
Now it is time for my Week 17 picks. Here are the five biggest games of the week, followed by the other 11 games. My record for the season is 142-97.
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) at New Orleans Saints (11-4) In my opinion, the two best teams in the NFC both reside in the NFC South. I think that played out on Sunday. While the Bears gave up 34 points to a New York Jets team that had not thrown a touchdown pass in a month and the Philadelphia Eagles lost to a Minnesota Vikings team that was starting a third-string QB (Joe Webb), the Saints and Falcons played a slugfest in Atlanta, won by the Saints 17-14.
New Orleans knows it has no chance to win this division. Winning this game is only half the equation; they also need the Falcons to lose a home game to 2-13 Carolina. I cannot see that happening. Look for the Saints, who beat the Buccaneers 31-6 in Tampa Bay, to continue their dominance at home and wrap up the No. 5 seed. That loss would eliminate the Buccaneers, who need to win and see the Giants and Packers lose to keep their playoff dream alive. The win is also good for the Saints, as the fifth seed has a certain advantage this year. It is as good as a first round bye, as the No. 5 seed will travel to the NFC West champion. Winner: New Orleans
2) New York Giants (9-6) at Washington Redskins (6-9) The Giants cost themselves a chance to win the NFC East by blowing a 31-10 lead at home against the Philadelphia Eagles, and they probably played themselves out of the playoffs with a 45-17 loss in Green Bay. The Giants are still alive with a win, but they would also need the Packers to lose.
I think the Giants can take care of the winning part, although with the way they are turning the ball over in recent weeks nothing is a sure thing. I just do not think they are going to have any help from the Packers, who play a Bears team that will have wrapped up their seeding. Look for the Giants to beat the Redskins, but for their season to end in Washington. Winner: New York
3) Chicago Bears (11-4) at Green Bay Packers (9-6) The Green Bay Packers should be sending the Minnesota Vikings Christmas cards and other expensive gifts this week. By the Vikings winning this game, the Chicago Bears clinched the second seed. By the time this game kicks off, the Falcons should have already beaten the Carolina Panthers to wrap up the top seed, which means that the Bears will have nothing to play for and could rest their starters.
The only advantage to trying to beat the Packers would be if they did not want to match up with them in the playoffs and would rather have the New York Giants or Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the playoffs. Given how many problems the New York Giants defense gave the Bears offensive line the last time they met (nine first half sacks), I think the Bears are going to rest their starters and let the chips fall where they may. The Bears are good, but not good enough to beat the Packers on the road while resting players. I like the Packers to win and wrap up the sixth seed. Winner: Green Bay
4) Indianapolis Colts (9-6) at Tennessee Titans (6-9) The Colts have a very simple task: Beat a struggling Tennessee Titans team at home in their dome and win the AFC South. If they lose, they need to depend on the Houston Texans upsetting the Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs.
QB Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks of all time. I do not think the Colts are good enough to win the AFC and may very well be bounced in the first round, but I cannot see their season ending at home to the Tennessee Titans. I like the Colts to dominate this game. Winner: Indianapolis
5) St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (6-9) It seems unfathomable that a team with a 7-9 record could make the playoffs and two 10-6 teams could miss the playoffs. That is the reality in the NFC West, which is arguably the most watered-down division in the NFL. The last time a team won this division with more than 10 wins was when the Seattle Seahawks went to the Super Bowl in 2005 with a 13-3 record.
The big question is whether Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck is going to be healthy enough to play with his hip injury. If he can play, the Hawks have a veteran quarterback that has played in a Super Bowl going against a rookie quarterback (Sam Bradford) playing his first prime time NFL game. If not, you have an inexperienced Charlie Whitehurst trying to take his team into the playoffs with 63 pass attempts on the season.
The speculation is that Hasselbeck will probably not play this week, which has me leaning toward the Rams. Part of me would rather see the Seahawks make it so that we can have the first team with a losing record win a division, but without Hasselbeck, I cannot see that happening. Winner: St. Louis
The Rest
6) Carolina Panthers (2-13) at Atlanta Falcons (12-3) There is no way the Panthers win this game. The Falcons can clinch the NFC South and home field advantage with a win. If they lose, they could be the fifth seed and have to travel to St. Louis or Seattle for a first round game. I cannot see the Falcons looking past this game with that much on the line, and they have the superior team. Falcons win in a blowout. Winner: Atlanta
7) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at Cleveland Browns (5-10) The same goes for Pittsburgh in this game. If they win, they earn a first round bye and avoid New England until the AFC Championship. If they lose, they could be traveling to Indianapolis or Kansas City. They must win this game if they want to advance to their third Super Bowl since 2005. I think they take care of business. Cleveland is improved this year, but they really have nothing to play for, and the Steelers should be focused on earning that first round bye. Winner: Pittsburgh
8) Minnesota Vikings (6-9) at Detroit Lions (5-10) I was all set to pick the Lions to win this game, as the Vikings had been blown out in back-to-back weeks and the Lions had won three straight. Then the Vikings went to Philadelphia and upset the Philadelphia Eagles 24-14. Now this game becomes much harder to pick, but I am still going to go with the Detroit Lions.
The Lions played the Chicago Bears to a four-point game and beat the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins. The Packers and Buccaneers currently have nine wins, and the Dolphins have seven wins. This team is improving at the close of the season, and I look for them to end it on a four-game winning streak. Winner: Detroit
9) Oakland Raiders (7-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) This could have set up as an AFC West division showdown, but the Chiefs clinched the division last week with a win and losses by San Diego and Oakland. The Chiefs have seeding to play for, and I think they will try to win this game. If they win, they guarantee themselves a third seed, which means they would definitely avoid New England until the AFC Championship Game. If they lose, they open the possibility of traveling to New England in the second round.
I think the Chiefs would also match up better with the New York Jets at home than the Baltimore Ravens, who will likely be the five seed. The Chiefs are 7-0 at home, and it is important that they win this game. I like the Chiefs. Winner: Kansas City
10) Miami Dolphins (7-8) at New England Patriots (13-2) This game means absolutely nothing to the New England Patriots, but QB Tom Brady rarely takes off the last day of the season. The only time he has had fewer than 20 passes in Week 17 was back in 2005, when he threw eight passes. That year the Patriots had to play a first round game, not have a bye. I expect head coach Bill Belichick to play his starters at least a half and for the Patriots to win this game. Winner: New England
11) Buffalo Bills (4-11) at New York Jets (10-5) Head coach Rex Ryan would probably be wise to rest his players this week. The Ravens cannot win the division and would need the Steelers to lose to the Cleveland Browns and the Ravens to beat the Cincinnati Bengals to improve their seeding from sixth to fifth. I would think he rests all players that are dinged up and will not play his starters past the first quarter. That gives the Buffalo Bills an edge in this game, and I look for them to beat a resting Jets team with no incentive to win. Winner: Buffalo
12) Cincinnati Bengals (4-11) at Baltimore Ravens (11-4) The Ravens are probably going to be a wild card, even if they win, as they need the Steelers to lose to the Cleveland Browns. They will be playing at the same time, so they will not know the result prior to kickoff. I look for the Ravens to play their starters and earn their 12th win of the season. QB Carson Palmer is playing better to close the season. They will keep the game close, but the Ravens defense will win it for them in the end. Winner: Baltimore
13) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) at Houston Texans (5-10) The Jaguars loss really did not change things for them. Had they won the game, they still would have needed a win this week and a Colts loss to make the playoffs. RB Maurice Jones-Drews value was apparent in that game, as he did not play and the Jaguars struggled to generate any offense. I would consider picking the Texans, but they have lost eight of their last nine games and are playing like garbage right now. I will take the Jaguars to win the game but miss the playoffs. Winner: Jacksonville
14) Dallas Cowboys (5-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) I would have thought this would be an easy game to pick the Eagles in, but that was before they laid a 24-14 egg to the Minnesota Vikings and third-string QB Joe Webb. Now the Eagles have nothing to play for in Week 17. They cannot catch the Falcons or Bears for a top seed and first round bye, and they would need to lose three games this week to fall behind the NFC West champion.
The Eagles should rest their injured players and be ready for the six seed, which will likely be the Green Bay Packers, who must play their starters to qualify for the playoffs this year. I like the Cowboys to close the season with a win. Winner: Dallas
15) Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at San Francisco 49ers (5-10) This game means absolutely nothing; both teams have had disappointing seasons. The winner actually hurts its offseason prospects because it will be giving the other franchise a higher draft pick. I think the Cardinals have been playing hard, and the 49ers are a team that is in disarray, highlighted by the firing of head coach Mike Singletary with a game left in the season. I like the Cardinals to pull out the victory. Winner: Arizona
16) San Diego Chargers (8-7) at Denver Broncos (4-11) Denver Broncos QB Tim Tebow has had a nice run in his two weeks as a starter. In two starts, he is 24-of-45 with 448 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and a QB rating of 93.6. He led the Broncos from down 23-10 to a 24-23 victory at home last week. The problem was that that opponent was the dreadful Houston Texans.
This week Denver plays the San Diego Chargers, who are one of the best non-playoff teams in the NFL. I am picking the Chargers, although their loss at 4-11 Cincinnati does not make me entirely confident about this selection. Winner: San Diego
If the season ended right now AFC: 1. Patriots, 2. Steelers, 6. Jets at 3. Chiefs, 5. Ravens at 4. Colts NFC: 1. Falcons, 2. Bears, 6. Packers at 3. Eagles, 5. Saints at 4. Rams
AFC playoff picture 1. New England Patriots (13-2) – Clinched the No. 1 seed, AFC East title, first-round bye and home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. 2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) – Clinched a playoff berth.
• Would clinch the No. 2 seed, the AFC North title and a first-round playoff bye with a win at the Browns or a Ravens loss vs. the Bengals or if both games are ties, due to a better division record than the Ravens (5-1/4-2 to 4-2/3-3).
• Would be the No. 5 seed with a loss and Ravens win and Jets loss/tie vs. the Bills.
• Would be the No. 6 seed with a loss and Ravens win and Jets win (the Jets win the head-to-head tiebreaker). 3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) – Clinched the AFC West title.
• Would clinch the No. 3 seed with a win/tie vs. the Raiders or a Colts loss/tie. Would lose tiebreakers with the Steelers/Ravens or Colts due to conference record (8-4 to 7-5 or 6-6).
• Would be the No. 4 seed with a loss and a Colts win. 4. Indianapolis Colts (9-6) – Would clinch the AFC South title with a win/tie vs. the Titans or Jaguars loss/tie at the Texans.
• Would clinch the No. 3 seed with a win and a Chiefs loss to the Raiders.
• Eliminated with a loss and a Jaguars win.
• Would lose the tiebreaker with the Jaguars due to division record (4-2 to 3-3) but win a tie with the Chiefs due to conference record (8-4 to 6-6). 5. Baltimore Ravens (11-4) – Clinched a playoff berth and at worst the No. 5 seed due to a head-to-head win vs. the Jets.
• Would clinch the AFC North title, No. 2 seed and a first-round bye with a win vs. the Bengals and a Steelers loss/tie vs. the Browns. 6. New York Jets (10-5) – Clinched a playoff berth.
• Would clinch the No. 5 seed with a win vs. the Bills and Ravens win/tie vs. the Bengals and Steelers loss at the Browns.
• Would be the No. 5 seed with a loss/tie or Ravens loss or Steelers loss. Still alive 7. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) – Would clinch the AFC South title and No. 4 seed with a win at the Texans and a Colts loss to the Titans due to a better division record than the Colts (4-2 to 3-3).
• Eliminated with a loss/tie or a Colts win/tie.
NFC playoff picture 1. Atlanta Falcons (12-3) – Clinched a playoff berth.
• Would clinch the NFC South title, the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with a win/tie vs. the Panthers, or both a Saints loss/tie vs. the Buccaneers and a Bears loss/tie at the Packers.
• Would clinch a first-round bye and at worst No. 2 seed with a Saints loss/tie.
• Would be the No. 5 seed with a loss and a Saints win. 2. Chicago Bears (11-4) – Clinched the NFC North title and a first-round bye due to a head-to-head win vs. the Eagles.
• Would clinch the No. 1 seed with a win vs. the Packers and a Falcons loss vs. the Panthers and a Saints loss/tie vs. the Buccaneers. 3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) – Clinched the NFC East and will be the No. 3 seed after losing to the Vikings. 4. St. Louis Rams (7-8) – Would clinch the NFC West title and No. 4 seed with a win/tie at the Seahawks. Would lose the tiebreaker to the Seahawks due to division record (4-2 to 3-3). 5. New Orleans Saints (11-4) – Clinched a playoff berth and can be only the No. 1 or No. 5 seed.
• Would clinch the NFC South, the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with a win vs. the Buccaneers and a Falcons loss to the Panthers.
• Would win the tiebreaker with the Falcons due to division record (5-1 to 4-2) and win the tiebreaker with the Bears due to conference record (10-2 to 9-3). 6. Green Bay Packers (9-6) – Would clinch a playoff berth and the No. 6 seed with a win vs. the Bears due to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker (and head-to-head win vs. the Giants), or both a Giants loss at the Redskins and a Buccaneers loss at the Saints. Still alive 7. New York Giants (9-6) – Would clinch a playoff berth and the No. 6 seed with a win at the Redskins and a Packers loss/tie to the Bears.
• Would win the tiebreaker with the Buccaneers due to a better record vs. common opponents (5-0 to 4-1; the Buccaneers lost to the Lions). 8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) – Would clinch a playoff berth and the No. 6 seed with a win at the Saints and a Packers loss to the Bears and a Giants loss at the Redskins.
• Would lose all tiebreakers due to strength of victory (to the Packers, or both the Giants and Packers), or record vs. common opponents (to the Giants). 9. Seattle Seahawks (6-9) – Would clinch the NFC West and No. 4 seed with a win vs. the Rams due to a better division record than the Rams (4-2 to 3-3).
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