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RLM
Last year, I was trying to keep track of reverse line movement throughout the NFL season. I think I'm gonna attempt to do it again and keep a record going. Had a few people also interested last year so hopefully we all can collaborate and get above .500 with RLM.
BOL
I'll help you out, I had a thread about it last season
Good to see you again Deluxe
Starting to look for some trends early on in the week. The only real one I see comes as a shocker to me.
10030 bets placed on the Chargers v. Chiefs game with 78% of the public on the Chargers. The line opened up at -5.5 and has moved to, on my book, -4.5. RLM of 1 point. Will continue to watch this line hoping it doesn't move.
What do you think Deluxe?
Glad to see you are doing this again Totol! I will be checking in.
Possible RLM on Oakland/Tennessee
Can you believe the NFL starts in 2 days? Glad it's back and you are doing this thread again. I'll chime in again from time to time when I see some RLM.
Source Bet Tracker:
Indy opened -3 (13,000 bets) 68% action on Indy and line is now -1.5
Tenn opened -7 (10,000 bets) 72% action on Tenn and line is now -6
SD opened -5.5 (11,000 best) 76% action on SD and line is now -4.5
Others that have potenial:
NE
Den
StL
Good luck. I will help out when I can. When it is over 63% and moves 1.5 points it seems to be more meaningful.
Last edited by dodger33; 09-07-10 at 02:22 PM.
Originally Posted by GGPLAYER
Definitely agree but you very rarely get 1.5 point movements.
Someone once posted that there was a way to see the over/under line movement on the sportsinsightdotcom website by changing a number in the address line. Does anyone know how to do it?
70% and RLM of 1.5 is huge and 60% and RLM of 1 pt is good. I wanna say that the first example hits 75% and the second 60% of the time, but those numbers might be a little off, but there was a good thread last year and those number stick in my head for some reason....but does neone else find it weird that there may be 6 RLM's in week 1? sometimes there arent that many in College.
I agree. I usually see 1 RLM, if that, in each week of the NFL. So far, I've seen three that GGplayer mentioned. Will wait to see how it ends up on Thurs/Fri
I already jumped on KC Chiefs +4.5 for the first week ...not a huge fan of the Raiders because we moved off the 7 and the 7 is such an important number.
The 1 point that we are giving up in the SD/KC game is not too important. I also like the play because the public most likely thinks SD will blow out KC, so the RLM makes a lot of sense to me. KC at home plus they are improved, SD is not projected to be as good as they have been in the past.
Biggest rlm of the week. Under tomorrow night 66% on the over line has moved from 52 to 48.5.
I usually stay away from O/U when doing RLMs. BOL to you though.
With the openers being put out by offshore books so early and many of the large consulting firms not actually putting out their official lines until recently is their potential for some RLM red herrings?
LOCKS! No, it probably won't matter.
I like Hou and KC. Home dogs and the public is all over Indy and SD.
I already took KC. Hope you took the under Dodger. Congrats if you did.
Will wait to see if Houston moves
I did! Thanks. That was almost too easy.
RLM, my favorite topic. Found one in NCAAF this saturday
(i know this is a NFL thread, but had to contribute)
Idaho / Nebraska under 53.5
can anyone else confirm this?
thats not that big of rlm, would not play that one
thanks rfr3sh, I appreciate the feedback
Was wondering what you use as a source to analyze RLM.. sbrodds? sportsinsights? something else..?
and what are your parameters?
this is the graph that I have for that Idaho/Nebraska game:
graph is color coded, gray is under
Last edited by RichardMoss; 11-14-10 at 12:09 PM. Reason: url removed
Last edited by RichardMoss; 11-14-10 at 12:09 PM. Reason: url removed
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that link works fine here
I use the same thing toto except I get it through a different site called two minute warning
Once you go to that site, where do you go to find it?
Once you are on that site click the "NFL Bet Tracker" which is in blue letters (hyperlink) on the right of the webpage. The "NFL Bet Tracker" is below a red box with yellow lettering that reads "Point Spread Picks" and orange lettering that reads "Barrington Harry"
The "NFL Bet Tracker" will give you the information for any of the listed sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF etc)
Let me know if you found it okay or if you need some more directions.
This should be very interesting. I would like to see the stats at the end of the year.
Thanks, I would never have found it without your help.
Ill be helping out as well
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gvo gave Totolover1409 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.