Going with the Mets today.

**Tech N9ne** · 08-23-11, 05:34 PM

gl Lb

I threw a couple Hundo on it

**warriorfan707** · 08-23-11, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Tech N9ne

gl Lb

I threw a couple Hundo on it

no you didnt

**brahmabull117** · 08-23-11, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

+300 when the phillies have 6 game lead and will sit Ryan Howard and others tonight? Vance was nasty for months but his era is like over 5 lately. Thats what he means by value numbnuts.

I was actually not aware that phillies were sitting anybody, that changes things around. Have they released the lineup for the games?? Because with regular lineups for both teams, I don't understand how anybody can take the mets for less than +300 given their recent inabilities to beat ANYBODY

oh and 6 game lead on august 23 doesn't mean it's over, the Phillies aren't gonna put it in cruise control especially with how ridiculously hot Atlanta is. Teams have made up much bigger deficits in much shorter time periods

**warriorfan707** · 08-23-11, 05:37 PM

Phillies win tonight, I guarantee it.

If they lose, Im out of here

**rsnnh12** · 08-23-11, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

+300 when the phillies have 6 game lead and will sit Ryan Howard and others tonight? Vance was nasty for months but his era is like over 5 lately. Thats what he means by value numbnuts.

Howard has struggled against Niese though... I don't think him sitting would be that big of a loss tonight.

**I/O** · 08-23-11, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I was actually not aware that phillies were sitting anybody, that changes things around. Have they released the lineup for the games?? Because with regular lineups for both teams, I don't understand how anybody can take the mets for less than +300 given their recent inabilities to beat anybody

oh and 6 game lead on august 23 doesn't mean it's over, the Phillies aren't gonna put it in cruise control especially with how ridiculously hot Atlanta is. The Braves could easily catch the Phillies with a hot september (and a cold september for the Phils)

**ShowMeDaMoney** · 08-23-11, 05:38 PM

mets +1.5 for me as well

**Jago2008** · 08-23-11, 05:39 PM

Guys Niese was just recently beat by the Padres 6-1, his stuff was erratic @ best.

When he did beat philly on May 29th and July 16th, they had Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy still in the lineup.

I understand most of you know your stuff here, evidenced by your history. But seriously, this is a stretch of a stretch for me, esp. w/ Philly coming off a dominating win. With that said, Niese pitched very well, he'll be seeing Pence and Mayberry this time who're hot. Niese has good numbers against Pence and Howard, but I just dont see the Mets offense able to carry him. He's had a cumulative value of 3 runs in his last few starts.

His last start in Philly was a 11-0 loss, he's dominated them lately, but I expect this Philly lineup to bounce-back against him @ some point.

**Redscot** · 08-23-11, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Avenger

If it was in NYC, I'd be all over it (but line wouldn't be as good) but Phillies at home are magical and Niese is close to becoming an autofade. Only angle I see is Worley is due for a loss (doubt it'll happen at home) and Mets hungry rooks will take him to school.
Just my .02, BOL whatever u choose.

Don't see the home field as a decider here to be honest. Niese benefits less from Citi than Worley would as he is a predominant GB pitcher. Phillie is great at home but Muts also have been road warriors, better on the road. Anyone getting this game in the +175 range, with lineups posted, is getting good value in my opinion. FF +.5 as Nash played may be an even better bet imo due to the Muts atrocious pen atm. GL to all

.

**No coincidences** · 08-23-11, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

Vance Worley has owned you all year NC.

Vance and Vogelsong

**BettingWizard** · 08-23-11, 05:41 PM

A +300 line against any #4 starter in the majors is just not going to happen.

stop with the asinine statements brah

**warriorfan707** · 08-23-11, 05:47 PM

Unless you get ridiculously lucky like the over backers in the morning game, this bet does not stand a chance.

The Mets cant hold a candle to the Phillies, and theres a reason Worley is 8-1.

Niese? Please....

**Jago2008** · 08-23-11, 05:53 PM

Niese is understanable, low WHIP against the Phils, substantial advantage over some of the Phils lineup, pitches well and uses the corners of the plate, doesn't give up HR - if any opposite field. HOWEVER, I can't bet against the Phils lineup in a matchup like this, too much consistency as of late, and they're @ home.

**goldengreek** · 08-23-11, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I got a 1000 on it

I would love to be your bookie..especially after your recent "success" at taking all this chalk..the next 3-4 weeks will not be good for you. Have you started losing already the last 3-4 days ?

**goldengreek** · 08-23-11, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

Unless you get ridiculously lucky like the over backers in the morning game, this bet does not stand a chance.

The Mets cant hold a candle to the Phillies, and theres a reason Worley is 8-1.

Niese? Please....

If the mets win say...6-3 ...he would have "got lucky" ?

Man im on the wrong side of the biz. I wish I could book most of SBR members action. I would retire after a year

**Love The Action** · 08-23-11, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

Unless you get ridiculously lucky like the over backers in the morning game, this bet does not stand a chance.

The Mets cant hold a candle to the Phillies, and theres a reason Worley is 8-1.

Niese? Please....

I laid off this game, but you are dead wrong about Niese, who has a WAR of 3 and SIERA of 3.3 (better than Masterson, Beckett and most others) . Those are just two important stats in which Niese dominates over Worley. This is, in fact, a pretty big pitching advantage in favor of Niese and the mets. Without Howard or Rollins, Philly lineup is not as dangerous, plus they do not hit lefties well. Be careful about playing the phils here. This could be a fairly easy win for NY as long as their bullpen plays a minimal role.

**warriorfan707** · 08-23-11, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by goldengreek

If the mets win say...6-3 ...he would have "got lucky" ?

Man im on the wrong side of the biz. I wish I could book most of SBR members action. I would retire after a year

No, I never said that. I meant the only way it is possible for the Mets to win is it some unbelievably amazing nonsense happens like the morning game where the manager decided the only way he could keep fukking Mastersons wife is if he let him try to pitch a complete game.

Obviously a 6-3 win wouldn't be lucky, get your head of your ass and back to reality.

**No coincidences** · 08-23-11, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I laid off this game, but you are dead wrong about Niese, who has a WAR of 3 and SIERA of 3.3 (better than Masterson, Beckett and most others) . Those are just two important stats in which Niese dominates over Worley. This is, in fact, a pretty big pitching advantage in favor of Niese and the mets. Without Howard or Rollins, Philly lineup is not as dangerous, plus they do not hit lefties well. Be careful about playing the phils here. This could be a fairly easy win for NY as long as their bullpen plays a minimal role.

**goldengreek** · 08-23-11, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

No, I never said that. I meant the only way it is possible for the Mets to win is it some unbelievably amazing nonsense happens like the morning game where the manager decided the only way he could keep fukking Mastersons wife is if he let him try to pitch a complete game.

Obviously a 6-3 win wouldn't be lucky, get your head of your ass and back to reality.

This is baseball...where the best teams win 60 % of their games and the worst teams win 40 % of their games

For you to say that the only way the mets will win is if they get lucky is as stupid of a statement as anyone can make.

**face** · 08-23-11, 06:01 PM

last 3 innings will be a nightmare for mets backers. price is good though.

**warriorfan707** · 08-23-11, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by goldengreek

This is baseball...where the best teams win 60 % of their games and the weorst teams lose 40 % of their games

For you to say that the only way the mets will win is if they get lucky is as stupid of a statement as anyone can make

You are still not understanding what I am saying, and its really sad.

What I mean is if the Phillies dont win this game, it means something truly bizarre happened. Thats his only prayer.

The Phillies either win this game fairly convincingly or by some freak some of nature something inexplicable happens (a ridiculous error) ( a manager brainfart) some bullshit like that

In any case, Phillies roll and you can be happy you're not a bookie today

**lakerboy** · 08-23-11, 06:02 PM

phils getting hit hard

**brahmabull117** · 08-23-11, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by goldengreek

This is baseball...where the best teams win 60 % of their games and the worst teams win 40 % of their games

.

...except the phillies have won 70% of their games at home and they're facing a team that has less wins in the last month than the houston astros

**BigDofBA** · 08-23-11, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

phils getting hit hard

That was expected.

**warriorfan707** · 08-23-11, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

...except the phillies have won 70% of their games at home and they're facing a team that has less wins in the last month than the houston astros

but hey man they are +180 so lets join in and torch our money because people want to try to get lucky and look hype

**lakerboy** · 08-23-11, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

but hey man they are +180 so lets join in and torch our money because people want to try to get lucky and look hype

its not about getting lucky. niese has had good success versus philly. the mets also will score more than 3 runs most likely and that should be enough.

**brahmabull117** · 08-23-11, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

but hey man they are +180 so lets join in and torch our money because people want to try to get lucky and look hype

all these people betting on the mets are just looking at their record and have no idea what the hell they're betting on

the mets, in their current condition (with no murphy, no reyes, a terrible bullpen, very inconsistent starting pitching) are the worst team in the league right now. This game is the equivalent of taking +175 for the Astros on the road against the Phillies. How is that a good line to play??

**Jago2008** · 08-23-11, 06:08 PM

Guys we're all concentrating on Niese.... but what about the Mets bullpen?

Unless Niese pitches a CG, I can't imagine the Mets bullpen is going to hold anyone. Just a few days ago they surrendered 4 runs to the Brewers in the 9th. And another 4 runs following the 7th inning in the next game... given this is the Brewers, but what case can you make that the Phillies offense is any less "potent" than the Brew-crew.

**warriorfan707** · 08-23-11, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

its not about getting lucky. niese has had good success versus philly. the mets also will score more than 3 runs most likely and that should be enough.

I really, really, really, just dont see this one happening bro.

**brahmabull117** · 08-23-11, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

its not about getting lucky. niese has had good success versus philly. the mets also will score more than 3 runs most likely and that should be enough.

the mets have scored less than 3 runs in 3 of their last 4 games, this offense is just god awful right now

and with that disaster of a bullpen, Niese could easily go 6 innings of 2 run ball and have the mets lose this game 5-0

**Jago2008** · 08-23-11, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I laid off this game, but you are dead wrong about Niese, who has a WAR of 3 and SIERA of 3.3 (better than Masterson, Beckett and most others) . Those are just two important stats in which Niese dominates over Worley. This is, in fact, a pretty big pitching advantage in favor of Niese and the mets. Without Howard or Rollins, Philly lineup is not as dangerous, plus they do not hit lefties well. Be careful about playing the phils here. This could be a fairly easy win for NY as long as their bullpen plays a minimal role.

spot on analysis LTA. This guys knows his stuff.

I just can't process the Mets BP holding any lead.

**warriorfan707** · 08-23-11, 06:12 PM

Exactly thats another big factor. The Mets bullpen cant stop the Phillies from scoring.

**lakerboy** · 08-23-11, 06:12 PM

worley looks spot on so far

**BigDofBA** · 08-23-11, 06:12 PM

I'm not against betting favorites, I actually made a thread about it. That being said, I don't understand how some people here think that constantly betting -200 or more favorites is the key to success.

If it was as easy as betting the best teams all the time, everyone would be rich. Sure you can win like 4 or 5 in a row and make some money but once you lose a couple you're bankroll is hurting.

The best teams win like 66% of the time and anything can happen on any given night.

The worst team in baseball, the Astros, which have a minor league lineup just won a series against the defending world champions. Crazy stuff happens.

In certain situations I would like to place small risks that yield larger gains. I did that tonight with the Mets. I don't totally expect them to win but I feel like there is a good enough chance to take a shot.

I love when people bet large favorites and then complain about how they got "unlucky". Being "unlucky" in baseball happens all the time so you might as well be on the lucky side once in a while at + money.

And for the record, I took the Reds, Braves, and Angels tonight so I play favs as well.

**Love The Action** · 08-23-11, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Guys we're all concentrating on Niese.... but what about the Mets bullpen?

Unless Niese pitches a CG, I can't imagine the Mets bullpen is going to hold anyone. Just a few days ago they surrendered 4 runs to the Brewers in the 9th. And another 4 runs following the 7th inning in the next game... given this is the Brewers, but what case can you make that the Phillies offense is any less "potent" than the Brew-crew.

Agreed...that's why I didn't play this game. However, to say that the only way the mets win is by fluke is just wrong. The price should not exceed +160 today based on all the factors I mentioned. Philly is overpriced. They might win based on a mets bullpen collapse, but I expect a good game. Good luck to both sides.